u æ ] y QQ_ 산업혁명을어떤기준으로판단할것인가? * - 슈밥의 4차산업혁명론에대한비판적검토 - 김석관 초록 r q ~ Š mz } } Š ~ ~ y Š ~ ~ z g m z ~ r z ~ r } l x ~ ~ zn ~ ~ r l~~ } } x z Š r ~zn

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1 u æ ] y QQ_ 산업혁명을어떤기준으로판단할것인가? * - 슈밥의 4차산업혁명론에대한비판적검토 - 김석관 초록 r q~ Š mz } } Š ~ ~ y Š ~ ~ z g mz ~ r z ~r } l x ~ ~ zn ~ ~ r l~~ } } x z Š r ~zn nn Š mz ~ n} ~ ~ z n q~ Š mz ~ { z ~ fœ} m}s mz } œ ~ r ~}} ƒ z }z mz ~ zl } Š n mz ~ n } Ž ~ mz ~ œ } r z ~ z ~y q~ ~ { ~ Š mz z fœ } x ~ ~ ~y ~ m mz } n }z~ } ž~mmnƒ~ƒyy zšxšmz } ~ z y Š mz q } Š mz ~ p ~ mz œ 67(3, Šz ~ ~d p y ~ pšz z} HPDLO NVNZDQ#VWHSLUHNU

2 u æ ] y Ⅰ. 서론 r žzn r q~ Š mz ~ ny ~ ~ m y ~ Š ~z g p z ~ y ~ z ~ x d Š zn Š mz z ~Š} x d n rz ~ y y Š mz y} Ÿ } ~~ dzn Šmz } ~ n y z ~ Š ~j x ~~z ~ Š mz } n y x xœ{ ~n~ } ~ } Ÿ r p~ ~ ~z ~z ~ Š m z ~ p ~ r ~ ~r~ m z ~ Š mz ~ y Š ~ l zn } Š ~ ~ r z ~r o ~ lr q ~ EX]]ZRUG Š mz } }d ~ } y z d fœ} x xzn m ~ ~ fœ~ Ÿ~ ~{ z Š mz } y d l~ ~ fœ r} q~ } Š mz } Š r ~ m~ fy z m ~ p ~ ~ ~ Š zn ~ ~r ~ ~}z d Š r } g } ~ ~ ~ r l~~ ~ z } x ~ } p ~ r ~} y ~ yšz ~ p z ~Š} n ~ r ~r~ ~ } ~ ~ zn x z Š r ~zn n n Š mz ~ nz ~ ~ ~ q ~ Š mz ~ z ~ ƒ ~ Š mz z f ~ a l~z ~ m mz ~ ~ ~ } n q~ Š mz ~ { z ~ f œ} m}s mz } œ ~ r ~}}

3 Ûø ² ql ƒ ~ ~ }z mz ~ zl } Š n mz ~ n ƒ mz ~ œ } Ž ~ ~ ~ z ~y q~ ~ { ~ Š mz z fœ} ~ ~ Ⅱ. 4 차산업혁명을둘러싼논쟁 1. 4 차산업혁명론의탄생과전개 ~ Š mz z ~ r ž~ Š mz ~ ~ 0DVWHULQJ WKH WK,QGXVWULDO 5HYROXWLRQ ~ m}n r~z ~ l n ž :RUOG (FRQRPLF )RUXP :()~ n ~~~ ~~~ r q.odxv 6FKZDE} ~ )RUHLJQ $IIDLUV z zn Š mz ~ } n 6FKZDE z oš~ n ~n ~ ~yq ~ r~ Š mz ~~ m } r ~ yp~ Š mz ~ m ~ n { S

