DBPIA-NURIMEDIA

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1 Atmosphere. Korean Meteorological Society Vol. 20, No. 4 (2010) pp kt p 1)Á«x 2), *Á½ 2) 1)» ƒkt l 2) œ w» w /kt l ( : , : , y : ) Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific in 2009 Eun-Jeong Cha 1), H. Joe Kwon 2), *, and Sejin Kim 2) 1) National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration 2) Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Kongju National University (Received : 10 March 2010, Revised : 8 October 2010, Accepted : 25 November 2010) Abstract : This edition has continued since 2006 tropical cyclone season our effort to provide standard tropical cyclone summaries by the western North Pacific basin and detailed reviews of operationally or meteorologically significant tropical cyclones to document significant challenges and shortfalls in the tropical cyclone warning system to serve as a focal point for research and development efforts. The tropical cyclone season of 2009 in the western North Pacific basin is summarized and the main characteristics of general atmospheric circulation are described. Also, the official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are verified. The total number is less than 59-year (1951~2009) average frequency of The 2009 western North Pacific season was an inactive one, in which 22 tropical storms generated. Of these, 13 TCs reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest 9 TCs only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - three STS and six TS storms. On average of 22 TCs in 2009, the Korea Meteorological Administration official track forecast error for 48 hours was 219 km. There was a big challenge for individual cyclones such as 0902 CHAN-HOM, 0909 ETAU, and 0920 LUPIT resulting in significant forecast error, with both intricate tracks and irregular moving speed. There was no tropical cyclone causing significant direct impact to the country. The tropical cyclone season in 2009 began in May with the formation of KUJIRA (0901). In September and October, ten TSs formed in the western North Pacific in response to enhanced convective activity. On the other hand, the TC activity was very weak from June to July. It is found that the unusual anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower level and weak convection near the Philippines are dominant during summertime. The convection and atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific contributed unfavorable condition for TC activity in the 2009 summertime. Year 2009 has continued the below normal condition since mid 1990s which is apparent in the decadal variability in TC activity. Keywords : Tropical cyclone activity, Official forecast error, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Decadal variability Corresponding Author: H. Joe Kwon, Department of Atmospheric Sciences/ Typhoon Research Center, Kongju National University, Kongju, Chungnam, Republic of Korea. Phone : , Fax :

2 kt p 1. w ks kt» 26~27 ƒ w ù j. kt ù 3~4 ƒ w kt w vw 6~9. kt ƒ - v v,, pû w w» wš, ew ù ù» y» x y ƒ vw w» w (», 2005;, 2007). ù z ù w Á vw w k t s kt ƒ š, ù w w kt» w kt w kt, kt y, kt» p w w ƒ p kt y s ww ks w kt p, kt y w y w»z p w ww» kt w œ w. 2» w» y w p w š, 3 kt p, 4 y, 5 kty» p, 6 w » y w p kt,,, ¾» y w p w.»»z y l ( tw»z y l»z l»»z l ( (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2009)ƒ w y : -û (El Niño- Southern Oscillation, ENSO) w y w w r û w r. w ƒ ù, w. ks w (NINO 3, 4 N~4 S, 150 W~90 W) w r (Sea surface temperature anomaly, SSTA) l (+)r ë. z (+)r ƒ š, C w. w 5 s³ SSTA l 6 w +0.5 C w x» w (Table 1). û (Southern Oscillation Index, SOI) ûks k p (Tahiti) p (Darwin)» s r. ƒ (+)r» ƒ jš û t w k ( ÿ k) š, ( )r t w k ( k). 6 w w r s³ 0.0 C, û 0.0 (Table 1). 6 ks w (+)r š,»wd tr ƒ w. p 12 ¾ l 12 ¾ SSTA SOI s w x w ¾ w ƒ w ks w x Fig. 1 ks j x ùkû. x kt w Table 1. SST, SSTA, and SOI in Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. NINO 3 SSTA ( C) SSTA ( C) Five month running mean SSTA ( C) SOI w» wz» 20«4y (2010)

