03-E-116?1穩茱

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1 *...,, (discount)......, *

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4 ..,,. (, ) ( ). ).....,,,..,...,, 1),,,,, ( :, 1996), p. 58.

5 ....,.. ).. ).. ). ).. ), ). )., 2) Adam B. Ulam, Expansion and Coexistence: Soviet Foreign Policy, , 2nd ed. (New York: Praeger Publisher, 1974), p (the doctrine of limited sovereignty). Henry Kissinger, White House Years (Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1979), p ) Ulam, Expansion and Coexistence, p ) ( ), (Kissinger, White House Years, p. 166).. 5) Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1994), p ) Kissinger, White House Years, pp. 171, ) Ibid., p ) Ibid., p. 186.

6 ..,. ).... (containment policy)....., 9) Kissinger, Diplomacy, p. 728.

7 ..,.,,......, ( ), )....,. 10) Kissinger, Diplomacy, p

8 ,,. )... ),,.,..,. IMF GATT. ),. ). 11) Franz H. Michael and George E. Taylor, The Far East in the Modern World (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., 1964), pp , ) H. Lyman Miller, The Limits of Chinese-Russian Strategic Collaboration, Strategic Insights Vol I, Issue 7 (Sept. 2002), Center for Contemporary Conflict, sept02/eastasia2.asp. 13) Robert Gilpin, The Politics of Transnational Economic Relations, Geroge T. Crane and Abla Amawi, eds., The Theoretical Evolution of Internaltional Political Economy, 2nd ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), p ) Ibid.

9 %.. %. %. )... %. %. %,. ),,,,. ).,. 15),,, pp ( : Statistics Bureau Management and Coordination Agency, Japan Statistical Yearbook, 1985). 16),,. 17) Lester Thurow, Fortune Favors the Bold (New York: HarperCollins Publisher, 2003), p. 238.

10 .,..... ).,,,... )...,,. ) 18),, p ),, Vol. 16, ,, pp. 69, ),,, 13, , p. 11.

11 .. ), %. ), %.. )... -.,,. ).,.. ), ) (KITA), ( Eswar Prasad and Shang-Jin Wei, The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Pattern and Possible Explanations, IMF Working Paper WP/05/79 (April 2005), p ),, 12/1 ( ), p. 290, 1). 23) Ibid. 24) (KITA),. 25) Ibid.

12 . ( ). )..? %. %. ).,, %. ) (Lester Thurow),. )... ( ). 26) Ibid. 27) Ibid. 28) Ibid. 29) 17).

13 (d5tente)......, UN,......

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15 ,,,,.,.. ),,?,.,.,,.,,,,,,,,,,. ) 30) SIPRI, The SIPRI Military Expenditure Database php. SIPRI. 31) : Center for Defense Information, U.S. Military Spending, , issues/milspend.html. : Center for Defense Information, Last of the Big Time Spenders, cdi.org /issues/wme/spenders.html.

16 ,.,.., (peaceful evolution). ), (economic growth), (territorial integrity), (regime security), (favorable strategic balance), (international influence). ),..,,,.. ).,.,. 32) Wu Xinbo, China: Security Practice of a Modernizing and Ascending Power, Muthiah Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Practice: Material and Ideational Influences (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1998), p ) Ibid., p ) Ibid., p. 131.

17 , (peaceful evolution),, (social instability). ) ,.. (Bill Clinton)... )?.. 35) Ibid., pp ) The US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Report, September 30, 2001, www. defenselink.mil/pubs/qdr2001.pdf., p. 4.

18 ..,.., %, %.. ). ).. NMD(National Missile Defense) TMD(Theater Missile Defense). ) MD(Missile Defense),.,. ), TMD. 37),,, ),, 10/2, 2004,, p ) United States Department of Defense, Missile Defense: History of the Missile Defense Organization, 40) Victor Cha, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, and Stability, Muthiah Alagappa, ed., Asian Security Order: Instrument and Normative Feature (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003), p (interceptor).

19 TMD. TMD TMD. ) TMD.,. TMD. NMD, TMD, TMD TMD. ) (Navy Theater).. MD,,. ).., (Kazakhstan), (Tajikistan), (Turkmenistan), (Kyrgyzstan), (Uzbekistan) (Afghanistan).. ) 41) Sugio Tkahashi, The Japanese Perception of the Information Technology-Revolution in Military Affairs: Toward a Defense Information-Based Transformation, Goldman, Emily O., and Thomas G. Mahnken, eds., The Information Revolution in Military Affairs in Asia (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2004), pp ) Cha, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, and Stability, p ) Ibid. p ) Richard Giragosian, The US Military Engagement in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus: An Overview, Journal of Slavic Military Studies 17, 2004, pp

20 ..,,. ), (a form of encirclement). ),.. ),,. ) (open flank) ( ). ).,, ),. 45) Ibid., p ) Charles William Maynes, America Discovers Central Asia, Foreign Affairs March/April 2003, p ) Ibid. 48) Stephen Blank, Central Asia and the Transformation of Asia s Strategic Geography, The Journal of East Asian Affairs 17/2, July 2003, pp ) Ibid., p Thomas M. Kane, Chinese Grand Strategy and Maritime Power (London: Frank Cass Publishers, 2001), pp ) The US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Report, p. 4.

