16-27( 통권 700 호 ) 2016.07.08 - 아세안, 생산기지로서의역할확대
본보고서에있는내용을인용또는전재하시기위해서는본연구원의허락을얻어야하며, 보고서내용에대한문의는아래와같이하여주시기바랍니다. 총괄 ( 경제연구실장 ) : 주원이사대우 (2072-6235, juwon@hri.co.kr) 경제연구실 / 동향분석팀 : : 조규림선임연구원 (2072-6240, jogyurim@hri.co.kr) 오준범연구원 (2072-6247, jboh19@hri.co.kr)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary i
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ii
< 세계수출및 GDP 대비아세안비중 > < 중국과아세안의외국인직접투자추이 > 1) 아세안 (Association of South-East Asian Nations) 은브루나이, 미얀마, 라오스, 캄보디아, 인도네시아, 말레이시아, 필리핀, 싱가포르, 태국, 베트남의 10 개국으로이루어진지역협력기구임. 1
< 한중일의對아세안교역비중 > < 한중일의對아세안외국인직접투자 > 2
2) 산업간무역은노동및자본등생산요소의차이에의해발생하는무역으로국가간특정산업의품목을수출하거나수입하는형태의무역을의미. 반면산업내무역은동일산업에속하는품목간교역이동시발생하는것으로생산품의품질, 제품의다양성, 기업의시장진출등으로인해발생하는무역을의미. 3) 아세안 -5 를제외한국가들의경우산업내무역중수평적무역과수직적무역을분류하기위한품목별수출입단가를 90% 이상산출할수없어제외. 단, 싱가포르는품목별수출입단가를산출할수있지만생산기지로서부적합하기때문에제외. 4) Fontagné, Lionel, and Michael Freudenberg. Intra-industry trade: methodological issues reconsidered. Vol. 97. No. 1. Paris: CEPII, 1997. 5) 수평적무역은양국간질적으로동일한재화의무역을의미하며, 수직적무역은기술적또는질적인차별성이 3
존재하는재화의무역을의미. 이때가격이재화의질적인차이를반영한다는가정하에환율변동등에의한영향을고려해수출입단가의차이가 25% 이내라면질적인차이가없는것으로판단. 6) 이는중국의가공무역제한조치와중간재자급률확대등과도밀접한관련이있음. 4
< 한국의對중국, 對일본및對아세안교역 > 2000 2014 2000 2014 2000 2014 0.7 (0.4) 6.2 (0.4) 20.6 (16.1) 19.5 (2.2) -19.9-13.2 156.7 (84.9) 1084.7 (74.6) 64.3 (50.3) 560.4 (62.2) 92.3 524.3 18.2 (9.9) 307.3 (21.1) 17.6 (13.8) 185.1 (20.6) 0.6 122.2 8.9 (4.8) 54.9 (3.8) 25.4 (19.8) 135.5 (15.0) -16.4-80.6 1.9 (0.9) 5.3 (1.6) 2.9 (0.9) 20.6 (3.8) -0.9-15.3 131.2 (64.1) 238.6 (74.0) 223.2 (70.1) 394.6 (73.4) -92.0-156.1 26.3 (12.9) 40.0 (12.4) 80.5 (25.3) 94.3 (17.5) -54.2-54.4 45.1 (22.1) 38.5 (11.9) 11.7 (3.7) 28.2 (5.2) 33.5 10.3 0.4 (0.3) 3.1 (0.5) 24.8 (17.8) 67.9 (17.0) -24.4-64.8 113.6 (80.8) 470.4 (79.8) 96.5 (69.2) 231.0 (57.7) 17.1 239.4 16.9 (12.0) 84.1 (14.3) 10.9 (7.8) 26.7 (6.7) 6.1 57.3 9.8 (6.9) 31.7 (5.4) 7.2 (5.2) 74.8 (18.7) 2.6-43.1 5
< 중국의對일본및對아세안교역 > 2000 2014 2000 2014 2000 2014 24.8 (6.0) 21.0 (1.4) 5.2 (1.3) 42.5 (2.6) 19.6-21.5 115.2 (27.7) 593.8 (39.8) 302.5 (72.9) 1069.6 (65.9) -187.3-475.8 43.3 (10.4) 333.4 (22.3) 88.3 (21.3) 371.3 (22.9) -45.0-38.0 232.8 (55.9) 545.5 (36.5) 19.0 (4.6) 140.1 (8.6) 213.8 405.4 11.3 (10.4) 15.8 (0.8) 31.0 (18.4) 250.6 (15.7) -19.7-234.8 56.0 (51.5) 1183.0 (57.2) 117.8 (69.9) 1032.0 (64.8) -61.8 150.9 17.2 (15.8) 422.5 (20.4) 13.5 (8.0) 172.7 (10.8) 3.7 249.7 24.2 (22.2) 447.1 (21.6) 6.4 (3.8) 138.2 (8.7) 17.8 308.9 7) 중국이일본으로수출하는중간재와자본재비중도크게증가하고있다는점도중요한모습임. 6