3 차은정 권혁조 김세진 453 The monthly distribution of SST (shaded) and SST anomaly (contour) from May to November The ( )is denoted the genesis position of tropical cyclone each month. The unit is C. Zero contour is suppressed. Fig. 1. o 부는 보다 면밀한 분석이 필요하지만, 일반적으로 전 형적인 엘니뇨에 비해 더 서쪽해역까지 영향을 미치 는 것으로 알려져 있다. 실제로 중앙태평양 (날짜변경 선의 서쪽) 고수온현상이 뚜렷해지는 8월부터는 열대 서태평양의 동부 (동경 140 의 동쪽)에서 대류활동이 활발하였고, 8~9월에 고수온대가 북쪽으로 확장되면 서 필리핀 주변해역보다 북쪽해상 (북위20 의 북쪽)과 동쪽해상 (동경 140 동쪽)에서 태풍이 자주 발생하 였는데, 특히 강한 태풍이 많이 발생하였다 (Table 5 의 10, 14, 18, 21, 22호 태풍). 남중국해와 동중국해 의 해수면온도는 8월과 9월에는 평년에 비해 다소 높 았으나 그 외 기간은 낮았다. 한편, 한반도 주변 해역 의 해수면온도는 동중국해와 다른 양상을 보였다. 7 월과 8월에는 해수면온도가 평년보다 낮았으며, 9월 은 한반도 남서 해역에서 고수온 상태를 보이다가 11 월까지 주변 전해역에서 해수면온도가 높은 상태로 유지되었다. 적도지역 대류활동과 동아시아 몬순활동 북서태평양의 대류활동, 계절 안 진동, 그리고 동아 시아 여름 몬순활동은 열대저기압의 발생, 발달 등과 관련이 크기 때문에 본 장에는 이들의 연관성을 분석 2.2. 하였다. Table 2에 나타낸 대류활동 지수는 외향장파복사량 (Outgoing Longwave Radiation, OLR)으로 추정한 상 층운량 값으로 열대대류활동의 지표로써 사용된다. (+) 값은 상층운량이 평년보다 많으며 대류활동이 활발함 을 의미하고 반대로 ( )값은 평년보다 대류활동이 활 발하지 않음을 의미한다. 대류활동 지수는 필리핀 (20 N~10 N, 110 E~140 E), 해양대륙 (Maritime continent, 5 N~5 S, 110 E~135 E) 그리고 날짜변경선 (5 N~5 S, 170 E~170 W)의 3개 지역으로 나누었다. 3개 지역에 서 지역 평균한 2009년 관측된 OLR값과 평년값 사 이의 편차로 대류활동 강약을 진단한다. Table 3의 계 절 안 진동 지수는 일명, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) 지수 또는 적도 동서풍 지수 (zonal wind index) 라고 불리기도 한다. 이 지수는 적도지역의 남북순환 의 강약을 진단하는 지표이다. (+)값은 서풍편차, ( ) 값은 동풍편차를 의미한다. MJO 지수는 2개 층과 5 개 지역으로 구분된다. 인도네시아 부근의 200 hpa (U200-IN, 5 N~5 S, 80 E~100 E), 중태평양 부근의 200 hpa (U200-CP, 5 N~5 S, 180~125 W), 서태평양 부근 850 hpa (U850-WP, 5 N~5 S, 160 E~175 W), 중 태평양 부근 850 hpa (U850-CP, 5 N~5 S, 170 W~ Atmosphere, Vol. 20, No. 4. (2010)

4 kt p Table 2. Convective activity in the tropical ocean in PH, MC, and DL represent Philippine, Maritime Continent, and Date Line, respectively Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. OLR-PH (20 N~10 N, 110 E~140 E) OLR-MC (5 N~5 S, 110 E~135 E) OLR-DL (5 N~5 S, 170 E~170 W) Table 3. The equatorial zonal wind index in IN, CP, and WP mean Indonesia, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific respectively Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. U200-IN (5 N~5 S, 80 E~100 E) U200-CP (5 N~5 S, 180~125 W) U850~WP (5 N~5 S, 160 E~175 W) U850-CP (5 N~5 S, 170 W~135 W) U850 EP (5 N~5 S, 130 W~100 W) W), ks 850 hpa (U850-EP, 5 N~5 S, 130 W~100 W) ƒƒ. Table 4 ùkü (+) y w wš, ( ) y w w. 35 o N~5 o S, 60 o E~150 o E s 2009 OLR r w w. 5 y, v v,, š p w y w. y w y w v v 640 km w (13.4 N, E) y kt (KUJIRA) ƒ w. 6 y 3y kt q (LINFA) 4y kt ûe(nangka) ƒ w v v y w, w. pƒ s w, y y w. ks tr ƒ k w. x x 6 l w x. 7 y ks ú ¾ y w š, w y w ù, y w. 6 y w. 8 y v v s w. ks 10 y w. ks «wd» yr ƒ ùkû. ks tr ƒ k w. MJO w ùkù y w y ks w š z w. 9 ks y y w p 9 z s y w š, q w. w û w v v w y w š w s w 7 kt w. «wd q kt k s v v, ¾» r ƒ ùkû. ks z tr w» wz» 20«4y (2010)

