Risk Simulator 2012 User Manual - Korean

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3 ? /2012 Risk Simulator ? User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

4 Box-Jenkins ARIMA Auto ARIMA (Box-Jenkins ARIMA ) J-S GARCH (Markov Chains) (MLE: Logit, Tobit, Probit) Spline (Cubic Spline Interpolation and Extrapolation/) : Boot Strap Risk Simulator 2011/ , Deseasonalize Detrend User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

5 Trendline : ROV BizStats Goal Seek (Optimizer Goal Seek) (Single Variable Optimizer / ) (Genetic Algorithm Optimization) ROV Decision Tree Simulation Modeling Bayes Analysis Expected Value of Perfect Information, MINIMAX and MAXIMIN Analysis, Risk Profiles, and Value of Imperfect Information,,, Sensitivity Scenario Tables Utility Function Generation : ( ) : / : : :, : : : : : : ARIMA User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

6 : : Basic Econometrics : : Logit, Probit, and Tobit : : Stochastic Processes : : Trendlines : : : ID : (LHS) (MCS) : : : : : : : (SDK) DLL : Risk Simulator : : Tornado Analysis : Troubleshooter User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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12 Risk Simulator 1. 11,,,,. 2. ROV.. o o o o o ( ) o o MINIMAX o MAXIMIN o 3. 10,, Risk Simulator Risk Simulator 9. Window 7, Vista, XP ; 2010, 2007, 2003 ; virtual machine MAC OS 10. User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

13 11. Risk Simulator /2010. (1280 x 760 ). 15. Risk Simulator 16. ROV Real Options SLS, Modeling Toolkit, Basel Toolkit, ROV Compiler, ROV Extractor and Evaluator, ROV Modeler, ROV Valuator, ROV Optimizer, ROV Dashboard, ESO Valuation Toolkit ROV 17. RS RS Simulation Module ROV Advanced Subtractive Generator, Subtractive Random Shuffle Generator, Long Period Shuffle Generator, Portable Random Shuffle Generator, Quick IEEE Hex Generator, Basic Minimal Portable Generator Monte Carlo Latin Hypercube Correlation Copulas Normal Copula, T Copula, and Quasi-Normal Copula Arcsine, Bernoulli, Beta, Beta 3, Beta 4, Binomial, Cauchy, Chi-Square, Cosine, Custom, Discrete Uniform, Double Log, Erlang, Exponential, Exponential 2, F Distribution, Gamma, Geometric, Gumbel Max, Gumbel Min, Hypergeometric, Laplace, Logistic, Lognormal (Arithmetic) and Lognormal (Log), User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

14 Lognormal 3 (Arithmetic) and Lognormal 3 (Log), Negative Binomial, Normal, Parabolic, Pareto, Pascal, Pearson V, Pearson VI, PERT, Poisson, Power, Power 3, Rayleigh, T and T2, Triangular, Uniform, Weibull, Weibull , ARIMA ARIMA. 34. (linear, nonlinear, interacting, lag, leads, rate, difference). 35. / GARCH volatility projection: GARCH, GARCH-M, TGARCH, TGARCH-M, EGARCH, EGARCH-T, GJR- GARCH, GJR-TGARCH 38. J- 39. Logit, Probit, Tobit (forward, backward, correlation, forward-backward) S S Trendlines linear, nonlinear polynomial, power, logarithmic, exponential, moving average. 46. (,,, ) 47. User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

15 Hessian matrices, LaGrange function Check Model 60. Correlation Editor 61. Create Report 62. Create Statistics Report 63. Data Diagnostics heteroskedasticity, micronumerosity, outliers, nonlinearity, autocorrelation, normality, sphericity, nonstationarity, multicollinearity, correlations 64. Data Extraction and Export Risk Sim 65. Data Open and Import 66. Deseasonalization and Detrending deasonalize detrend 67. Distributional Analysis 42 PDF, CDF, ICDF 68. Distributional Designer User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