21 (challenging area),. )..., (bandwagon). )..,..,. ). MD.. 51) Ibid. 52) Christopher P. Twomey, Japan, A Circumscribed Balancer: Building on Defensive Realism to Make Predictions about East Asian Security, Security Studies 9/4, Summer 2004, p ) Henry Kissinger, Does America Need a Foreign Policy? Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st Century (New York: A Touchstone Book, 2001), p. 125.

22 .,. %...,,....,...,. ),, ),. ). %. 54) (KITA),. 55), 1 105, ),,,

23 .,,,. ) (Japan bashing), ),. %. ). - (Schumer-Graham),. %.. )... ) %.. % 57) (KITA), ( 58) Jagdish N. Bhagwati, VERs, QUID PRO QUO DFI and VIEs: Political-Economy-Theoretic Analyses, International Economic Journal 1(1987). 59) (KITA),. 60) (Joseph Stiglitz) ( ):, -, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2006, p ) Chad P. Bown, Meredith A. Crowley, Rachel McCulloch, and Daisuke J. Nakajima, The U.S. trade deficit: Made in China? Economic Perspectives 4Q/2005, pp. 3-4.

24 . ) (FRB). ).,,..,.,,,,,. ), %. ).,. ). ). ) ) Ibid., p ) Ibid., p ) (KITA),. 65),,, 2006/10/21. 66), 1,, 2006/10/19. 67),,, 2007/11/21. 68) Andrew Sheng, Why Asia needs to integrate its financial markets, Financial Times, Dec. 2, 2005.

25 . ). %., (pegged). ( ). ). (Bernanke).,. (sustainable). )...,.. ) 69) The Economist, The dragon and the eagle, Sep 30th 2004, The Economist print edition, p. 2 ( 70) The Economist, A fair exchange? Sep 30th 2004, The Economist print edition, p. 1 (www. economist.com/surveys). 71) The Economist, A topsy-turvy world, Sep 14th 2006, The Economist print edition, p. 2 ( 72) Ibid.

26 .,.,..,...,. )...,. ) GDP / /. ). 73) (KITA), ( 74)., (macroeconomic policies), Bown, The U.S. trade deficit: Made in China? p ), :,, No. 76, 2006/02/09.

27 .,? ) :. (military security),... )... ) (leverage)? %..,.. ). ). 76) The Economist, Playing leapfrog, Sep 14th 2006, The Economist print edition, p. 1 (www. economist.com/surveys). 77) Ibid. 78) The US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Report, p ) The Economist, The great thrift shift, Sep 22nd 2005, The Economist print edition, p. 5 ( 80) Ronald I. Mckinnon, The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2001, No. 1. (2001), p. 228.

28 . %.. ) ( ),. )....,.. )..,.. 81) The Economist, Forever free, Sep 22nd 2005, The Economist print edition, p. 2 ( com/surveys). 82) Mckinnon, The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the U.S. Current Account Deficit, p ) The Economist, The frugal giant, Sep 22nd 2005, The Economist print edition, p. 5 (www. economist.com/surveys).

29 ...., (bandwagon),...,,. (submissive)...,.....

30 .. (discount)..,.,.., , :..

31 . ( ), (geopolitical risk).. ).,,..,,.....,..,.,.,. 84) The Economist, Playing leapfrog, p. 2.

32 ,.,,..

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<30315FB1E2C8B9B3EDB4DC2832303133B0A1C0BBC8A3295FB1E8C1DFC8A32E687770> 기 획 논 단 한반도 신뢰 프로세스의 작동 환경 분석 - G2시대의 새로운 동북아시아 질서를 중심으로 김 중 호 * Ⅰ. 서 론 Ⅱ. 한반도 신뢰 프로세스의 내용과 특징 Ⅲ. 동북아 안보환경과 한반도 신뢰 프로세스 Ⅳ. 동북아 경제환경과 한반도 신뢰 프로세스 Ⅴ. 결 론 요 약 이 글은 동북아시아의 안보 경제 환경을 분석함으로써 박근혜 정부가 내세운 한반도