4 u æ ] y q~ Š mz } ~ n ~ } m p ~ d r~ ~~ ~r,qgxvwulh ~ ~ p~ ~ ~~z z z ~~ q} zz z ~~ ~r } mz} n Š mz } Š ~ zn } ~ p ~ ~~z z } } ~ Š q} GLJLWDOL]DWLRQ } GLJLWDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ~ d p ~ ~ p n ~ n~ ~~z z } ~ f r x ~ ~z ~ ~ ~ q~ Š mz ~ }z } ~ x œ p y zn o mz Š mz ~ y ~ { ~ } Ÿ ~ p y r ~ ~r~ xœ l} Š ~ z mz ~ zn d Š zn Š mz y p n Š ~z} Ž q~ Š mz ~ r ~ ~ ~ x zn ~ ~ z ~ } oš~ Ÿ q ~ ~ dr n ~ m~ y ~ } ~ ~ ~ r r oz }~ fœ} r 5LINLQ~ } mmn zn Š m z ~ ~ p ~z f r x } fœ } mz ~ n p zon zn q} fœ ~ zn q~ r Š mz ~ { ~ fœ} m}s mz ~ œ } r q~ ~ d ~ } ~~ 2. 슈밥의 4차산업혁명론의개요와문제점 1) 슈밥의 4차산업혁명론의개요 q~ Š mz ~ ~ ~r )UH\ 2VERUQH ž f r x z ~n e n { SS} Š

5 Ûø ² ql q } n~ r~ rz m mz ~ r~z ~ ~ m mz } p } } d p ~ Š mz } } m ~ ~ ~~ } ~ aš mz ~ y Š mz ~ ~ az Œ m Š mz } n ƒ~ } } z ~ mm} ~zn zn n Œ ~y Š mz } { mm ~~ Ž } mm} z r~ Š mz } { ~ ~ 3& ~ ~ } n ~ } ~ ~ n mz } n y ~{ ~ m} z Š mz ~ r~z ~ p ~ } } Š mz } n~ r~ rz Ž }f r ~ ~ n ~ nn ~ r~ Š mz ~ ~ q Š mz } p { rr } z r x x } x }~ znzdnzn p ~mz zn y dyzn y ~ r} ~y ~ ~ p ~ } z zz zz m zz~ m Š mz } ~ y } q ~} z } p ~ q} ~ d m mz ~ ~ ~ Ž p ~~ ~ ~ y } dn xxmz ~ ~~ { xz~ Ž z dn} z dm p~ } r z ~ r } ~ Š mz ~ œ } r ~d ~{ } ~ m } z Š mz ~ z~n} ~ ~ { Š mz ~ ~ ~ lr} n ~ o aš mz Š mz } n o x p

6 u æ ] y o ~ ~ m ~ n ~ n zy ~} rp~ m y z} Ž p} y}s m }{ ~ Š mz } } } y p} } ~j x z l }z œ~ } } z } y ~ j x ~z n ~} ~ rr Ž Š mz } z mz l rr ~ p q ~ } r nzn Š mz ~ nz ~ } Š~ dd} ~ p n~ ~~ z d { x l ~z z np z y ~ ~ zr ~ p z ~ ~ q~ ~} y n~ r~ ~~ d m mz ~ r~z œ { l ~ dz ~~ ~ d m mz ~ ~ o }{ ~ rr ~ Ž~ ~ 2) 슈밥의 4차산업혁명론이지닌문제점 q Š mz } } Š x Šmz ~ ~ ~ z o }{ ~ rr Ž } r ~ d ~ y g y m mz ~ ~" q} ~z } r xx q ~ ~ ~ p} p} { ~ x ~ x x } ~ ~ z ~ o g ~ q} a r Š mz } y 5LINLQ} m mz ~ } ~ o x mz } pghilqlqj WHFKQRORJLHV~ zd ~ ~ ƒ y g ~y z~ Ž œ yy

7 Ûø ² ql Ÿ! q~ Š mz zn y p ~ d p Ÿ œ p ~ o ~} Š p ~z p p ' ro~ ~ p ~m z z ~p }~ }~ r r nm ~ yf ~ r m l~ nn f ~ f ~ { } ~ ~ m~ ~ž }f r r ž ~ r n616 r ~ ~r r r r f ~ ~ qzn n q} ~ o z z~ Š mz ~ r~ p ~~ n yy ~ nzn ~~ d x ~~ q~ ~~~ ~ }~ ~ zn ~ aš mz } n r~ Ž r~ p ~} z Š { ƒ Š { mm ~ Š 3& ~ ~ Š mz } n ~ d np xx } Š mz ~ ny ~ ~ nn ~ } } r q } zn }~ znz dn