16 69. Distributional Fitting (Multiple) 70. Distributional Fitting (Single) Kolmogorov-Smirnov Chi- Square, 71. Hypothesis Testing 72. Nonparametric Bootstrap 73. Overlay Charts (CDF, PDF, 2D/3D). 74. Principal Component Analysis 75. Scenario Analysis 76. Seasonality Test 77. Segmentation Clustering 78. Sensitivity Analysis 79. Structural Break Test 80. Tornado Analysis spider tornado BizStats 81. Percentile Distributional Fitting 82. Probability Distributions Charts and Tables 45, moment, CDF, ICDF, PDF,,. 83. Statistical Analysis 84. ROV BIZSTATS 130 : Absolute Values, ANOVA: Randomized Blocks Multiple Treatments, ANOVA: Single Factor Multiple Treatments, ANOVA: Two Way Analysis, ARIMA, Auto ARIMA, Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation, Autoeconometrics (Detailed), Autoeconometrics (Quick), Average, Combinatorial Fuzzy Logic Forecasting, Control Chart: C, Control Chart: NP, Control Chart: P, Control Chart: R, Control Chart: U, Control Chart: X, Control Chart: XMR, Correlation, Correlation (Linear, Nonlinear), Count, Covariance, Cubic Spline, Custom Econometric Model, Data Descriptive Statistics, Deseasonalize, Difference, Distributional Fitting, Exponential J User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

17 Curve, GARCH, Heteroskedasticity, Lag, Lead, Limited Dependent Variables (Logit), Limited Dependent Variables (Probit), Limited Dependent Variables (Tobit), Linear Interpolation, Linear Regression, LN, Log, Logistic S Curve, Markov Chain, Max, Median, Min, Mode, Neural Network, Nonlinear Regression, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Goodness of Fit, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Independence, Nonparametric: Chi-Square Population Variance, Nonparametric: Friedman s Test, Nonparametric: Kruskal-Wallis Test, Nonparametric: Lilliefors Test, Nonparametric: Runs Test, Nonparametric: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (One Var), Nonparametric: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank (Two Var), Parametric: One Variable (T) Mean, Parametric: One Variable (Z) Mean, Parametric: One Variable (Z) Proportion, Parametric: Two Variable (F) Variances, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Dependent Means, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Independent Equal Variance, Parametric: Two Variable (T) Independent Unequal Variance, Parametric: Two Variable (Z) Independent Means, Parametric: Two Variable (Z) Independent Proportions, Power, Principal Component Analysis, Rank Ascending, Rank Descending, Relative LN Returns, Relative Returns, Seasonality, Segmentation Clustering, Semi-Standard Deviation (Lower), Semi-Standard Deviation (Upper), Standard 2D Area, Standard 2D Bar, Standard 2D Line, Standard 2D Point, Standard 2D Scatter, Standard 3D Area, Standard 3D Bar, Standard 3D Line, Standard 3D Point, Standard 3D Scatter, Standard Deviation (Population), Standard Deviation (Sample), Stepwise Regression (Backward), Stepwise Regression (Correlation), Stepwise Regression (Forward), Stepwise Regression (Forward-Backward), Stochastic Processes (Exponential Brownian Motion), Stochastic Processes (Geometric Brownian Motion), Stochastic Processes (Jump Diffusion), Stochastic Processes (Mean Reversion with Jump Diffusion), Stochastic Processes (Mean Reversion), Structural Break, Sum, Time-Series Analysis (Auto), Time-Series Analysis (Double Exponential Smoothing), Time-Series Analysis (Double Moving Average), Time-Series Analysis (Holt-Winter s Additive), Time-Series Analysis (Holt-Winter s Multiplicative), Time-Series Analysis (Seasonal Additive), Time-Series Analysis (Seasonal Multiplicative), Time-Series Analysis (Single Exponential Smoothing), Time-Series Analysis (Single Moving Average), Trend Line (Difference Detrended), Trend Line (Exponential Detrended), Trend Line (Exponential), Trend Line (Linear Detrended), Trend Line (Linear), Trend Line (Logarithmic Detrended), Trend Line (Logarithmic), Trend Line (Moving Average Detrended), Trend Line (Moving Average), Trend Line (Polynomial Detrended), Trend Line (Polynomial), Trend Line (Power Detrended), Trend Line (Power), Trend Line (Rate Detrended), Trend Line (Static Mean Detrended), Trend Line (Static Median Detrended), Variance (Population), Variance (Sample), Volatility: EGARCH, Volatility: EGARCH-T, Volatility: GARCH, Volatility: GARCH-M, Volatility: GJR GARCH, Volatility: GJR TGARCH, Volatility: Log Returns Approach, Volatility: TGARCH, Volatility: TGARCH-M, Yield Curve (Bliss), and Yield Curve (Nelson-Siegel). User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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20 1. User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc. ( 1,000 ) ( ) ( )

