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1 12 NOVEMBER 2014 신한 - 톰슨로이터코리아 2015 년세계금융환경및외환시장전망 오석태 suktae.oh@sgcib.com 1

2 세계금융시장의 4 대테마 주요국의정책과점검할거시지표 환율의향방은? 2

3 낮은인플레이션, 뉴노멀 선진 3 개국근원인플레이션 전세계적인낮은인플레이션은공급초과로인한현상? 디플레이션위험억제를위해선진국중앙은행의저금리정책이계속필요? 결국 영원한저금리 라는 뉴노멀 주장으로이어짐 2015 년미국의금리인상이실현될것인가가관건 3

4 수익을찾아서 : 시장변동성의하락 미국의주식, 채권, 외환변동성 저금리로인해전세계투자자들은 수익률제고 에사활을걸고있음 주로크레딧상품에몰리고있지만, 변동성을매도하기도함 저금리및신용스프레드의하락이많이진행된상태에서투자자들은선별적으로투자해야 지난 10 월전세계시장변동성의급등락은투자자에게좋은경고 그래도 파티가끝날때까지는춤을춰야 4

5 미국만돋보이는세계경제 선진 3 개국의금융위기이후 GDP 추이 미국이세계경제성장을주도하는모습은 2014 년에이어 2015 년에도계속될전망 이는자연스럽게달러화의강세및미국금리의상승으로이어질것 유럽과일본사이의 GDP 격차에도주목 유로화금리는아직도하락여지가남아있음 ( 미국금리상승의영향을덜받을듯 ) 5

6 유로존의 일본화 + 중국의 한국화 유로존의성장부진및낮은인플레이션의지속은 일본화 우려를낳고있음 최근경제지표는오히려일본이유로존보다양호한편 현재의어려움에서벗어나려면 ECB 의과감한부양책과아울러경제구조개혁, 독일의재정완화, 은행통합의진전등다방면의노력이필요 결국시장은 ECB 의 QE 실행을압박하고있음. 기업및지방정부부채문제에시달리는중국의모습은지난몇년동안가계부채문제를떠안고있는한국과닮은듯 가계부채의연착륙을유도하면서저성장이지속된한국의모습처럼, 중국역시부채연착륙과상대적저성장 (6-7%) 이몇년동안이어질전망 중국에서부채증가에의존하는과감한경기부양책이나올확률은낮음 거시지표에대한시장의관심이낮아지는것도중국과한국이비슷함 6

7 세계금융시장의 4 대테마 주요국의정책과점검할거시지표 환율의향방은? 7

8 미국 : 연준의금리인상이시작될것으로전망 미국경제에대한근본적인비관론을찾아보기어려워진세계금융시장 시간당평균임금상승률 시장의관심은결국연준의정책금리인상여부및그시점에집중 연준과시장이고용지표의개선을액면그대로믿지않는가운데, SG 는임금상승률 ( 시간당평균임금 ) 에주목 : 2% 를확실하게넘을경우인플레이션압력의현실화를뜻함 2014 년마지막 FOMC 회의에서 상당기간 문구를떼고, 금리인상은 2015 년 6 월에시작될것으로전망 2016 년시작될것으로예상되는연준의보유채권재투자중단은추가적인금리상승요인 8

9 유로존 : QE 확률은 35% 유로존의 로우플레이션 은 2015 년상반기까지이어질것으로전망 ECB 의자산확대규모는그대상이되는 ABS 와커버드본드시장의규모를감안할때 4,500 억유로에그칠것이며, 회사채매입도추가될가능성이크다. GDP 와근원인플레이션 SG 는시장최대의관심인 ECB 의국채매입 (QE) 확률을 35% 로봄. 유로존의근원인플레이션이마이너스가되거나 ( 확률 15%), 성장률과인플레이션이 2015 년상반기가지나도록 1% 위로회복되지않으면 ( 확률 20%) QE 가시행될듯. 다만, ECB 가매수한채권은선순위가될것으로보임 ( 민간투자자에게손해 ) 9

10 일본 : 아베노믹스여영원하라! SG 는아베노믹스가디플레이션을몰아내는데성공하고있다고봄 인플레이션과평균임금상승률 엔화약세가수출증대로이어지지는않았지만, 수출업체의수익을증가시켜고용회복과임금상승을가져왔다고평가 지난 10 월세계를놀라게한추가양적완화는소비세 2 차인상을앞둔정지작업으로해석 SG 는 2015 년 10 월소비세 2 차인상과함께추가적양적완화가또있을것으로전망 : 2% 인플레이션달성을위해서는현재의양적완화도부족하다고봄 10

11 중국 : 경착륙우려는계속됨 세계경제성장세가예전같지않은가운데정책당국은구조개혁과부채연착륙노력을지속하고있음 GDP 대비부채비율 여전한부채부담과과잉설비, 그리고주택시장의약세를감안하면경착륙우려는 2015 년에도지속됨 주택및인프라투자는지원하는반면 그림자금융 은계속규제하는선별적금융완화정책을예상 11

