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1 ª Œª Œ 27ƒ 3D Á œ pp. 269~274 ª d x sƒ» w The Development of Safety Evaluation Criteria for the Alignment Design Consistency Methods on Rural Highways Á Á Lee, SooilÁWon, JaimuÁLee, Heeseung Abstract This thesis focused on the research of a method to evaluate and improve alignment design consistency in the respect of safety. The design consistency depends on the conformance between drivers expectancy and highway geometry, so that the evaluation criteria for consistency should efficiently represent drivers behavioral characteristics. Under the conditions, this research included a new evaluation criteria development and an analysis on how to change evaluation criteria according to roadway alignments, to evaluate safety. The newly developed evaluation criteria, spacing mean represented the drivers behavioral characteristics effectively on association area for a roadway segment alignment. Additionally the interrelationship with accident history data is also high. The existing operating speed evaluation criterion had the limit on the safety validation of roadway alignments association area because of lack of operating speed expectation method. However, new evaluation criteria model can supplement the limited existing criterion. The new evaluation criteria is intended for application by highway agencies to estimate the safety performance an existing or proposed roadway. The evaluation criteria model can be used to compare the anticipated safety performance of two or more geometric alternatives for a proposed highway improvement. Keywords : alignment design consistency, evaluation criteria, operating speed, spacing mean x d sƒwš w w. x»»w e» x sƒ t w k p w w. š w sƒ t x sƒ t w q w sƒw w. sƒ t x wk p wš š ùkû. w sƒ t x w d x sƒ w ƒ» w sƒ t x w ùkû. sƒ t x k w x sƒ sƒw»,» w sƒ y q. w : x, sƒ t, w, 1. ƒ w wù x z dw» w w. š» l w» w š ù w š œw. z w z š. w d w * z Á w ( **w w w ( *** z Á Áw w w ( 27ƒ 3D œ 269 m w w ù n w sƒ x IHSDM (Interactive Highway Safety Design Model). x mw»w z sƒw zƒ ƒ w m e z y jš w (FHWA, 2004). ü x sƒw

2 w š, w œ x sƒ v š. sƒ x(ihsdm) wù x w x sƒ» wš w. w x š w»w wp ³ w wš w. w,» sƒ w wp w x d sƒ w» w. 2. w š w š ü w» w w. x w ü š w w š.», r 1998 w l 2004 ½ ¼ š w š. sƒ»» t 1.» w» w w w d sƒ» š š ƒ r š w (headway) «wù š w w w y w y ü xy x sƒ r j ƒ ƒ w š. w, ƒ» w, w w w š.»w y xy j» w 37y 22.6km NC-97» ew w. p w» +š Ø wù (set) w d w w w y w. x» e w. e ƒ w MAD( r ) 1) w. MAD» (1). MAD = median x i x med (1)» j x sƒ» ù š w w.,»» w w y w y yw. 270», x i = x d x med = x = MAD ³ s w t r (Correction factor) š wš w ƒ m ƒ w w š w. (headway) 6 w,, ƒ š ³ w. K-S ùkü. 1) MAD Median Absolute Deviation w e w. ª Œª Œ

3 One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test Headway Spacing One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test Speed N Normal Parameters a.b Mean Std. Deviation Most Extreme Absolute Differences Positive Negative Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z Asymp. Sig.(2-tailed) ln (headway) ln (spacing) N Normal Parameters a.b Mean Std. Deviation Most Extreme Absolute (SM)»w x w. š ƒ v z x ùkü. ƒ (SM), s, ¼ Ás»w w ƒ. ù, ¼ w ùkû., w x x ƒ w. w s³ (SM) z x ùkù. y = ln(x) R 2 =0.679 (2) (8.1)», y: SM, x: ¼», (): tm Differences Positive Negative Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z Asymp. Sig.(2-tailed) a. Test distribution is Normal. b. Calculated from data ³ w» w ƒ. H 0 : ³ s. H 1 : ³ s. 2. (spacing) ³ s ùkû y w ln(spacing) w m w ƒ q. 4. sƒ x šƒ š j» x sƒw sƒ t w ƒ š. ƒ w w w, kƒ w ww w w. w w k w w ww w ù kùš. x w wp w w x s ƒw t wš w. x sƒw» w s³ SM(Spacing mean) w. w s³ SM t»w» w. sƒ x x š x ƒƒ w. 3. ln( ¼ ) 4.2 š š s³ (SM)»w x w w. w v x ùkü. š š»w, š, š, š w, s, ¼ Ás, r š w. ƒ, š w ùkûš ƒ s³ (SM) ùkû. 3D v ùkù x s x wì š w v w q. 27ƒ 3D œ 271

4 š w» w r 2 x» ù z z x w. 0-2% -5-0% t 2. š z x z x y = ln(x 1 )+0.884x x 3 R 2 = (8.1) (2.5) ( 2.2)», y: (SM), x 1 : š, x 2 :», x 3 : w(0:, 1: ) (): tm y = ln(x 1 ) 3.297x 2 R 2 = (6.0) ( 2.5)», y: (SM), x 1 : š», x 2 : w(0:, 1: ) (): tm y = ln(x) R 2 = (6.4)», y: (SM), x: š», (): tm ¾ de deƒ ww ùk x w š. t 3. x w MPB MAD Theil š » sƒ t K-S ³ š ùkû., ³ s p w 3 ù»., 6 ƒ ù» y ƒ (s³ût r ). fair( m ) poor( w ), good( yw ) ù. 4. z x 5. SM 5. x» 5.1 x w x w z x x w w. x w» w w» w ƒ š x w sƒw. ù, w x w ƒ š w» w. 90% x wš, ù 10% x w w. x Theil, MPB, MAD w. MPB d d 1.6~3.96 de d ùküš Theil 0 ƒ ³ s p t 4. SM x sƒ» s ƒ» good SM ß 4m fair 4m < SM ß 12m poor 12m < SM ) SM n s³ n+1 s³ 5.3 w sƒ t r» w ü ys sƒw. û e y ts w 820y 4 y s. 2 w sƒ» wš, x 2 w ù w 2 4 y w.» sƒ w y( V 85 ) ª Œª Œ