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32 r x, y n x 2 i n xi yi xi yi 2 2 x i nyi y i 2 User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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36 s s x Z Z n n x User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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38 1 1 = 2 2 Skew = 0 KurtosisXS = User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

39 2 1 Skew = 0 KurtosisXS = 0 Stock prices 1 = 2 Time User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

40 1 = 2 Skew < 0 KurtosisXS = = 2 Skew > 0 KurtosisXS = User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

41 1 = 2 Skew = 0 Kurtosis > 0 1 = 2 Figure User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

42 FORECASTING QUANTITATIVE QUALITATIVE Delphi Method Expert Opinions Management Assumptions Market Research Polling Data Surveys CROSS-SECTIONAL Econometric Models Monte Carlo Simulation Multiple Regression Statistical Probabilities Use Risk Simulator s Forecast Tool for ARIMA, Classical Decomposition, Multivariate Regressions, Nonlinear Regressions, Simulations and Stochastic Processes MIXED PANEL ARIMA(X) Multiple Regression Use Risk Simulator to run Monte Carlo Simulations (use distributional fitting or nonparametric custom distributions) TIME-SERIES ARIMA Classical Decomposition (8 Time-Series Models) Multivariate Regression Nonlinear Extrapolation Stochastic Processes User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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45 No Seasonality With Seasonality No Trend Single Moving Average Single Exponential Smoothing Seasonal Additive Seasonal Multiplicative With Trend Double Moving Average Double Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter's Additive Holt-Winter's Multiplicative User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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48 RMSE MSE MAD MAPE 4.50% Theil's U User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

49 Y 1 0 X n n Y Y Y 1 Y 2 X X Yˆ User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

50 Min n i1 2 ( Y i Yˆ i ) n n d ˆ 2 d ( Yi Yi ) 0 and ( Yi d 0 i1 d1 i1 1 n i1 Y X 0 ( Xi X)( Yi Y) n 2 ( X X) i1 1 i n i1 n i1 XY i i X 2 i Yˆ ) n i1 n i1 X n i n X i n 2 0 Y i i i1 Yi 1 2 X 2, i 3 X 3, i i ˆ X X X X X X X X 2 i 2, i 3, i i 3, i 2, i 3, i 2 2 2, i 3, i 2, i 3, i ˆ YX X YX X X YX X YX X X i 3, i 2, i i 2, i 2, i 3, i 3 2 2, i 3, i 2, i 3, i User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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52 X1 X2 X3 X4 X ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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61 AR(1) MA(1) User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

62 (0.0958) (0.0105) (0.0958) (0.0109) (0.0958) , (0.0142) (0.0958) , (0.0098) (0.0958) , (0.0113) (0.0958) , (0.0124) (0.0958) , (0.0147) (0.0958) , (0.0121) (0.0958) , (0.0139) (0.0958) , (0.0049) (0.0958) , (0.0068) (0.0958) , (0.0097) (0.0958) , (0.0087) (0.0958) , (0.0064) (0.0958) , (0.0056) (0.0958) , (0.0062) (0.0958) , (0.0038) (0.0958) , (0.0003) (0.0958) , (0.0958) , (0.2056) (0.3069) (0.5586) (0.4948) (0.5339) (1.3587) (0.5466) (0.5447) (0.8451) (0.2946) (0.6663) (0.4823) (0.6726) (0.3775) (0.5231) (0.9738) (0.5377) (0.4513) (0.6939) (0.2311) (0.3065) (0.3709) (0.5561) (0.4532) (0.4784) (0.1966) (0.3692) (0.5582) (0.4605) (0.1176) (0.2891) (0.8066) (0.4501) (0.4255) (0.8382) (0.1819) User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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67 z t ~ Normal GARCH-M 2 yt c t t t tzt GARCH-M yt ct t t tzt GARCH-M 2 y c ln( ) t tzt t t 1 t t t 1 t1 t t t t t1 t1 z t ~ T 2 yt c t t t tzt yt ct t t tzt 2 y c ln( ) t tzt t t 1 t t t 1 t1 t t t t t1 t1 User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