5 Á«x Á½ 455 Table 4. The Asian summer monsoon index in Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Activity Northward shift Westward shift ƒ w š, tr ƒ yw. s ƒ w w. 10 y ks s y w kƒ. ks (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ) ûks (South Pacific Convergence Zone, SPCZ)ƒ { w. v v û ¾ y y w. ks «wd ks» q š,» yr tr ƒ yw. s y w y w 9 29 l 10 ¾ w 5 kt w, kt kt ¼š w w kt p kt», kt 59 (1951 ~2009 ) s³ 26.4 ƒ w 3~4 ƒ ù w. ù 2009 s 22 kt w (Fig. 2) ~4, 12 w kt š, 5~10 21 s 21.3 w ù 11 1 s 2.5 w. 7~8 kt s 9 7 ƒ w s kt (KUJIRA) w 8 3 w. kt 22y (NIDA) w w. ƒ» w,»» w», t TD (Tropical Depression: 17 m/s ), TS (Tropical Storm: 17~24 m/s), STS (Severe Tropical Storm: 25~32 m/s), TY (Typhoon: 33 m/s ) 4 w w 22 kt 13 ƒ TY, 3 ƒ STS, 6 ƒ TS (Table 5). Table 5» (Japan Meteorological Agency, JMA) (best track) w. w ƒ w w 22y (NIDA) Fig. 2. The monthly distribution of typhoon number of 2009 ( ) and climatology ( ). Fig. 3. Same as Fig. 2, except for life span » 905 hpa, t 60 m/s» w (Table 5). w w p w kt 7y kt š (GONI) 17y kt q (PARMA) kt TS TD y ƒ TS w. kt» r (Fig. 3), 5 s 2 ¼ š, 6 s w. ù 7 84 s % x. 8~9 s 90% (6~8 ) kty w (, 2009) w w p w 10 kt 984 s (526 ) 2 ¼. 9 w w 10 ¾ 17 y kt q ( ~ ) 18y kt ( ~10 Atmosphere, Vol. 20, No. 4. (2010)