5 구의 차량군의 차간거리변화( SM)를 각 도로구간별의 Profile로 나타내어 안전성 진단결과를 나타내었다. 대안별 안 전성 진단결과를 살펴보면, 주행속도변화( V )에서 대안별 의 안전성 평가가 뚜렷히 나타나지 않았던 것이 차간거리변 85 그림 대안 의 평가결과 구분 주행 속도 차간 거리 그림 기본안 대안 대안 의 분석구간 개요, 1, profile 화( SM)에서는 대안1이 가장 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 기존의 보고서에서 전문가들이 대안1의 안전성에 가장 우수 한 점수를 준 것과 일치하는 결과로 차간거리변화( SM)의 평가기준의 유효성을 잘 보여준다고 할 수 있다. 도로의 안전성을 고려한 선형일관성의 평가지표가 여러 개 되는 경우에 하나의 안전성 평가결과를 내리는 것이 어려움 에 봉착할 경우가 종종 발생한다. 따라서, 기존의 평가지표 인 주행속도와 본 연구에서 제시한 차간거리의 장단점을 비 교분석하였고 하나의 평가기준을 고려하는 것보다는 두 개 모두를 고려하여 대안을 선택하는 방법이 바람직하다 하겠다. 그림 사례연구 지역 표 평가지표들의 장단점 비교 장점 단점 결과치로 속도차이를 제시 직선부의 주행속도예측이 해주어 안전성 인식측면에 되지 않아 하나의 값을 쓰 는 것이 한계 서 우수함 직선부,곡선부의예측모형 차간거리 차이는 이 모두 적합하여 모든 연 결과치인 안전성을 인식 계구간의 결과값이 안정적 하기에는 직접적으로 미흡함 으로 제시 가능함 결론 및 향후 연구과제 그림 기본안의 평가결과 9. 그림 第 卷第 號 27 3D 10. 대안 의 평가결과 年 月 도로의 안전성 관리에서 가장 중요한 문제점 중 하나는 현재와 계획된 도로의 안전성 성과를 예측하기 위한 합리적 인 방법의 부재이다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 도로의 안전성을 평가하기 위한 합리적인 평가방안을 개발하는데 연구의 주 안점을 두었다. 도로의 안전성을 평가하는 방법은 여러분야 로 나눌 수 있지만 본 연구에서는 선형의 설계일관성 부분 의 평가지표 및 평가기준을 개발하였다. 기존의 선형 설계일 관성 평가지표는 개별차량의 주행속도(V )를 이용하였지만, 본 연구에서는 차량군의 차간거리(SM)를 새로운 평가지표로 서 개발하였다. 이러한 평가지표를 개발하기 위해 일반국도 37호선의 종 단평면선형자료와 현장조사를 통한 검지기의 속도 및 차간 거리 자료를 이용하여 평가 지표모형을 개발하였다. 또한 사 례연구를 통하여 기존의 평가지표인의 한계점인 직선부의 주 행속도예측 때문에 발생하는 부분을 새로 개발된 차간거리 평가지표로 잘 설명될 수 있음을 보여주었다. 따라서, 본 연 구에서 개발된 선형 설계일관성 평가지표를 현재와 계획된 도로의 안전성 성과를 예측하는 합리적인 방안으로 제안할 수 있다. 본 연구에서 시간적 한계, 공간적 한계, 자료의 한계 등에 85 profile profile 273

6 w wz w š w. 1. š š ƒ w ƒ v w. x š j ù x» w š.» w ƒ w. 2. sww x. x w. š w x sww w w w, w š x ƒ¾ w x w sƒ x v wù ƒ 4 š ³ y š. 2 k y w ƒ v w. š x k(2004) sƒ x w», w m. wk (2002) 2 sƒ w, w mwz, w mwz, 20«1y. Bradley Efron & Robert J. Tibshirani (1993) An Introduction to the Bootstrap, Chapman & Hall. Collins, K. M. and Krammes, R. A. (1996) Preliminary Validation of a Speed-Profile Model for Design Consistency Evaluation, TRR 1523,GTRB. FHWA (2004) Interactive Highway Safety Design Model. Hauer, E. (1997) Observational Before-After Studies in Road Safety: Estimating the Effect of Highway and Traffic Engineering Measures on Road Safety, Pergamon. Helmut T. Zwahlen (1993) Optimal Application and Placement of Roadside Reflective Devices for Curves on Two-Lane Rural Highways, FHWA/OH-94/011, Industrial and Systems Engineering of Ohio University, Ohio DOT. Kataja Vogel (2003) A comparison of headway and time to collision as safety indicators, Accident analysis & prevention 35. Katja Vogel (2002) What characterizes a free vehicle in an urban area?, Transpotation research part F 5. Lamm, R. et al. (1998) Recommendations for Evaluating Horizontal Design Consistency Based on Investigations in the States of the New York, TRR 1122, TRB. Lamm, R. et al. (1999) Highway Design and Traffic Safety Engineering Handbook, Mcgraw-hill. Sirpa Rajalin (1997) Close-Following Drivers on two-lane highways, Accident analysis & prevention 29. ( : / : / : ) 274 ª Œª Œ

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