2 Marshall s Economy 수확체감의법칙 (Law of Decreasing Returns) 성장의한계와부정적피드백 Companies that get ahead in a market eventually run into limitations 균형과시장분할 (market sharing) 제로섬경쟁 : 경쟁전략 (Porter 80) 이핵심 농업, 전통적제조업 경영의초점 : 자원의최적활용 (optimization)
3 Then, How to Explain? Freebies 공짜 / 무료상품의범람 원가이하의가격책정 극단적인마케팅프로모션 Open Source SUN 의공개전략 Linux Copyleft (vs. copyright) movement Sleeping with Enemy 매입과협력을통한사용자기반확대 합병을통한성장 This is a consolidating industry, and in a consolidating industry, you need scale to compete. L. Ellison (June 2003, BW p.42)
4 New Economy 수확체증의법칙 (Law of Increasing Returns, Arthur 1996) 부익부빈익빈과긍정적피드백 Companies that is ahead in a market gets further ahead. 불균형의심화와시장집중 (market cornering) Lock-in으로인한엄청난보상 Win-win 이필수 : 성장기회에대한경쟁 하이테크산업, 지식산업 경영의초점 : Next Big Thing의추구
7 Drucker s Rule 과선도진입자우위 Because the network economy favors the nimble and quick, anything requiring patience and slowness is handicapped. Yet many projects, companies, and technologies grow best gradually, slowly accommodating complexity and richness. During their gestation period they will not be able to compete with the early birds, and later, because of the law of increasing returns, they may find it difficult to compete as well. Latecomers have to follow Drucker s rule they must be ten times better than what they hope to displace. - Kevin Kelly (1998), New Rules for the New Economy, p.37
8 하이테크시장의원리 : 비선형적발달과승자독식 (Winner Takes All) Market Share 100 Tipping Point Winner 50 Battle Zone 0 Loser Time
9 Penguin Effect
10 QWERTY Story: Power of Lock-in
11 Discussion: Which world are you and your products belong to? What should you do differently than before?
12 전략적시사점 1: 긍정적피드백의구축 빠른고객기반구축이초기시장전략의핵심 Battle of the Networks 전략적파트너십을통한표준의장악 Installed Base + + Adoption Installed Base + - Adoption 긍정적피드백 부정적피드백
13 전략적시사점 2: NBT 의추구 Halls of production vs. Casino technology
14 수확체증의법칙에대한추가적논의 Caveat 1: The two worlds are not neatly split. 대부분의하이테크기업이 knowledge-based operation 과 processing-based operation 을가지고있다 Caveat 2: Not every market tips. Tipping 의두가지조건 High economies of scale Low demand for variety Caveat 3: High-tech markets also grow mature. 시스템의한계 (logistic S 자 curve) 제품의성숙화, 범용화 - 수확체증에서수확체감으로. Caveat 4: Size of network (I/B) doesn t guarantee success. 사용자네트워크의크기자체와기업가치는상관이없다 2000 년이후닷컴들의몰락
15 How to Beat Bill 부익부빈익빈의사슬을끊는마케팅전략 Innovation, 혁신만이길이다전환비용을최대한낮추라 Local Network 을공략하라파워유저 (power user) 를공략하라 Next Big Thing 에승부를걸어라
16 Google Story
18 하이테크마케팅의주요법칙들 Kelly s 12 New Rules for the New Economy Law of Connection Law of Plentitude Law of Exponential Value Law of Tipping Point Law of Increasing Returns Law of Inverse Pricing Law of Generosity Law of the Allegiance Law of Devolution Law of Displacement Law of Churn Law of Inefficiencies All are nonlinear models!!
19 Moore s Law Gordon Moore s prediction in 1965: Number of transistors on a chip doubles every year (Revised in 1975 to two years)
20 Moore s Law (cont.)
21 Moore s Law (cont.) 무어의법칙의의미와역할 What roles has it played out? (2005) 무어의법칙은끝났다?
22 황의법칙 삼성전자황창규사장의 메모리신성장론 휴대전화와디지털가전의보급확산으로메모리반도체용량이매년 2 배로커진다. (2002 년 ISSCC)
23 Metcalfe s Law Total Value to Network Number of Subscribers No of Subscribers Value to Each Total Value of Network n n-1 n(n-1)
24 Metcalfe s Law of Connectivity 네트워크의가치는네트워크에연결된노드 (node) 수의함수이며이는네트워크에연결된노드 ( 참가자 ) 의제곱에비례한다 (1985) 통신서비스가격에의시사점 기본가정 : (1) 모든사람은다른모든사람과연결되어있다 (2) 2 인커뮤니케이션만고려
25 Reed s Law New math for measuring the value of the Web (a network of networks)
26 Other High-Tech Laws Machrone s law (1984) The machine you want always costs $5,000. Rock s law The cost of capital equipment to build semiconductors will double every 4 years. Gilder s law Total bandwidth of communication systems will triple every 12 months.