6 kt p Table 5. List of tropical cyclones which attained TS intensity or higher in Tropical cyclone Formation (KST) ~ Termination (KST) (Lat. Lon.) (Lat. Lon.) 0901 KUJIRA 3 May 03:00 ~ 8 May 03:00 (13.4, 124.6) (32.3, 149.3) 0902 CHAN-HOM 3 May 21:00 ~ 9 May 09:00 (9.9, 111.6) (17.2, 127.5) 0903 LINFA 18 Jun. 09:00 ~ 22 Jun. 15:00 (17.6, 116.1) (27.4, 120.7) 0904 NANGKA 23 Jun. 15:00 ~ 27 Jun. 03:00 (11.8, 125.3) (23.0, 114.2) 0905 SOUDELOR 11 Jul. 09:00 ~ 12 Jul. 09:00 (19.8, 115.0) (20.5, 110.4) 0906 MOLAVE 16 Jul. 15:00 ~ 19 Jul. 15:00 (16.6, 125.1) (23.3, 111.1) 0907 GONI 1 (19.7, 115.3) (21.9, 111.1) 7 Aug. 15:00 ~ 8 Aug. 15:00 3 Aug. 21:00 ~ 6 Aug. 15:00 (20.2, 109.2) (18.4, 108.2) 0908 MORAKOT 3 Aug. 09:00 ~ 11 Aug. 03:00 (20.3, 133.8) (31.0, 120.5) 0909 ETAU 9 Aug. 15:00 ~ 13 Aug. 09:00 (27.0, 135.2) (33.8, 151.7) 0910 VAMCO 18 Aug. 03:00 ~ 26 Aug. 09:00 (14.5, 158.3) (51.4, 169.3) 0911 KROVANH 28 Aug. 21:00 ~ 1 Sep. 21:00 (23.8, 149.0) (42.9, 148.2) 0912 DUJUAN 4 Sep. 03:00 ~ 10 Sep. 15:00 (17.1, 128.2) (45.5, 167.4) 0913 MUJIGAE 10 Sep. 09:00 ~ 12 Sep. 09:00 (19.0, 114.9) (20.0, 106.0) 0914 CHOI-WAN 13 Sep. 03:00 ~ 20 Sep. 21:00 (15.4, 150.9) (36.8, 152.3) 0915 KOPPU 14 Sep. 03:00 ~ 15 Sep. 21:00 (19.7, 116.6) (23.3, 109.5) 0916 KETSANA 26 Sep. 09:00 ~ 30 Sep. 15:00 (15.1, 122.4) (15.3, 107.1) 0917 PARMA 1 (7.8, 138.9) (17.1, 118.6) 11 Oct. 09:00 ~ 14 Oct. 09:00 29 Sep. 15:00 ~ 10 Oct. 09:00 (17.3, 114.0) (20.3, 107.1) 0918 MELOR 30 Sep. 09:00 ~ 8 Oct. 21:00 (11.5, 156.2) (40.0, 143.6) 0919 NEPARTAK 9 Oct. 15:00 ~ 14 Oct. 09:00 (19.4, 142.7) (34.0, 160.0) 0920 LUPIT 15 Oct. 21:00 ~ 27 Oct. 09:00 (12.1, 140.2) (38.3, 146.1) 0921 MIRINAE 27 Oct. 15:00 ~ 3 Nov. 03:00 (14.9, 143.7) (13.0, 106.7) 0922 NIDA 23 Nov. 21:00 ~ 3 Dec. 09:00 (8.5, 147.1) (21.7, 134.2) Min. pressure, Max. wind, Date, Lat. Lon. hpa m/s Date Lat. Lon. TY May 03: TY May 03: STS Jun. 15: TS Jun. 21: TS Jul. 15: TY Jul. 03: TS Aug. 15: TY Aug. 00: TS Aug. 09: TY Aug. 09: STS Aug. 03: STS Sep. 09: TS Sep. 09: TY Sep. 21: TY Sep. 03: TY Sep. 15: TY Oct. 09: TY Oct. 15: TS Oct. 09: TY Oct. 03: TY Oct. 21: TY Nov. 21: w» wz» 20«4y (2010)

7 8 21 ), š 10 w 3 kt (19y~21y). 17y q (930 hpa, 50 m/s), 18y (910 hpa, 55 m/s), 20y v (930 hpa, 50 m/s) w w.» y s y w». kt 17 y q (PARMA) 330 ù, ƒ kt 5y (SOUDELOR) y kt w kt» s 6~7 y w š, 9 l 10 ¾ s y w. (untypical) (seasonality)» w y» y w. y w w q (Outgoing Longwave Radiation, OLR) w š, NCEP-NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research) w» y w. kt w ~11 ¾ OLR 850 hpa (Fig. 4), š 500 hpa š œ s (Fig. 5) ùkü ks š» e e w, ƒ y r ƒ f kt ü w ù ww û ù ƒ ƒ ùkû. ù š» ù» w» š, ù w kt w w w- ù y s w w kt w., k s 140 E s w y y w. ks w kt w w š ù w š y y w û w û w ùƒ ƒ. r, 5 y v v w w y w ƒ, ks š» w 5 w 1y 2y kt ¾ w wš, 20 N w w ûw e d» w w y. 6 ks š» y k ù, y 5 y š ydjw š» ey d», ù d» Á«x Á½ 457 w. 3y 4y kt š y w yû w š ù w. ù ew d» 7 ¾ š ydjw š» y ƒ x ùkû. w s w û. ks š» w¾ y š 7 w 5y, 6y kt w ü w. ks š y 8 ¾ 7y, 8y kt w w. 7 y v v w (10~30 o N, 100~140 o E) w, ûks w. 7 2 kt w s 50% š 15%, kty 2009 ƒ w. 8 z ks š» y š, ks w ( 140 E ) y y w.» w kt w kt w w w w w. š w ww û w w. w d w» y djw š» w x ùkû. 9 v v w wš š k w š ks y y w, p v v w s y w. v v w y w y w w 7 kt w š, 9» 1951 z š. p Table 2 7 v v w y ƒ +0.5 š ew. ks š» yû ks (ú ) š, š» w w v v ü w ù w z û ù ù. 10 š» û v v w ùkû, ks š» 9 w w. y 9 w y ù, v v û w y w ùkù 140 E (10 N~20 N) kt w š» ù. 10 w š» w š ƒ ¼ 21 y kt w v v m wš û w y N ü w Atmosphere, Vol. 20, No. 4. (2010)