12 세계금융시장의 4 대테마 주요국의정책과점검할거시지표 환율의향방은? 12

13 달러화강세는컨센서스로굳어짐 미국과다른나라들의경제성장세및통화정책의차이가뚜렷이드러나면서달러화강세는컨센서스가됨 달러인덱스 미국금리인상의지연은세계금융시장의혼란, 또는미국경제성장세의약화에의해야기될것이며, 이또한달러강세재료 미국과다른나라들의성장세격차가줄어들어야의미있는달러화약세반전이실현될전망 달러화의 장기상승추세 가막시작되었다는견해도있음 Source : Thomson Reuters EIKON 13

14 유로및엔화환율 : 통화정책에주목 유로화의향방은 ECB 의 QE 시행여부에, 엔화의향방은일본은행의추가 QE 여부에달려있음. EURUSD, USDJPY 환율 유로화는 1.2, 달러엔은 120 이일차목표 ( 저항선 ) 로보이나, 유럽과일본에서 QE 가추가로시행된다면달러화강세가가속화될가능성도엿보임. Source : Thomson Reuters EIKON 14

15 한국은행정책금리는동결될것으로전망 일본의 QE 에도불구하고한국은행정책금리는 2015 년동결될것으로전망 시장일각에서기대하는한국은행추가금리인하의실현여부는 GDP 성장률및가계부채 / 부동산추이에달려있음 한국은행금리가추가인하된다면원화약세가더심해질수있음 한국은행이일본이주도하는 화폐전쟁 에동참할가능성은매우낮다고봄 은행권가계대출증가율 Household loan Mortgage loan Source: 한국은행 15

16 수출회복세가시화는원화강세재료 미국경제의회복이다른나라에도이어져한국의수출이회복된다면달러강세에도불구하고원달러환율은횡보하거나하락할수있음 그러나 2012 년이후한국의달러환산수출과산업생산은정체상태이며, 이는 미국만돋보이는세계경제 라는앞서본테마와일치하는현상 수출및산업생산증가율 Industrial production Exports Source: 통계청 16

17 원달러환율 : 세계시장의달러강세를무시할수없음 2001~07 년의환율추이를보면결국원달러환율의하락은세계적인달러약세와동시에진행된것 달러인덱스와원달러환율 따라서, 달러화의추세적강세가계속된다면원달러환율만하락추세를보이기는매우어려움 일단, 기술적으로중요한레벨은 1,150 원대로보임 Source : Thomson Reuters EIKON 17

18 APPENDIX - DISCLAIMER ANALYST CERTIFICATION Each author of this research report listed on the cover hereby certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views, including views about subject securities or issuers mentioned in the report, if any. No part of his or her compensation was, is or will be related, directly or indirectly to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The information herein is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any securities or other financial instrument and including any expression of opinion, has been obtained from or is based upon sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness although Société Générale ( SG ) believe it to be fair and not misleading or deceptive. SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, may from time to time deal in, profit from the trading of, hold or act as market-makers or act as advisers, brokers or bankers, in relation to the securities, or derivatives of persons, firms or entities mentioned in this publication, or be represented on the board of such persons, firms or entities. Employees of SG, and their affiliated companies in the SG Group, or individuals connected to them may from time to time have a position in or be holding any of the investments or related investments mentioned in this publication. SG and their affiliated companies in the SG Group are under no obligation to disclose or take account of this publication when advising or dealing with or for their customers. The views of SG reflected in this publication may change without notice. To the maximum extent possible at law, SG does not accept any liability whatsoever arising from the use of the material or information contained herein. Dealing in warrants and/or derivative products such as futures, options, and contracts for differences has specific risks and other significant aspects. You should not deal in these products unless you understand their nature and the extent of your exposure to risk. This publication is not intended for use by or targeted at retail customers. Should a retail customer obtain a copy of this report they should not base their investment decisions solely on the basis of this document but must seek independent financial advice. The financial instrument discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to currency exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or negative effect on the price of such securities or financial instruments, and investors in securities such as ADRs effectively assume this risk. SG does not provide any tax advice. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. Investments in general and derivatives in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market, counterparty default and liquidity risk. Trading in options involves additional risks and is not suitable for all investors. An option may become worthless by its expiration date, as it is a depreciating asset. Option ownership could result in significant loss or gain, especially for options of unhedged positions. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" at CONFLICTS OF INTEREST This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Société Générale (SG) analysts and/or strategists. Analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with SG sales and trading desk personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of a specific fixed income security or financial instrument, sector or other asset class. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the analyst(s) views and reports. In addition, analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, trading desk and firm revenues and competitive factors. As a general matter, SG and/or its affiliates normally make a market and trade as principal in fixed income securities discussed in research reports.. 18

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슬라이드 1

슬라이드 1 CJ 2007 CONTENTS 2006 CJ IR Presentation Overview 4 Non-performing Asset Company Profile Vision & Mission 4 4 - & 4-4 - & 4 - - - - ROE / EPS - - DreamWorks Animation Net Asset Value (NAV) Disclaimer IR