고령사회인공지능과로봇의미래 뉴스토마토 2016 은퇴전략포럼 2016. 9. 23 ( 목 ), 15:20~14:00 장병탁서울대학교컴퓨터공학부 & 인지과학 / 뇌과학협동과정인지로봇인공지능연구센터 (CRAIC) http://bi.snu.ac.kr/
목차 1. 인공지능혁명............. 3 머신러닝 / 딥러닝혁명, 글로벌기업동향 2. 스마트머신의등장........ 13 챗봇, 스마트로봇, 4차산업혁명 3. 인공지능로봇과미래의삶...... 23 헬스케어 AI, 도우미 / 친구 / 돌보미 / 반려자로봇 4. 미래 : 인간과인공지능의공진화........ 36 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 2
1. 인공지능혁명
인공지능 (AI) 사람처럼생각하고사람처럼행동하는기계 ( 컴퓨터, SW) 를개발 사람이기계보다잘하는일을기계가할수있도록하는연구 지능을필요로하는일을기계가할수있도록하는연구 1950: Turing s Paper, 1956: Artificial Intelligence (AI) c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 4
인공지능의역사 1970-1980 년대 : 붐 전문가시스템 1982-1992: 제 5 세대컴퓨터계획 (FGCS) 1990 년대 : 암흑기 뉴럴넷, 유전자알고리즘, 퍼지로직 1990 대후반 : 인터넷, 웹, 전자상거래정보검색, 데이터마이닝 아마존, 이베이, 야후, 구글 2010 년대 : 부흥기 머신러닝 / 딥러닝 지능형에이전트 (AI 봇 ) IBM Deep Blue Chess Machine Beats Human Champion (1997) c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 5
성공사례 (2011- 현재 ) c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 6
알파고와머신러닝 / 딥러닝 2015.3 2016.3 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 7
머신러닝혁명 : 1986-2016 From programming to learning Automated- or self-programming Paradigm shift in S/W Self-improving systems Recursive positive cycle Pace of accelerated change Intelligence explosion
딥러닝산업화사례 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 9
인공지능학회 (NIPS) 의급성장 10
2011- 현재 : 글로벌기업투자동향 2005: DARPA Grand Challenge (Thrun) 2006: Deep Neural Networks (Hinton, Science) 2008: Neural Networks and Learning Machines (Haykin) 2009: Apple Siri personal assistant 2009: Google self-driving car 2011: IBM Watson AI supercomputer 2012: Google acquires DNNresearch (Hinton) 2012: Deep learning breakthroughs (Google, MS) 2013: Human Brain Project HBP (EU) 2013: Quantum AI Lab for machine learning (Google, NASA) 2013: Amazon Prime Air (Drones) 2013: Google acquires Boston Dynamics (Robotics) 2013: Facebook AI Lab in New York (LeCun) 2013: Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) 2014: Google acquires DeepMind for $400M 2014: Baidu Institute of Deep Learning in Silicon Valley (Ng) 2014: Jibo robot raises $25M by crowdfunding (MIT Breazeal) 2015: IARPA Machine Intelligence from Cortical Networks 2015: Musk donates $10M for safe AI research (Tesla) 2015: SoftBank sells Pepper robots 2015: OpenAI - $1B Company (Musk et al.) 2016: AlphaGo (Google DeepMind) c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 11
c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 12
2. 스마트머신의등장
로봇투자전문가 & 로봇기자 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 14
챗봇 페이스북챗봇 M 마이크로소프트챗봇 Tay c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/
휴머노이드로봇 Humanoid Robot Nao (Aldebaran) Life-Like Robots (Hanson Robotics) Emotion Robot Pepper (SoftBank) Atlas (Google Boston Dynamics) 16
The Rise of Smart Robots Mobile Robots 1999 Sony Aibo pet dog 2004 Robot Car Challenge 2008 Aldebaran Nao 2009 Willow Garage PR2 2010 Child robot icub 2012 ROS Foundation Personal Assistants 2011 Siri (Apple) 2012 Now (Google) 2014 Cortana (Microsoft) 2016 Allo (Google) Personal Robots 2014 Echo (Amazon) 2015 Pepper (SoftBank) 2016 Home (Google) 2016 Jibo (MIT) c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 17
뽀로로봇 (SNU) [Ha et al., AAAI-2015] 1)Pororo likes cookie 2)Eddy goes 3)Petty plays The ship is being pulled 비디오학습 교육용비디오 비디오개념학습 아이 학습패턴관찰에따른사용자모델링피드백 교육용로봇 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 18