8 458 년 태풍 특징 2009 The monthly distribution of vorticity anomaly (solid and dashed line) at 850 hpa and negative OLR anomaly (shaded) from May to November Contour interval is 4e-6/s for vorticity anomaly. The unit of OLR anomaly is Wm. The ( ) is denoted the genesis position of tropical cyclone each month. Zero contours are suppressed. Fig 한국기상학회 대기 제20권 4호 (2010)

9 Á«x Á½ 459 Fig. 5. The monthly distribution of geopotential height (solid line) and anomaly (shaded) at 500 hpa from May to November The unit is gpm. Zero contours are suppressed. The ( ) is denoted the genesis position of tropical cyclone each month. Atmosphere, Vol. 20, No. 4. (2010)

10 kt p y y w, kt w w v v w, w, û w w. ù w ƒ k wš, 22y kt w w w ù w. 22y kt û ks š» w š, 20 N ù y. y» y ww (Table 2~4; Fig. 4~5),»zw kt w v v w y 6~7 s w š (inactive), 9~10 y w. š, w y ql 6~8 w. w y w d y kt w» œw. w» y v v w s š» w ³ kt e s, x Fig w kt e, t w, e ùkü. w kt ƒ s wš û w ( 10~20, 140~160 ) s 6 ù w p wù š w. 9y kt k (ETAU) 27.0 N, E w š w k t. ƒ w kt 17y q. w ƒ w kt 2y y, ƒ w kt 10y Õ. kt y,» ƒ. kt» y q (2008b) w w 22 kt 14 ƒ y š 8 ƒ». y (2006) kt x t x, x, x, x š»k w w, 4 (2001~2004 ) w k t t x 40%, x 22%, x 12%,»k 26% w w 22 kt t x 4 (10y, 11y, 14y, 18 y), x 9 (5y, 6y, 7y, 8y, 13y, 15y, 16 y, 21y, 22y), x 4 (1y, 2y, 12y, 19y), x 2 (3y, 4y),»k 3 (9y, 17y, 20y) x ƒ. 9y kt z» S xk, 17y kt v v 1 i z, 20y kt S xk (Fig. 6). ù w kt 8y kt 1 s. ks š» s w ¾ y w w š, w kt û m w. 18y kt (MELOR) y û w (Fig. 6).» 955 hpa, t 40 m/s y kt s 2009 kt ù w w kt. ù 8 8 y kt Ö (MORAKOT) Fig. 6. Tracks of tropical cyclones which attained TS intensity or higher in 2009 ( w» wz» 20«4y (2010)

11 Á«x Á½ 461 y ù y. 8y kt jù û 970 km w (20.3 N, E) w. kt 7 0 k û 220 km w 945 hpa, t 40 m/s» w TY w š w x kt. kt 8 3 k w š, 9 22 w t w. w» 980 hpa, t 30 m/s. z kt y š, 11 3 w û 230 km y kt. kt w 8 11~12 Á» ƒ ü y ƒ t.» s 354, 195, 258, 355, 304 mm (Fig. 7).» y tw š, 8y kt w» p y t, wû ûw t tw l Á» y ƒ t z kt w w. kt w» ƒƒ 24 (83 km), 48 (180 km), š 72 (259 km) Fig. 7. The distribution of daily rainfall on 11~12 Aug. in s³ 219 km yw ùkû. t w l y¾ 4~18 m/s (+), d w w û 6 21, , û 8 3 ƒ (Fig. 8).» Fig. 8. The time series of five days moving averaged rainfall for 11 observational stations from 1 Jun. to 30 Sep The lines indicate normal values (dotted line) from 1954 to 2009 and observation values (solid line) in The thick solid lines denote the periods of heavy rainfall. The first days of Changma are 21 Jun. at Jeju Island and the southern area, and 28 Jun. at the middle area. The retreat days of Changma are 21 Jul. at the middle area and 3 Aug. at Jeju Island and the southern part of Korean peninsula. Atmosphere, Vol. 20, No. 4. (2010)