8 u æ ] y p ~mz } y n zz zz m zz ~ } } q GULYHU Š mz ~ Žp } ~zn ~ n zzz ~ r } p} Š z 'HHS 6KLIW ~ e} dzn p~ Ÿ~ r} ~ q~ Šzn y p} ~ p Ÿ dy ~ {Ÿ ~lrm ~} ~ p Ÿ dy ~ lr m mz ~ ~ } n } n yy mz ~dp~} ~} zy Š ~ m pz ~ Ž ~}} zy q} Š mz ~ Š } } m z ~zz } } zn Š mz ~ p ~~ Š mz y dzonz ~~ yy Š{ Š~ dzon} ~ƒ ~ Š mz ~ o~ j~ ~ ~ Š mz ~ o ~ z~z q~ xzn Š mz } z o xx z ~ } xz Š mz ~ r m mz ~ r~ z ~} Š{ Š~ Š~ d r yy ~ n r} x o }{ ~ rr Ž~ } r n p ~~ }{ Ž~ } ~ n } Š mz ~ p ~} ~ }p} y n ~ p~ z { l ~ dy n r ~ ~ ~ n} Œ} ~z } Š mz ~ ~ n} ~} y ~ } p~ zn { l ~ dyz Ž} z ~ y p ~ lr y r l z z } p ~ ~ z p }} ~{ ~ ~} p ~} ~ ~ m mz ~ œ ~ z ~ o{ }j~ a m mz ~ ~ p ~} Š mz ~ r ~} r z} Š mz } x~ z p z g pz z Š mz ~ ~z Š mz ~ z~" y y m~

9 Ûø ² ql Š mz ~ n~ ~ m} o x o } } ~y ~ ~ pz z ~~ q ~ Š mz } l ~ n} } ~}~ lr q~ Š} ~n ~ y oz Š mz ~ oz Š} p~ z ~~ Š mz } } } y p} } q r rpz ~ n~ ~ { rp~ } } ~ ~ Š zn o r} } } n~ ~ }~ znzdn} zm ~ dn~ z~ d ~ ~ zz ~ p z} ~ ~ zmz ~q ~ p ~ } p~ dyz n d y~ p } ~ ~ mz l ~ dyz p~ m} GLJLWDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ} d p ~ ~ ~ } p} rp p Žp p } d ~ p zn rp} z ~ l~ f~ dn ~ ~} n zyn y mzdyz p JHQHUDO SXUSRVH WHFKQRORJ\~ n} ~ {z } p} p~ dy p d p ~ mƒ r f ~ ' ro~ }} } ~ x p n~ d r zn p d p ~ }~ dn }~ nž ~m~ r r~mz { } ~z z dy p ~} ~ ~ GULYHU~ p~ Š GHVWLQDWLRQ p~ dy zn y ~} dy p d p~ ~ p~ }{ n d ~~ p ~ } œx q ~ y ~ r ~ p ~ r~ ~ ~ ~ l~ ~

10 u æ ] y p } } dyzn ~ ~~ q~ p~ n} y n p~ } n d n x z zz m zz p~ n } }s ~ z z ~ x ~~ ~ r Š mz } ~ y ~ z ~ nyz ~ x m 3. 슈밥의 4차산업혁명론에대한비판들 1) 고든의비판 ~ l ~~ ~ fœ} ~ Š mz z ~}~ ~ ~ ~ q~ Š mz z ~ x q~ lm j~ f r x z ~z f r x mmn œr{ n ~ ~ ~} fœ z ~~z ~ Šz Š mz ~ y ~ x } ~ {~ ~ ez zn ~ y } l n Š mz } Š mz ~ zoz d ~ o} Š mz ~ r p~ Š mz rd ~ p~ ~} ~z x~ ~ ~ Š ~ n~} zn f r x p ~z } ~ } ~ mmn œr{ ~ m pm~~ o z yn r~} r mmn zn} ~ p z zn } mmn œ r ~ ~ ~ ~~ mmn} mr ƒ z } y~ ~{ n f r x f p ~} r Ÿ~ } yn p ~ mmn ƒ ~ x ~ x} j~ ~} ~z } ~r~ Ž ~ mmn ~ zn a~ x z } Œ ommn ƒ}~ ~ ~{ } mmn ƒ x } ~ mm <RX VHH WKH FRPSXWHU DJH HYHU\ZKHUH EXW LQ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ VWDWLVWLFV 6RORZ

