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1 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 13, Number 2, September 2014 : pp. 199~230 에너지 기후변화정책의양립가능성평가 *: 한국의전력부문을중심으로 199

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6 [ 그림 1] 발전설비의에너지원별발전용량및연식구조 (2010 년 ) 204

7 [ 그림 2] 6 차계획의기술별신규발전용량 205

8 [ 그림 3] 6 차계획의누적 (2010~2029) 신규발전용량및투자비 206

9 < 표 1> 6 차계획의전력수요전망 207

10 [ 그림 4] 전력소비량의연평균증가율 208

11 [ 그림 5] 연간총전력소비량실적및전망 209

12 [ 그림 6] 발전원별연료비용변화 210

13 [ 그림 7] 발전기술별전력균등화비용 (2010 년 ) 및이용률 211

14 < 표 2> 주요발전기술의기준이용률과최대이용률전제 212

15 < 표 3> 시나리오의구성과전제 213

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17 [ 그림 8] 에너지원별발전용량및비중 215

18 [ 그림 9] 주요시나리오의에너지원별발전량 216

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20 [ 그림 10] 수요감소와재생에너지확대가천연가스와석탄발전에미치는영향 218

21 [ 그림 11] 시나리오별온실가스배출경로 219

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23 [ 그림 12] 시나리오별총연료비용 221

24 [ 그림 13] 시나리오별유연탄발전과가스복합발전의이용률변화 222

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26 [ 그림 14] 확정설비의자연퇴화에따른온실가스배출경로 224

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28 접수일 (2014 년 1 월 22 일 ), 수정일 (2014 년 8 월 16 일 ), 게재확정일 (2014 년 6 월 2 일 ) 226

29 , 2011, 3, 2014,,,,,,,, 2011, 2020 : ( ), 2013,, 2012, 2011, 2013,, , 5 (2010~2024 ), 2013, 6 (2013~2027), 2012, Bertram, Christoph, Nils Johnson, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Morna Isaac, and Jiyong Eom., 2013, Carbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change Cho, C.H., 2013, Technological Advancement and Implication for Optimal Carbon Mitigation Portfolio in Korean Power Sector, Ph.D. Thesis, Sejong University. Davis, Steven J., Ken Caldeira, and H. Damon Matthews, 2010, Future CO 2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure, Science : Fischer, C., & Newell, R. G., 2008, Environmental and technology policies for climate mitigation, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 55(2), doi: /j.jeem GEA, 2012, Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International 227

30 Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. IEA and NEA, 2010, Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, 2010 Edition, International Energy Agency, Nuclear Energy Agency. IEA, 2012, World Energy Outlook 2012, International Energy Agency. Messner, S., & Strubegger, M., 1995, User s Guide for MESSAGE III, WP-95-69, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. Metz, B., 2001, Climate change 2001: Mitigation: contribution of Working Group III to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. Metz, B., 2007, Climate Change 2007-Mitigation of Climate Change: Working Group III Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press. Nakićenović, N., Grübler, A., McDonald, A., 1998, Global Energy Perspectives, Cambridge University Press. Nakicenovic, N., Swart, R., 2000, IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. O Neill, B. C., Riahi, K., & Keppo, I., 2010, Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(3), Riahi, K., Grübler, A., & Nakicenovic, N., 2007, Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(7), Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann, G., Nakicenovic, N., Rafaj, P., 2011, RCP 8.5 A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Climatic Change 109, Roelfsema, M., Elzen, M. D., Höhne, N., Hof, A. F., Braun, N., Fekete, H.,... & Larkin, J., 2013, Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies, Energy Policy 67,

31 Paul, A., Palmer, K., Woerman, M., 2013, Modeling a clean energy standard for electricity: Policy design implications for emissions, supply, prices, and regions, Energy Economics 36, Schrattenholzer, L., Miketa, A., Riahi, K., & Roehrl, R. A. (Eds.), 2004, Achieving a Sustainable Global Energy System: Identifying Possibilities Using Long-term Energy Scenarios, Edward Elgar Publishing. UNEP, 2013, The Emissions Gap Report A UNEP Synthesis Report, Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP UNFCCC, 2010, Decision 1/CP.16, The Cancun Agreements, UNFCCC document FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1, < 229

32 ABSTRACT This study assesses the compatibility of current energy policy with climate change policy by simulating the feasible domain of GHG emissions in Korean electricity sector and evaluating whether the mitigation pledge can be achieved, based on the 6th Basic Plan on Electricity Supply and Demand. With electricity generation capacity fixed until 2030 according to the 6th Plan, we simulate 6 alternative scenarios, each of which is the different combination of electricity demand, utilization of renewable technologies, and fuel substitution. We found that even the lowest emission pathway, which requires unprecedented combination of demand reduction, enhanced renewable generation, and fuel substitution, can not reach the pledge level in The lowest emission scenario also inevitably incurs additional fuel cost and stranded cost on already-installed coal capacity. These findings provide a supporting evidence that current energy and climate change policy are incompatible and either of them is not binding at least in an economic sense. The characteristics of both energy system and associated climate change problem imply that energy policy making should take a long-term perspective and secure the consistency with climate policy goal. Such harmonized forwarding-looking energy policy is necessary conditions for cost-effective carbon mitigation. Key Words : Energy Policy, Climate Change Policy, Electricity Sector, Energy Model, Reduction Pledge, Emission Gap JEL Codes : Q21, Q41, Q47, Q48 230

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에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 10, Number 1, March 2011 : pp. 1~24 국내화력발전산업에대한연료와자본의대체성분석 1 2 3 ~ 4 5 F F P F P F ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 6 ln ln ln ln ln 7 ln