12 kt p Table 6. The period of Changma onset and retreat day in 2009 and climatology. Area Onset of Changma Retreat of Changma Rainfall (mm) 2009 Climatology 2009 Climatology 2009 Climatology Jeju Island 21 Jun. 19 Jun. 3 Aug. 20~21 Jul Southern area 21 Jun. 22~23 Jun. 3 Aug. 22~23 Jul Middle area 28 Jun. 23~24 Jun. 21 Jul. 23~24 Jul š, û ¼, s (Table 6). 4 (6~9 ) r» w 1954 l 2009 ¾ (55 ) ù 11 d (,,,, Ÿ, s,, sw,, ) s³w r w s w š (s 80%), w y w 7 s 185%. š 8 s 58% s ( ). ù 11 5 s³w s (1954~2009 ) ¾ ùkü (Fig. 8) ~9 30 ¾ 3»ƒ.» 6 27 l 7 1 š, 7 5 ~23 ¾».» 8 9~13 ¾ 8y kt w. 4. kt y 2009 w 22 kt w w» (KMA),» (JMA), š w kt l (Joint Typhoon Warning Center, JTWC) tw 24, 48, 72 w (Fig. 9). y s³ w., Fig. 9a 24 hours (126) w» 24 ƒ 126 km w. 48» w, 22 kt w s³ y, w. 48 w,, œm ƒ j kt 2y y(chan-hom), 9y k (ETAU), 20y v (LUPIT) (Fig. 9). w, 19y kt ƒ f. 2y kt y pû ye 540 km w w v v 800 km w w. kt - w, w, w w w j ƒ ùkû. 9y kt k z» S xk w (Fig. 6). kt e û 720 km w w ,110 km w w. 2 w w ƒ y j š, y ( ). 20y kt v S xk (Fig. 6). kt ž 630 km w w û 330 km w w. 2 w 25 N» w w» ƒ f.» y d» w ƒ ƒw ( ). 20y kt JTWC 2 w yw dw š w (364 km) (401 km) w 311 km ƒ. 3 kt ƒ f s³w 2009 kt ƒ f. kt e kt e ƒ. JTWC JMA w 20y kt eƒ wù, KMA» ƒ ùkû., 20y kt e w, JTWC N, E, JMA N, E w wš e w. KMA N, E, w e N, N w JTWC JMA w 24 š, e j. ùkû 20y kt w KMA 219 km, w z 213 km tw. Fig 9a Fig. 10 ùkü KMA 20y w 10 w» wz» 20«4y (2010)

13 차은정 권혁조 김세진 Fig The comparisons of typhoon track error distance for (a) KMA, (b) JMA, and (c) JTWC in 월 27일 09시까지의 평균값이다. 한국 일본 미국 3개의 예보기관과 8개의 모델에 서 예보한 태풍진로오차를 비교하였다. 한국 기상청 의 전구모델인 GDAPS (Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System) 보다 기상청 태풍예보관의 예보오 차가 작았다. 그러나 일본 기상청의 전구모델인 JGSM (JMA Global Spectral Model)은 일본 태풍예보관보다 정확하였다. JTWC에서 주로 많이 참고하는 NOGAPS (Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System)와 Global Forecast System (GFS)는 JTWC 예 보관과 거의 비슷한 수준이었다. 3개 예보기관과 8개 모델 중에서 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)가 3개중 가장 정확한 예 보결과를 보여주었다 (그림 생략). 그러나 ECMWF의 태풍진로자료는 입수되는 시간이 늦고 입수 횟수가 적어서 예보당시에 참고하기에는 어려운 실정이다. 좀 더 장기간의 진로오차 경향을 파악하기 위하여 9년 (2001~2009년) 동안 한국 (KMA), 일본 (JMA), 그리고 미국 (JTWC)의 48시간 태풍진로 예보오차에 대하여 비교하였다 (Fig. 10). JMA ( go.jp/)와 JTWC ( 예 보오차는 각 기관의 홈페이지를 통해 공식적으로 발 표한 자료를 이용하였다. 해마다 진로 오차 정확도가 다르지만 전반적으로 향상되어 가는 경향을 보여주고 Atmosphere, Vol. 20, No. 4. (2010)