11 Ûø ² ql n œr z } } ~ ~ Œ ommn z ƒ} ~ S z ~ mmn ƒ Š mz z ~ } ~ ~ d ož~ mmn ƒ } ~ ~ ~z ~ } Ž ~ oz ~ mmn Ÿ~ Ž~y a x} az } mmnƒy ~ ~ ~~ ƒ mmn Ÿ ~ zn Š mz } l Š mz r dd ~ ~ ~~ ~~ } mmn~ RXWSXW Ÿ x mž p r~ } Šz f Š mz ~ y ~z z Š d ~ ~ m p 7KH 86 6WDQGDUG RI /LYLQJ 6LQFH WKH &LYLO :DU~ d z y } ~ z Š~ dd} y n ~ m ~ p r} y { Ž z ~Š f nn} ~ Š mz ~ Ÿ p r} y l {z m p x r LQWHU VWDWHn œr Ÿ { rÿ q ~rÿ ~ n zy ~ 79Ž}zz ~yÿrÿ~yÿ}m ~rr } } z n ~~ ~r zr} ž m } } r } ~ Š mz z m }} zn z

12 u æ ] y d ~y }~ zlzn ~ } d d~ z~r Ÿ~ p z m~z } ~y Š mz ~ } z f Š mz ~ p } œ r z ~ z ~ z ~ ~ } ~ Šmz }d ~z }} Š mz z ~ } ~z o znz } ~~ yz ~ x ~} pz Ž p z} x p z Š mz } ~~ ~p o r} { yx Š mz ~ m ~ zz} xx ~ ~ n ~ Š mz } }r ~ nf o r z ~ { }xl ~zn~ ~ m z Š zn ~ Œ } ~ ~ z d ~~ m } ~} o~ z Š mz z z ~ ~ lr } ~ ~ pl ~ +XJKHV~ y r np m z} prr z rr rr rrr mm rr ~ dd Š mz z m } ~ nz z mz~ } ~ ~ ~ ~ Š mz ~ } ~ rz Š mz ~ n} rl 2) 리프킨의비판 ~ fœ} ~ ~ ~ Š mz } r ~z rl} ~ ~d ~ m mz ~ x œ } n y ~ nyy } y } p ~ ~ yz y ž~ mmn m~ y ~ } Ž p r~ z ~yn ~ r{ ~ ~ ~yy ~ y {

13 Ûø ² ql zn ~ r{ Šn~ ~yy ~ ~ zn Š mz } fœ } ~ zn Š mz } fœ } z f } ~ p ~ { z {n p } ~ ~ } ~ z d ~r~ Š mz } ~ { p yx ~ n n~ d z zn ~ qz fœ zn ~ mz } d n ~ zn { ~ } ~ ~ ~ } z n ~~ Š n ~ r~ Š mz z ~ ~ ~ ~ Š mz } } ~ ~z Š mz zn ~ ~n p z ~ } m ~} r nšmz } ~op n ~ ~Š mz } ~n n} ~ ~ ~ ~ ~m z Š mz ~ r~ ~ ~ pz z ~ ~ z f ~ ~y z f l zn l~ } { m} n ~ ~ r }~Šz n mz ~ ~nz ~ } m ~ ~} n zlm mz~ ~n o ƒ~ ~ n }s ~n d} r d } nd ~ ~z Š mz } ~op n ƒš ~ } m Š mz } n} z~ } m } ~ ~ l~ ~n ~ z ~ ~ ~ Ž Š mz ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~zn q~ Š mz } Š mz } ~ ~ n q} } fœ ~ ~ z } r ž~ z žr z ~~ } q~ r~ ~} 5LILNLQ zn ~ } n ~ q~ Š mz ~ } zz zz m zz~ } z ~ p } } ~ f} q~ ~~ )RUHLJQ $IIDLUV z 6FKZDEz f~z

