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1 [ 해외출장복명서 ] 계획지원도구개발방법론조사 국토인프라 GIS 연구본부

2 [ 목차 ] I. 출장개요 1 1. 출장목적 1 2. 출장일정 2 II. 출장중주요수행내용 3 1. UrbanSim 개발자면담 3 2. PECAS 개발자면담 8 3. MetroScope 개발자면담 Paul Waddell 교수면담 17 III. 출장결과시사점 모형개발은연구자가직접개발해야할필요가있음 장기계획과안정적인투자가필요 다양한전문가가참여하는협력체계 실제적용을통한모형검증및고도화 오픈플랫폼구축 21 [ 부록 1] Agenda for Meeting 22 [ 부록 2] UrbanSim Conference at Zurich 23 [ 부록 3] UrbanSim Conference at UC-Berkely 25 [ 부록 4] UrbanSim 구조 27

3 I. 출장개요 1. 출장목적,, (PSS: Planning Support System) UrbanSim MetroScope, PECAS [ 1] - 1 -

4 2. 출장일정 - 2 -

5 II. 출장중주요수행내용 1. UrbanSim Dr. Liming Wang UrbanSim Paul Waddell ( ), Paul Waddell 2009 UC-Berkeley( ) (Post Doc) [ 1] Wang. UrbanSim 'UrbanSim Conference'. UrbanSim UrbanSim ( ),,,, ( ) 1990 UrbanSim, , (MPO: Metropolitan Planning Organization) 1) 1) MPO (, ),. 5 MPO, (3C: Continuing, Cooperative, Comprehensive). 400 MPO,

6 (Clean Air Act),, UrbanSim UrbanSim, Amsterdam, Brussels, Detroit, Honolulu, Houston, Paris, Rome, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, Seattle, Seoul, Taipei, Tel Aviv, Zurich - NSF(National Science Foundation) UrbanSim UrbanSim, UrbanSim UrbanSim 10,,, 2005 OPUS(Open Platform for Urban Simulation) 2006, UrbanSim OPUS UrbanSim Conference? - UrbanSim Zurich, 2010 (SustainCity project) UrbanSim (MATSIM METROPOLIS) [ 2] - UC UrbanSim, UrbanSim, 40 UrbanSim ( 1 ) [ 3] - 4 -

7 ? - Salt Lake (Sierra Club Utahans for Better Transportation), UrbanSim 2) - Seattle (SR 520) 2015, UrbanSim Seattle MPO PSRC(Puget Sound Regional Council) PSRC King County, Kitsap County Snohomish County, Seattle King County -, Honolulu(Hawaii), Eugene-Springfield(Oregon), Seattle(Washington), Houston(Texas), Paris(France), San Francisco(California) UrbanSim UrbanSim Agent-based model(abm)? - MPO, - UrbanSim ABM (discrete choice model) - ABM,, UrbanSim OPUS(Open Platform for Urban Simulation)? 2) Waddell, P., G. F. Ulfarsson, et al. (2007). "Incorporating land use in metropolitan transportation planning." Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 41(5):

- UrbanSim, (resources) - OPUS - OPUS R (http://www.r-project.

8 - UrbanSim, (resources) - OPUS - OPUS R ( - OPUS, - OPUS (GUI: Graphic User Interface) ( 2) [ 2] OPUS. [Models]. [Data] OPUS - 6 -

9 [Models],, Ordinary Least Squares Maximum Likelihood (infrastructure) [Scenario] [Results], (XML: extensible Markup Language),,, - OPUS (Python),, Java 1/5 OPUS Numpy, Scipy, Matplotlib, SQLAlchemy, pyqt4 ( 4 )? - [ 2] OPUS GUI - Wang OPUS - 7 -

10 2. PECAS 개발자면담 Dr. Shengyi Gao Research Scientist, Environmental Science & Policy, UC-Davis 2006 UC-Davis, California PECAS, Southern California Area of Governments(SCAG) PECAS model, Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) PECAS model, PECAS model [ 3] PECAS Gao. Skype PECAS.. PECAS PECAS PECAS Production, Exchange, and Consumption Allocation System PECAS (Activity Allocation) (Space Development) IO (spatial input output model) (AA: Activity Allocation) - 8 -

11 - Aggregate allocation system (TAZ: Traffic Analysis Zone) TAZ - (Nested logit model) (,, ) ( ), zone( TAZ: Traffic Analysis Zone), -, -, (SD: Space Development) - AA - - TAZ Aggregate Disaggregate - [ 4] AA SD,, (, ) - 9 -

12 [ 4] AA SD. 1, PECAS UrbanSim? - PECAS UrbanSim Hedonic, PECAS TAZ 4 Activity-based

- [ 5] 3), [ 5] (E.J. Miller. P.A. Salvini. 2001. The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment(ILUTE) Microsimulation Modelling system: Description and current status.

