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1 Distributions of Cold Surges and Their Changes in the Joongbu Region, the Republic of Korea* Youngeun Choi** Changyong Park***.,,.,,, ,,.,,,, Abstract : This paper examined distributions and changes of cold surges in the Joongbu region using the cold surge related extreme climate indicators over the Republic of Korea. Also, the relationships between indicators and global annual mean temperature and selected atmospheric indices were defined. The number of the extreme cold days, the cold wave duration index(cwdi) and the cold surge days in the western inland of the Taebaek mountain range were greater than those in the west coast region. The ice days(id), CWDI, and extreme cold days showed decreasing trends at most of stations with the abrupt decrease during 1980s to 1990s. Global annual mean temperature and arctic oscillation index(aoi) showed negative correlation with all the cold surge related indicators. Using both global annual mean temperature and AOI, R-squared value was getting higher for the Id, extreme cold days and CWDI than when only either global annual mean temperature or AOI was considered. Key Words : cold surge, extreme climate indicators, Joongbu region, global annual mean temperature, arctic oscillation index.,, (Alexander et al., 2006; Caesar et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007).., 10 * (RACS ). **, (Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Konkuk University, yechoi@konkuk.ac.kr) *** (Doctoral student, Department of Geography, Konkuk University, kpotato@konkuk.ac.kr)

2 (cold nights) (Moberg and Jones, 2005). NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) NCDC(National Climatic Data Center) ( ) ( 2009,, (33cm) 40 (-16 ) , , 50 (-29 ) ~ ( 1) (3.5 ), 12 9., 7, (, 2010a; 2010b). 25.8cm ( ), 1971~ (-1.0 ) ,,.,.... Alexander et al.(2006) 2,223 (cold nights, 10 ) ( 74%). Moberg and Jones(2005) Moberg et al.(2006) 714

3 . Vincent et al.(2005), (warm nights, 90 ). New et al.(2006) (cold days, 10 ) (warm days, 90 ).,, (frost days, 0 ) (Vincent et al., 2006),, (DeGaetano et al., 2002; Brunet et al., 2005) ,, (Beniston, M., 2004; Beniston and Diaz, 2004;, 2005;, 2005;, 2007)., (, 1989;, 1994, 1995; Boo and Lim, 1998;, 2002;, 2003; Takaya and Nakamura, 2005).,, (Choi, 2004; Choi et al., 2008)., ENSO(El Niño-Southern Oscillation), MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation) (Chen et al., 2004; Jeong and Ho, 2005; Jeong et al., 2005;, 2006; Hong and Li, 2009), ( 3) ,. 12, STARDEX (STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions) ( 1) , 1 5, ~ ,,,,,,,,,,,

(1973~2009 ) (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov). Kendall,. 0-10 (1971~2000 ) 5 6 10 4 10 NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Niño 3.

4 (1973~2009 ) ( Kendall, (1971~2000 ) NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Niño 3.4, (SOI: Southern Oscillation Index), (AO: Arctic Oscillation) (1973~2009 ) ( NOAA NCDC 1973~ (90~91 ) 56% , 13~14%.., ( 4(a))., % ( 4(b)) ,

-4.0* -3.7* -3.7** -4.7** -2.9-5.2** -4.7** -4.1** -6.1** -2.1-3.6* -3.5* -3.0* -3.7** -2.6-2.0-4.1** -1.6 * a=0.05, ** a=0.01-3.2* -4.2* -2.7-6.9** -3.7** -4.4* -3.2** -3.1-7.3** -3.8* -7.4** -1.7-4.

5 -4.0* -3.7* -3.7** -4.7** ** -4.7** -4.1** -6.1** * -3.5* -3.0* -3.7** ** -1.6 * a=0.05, ** a= * -4.2* ** -3.7** -4.4* -3.2** ** -3.8* -7.4** * ** -6.9** -1.6 * a=0.05, ** a= , , ~ ,,,, ~ %., ( 5(a))., ( 5(b)) , , ~ (,,,,, ) (1973~2009 ) 1973~ ~ , 17., ( 6(a)). 717

6 . 10 6(b).,, % , , (2.7 ), (2.5 ), (2.5 ), (1.4 ) 9 ( 4)., * -1.4** * ** ** ** * -1.7** -0.7* * a=0.05, ** a= , , ~ , 56% ( 6(c)). 718

7 42, 1987, 1992, 2000, ( 7(a)). 10 7(b) ,,, ( 5) , , * ** * 0.0 * a=0.05, ** a=

8 Niño Niño ** ** -0.55** ** -0.47** ** -0.32* ** * a=0.05, ** a=0.01 ( 6).. Niño ( 8). 17..,, 2.. ( 9). 720

9 y = _ 28.6x (r 2 = 0.57) y = _ 22.1x 1 _ 6.5x (r 2 = 0.83) y = _ 28.9x (r 2 = 0.60) y = _ 22.6x 1 _ 6.4x (r 2 = 0.85) y = _ 172.9x (r 2 = 0.59) y = _ 136.5x _ x (r 2 = 0.82) y = _ x (r 2 = 0.74) x 1 :, x 2 :,,,,,. ( 7). 7 10~13.,,, 57%, 60%, 59%, 74%.,, 83%, 85%, 82% 13~16%,. 721