14 u æ ] y on~ j m ~ x n{ m n pp r }s m p ~ } y ~ ~ z ~ n zz~ } } ~ ~zr ~ n Š mz ~ z~~ ~ q~ m mz ~ } r o } rr Ž} } ~ fœ n q~ p } ~ p~ ~ ~ o m~ ~ } m mz } } ~~~ ~ } ~ Š mz ~ ~ y rz Š mz } pghilqlqj WHFKQRORJLHVz z~ o{ }{ rr Ž zn ~ } Š mz } dy " ƒ o } mz ~ r Žp ~z zd ~ ~ n p ~ zn mz ~ zl ~n ~r~ x~ ~ r p z o p} m mz } Œ p ~ n dzn m p~ ~ y p ž JHQHUDO SXUSRVH WHFKQRORJ\ SODWIRUP} n m mz ~ ~ x ~ ~r~ ~ z aš mz } Ÿ! { ~ ~n z Ÿ! ~ p mz ~ ~n p Š mz Š mz Š mz r ƒ} ~ ~op r x z 79 ~ z n n} ~m z ~ r o p rr z ~Š{ rr ~~Š ~ ~ 5LINLQ~ } y

15 Ûø ² ql Ⅲ. 산업혁명의판단기준 1. 산업혁명의성립조건은무엇인가? qz ~ fœ~ } ~~y ~ m~ Šmz ~xšmz ~z~~ mz } œ q~ ~ ~z ~ ~ zy ~ ~ ~ œ } ~ ƒ mz ~ œ ~ yy z ~ Š~ Š~ œ p ~ n mz ~ ~y } ~y ~ œ } mz ~ n } m ~ ~z n q } ~ } r q} ~ o }{ ~ rr Ž} m mz ~ œ } r } ž~ mmn ƒ{ p r ~ Šn} } p~ ~~ p ž~ ~ } r ~ ~ ~} q~ } } ~ x ~ m ~ } ~~~ j x z Š mz ~ zz ~ Ž ~ r x y ~ ~ ~ z ~ ~ ~ ~ } } z ~ } ~ ~ } p ~ ƒ ~ r p r ~ Šn ~ } ~ r p~ { p ž~ ~ } } ~ p ~ ~ ~ ~zn mz ~ n } ž~ mmn ƒ{ ~ p~ y p ~} ~ pl ~ x p~ mz ~ zl ~ xyn ~~ mz ~ zlzn r ~ p ~ mz ~ n ~ dd n mz ~ n } d } n r mz ~ zl ~n z ~ ~ mz ld ~~ ~ zm mz ~ n } n y ~ Ž ~ ~ mz } a z zz z ~d ~ ~ d y rl} y} ~

16 u æ ] y 2. 산업화의 4대요소로재구성한산업혁명의역사 mz ~ n } Ž } mz ~ zl m ~} ~ zn ~ ~ onp } ~ } r ~ pl ~~ onp ~ zn aš mz ~ zl r~ p ~ ~ l r} ~ z ~ }rÿ! ~ yp~ Ÿ! aš mz ~ zl { d Š mz Š mz Š mz " r a a a a a " a " z ~ ~ mz p } l z z ƒ ~ mz mz r ~Š r p d~ž ~z { ~ ƒ mz z r ƒ o ~Š z { ƒ nr f lm n ƒš Ÿ r p p r~ m zn p~ z 7 ~y } prr Ž ~ ~ pz r~ ~ ~ zx r mz 3/& xœ '1$ ~ p y,%0 3& ~ y p~ } p~ Šy p m ~ z r~ z~ n~ z~ r ~ o~ n~z ~ z~ mz n ~ nfr l l n œ pz ~~ ~ p~ l r y ~ zl ~ ~ ~ onp S ~ } p mz z ž ~ mzl Ÿ! zn ~ Š mz } az z} r} ~y}

17 Ûø ² ql z z ƒ ~zn~ r~ mz } Š mz } ~ l z r ~ l n ~ { ~ ~~ y ~y Š mz } az ~ } r} ~y} zmz mz r ~Šzn~ r~ mz } ~ r~ l z ~ n~ z ~ mz prr ~ Ž pz ~~ ~ r ž ~ z } y Š mz } ~ ~} r} ~y} ~ ~ } Ž ~ r~ l z ~ r n ~ nfr{ p~ l mzl p } } y ~ r ~ rl x{n ~ mz ~ zld mz ~ n } Š} mz } Ž r o } ~ yn } z r o p} mz }d ~ } p r ~ ~z f p l ~~ r Š mz ~ } ro~~ ~ o~ m ~ Ž ~~ { dz~ z n zn np ~ /DQGHV n { onp zz r} Ž n zn Š mz ~ } np zonp ~ zn ~ ~~ ~} r n o~ z mmp rp} mz ~ } f } mz ~ o x ~ ~ o m zyn ~ mz } n p ~} mz } ~ } xzn ~ žš } ~ ~ mz ~ o ~ ~ Š mz ~ ~p n p ~ mz ~ zl ~ y onp { ~ z } Š mz Š mz z } ~ p~ Š mz z mz ~ ozn r ~z ~ r~ m n ~ { } m mz } y mmnzn ~z} ~ mm Ÿ~ mr ~ m p ~ m} n mm~ } ƒ } rmz~ m} nz Š mz z ~z z mz~ z~y m zz m prr ~~