13 - [ 5] 3), [ 5] (E.J. Miller. P.A. Salvini The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment(ILUTE) Microsimulation Modelling system: Description and current status. In: The Leading Edge in Travel Behaviour Research (D.A. Henscher, ed.), Selected Papers from the 9th International Association for Travel Behaviour Research Conference, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. UrbanSim Land allocation with price signals' 'Logit/peak-period assignment' 'Activity-based' PECAS 'Fully integrated market-based model', 'Activity-based' 3) R.A. Johnson, M.C. McCoy Assessment of Integrated Transportation/Land Use Models (Final Report). Information Center for the Environment, Department of Environmental Science & Policy. PECAS

14 - 1 UrbanSim PECAS [ 1] PECAS ( ) UrbanSim Grid Cells, Zones(TAZ), Parcel(,, Agent ), PECAS (AA) TAZ, (SD) TAZ PECAS - PECAS California PECAS, - PECAS, / /, -, PECAS S/W

3. MetroScope 개발자면담 Sonny Conder - Principal planner, Oregon Metro Dennis Yee - Chief Economist, Data Resource Center, Oregon Metro Jim Cser - Associate GIS

15 3. MetroScope 개발자면담 Sonny Conder - Principal planner, Oregon Metro Dennis Yee - Chief Economist, Data Resource Center, Oregon Metro Jim Cser - Associate GIS Specialist, Research Center, Oregon Metro Thomas Friderich - Vice President, PTV Vision Sales & Marketing, PTV [ 7]. MetroScope Sonny Conder, MetroScope Dennis Yee. PTV

MetroScope MetroScope 101 MTAC Sonny Conder MetroScope MetroScope MetroScope Oregon Metro Sonny Conder MetroScope - 1996-1999 - 2001-2005 ( ) -

16 MetroScope MetroScope 101 MTAC Sonny Conder MetroScope MetroScope MetroScope Oregon Metro Sonny Conder MetroScope ( ) R GIS PostgreSQL MetroScope (regional macro-economic model) (residential and non-residential real estate equilibrium) ( 7) [ 8] MetroScope

17 -,, (land capacity) - Metro RLIS(Regional Land Information System) Clark County,,, (Urban Growth Boundary) (land supply) MetroScope - (Urban Growth Report) Capture rate, refill rate, centers and corridors development -,,,, (square footage) -,,,,, (travel time) MetroScope aggregate data zone system (rzones: residential zones) 72 (ezones: empolyment zones) ezone rzone UrbanSim PECAS, - PTV America MetroScope - CSV,, EMME/2, Access R PostgreSQL

18 Sonny Conder [ 1] MetroScope - - MetroScope,, MetroScope -, - 3,, GIS, , - -, / - UrbanSim REMI (agent-based model, computable general equilibrium ), MetroScope R PostgreSQL, MetroScope (DVD)

19 4. Paul Waddell 교수면담 Dr. Paul Waddell UrbanSim, UrbanSim OPUS(Open Plantform for Urban Simulation) 2009 UC, UrbanSim, Paul Waddell UrbanSim [ 9] Paul Waddell.,. 1. UrbanSim, PECAS, MetroScope ( / / ),, ( ) UrbanSim Paul Waddell UrbanSim? - UrbanSim (Zone, Grid Cell, Parcel) Zone

20 -? - UrbanSim -, (contract), (gift) (indirect cost) (gift), - 3 -,? -, -, (calibration) (verification & validation) -, (Curriculum Vitae) - DBMS, Python, PostgreSQL, Quantum GIS - IO, ( ),

21 UrbanSim,,, Geometrical and behavioral modeling 4) 4) C.A. Vanegas, D.G. Aliaga, B. Benes, P.A. Waddell Interactive Design of Urban Spaces using Geometrical and Behavioral Modeling. Presented to SIGGRAPHASIA

22 III. 출장결과시사점 1. 모형개발은연구자가직접개발해야할필요가있음, (calibration) (verification & validation), 2. 장기계획과안정적인투자가필요 UrbanSim, PECAS, MetroScope 1990 (Clean Air Act Amendments, 1991) , 3. 다양한전문가가참여하는협력체계,,,,