< 일본의對아세안교역 > 2000 2014 2000 2014 2000 2014 1.2 (0.3) 7.2 (0.9) 62.3 (12.4) 149.1 (14.9) -61.1-142.0 342.5 (75.0) 571.8 (72.6) 263.7 (52.6) 558.0 (55.7) 78.9 13.7 91.6 (20.1) 164.4 (20.9) 73.5 (14.7) 82.6 (8.2) 18.1 81.9 21.5 (4.7) 43.7 (5.6) 101.9 (20.3) 212.5 (21.2) -80.4-168.8 7
< 한 - 중간가공단계별분업구조변화 > 2000 2005 2010 2014 53.9 48.0 34.2 34.2 46.1 52.0 65.8 65.8 7.7 10.6 12.7 9.2 16.3 31.7 42.5 49.1 22.2 9.6 10.6 7.6 33.2 24.5 60.9 20.4 66.8 75.5 39.1 79.6 20.8 4.1 13.2 4.6 23.4 58.0 24.6 67.0 68.1 13.4 1.2 8.0 59.3 69.0 71.1 70.0 40.7 31.0 28.9 30.0 13.6 6.4 7.3 4.9 15.4 21.4 15.5 21.0 11.6 3.2 6.0 4.2 8) 한중일및아세안간교역은중간재와자본재, 소비재중심이기때문에본절에서원자재는제외함. 8
< 한 - 일간가공단계별분업구조변화 > 2000 2005 2010 2014 47.0 44.2 39.0 29.4 53.0 55.8 61.0 70.6 6.4 23.2 20.5 23.6 20.3 5.4 2.8 4.7 26.4 27.2 37.8 42.2 64.0 50.9 64.6 52.5 36.0 49.1 35.4 47.5 2.8 2.2 5.1 6.9 4.2 8.0 3.2 5.5 29.1 38.9 27.2 35.1 65.8 45.8 47.3 60.2 34.2 54.2 52.7 39.8 3.4 5.8 1.7 3.6 7.0 10.0 10.7 9.5 23.8 38.3 40.3 26.7 9
< 한 - 아세안간가공단계별분업구조변화 > 2000 2005 2010 2014 37.5 46.3 50.4 51.7 62.5 53.7 49.6 48.3 6.7 15.5 29.4 14.0 12.3 18.0 10.7 27.6 43.5 20.2 9.4 6.6 60.6 66.1 72.7 57.4 39.4 33.9 27.3 42.6 11.0 3.4 1.5 2.2 2.5 19.0 11.1 16.6 26.0 11.5 14.7 23.8 81.6 86.5 83.4 85.9 18.4 13.5 16.6 14.1 4.0 2.1 1.8 2.5 5.1 6.8 8.8 6.7 9.2 4.6 6.0 4.9 10
< 중 - 일간가공단계별분업구조변화 > 2000 2005 2010 2014 46.0 36.8 34.1 33.9 54.0 63.2 65.9 66.1 10.1 15.8 10.3 12.9 7.4 12.1 2.7 3.7 36.5 35.3 52.9 49.4 52.9 53.8 62.5 61.9 47.1 46.2 37.5 38.1 32.6 40.0 24.5 26.6 10.5 4.1 2.6 4.3 4.0 2.1 10.5 7.1 90.8 88.1 87.6 89.8 9.2 11.9 12.4 10.2 2.7 4.9 0.5 5.0 2.4 1.5 5.8 1.0 4.1 5.5 6.1 4.1 11
< 중 - 아세안간가공단계별분업구조변화 > 2000 2005 2010 2014 54.9 67.3 66.4 52.2 45.1 32.7 33.6 47.8 9.1 14.0 8.9 8.4 8.9 7.4 4.3 5.7 27.0 11.3 20.4 33.7 42.1 68.4 79.1 63.6 57.9 31.6 20.9 36.4 42.6 24.5 15.5 24.7 12.1 5.5 1.5 7.5 3.2 1.6 3.9 4.2 81.7 72.7 73.6 79.6 18.3 27.3 26.4 20.4 7.1 9.8 3.8 8.9 6.3 8.5 13.0 4.9 5.0 9.0 9.7 6.6 12
< 일 - 아세안간가공단계별분업구조변화 > 2000 2005 2010 2014 42.4 47.3 47.1 49.5 57.6 52.7 52.9 50.5 9.8 11.4 10.2 9.8 38.1 34.5 27.5 25.6 9.6 6.8 15.2 15.2 69.9 68.6 67.7 61.6 30.1 31.4 32.3 38.4 7.5 4.9 5.9 10.7 19.1 19.4 18.9 20.3 3.5 7.2 7.5 7.3 87.0 84.5 84.8 84.6 13.0 15.5 15.2 15.4 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.9 8.1 11.8 8.7 10.1 2.3 1.6 4.4 2.3 13
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