18 u æ ] y ~ z } Š mz } ~ n} Šmz z m prr mz dd} mz m~ } ~ ~} mz ~ n} rr mmrr rr rrr }prr } ~ ~~ m ~ ~ } np ~Š f ~ r Ÿ aš mz mz o~ ~ n { S ~z f Š mz z o~ z pzn ~ r~ zz r mmp r dz z ƒ np yd o~z ~ zz z ~ r~mz ~ r~ } z n} ~ ~ ~ Š ~ } p} ~Š{ f Ÿ~ z xx r { ~ ~ } mmp~ r~ ~y ~ ~ m r p~ n y z Š mz ~ lr} ~z d~ m ~ ~ }~~ } ~z p~,7{ } n} x z ~} mmp ~ PLQRU r} ~ p ~ ~ Š mz Š mz } ~ z mz d ~ ~ ƒ Š mz } Š mz ~ y } mz ~ ~d r p~ ~} } ~ p ~

19 Ûø ² ql onpz Š mz Š mz } p} Š y p ~ Šmz Š mz } x x Š mz Š mz } zl zn l ~Šmz ~Šmz } ~~ ~ zn ~ Š mz } mz ~ o x Šmz ~ mmn ƒ z ~ } } ~ } Š mz p~ Šd mz ~ n zd y } ~ ~n Š mz Š mz } zl lr~ x ~~ ~zn ~ ~ 3. 산업혁명의성립조건 ~m~ ~ zlzn ~ mz } x r x~ n ~d } d Ž p ~ Š mz } n ~ Ž ~Šmz ~ } Ž z } Ž } } x ~~m ~ mz mz ž~ mmn ƒ o ~d } dzn r~ m o~ m r ~} n m mz } ŠŽ mz ~ n } y ~ ~ } " } r x~n ~ Ž yy mz ~ n } ~ ~ d } } ~ z ymz ~ o mmp z ~ ~ r{ ~ ž~ mmn~ ƒ mz ~ p ~ x}" Ÿ ~ m mn~ ƒ x mz ~ o n ~ } dm mz~ m mmn} Ÿz ~} ~ mz ~ p ~ x}" ~ } z n ~ zn } r x~n ~ m~ Ž mz ~ n } x ~ ~ ~ n ~ mz o ~d } dzn r~ m

20 u æ ] y ž~ mmn ƒ ~y mz ~ p ~} ~ zn o ~d ž } a o x ~ ž~ mmn { } ~ y ~ ~ ~ ~ n ~ ž~ mmn ƒ Ÿ ~ x mz o~ ~d } d ~~ m r ~} n ~ } mz ~ m mz ~ p ~} ~ mmn Ÿ ~ ~ nz ~ ~ mmn z žš x of~~ ~ ~ p ~ ~ ~ Ÿ ~ mmn ƒ z~ ~ } mz ~ } y z ~ l~z ~~ m z ~ n ~ } } z l Ⅳ. 4 차산업혁명론의타당성재검토 ~ }zn r mz ~ n } } q~ Š mz ~ ~ Š mz ~ ~y ~ " } { ~" } r } nd p~ mz z { ~ "~ d r~ d ~yn Š ~} e~z " ~ ~ } Š m ~ 1. 산업혁명에해당하는큰변화가올것인가? }zn mz z z ~}} œ } }n ~m~ Ž yy x ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Ž ~ Š m~ mz mz ž~ mmn ƒ o ~d } dzn r~ m o~ m r ~} n m mz } ŠŽ

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