23 4. 실제적용을통한모형검증및고도화 5. 오픈플랫폼구축 UrbanSim MetroScope R PostgreSQL

24 [ 부록 1] Agenda for Meeting

25 [ 부록 2] UrbanSim Conference Agenda at Zurich

26 - 24 -

27 [ 부록 3] UrbanSim Conference at UC-Berkely Training Session: Introduction to UrbanSim-May Tuesday, May 25, :00-10:30 Overview of UrbanSim and the Open Platform for Urban Simulation 10:30-10:45 Break Paul Waddell 10:45-12:15 Working with Zone-level Configurations of UrbanSim Paul Waddell and 12:15-1:30 Lunch Liming Wang 1:30-3:00 Preparing Synthetic Population Karthik Konduri and 3:00-3:15 Break 3:15-4:45 Working with Data: the OPUS Expression Language for Variables and Indicators 4:45-5:30 Optional Working Session to Install UrbanSim on User's Laptops 5:30 Adjourn Wednesday, May 26, 2010 Barghav Sana Paul Waddell 9:00-10:30 Working with Parcel-level Configurations of UrbanSim Liming Wang and 10:30-10:45 Break Paul Waddell 10:45-12:15 Preparing Data and Using Parcel-level Configurations Liming Wang and 12:15-1:30 Lunch Peter McNally 1:30-2:30 Accessibilities and Travel Model Interface Paul Waddell and Liming Wang 2:30-3:30 Creating New Models Paul Waddell 3:30-3:45 Break 3:45-5:00 Interactive Command-line Estimation and Diagnosis Liming Wang and 5:00 Adjourn Hana Sevcikova Urban Simulation Conference: May Thursday, May 27 8:30-9:00 Coffee and Registration 9:00-9:15 Welcome and Introductions Paul Waddell

28 9:15-10:00 Testing the PSRC Land Use Model Response to Transportation 10:00-10:45 Using UrbanSim in Operational Planning at SEMCOG 10:45-11:00 Break Mark Simonson Xuan Liu 11:15-12:00 Development of AZ-SMART: Status and Planning Anubhav Bagley 12:00-1:30 Lunch 1:30-2:15 Refining the San Francisco Model and its Aksel Olsen, Lisa Zorn integration with SF-CHAMP and Liming Wang 2:15-3:00 Modeling Complex Regions: the SEMCOG Case Peter McNally and 3:15-3:30 Break Guangu Li 3:30-4:15 Diagnosing and Refining Models Michael Jensen 4:15-5:00 Modeling Business Dynamics: Exploratory Analysis Andrea Broaddus and Tierra Bills 5:00-5:45 Modeling Demolition and Redevelopment Eddie Janowicz and 5:45 Adjourn Friday May 28 8:45-9:15 Coffee and Registration 9:15-10:00 Status Report on UrbanSim and OPUS Paul Waddell Cristian Eggleton 10:00-10:45 Interactive Model Exploring Hana Sevcikova 10:45-11:00 Break 11:15-11:45 How to Ensure that Model Applications are Maintained and Tested 11:45-12:15 Modeling Correlated Choices With Latent Lifestyle Classes 12:15-1:30 Lunch 1:30-2:15 Developing Robust Models Using Bayesian Liming Wang Fabian Wauthier, Wang and Paul Waddell Hana Sevcikova Liming Model Averaging 2:15-3:00 Modeling Parcel and Building Geometries Carlos Vanegas, Daniel 3:15-3:30 Break 3:30-4:15 Endogeneity and Sampling of Alternatives in Spatial Choice Models 4:15 Wrapup Session: Plans, Prospects and Priorities ~ 4:45 Adjourn Aliaga, Bedrich Benes and Paul Waddell Cristian Guevara, by Paul Waddell Discussion Session presented

29 [ 부록 4] OPUS 구조

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<3136C1FD31C8A35FC3D6BCBAC8A3BFDC5F706466BAAFC8AFBFE4C3BB2E687770> 부동산학연구 제16집 제1호, 2010. 3, pp. 117~130 Journal of the Korea Real Estate Analysts Association Vol.16, No.1, 2010. 3, pp. 117~130 비선형 Mankiw-Weil 주택수요 모형 - 수도권 지역을 대상으로 - Non-Linear Mankiw-Weil Model on Housing