14 464 년 태풍 특징 2009 있었다. 그러나 2005년 이후로 오차가 계속 증가하고 있다. 한국이 2001, 2002, 2004년에 일본은 2003, 2005, 2006년에 각각 예보가 더 정확하였다. 2009년에도 3 국 모두 오차가 컸는데, 이것은 제9호와 제20호 태풍 처럼 이상진로를 보인 태풍의 예보오차가 커서 평균 한 오차 증가의 원인이 되었다. 5. The comparisons of the 48 hours forecasted typhoon track error distance for KMA ( ), JMA ( ) and JTWC ( ) from 2001 to Fig. 10. 태풍활동의 장기간 변동 특징 최근 태풍의 강도와 진로 경향 등, 전반적인 태풍 활동의 변동 특징에 대하여 알아보기 위하여 1951년 부터 2009년까지 일본 기상청의 최적경로 자료를 사 용하여 북서태평양의 태풍활동도를 분석하였다. 이 태 풍활동도에는 발생수 (Fig. 11a), Normalized Typhoon a) The long term variations of typhoon number from 1951 to The bars indicate number of annual ( ) typhoons for year of more ( ) than normal and year of less ( ) than normal. And the thick solid line means five years moving average of typhoon number. (b) same as Fig. 11a, except for NTA, (c) same as Fig. 11a, except for life span. Fig. 11. ( 한국기상학회 대기 제20권 4호 (2010)

15 Activity (NTA) (Fig. 11b; Kwon, 2007; Lee, 2007), š» (Fig. 11c) sw. w kt ( v) 5 s ³ ( ) ùkü. 59 s³ kt 26.4 š, ±1t r ù w kt s (+1 t r ) (-1 t r ) w w w. w, s w w 1964~1967, 1971, 1974, 1989, w w 1951, 1954, 1969, 1973, 1975, 1977, 1998, 2003.» ƒ w w ƒ w š, ƒ w w ƒ w. 5 s³w k t w, w» (1960, 1990 ~1995 ) w» (1970 ~1980 )ƒ» ùkû. kt w ùkùš, 10 w k t s³ w w w, w w Fig. 11b ùkü 59 s³ NTA s kty w ( w ) w 10 (9 ). kty ƒ w w 1999 š, ƒ w w kty (Fig. 11a) ƒ» š š j wš, w kty ƒ 2009 p ùkû.» kt y 0.5. kt (Fig. 11c) NTA w p. 3ƒ w» w»ƒ» 10» w. ù ¾» w ks» y, e mw kt w 2009 w kt p w r w x š» 2009 kt x w ƒ. y s 6~7 w ù, 9~10 y w. w y w Á«x Á½ 465 w ~10 kt ƒ š, ¼ w 22 kt 13 ƒ TY, 3 ƒ STS, 6 ƒ TS kt w s 26.7 w w š, 8 8y k t MORAKOT (0908) ù w y Á» y. 48» w, 2009 kt y w,, š 215~220 km w. 48 r, w,, œm ƒ j kt 2y y (CHAN-HOM), 9y k (ETAU), 20y v (LUPIT). 2y kt y z w w w š, w w w j ƒ ùkû. 9y 20y S xk w w» y ƒ f. x w, t x 4, x 9, x 4, x 2, š 3 x ƒ w, s j. 1951~2009 w» k ty (, NTA, ) p w. kty y w»»» p ùkù» z l 2009 ¾ (low phase)»ƒ š ƒ š,, NTA s w kty ƒ w p 6~7 kt w w y w ù, 9~10 y w». kty 10» k w w w ³ v w q.» ƒkt l x»»» (CATER ) y. š x», 2005: kt w Á» z kt l, 160pp. Atmosphere, Vol. 20, No. 4. (2010)

16 kt p y,,,, 2006: mw kt.»», ,,, k,, 2008: w p y. w wz, 43(3), ,, «x, 2007: ks -û» y kty w. 5»z y w z, pp.,, y,,,,, «x,, 2007: 2006 kt p kt w.», 17(3), , y, «x, 2008a: 2007 kt p.», 18(3), ,, «x, 2008b: x kt» y q w š. w wz, 29(7), , yy,,, š, ½ y, «x, 2009: 2008 kt p.», 19(3), Chan, J. C. L., 1985: Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005: Annual report on activities of the RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center, rsmc-hp-pub-eg/annualreport/2005/text/text2005.pdf. Japan Meteorological Agency, 2009: Monthly report on the climate system, diag/2009/index/html/soiolru/index_html_soiolru_ 2009.html (in Japanese). Kwon, H.-J., W.-J. Lee, S.-H. Won, E.-J. Cha, 2007: Statistical ensemble prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L24805, doi: /2007gl Lee, W.-J., J.-S. Park, and H. J. Kwon. 2007: A statistical model for prediction of the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J. Korean Meteorol. Soc., 43, w» wz» 20«4y (2010)

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