10 ,.,,,,,. 4,,,

11 ,,,,,,,,,,..,, , 10,..., 2010a, Update, 235., 2010b, Update, 236., 2007,, 42(3): , 2003,, 13(1): , 2002,, 12(1): , 2006,, 27(3): , 1994,, 30(4): , 1995,, 31(4): , 1989, :, 10(2): , 2005,, 40(6): , 2005, , 38(3): Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Rupa Kumar, K., Revadekar, J., Griffiths, G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D. B., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Taylor, M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M., and Vazquez- Aguirre, J. L Global Observed Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation. Journal of Geophyicss Research 111, D05109, doi: /2005jd Beniston, M The 2003 Heat Wave in Europe. A Shape of Things to Come?. Geophysical Research Letters 31: L02022, doi: / 2003GL Beniston, M. and Diaz, H. F The Heat Wave as an Example of Summers in a Greenhouse Climate? Observations and Climate Model Simulations for Basel, Switzerland. Global and Planetary Change 44: Boo, K. and Lim, G The Characteristics of Transient Waves related to the Cold Surges in Winter over the Korean Peninsula. Korean Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 1(2): Brunet, M., Saladie, O., Jones, P. D., Sigro, J., Aguilar, E., Moberg, A., Lister, D. H., Walther, A., Lopez, 723

12 D., and Almarza, C The development of a new dataset of Spanish daily adjusted temperature series (SDATS) ( ). International Journal of Climatology 26: Caesar, J., Alexander, L., and Vose, R Large-Scale changes in Observed Dailly Maximum and Minimum Temperatures: Creation and Analysis of a New Gridded Data Set. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D05101, doi: / 2005JD Chen, T., Huang, W., and Yoon, J Interannual Variation of the East Asian Cold Surge Activity. Journal of Climate 17: Choi, Y Trends on temperature and precipitation extreme events in Korea. Journal of the Korean Geographical Society 39(5): Choi, G., Kwon, W. T., Boo, K. O., and Cha, Y. M Recent spatial and temporal changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation across the Republic of Korea. Journal of the Korean Geographical Society 43(5): DeGaetano, A. T. and Allen, R. J Trends in twentieth-century temperature extremes across the United States. Journal of Climate. 15: Easterling, D. R., Alexander, L. V., Mokssit, A., and Deemmerman, V CCI/CLIVAR workshop to develop priority climate indices. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: Hong, C. C. and Li, T The extreme cold anomaly over Southeast Asia in february 2008: roles of ISO and ENSO. Journal of Climate 22: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., Qin, D. Manning, M. Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L.(eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Jeong, J. H. and Ho, C. H Changes in occurrence of cold surges over East Asia in association with Arctic Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 32(14): L Jeong, J. H., Ho, C. H., Kim, B. M., and Kwon, W. T Influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation on wintertime surface air temperature and cold surges in East Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 110: D Michna, P. and Schuepbach, E Changes in temperature extreme indices in Switzerland STARDEX Deliverable D9 - Contribution from UNIBE: 1-9. Moberg, A., Jones, P. D., Lister, D., Walther, A., Brunet, M., Jacobeit, J., Alexander, L.V., Della-Marta, P. M., Luterbacher, J., Yiou, P., Chen, D., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Saladié, O., Sigró, J., Aguilar, E., Alexandersson, H., Almarza, C., Auer, I., Barriendos, M., Begert, M., Bergström, H., Böhm, R., Butler, C. J., Caesar, J., Drebs, A., Founda, D., Gerstengarbe, F. W., Micela, G., Maugeri, M., Österle, H., Pandzic, K., Petrakis, M., Srnec, L., Tolasz, R., Tuomenvirta, H., Werner, P. C., Linderholm, H., Philipp, A., Wanner, H., and Xopalki, E Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D22106, 724

13 DOI: /2006JD Moberg, A. and Jones, P. D Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in Central and Western Europe, International Journal of Climatology 25: New, M., Hewiston, B., Stephenson, D. B., Tsiga, A., Kruger, A., Manhique, A., Gomez, B., Coelho, C. A. S., Ntiki, D., Kululanga, E., Mbambalala, E., Adesina, F., Saleh, H., Kanyanga, J., Adosi, J., Bulane, L., Fortunata, L., Mdoka, M. L., and Lajoie, R Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and West Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D14102, DOI: /2005JD Ryoo, S., Kwon, W., and Jhun, J Characteristics of Wintertime Daily and Extreme Minimum Temperature over South Korea International Journal of Climatology 24: Takaya, K. and Nakamura, H Mechanisms of Intraseasonal Amplification of the Cold Siberian High. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 62: Vincent, L. A., Peterson, T. C., Barros, V. R., Marino, M. B., Rusticucci, M., Carrasco, E. R., Ramirez, E., Alves, L. M., Ambrizzi, T., Berlato, M. A., Grimm, A. M., Marengo, J. A., Molion, L., Moncunill, D. F., Rebello, E., Anunciação, Quintana, J., Santos, J. L., Baez, J., Coronel, G., Garcia, J., Trebejo, I., Bidegain, M., Haylock, R., and Karoly, D Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America Journal of Climate 18: Vincent, L. A. and Mekis, É Changes in Daily and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices for Canada over the Twentieth Century. Atmosphere-Ocean 44(2):

03이경미(237~248)ok

03이경미(237~248)ok The recent (2001-2010) changes on temperature and precipitation related to normals (1971-2000) in Korea* Kyoungmi Lee** Hee-Jeong Baek*** ChunHo Cho**** Won-Tae Kwon*****. 61 (1971~2000) 10 (2001~2010).