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1 * ** ***. (18-24 ), (18-22 ), (60 ), (60 ) 4..,,, OLS VAR VEC., VEC (-)., : , : , : * 2.. ** () (kangsb7077@naver.com) *** (cheolsung@hanyang.ac.kr).

2 勞動經濟論集第卷第號., (-) (+). (monopsony labor market) (-) (+) , (Minimum Wage Council)., (long run effect),. (non-stationarity), (endogeneity)

3 ... (+),..,,, OLS VAR VEC., VEC (variance decomposition) (impulse response), (-).,.. Ⅱ, Ⅲ,. Ⅳ , Ⅴ , Brown, Giloy, and Kohen(1983), Brown(1988). Brown, Giloy, and Kohen(1983) CPS OLS GLS 10% (16 19 ) 1%. Brown(1988),

4 勞動經濟論集第卷第號 % 1~3%, Wang-Sheng Lee et al.(2011). 1990,, (+). Card(1992), Card and Krueger(1994), Card(1992) 1990 ( 州 ). Card and Krueger(1994) ( 州 ) ( 州 ). Card and Krueger Myth and Measurement (1995),...,,, Card and Krueger(1994), Neumark and Wascher(1995, 2000). (-). Neumark and

5 Wascher(1995) CPS (more-skilled) (lower-skilled). Neumark and Wascher(2000) Card and Krueger(1994) (telephone survey) (payroll) Newmark et al.(2006) , 6, , Burkhauser and Couch and Wittenburg(2000), Williams and Mills(2001), Bazen and Marimoutou(2002) , , -,. (2011), (2008), (2008). (2011) (KLIPS),,. (2008) (survey) %. (2008).

6 勞動經濟論集第卷第號. (2008), (2010). (2008),.. (2010) OES 10% 1.6%, 1.1%. (2012). 3.,,. -,. (long run time series data). 10 (teenager)

7 ., 20.,,.,.. [ 1] ( ). - U - (age-wage profile) U ,., [ 1], , 30. (full time). 10. ( ) ( 1) 60 ( 3), ( 2) 60 ( 4) 4. 1) 1 2, ) 17,.

8 勞動經濟論集第卷第號 최저임금적용률 이상 연령 여성 남성 :,. < 1> 4 13 ( ), ( / ).,,. (%) (%)

9 Kaitz. Kaitz. t Kaitz, t (), t, i () 2), t, i, t, i 3) ( )., Kaitz (weight). Kaitz (degree) (strength). Kaitz., 0, Kaitz 0. ( ) Kaitz 2) (10 ) (Wellington(1991) ) (Brown et. al((1983), Williams et. al(2001) ).. 3)..

10 勞動經濟論集第卷第號. Kaitz., Kaitz 4),. 5) Kaitz. (endogeneity), (stationarity) VAR(Vector Auto Regression). (cointegration) VAR VEC(Vector Error Correction). VEC (non-stationary) VAR. VEC, VEC.. 4) Card and Krueger(1995) Kaitz, Kaitz lag. 5) Kaitz,. Kaitz ( / ) Kaitz. Wang-Sheng Lee and Sandy Suardi(2011), (2008).

11 ,.. 6) Kaitz ( ) 10,. Kaitz [ 2]. ( 1, 2) ( 3,4), Kaitz, Kaitz.,, Kaitz. Kaitz, , , 10 6) 1 3, ,

12 勞動經濟論集第卷第號 그룹 1 그룹 2 그룹 3 그룹 4 : Kaitz., 2001, Kaitz, Kaitz (30~40 ) (ur_adult) 7) (pop), (enp) [ 3] [ 5]., (ur_adult) IMF, (pop), ( 1, 2), ( 3, 4). (,, 4 ) 8) 7) (30 40 ) (ur_adult).. (30 40 ),.

13 그룹1 그룹2 그룹3 그룹4 :,,. :,, 그룹1 그룹2 :,,, IMF. (stationarity), (cointegration). VEC 8),, 4.

14 勞動經濟論集第卷第號. < 2> (ep), Kaitz (kaitz), (ur_adult), (pop), (enp) (unit root test). ADF(Augmented Dickey-fuller) test PP(Phillips-Perron) test. (trend) ADF test,. (non-stationarity). (ep) Kaitz (kaitz) ADF test PP test trend trend trend trend ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** (ur_adult) ** ** ** ** (pop) (enp) ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 2.241** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** : 1) ** unit root 5%. 2) (test) (intercept), log.