68 GARCH EGARCH y t x t t y t ln 2 t z t t t t 2 t1 2 t1 2 2 t ln t 1 E( ) r t1 t1 t t1 t 1 2 E( t ) y t z t t t t y ln t t1 t1 t z t t t t 2 2 t ln t 1 E( ) r t1 t1 t t1 t (( 1)/2) E( t ) ( 1) ( /2) GJR-GARCH y t z 2 2 t t1 2 2 t1 t1 t1 t1 t t t t r d d 1if t1 0 otherwise y t z 2 2 t t1 2 2 t1 t1 t1 t1 t t t t r d d 1if t1 0 otherwise User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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73 Cubic Spline Module User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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77 R P R A A R B B R C C R D D User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

78 i n m 2 2 P i i 2 i j i, j i1 i1 j1 User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc. i j

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101 Alpha Beta User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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106 Statistical Summary Result User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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109 oduct A Avg Price/Unit Product B Avg Price/Unit oduct C Avg Price/Unit $C$12 $C$13 $C$14 -Infinity -Infinity -Infinity Infinity Infinity Infinity Investment Outlay Investment Outlay A Sale Quantity ('000s) $C$36 $E$36 $C$15 -Infinity -Infinity -Infinity Infinity Infinity Infinity Net Present Value $G$ % % % ntermediate X Variable $C$ % % % VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR VAR User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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112 W- p-value p-value Y X X X X X User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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114 ...,,,, ( 3 2,2 1 ).. ARIMA.( l larima).,. ( ) AC(1),. AC(k),. AC(k),. PAC(k) k. k,k. k Ljung-Box Q- p k.. 5%. Y., Y X., ( 1 3)., (,, 12 ).. Autocorrelation Time Lag AC PAC Lower Bound Upper Bound Q-Stat Prob Distributive Lags P-Values of Distributive Lag Periods of Each Independent Variable Variable X X X X X User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

115 0.00 O-E D % D % D % D : : 1% User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

116 . ( ),,, Jump-diffusion.. ( l l ) % % Jump 20.41% 88.84% Jump : 46.48%. Runs P-Value (1-tail) P-Value (2-tail) Run 26 p (0.10, 0.05, 0.01 ), ARIMA., p. User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

117 COVx, y Rx, y s s x y User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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120 4 (, 2..).. (,,, ),,... %., %.. 50%, 50%.....,..,,,.. (,, ),..,..., ( ). 1 25%. 3 75% ( 3.0 ). 0.. (,,, ). Variable X ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) (Q3) User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

121 Statistics from Dataset: : 50 t-statistic Sample P-Value (right-tail) Sample P-Value (left-tailed) P-Value (two-tailed) : (Ho): = 0.00 (Ha): < > Notes: "<>" ' ', ' ' ' ' - t- (t- 30 ). t- :,.. Ho..t-, p ( 0.10, 0.05, 0.01), 10%, 5% 1% ( 90%, 95%, 99% )., p 0.10, 0.05, 0.01,,. Ho.. t-, p ( 0.10, 0.05, 0.01), 10%, 5% 1% ( 90%, 95% 99% )., p 0.10, 0.05, 0.01,. Ho.. t-, p ( 0.10, 0.05, 0.01), 10%, 5% 1% ( 90%, 95% 99% )., p 0.10, 0.05, 0.01,,., t- Z- t-. User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

122 .. p alpha. p alpha. :,... Relative Data Frequency Observed Expected O-E D D Critical at 1% D Critical at 5% D Critical at 10% : Conclusion: The sample data is normally distributed at the 1% alpha level ( ),,, Jump-diffusion.,.. ( l ) (Annualized) Drift Rate -1.48% Reversion Rate % Jump Rate 20.41% Volatility 88.84% Long-Term Value Jump Size : 46.48% User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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128 2001/ (Random Number Generators), 3 Correlation Copulas Simulation Sampling Risk Simulator Options Random Number Generator (RNG, ) ROV Risk Simulator proprietary ROV Risk Simulator default Advanced Subtractive Random Shuffle Correlations Normal Copula, T-Copula, Quasi-Normal copula 3.,, Normal Copula. t-copula quasi-normal copula Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) Copulas,, LHS. LHS User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

129 ..,., LHS., LHS., MCS LHS ( ) ( ). Figure 5.41 Risk Simulator Options deseasonalize detrend (Figure 5.42).,., User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

130 Detrend (,, ). (, 24, 12, 4, 60, ). deseasonalize detrend (Deseasonalization and Detrending): (: B9:B28) Risk Simulator Tools Data Deseasonalization and Detrending Deseasonalize Data Detrend Data detrending, (: polynomial order, moving average order, difference order, and rate order) OK,,, deseasonalized/detrended. (Deseasonalization and Detrending): (: B9:B28) Risk Simulator Tools Data Seasonality Test : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.,,, User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