Smart Machines Smart Machines Embodiedness Mindedness 19
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스마트머신 / 로봇의시대 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 21 2009, SNU Biointelligence Lab, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 21
Pepper + Watson + Google Car c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 22
3. 인공지능로봇과미래의삶
IBM Watson c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 24
금융 ( 로보어드바이저 ) Financial Advisor 빅데이터 + 금융알고리즘 (or Deep Learning) 추천포트폴리오 아직많은시제품들이 Deep Learning보다는금융알고리즘에의존 구체적인 Architecture는공개되지않음 시장전망 : $55 billion ( 현재 ) $2.2 trillion (2020) c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 25
Betterment 자동투자시스템 Betterment Automated goal-based 투자서비스 ETFs (Exchange-traded funds) IRAs (Individual Retirement Accounts) 등을제공 Auto-deposit Invest Excess Cash Rebalance Efficiency 고유의 weighted aggregation methodology를사용 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 26
Kensho WallStreet 전문가를위협하는 AI Warren: S/W solution on Big Data, Natural Language, Actionable Insights - 빅데이터분석을통해전세계주요사건이경제시장에미치는영향을분석, Visualization, 보고서자동생성 - 자연어를입력하여결과를확인 - 100 million 개의타입의경제질문에대답가능 - Ex. 허리케인에의해가장크게영향을받는지역은? - 골드만삭스및 CNBC와협약. CIA도사용 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 27
Kredit Aja / LoanGarage 신용도예측 Kredit Aja Predictive analytics를적용하여대출자와대출기관 ( 사람 ) 을연결 대출자에게는기존신용점수계산방법으로는얻을수없는새로운기회를제공 대출기관에게는리스크를최소화하고, 이윤을최대화 Social Media 같은추가적인데이터를기반으로정밀도를높이고있음 Plutus Software에서개발 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 28
FinGenius Technology FinGenius Q&A 시스템 Finance industry 에인공지능과자연어처리플랫폼을제공 자연어형태의 Question 을입력으로받음 유저의개인성향에맞는 Answer 를제공 정교한 bank-grade 와 enterprise-grade API 를제공하여 CRM, audit system 과상호작용할수있게함 Smart-knowledge distribution 과 help-desk automation 분야에응용 BMW, Panasonic 등에서사용중 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 29
IBM Health B, 2016.2 c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 30
DeepMind Health c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 31
Watson + Medtronic c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 32
Watson + Underarmer c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 33
Healthcare Robots c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 34
Eldercare Robots c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 35
4. 미래 : 인간과인공지능의공진화
미래 : 인간과기계의공진화 Her (2013) Robot & Frank (2012) Bicentennial Man (1999) Ex Machina (2015) c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 37
Humans ( 자연지능 ) and Machines ( 인공지능 ) Introspectionism - 1920 Psyche Behaviorism Cybernetics 1920-1950 Mind (= Computer) Cognitivism Symbolic AI 1950-1980 Brain Connectionism Neural Nets (ML) 1980 2010 Body Action Science Autonomous Robots 2010 Environment Embodied Mind Mind Machine ( = Smart Machines) c 2005-2016 SNU Biointelligence Laboratory, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ 38
Future: Cognitive AI Technology Cognitive AI AI with Deep Learning Superhuman AI Human-Level AI Works out own goals Agency Narrow AI Works out own methods, Follows given follows given goals goals and methods Time 1980 1990 2010 2020 2030 2050 Modified from Eliezer Yudkowsky & David Wood Free Will 39