15 Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob None * At most 1 * At most 2 * At most 3 * At most None * At most 1 * At most 2 * At most At most None * At most At most At most None * At most 1 * At most 2 * At most : 1) (intercept), (trend), 3 (seas), IMF (dimf). 2) lag AIC SC 4. 3) log... VAR VEC. < 3>. 10% 1. OLS VAR VEC.

16 勞動經濟論集第卷第號 VEC (endogenous variable) (log(ep)), Kaitz (log(kaitz)), (log(ur_adult)), (log(pop)), (log(enp)), (constant), (trend), 3 (seas(2),seas(3),seas(4)), IMF (dimf). lag AIC 4. < 4> VEC (variance decomposition).,, %, %. 1 2 period log (ep_g1) log (kaitz_g1) log (ep_g2) log (kaitz_g2) period log (ep_g3) 3 4 log (kaitz_g3) log (ep_g4) log (kaitz_g4) : ordering log(kaitz), log(ep), log(ur), log(pop), log(enp). (residual) ( ).

17 Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G1) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G1) Innovation Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G2) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G2) Innovation Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G3) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G3) Innovation Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G4) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G4) Innovation VEC (impulse response) [ 6]. 8 (-). 10% 8, 1 1.4%, 2 0.6%, 3 0.4%, 4-1.0% (-)., 4 (falsification test). 4 < 5>. 0 0.

18 勞動經濟論集第卷第號 (%) (%) Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G5) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G5) Innovation Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G6) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G6) Innovation Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G7) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G7) Innovation Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G8) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G8) Innovation

19 [ 7], 0, 5(30 34 ) (+). [ 7] [ 6]., (-). (-)., (-). VEC.,,,..,, VEC..,, (OLS) VAR VEC.

20 勞動經濟論集第卷第號, VEC (-).,..,., ( ): (2010.5): , , : ( ): ( ): , Bazen, Stephen and Marimoutou, Velayoudom. Looking for a Needle in a Haystack? A Re-examination of the Time Series Relationship between Teenage Employment and Minimum Wages in the United States. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 64 (1) (December 2002): Brown, Charles and Gilroy, Curtis and Kohen, Andrew. Time-Series Evidence of the Effect of the Minimum Wage on Youth Employment and Unemployment." Journal of Human Resources 18 (1) (Winter 1983): Brown, Charles. Minimum Wage Laws: Are They Overrated? Journal of Economic

21 Perspectives 2 (3) (Summer 1988): Burkhauser, Richard V. and Couch, Kenneth A.and Wittenburg, David C. Who Minimum Wage Increases Bite: An Analysis Using Monthly Data from the SIPP and the CPS. Southern Economic Journal 67 (1) (July 2000): A Reassessment of the New Economics of the Minimum Wage Literature with Monthly Data from the Current Population Survey. Journal of Labor Economics 18 (4) (October 2000): Card, D. and Krueger, A. Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review 84 (4) (September 1994): Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage. Princeton University Press, Card, D. Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum wage. Industrial and Labor Relations Review 46 (1) (October 1992): Neumark, David and Wascher, William. The Effects of Minimum Wages on Teenage Employment and Enrollment: Evidence from Matched CPS Surveys. NBER Working Paper 5092 (April 1995).. Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Comment. 90 (5) (December 2000): Minimum Wages and Employment: A Review of Evidence from the New Minimum Wage Research. NBER Working Paper (November 2006). Wang-Sheng Lee and Sandy Suardi. Minimum Wages and Employment: Reconsidering the Use of a Time Series Approach as an Evaluation Tool. British Journal of Industrial Relations 49 (2) (July 2011): Wellington, A. J. Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Employment Status of Youths: An Update. The Journal of Human Resources 26 (1) (Winter 1991): Williams, Nicolas and Mills, Jeffrey A. The minimum wage and teenage employment: evidence from time series. Applied Economics 33 (3) (February 2001):

22 勞動經濟論集第卷第號 abstract We analyze the effect of the minimum wage on employment using time series data forr groups of individuals most affected by the minimum wage: young males (18 to 24 years old), young females (18 to 22 years old), old males (60 years and older) and old females (60 years and older). Our findings are as follows. First, a unit root test says that the variables like minimum wages and employments are non-stationary variables and they have cointegrational relations each other. It says that in this case, VEC is more suitable than OLS or VAR. Second, an increase of the minimum wage is found to have a weak but persistently negative effect on employment. Keywords : minimum wage, time series, Kaitz index, cointegration, VEC

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