131 ( RMSE ) : root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) Figure 5.42 Deseasonalization and Detrending Data Principal Component Analysis, (Figure 5.43).,.,... : (: B11:K30), Risk Simulator Tools Principal Component Analysis OK User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

132 Figure 5.43 Principal Component Analysis Structural Break (Figure 5.44).,. Structural Break Test ( Structural Break Test : 10, 30, , , ) (H a ) 0.01, 0.05, 0.10, 1%, 5%, 10% User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

133 : (: B15:D34), Risk Simulator Tools Structural Break Test OK.. Figure 5.44 Structural Break Analysis User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

134 Trendline (Figure 5.45). (exponential, logarithmic, moving average, power, polynomial, or power ). : Risk Simulator Forecasting Trendline trendline (: ), (: 6 periods), OK. trendline. Figure 5.45 Trendline Forecasts User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

135 , Model Checking Tool (Figure 5.46). Risk Simulator Tools Check Model Risk Simulator Figure 5.46 Model Checking Tool User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

136 Percentile Distributional Fitting tool (Figure 5.47) Distributional Fitting ()., Distributional Fitting () Distributional Fitting () Custom Distribution () : Risk Simulator Tools Distributional Fitting (Percentiles) Run R-square User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

137 Figure 5.47 Percentile Distributional Fitting Tool (Figures ). Risk Simulator Distributional Analysis Risk Simulator PDF, CDF, ICDF Distributional Charts and Tables (: [2, 2], [3, 5], [3.5, 8] PDF, CDF, ICDF ). Overlay Charts (: [2, 2], [3, 5], [3.5, 8] PDF, CDF, ICDF ). User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

138 : Risk Simulator Distributional Charts and Table ROV BizStats Apply Global Inputs Run CDF, ICDF, PDF 45 (Figure 5.48). Figure 5.48 Probability Distribution Tool (45 Probability Distributions) Charts and Tables tab (Figure 5.49), [A] (: Arcsine), CDF, ICDF, PDF [B], click Run Chart Run Table [C]. [E] From/To/Step Custom Run [H] User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

139 Figure 5.50, PDF [G], [I] [H], : 2;5;5, 5;3;5 [J] Run Chart [K]: (2,5), (5,3), (5,5) [L]. [M], [N]. Figure 5.51 ( X) From/To/Step [O], Table tab [P], 0., 0.25,, 0.50 row variable 0, 1, 2,, 8 variable = 20, = 0.5, X = 10 PDF., 25% % User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

140 Figure 5.49 ROV Probability Distribution (PDF and CDF Charts) Figure 5.50 ROV Probability Distribution (Multiple Overlay Charts) User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

141 Figure 5.51 ROV Probability Distribution (Distribution Tables) User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

142 ROV BizStats Risk Simulator,, 130 (Figures ).. : Risk Simulator ROV BizSta, ROV BizStats [A] Example [D] (Figure 5.52). Notes row [C]. Step 2 [F], [G] [H]. [J]Run [I] Step 4 [L]. [M], [N], *.bizstats [O] : [S][A] [J] [T/U] [G] User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

143 [H] [D] [P] Command console [V/W/X]., [S] Command console [V]., Run Command [X] Console *.bizstats ( ) XML XML [Z], Auto Fit, Cut, Copy, Delete, Paste., Visualiz.,. (,, auto fit ). Home End. : Ctrl+Home ( ), Ctrl+End ( ), Shift+Up/Down ( ) Notes.. User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

144 Visualize (:,, /,, ) Copy 3 Results, Charts, Statistics. copy. Report 4.. Microsoft Excel, Microsoft PowerPoint., Example Language View drop list.,,. (:,, ). (: 50 1, , ,50 ). ROV BizStats English USA, ROV BizStats North America 1, ( ROV BizStats ). User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

145 Figure 5.52 ROV BizStats (Statistical Analysis) Figure 5.53 ROV BizStats (Data Visualization and Results Charts) User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

146 Figure 5.54 ROV BizStats (Command Console) Figure 5.55 ROV BizStats (XML Editor) User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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155 User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

156 User Manual (Risk Simulator Software) Real Options Valuation, Inc.

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