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1 Industry Outlook 한국석유화학산업의경쟁력과미래 黃相淵 미래에셋증권코리아리서치센터장 shwang@miraeasset.com September 2009

2 요약 한국석유화학산업은 70 년대부터정부주도의투자촉진으로인해수출주력산업으로성장 2008 년기준으로정유및석유화학부문의수출은 697 억달러로총수출의 16.5% 를차지하였음 원료를 100% 해외의존하고있어재고전략및환율이이익의주요변동요인이되고있음 최근에는중국과중동의설비증설이최대의변수가되고있음. 경쟁국의설비확대로인해범용수지보다는정밀화학분야로의이동이활발함 특히후방에강한 IT 산업인프라를갖추고있어소재부문의경쟁력확대가능성이높다고판단됨 2

3 Landscape of Korea chemical industry 원료공급이용이한 3 대해안권역, 길고대기업집단을중심으로발달되어왔음. 大山 Complex Samsung Total LG/Honam (Former Hyundai) 生産能力 390K BPD Refinery 2,610K(Ethylene Based) 蔚山 Complex 麗水 Complex GS Caltex LG Hanwha/Daelim(YNCC) Honam Cheil Industries Kumho 生産能力 SK S-Oil Hanwha/Daelim(YNCC) Honam 生産能力 1,420K BPD Refinery 1,230K Ethylene 730K BPD Refinery 3,500K(Ethylene Based) 3

4 Landscape of Korea chemical industry 한국의정유생산능력은태동기부터수출지향적으로발전했음. (000 barrels per day) 1,200 Refining Capacity Self sufficiency ratio(rhs) 1, Source: Mirae Asset Research 4

5 Landscape of Korea chemical industry 한국석유화학 ( 에틸렌기준 ) 생산은과거 10년간연평균 4.9% 로증가한반면수요는 3.1% 증가 총생산량의 ½가량을수출하고있어수익의해외의존도가높아진상태임에틸렌소비의해외의존도증가 (000 Ton) (%) Ethlyene Capacity(LHS) Self sufficiency ratio(rhs) Source: Mirae Asset Research 5

6 국가경제에서의위치 유가상승세로인해수출및 GDP 에서유화제품의비중은상승추세를나타내고있음 (%) Petrochemical production/total export(lhs) Petrochemical production/gdp(rhs) Source: Datastream, Mirae Asset Research 6

7 생산능력면에서국가서열의판도변화 중국과사우디아라비아는 2010년세계 3강위치를확보 US China Japan Saudi Arabia Korea Germany 2010(E) 2007 Canada Taiwan Netherland Brazil Source: Mirae Asset Research 7

8 도전 : 인당소비량 인당플라스틱수요측면에서한국의내수시장은성장한계국면임 India Indonesia SAM (kg/capita) China Thai Japan EU-15 US Taiwan Korea Source: Mirae Asset Research 8

9 아시아각국수급현황비교 수급갭 : 중국은증산에도불구하고여전히수요초과, 중동은공급초과상황이이어질전망 Difference 2012 World 2006 Taiwan Middle East China 공급초과 수요초과 Korea Japan Source: Mirae Asset Research, METI (Ton Mn) 9

10 수출시장의분석 : 대중국 중국으로의석유제품및석유화학제품수출은지속적흑자확대기조 (US$bn) 25 Export to China, Oil & Petrochemical Import from China, Oil & Petrochemical 20 Trade surplus Source: KITA, Mirae Asset Research 10

11 수출시장분석 : 대일본 한국은부품및정밀화학제품의대일무역에서큰폭의적자를감수 (US$bn) 14 Export to Japan, Electronic components & Fine chemicals Import from Japan, Electronic components & Fine chemicals 12 Trade deficit Source: KITA, Mirae Asset Research 11

12 한국주요업체 화학업체의시가총액비중은제품가격상승등에힘입어역사적으로가장높은수준으로확대되었음 (%) Market Cap KOSPI Chemical/Market Cap KOSPI Petrochemical proportion in GDP Source: MPustat, CEIC, Mirae Asset Research 12

13 Company Mkt Cap (Wtn) P/B (x) ROE(%) FY09E Revenue ( 08, Wbn) LG 화학 ,645 SK 에너지 ,737 S-Oil ,000 OCI ,120 호남석유 ,098 GS 제일모직 ,728 한화석화 ,037 Major products 석유화학 (PE, PP, 합성고무, PVC 등 ) 70% 정보전자소재 ( 편광필름, 이차전지 ) 30% 정유 68%, 석유개발 2% 석유화학 (PE, PP 등 ) 30% 정유 85%, 윤활유 6% 석유화학 9% 기초화학 ( 폴리실리콘, 소다회등 ) 40% 석유화학 ( 카본블랙등 ) 54%, 기타 6% 기초유분 14%, 합성수지 (PE, PP 등 ) 51% 화성제품 (EO, MMA, SM 등 ) 35% GS 칼텍스 ( 정유 83%, 화학 17%) GS 리테일 (CVS 51%, 슈퍼마켓 25% 등 ) 케미칼 (ABS, PS, 기능성수지등 ) 42% 전자재료 29%, 패션 29% 유화 (PE) 44% 화성 ( 가성소다, PVC, 염소등 ) 56% 13

14 밸류에이션 EV/CDU capacity EV/ethylene capacity Sinopec Nippon Oil SK Energy S-oil BASF FPCC Sabic LG Chemical Hanwha Chemical Dow GS Shanghai Petrochem Valero EV/CDU('000 US$/bpd) Honam Petrochem Korea Petrochem EV/Ethylene ('000 US$/MT) Source: Factset, Company data, Mirae Asset Research Source: Factset, Company data, Mirae Asset Research 14

15 밸류에이션 P/B vs ROE 측면에서여전히한국업체들은저평가 (P/B,x) Formosa Petrochemical Valero DOW SABIC SINOPEC BASF Nippon Oil CPCC SK Energy Hanwha Chemical S-Oil Honam petrochemical LG Chemical (ROE, %) Source: Mirae Asset Research 15

16 일본소재산업점유율 IT 용기초소재분야에있어서일본기업들은탁월한점유율을과시 TAC Semicon Encapsulant BaTiO3 PVA Carbon Fiber Silicon wafer Filter for desalination Separator for rechargeable battery LCD Glass 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Source: Mirae Asset Research, METI 16

17 진화하는한국업체들의사업모델업체주요내용 LG화학 LCD 패널계열사 (LG Display) 에기반한사업확장 LCD 편광필름점유율세계 1위 (29%) LCD 글라스분야신규진출 (1.2조원투자, ROI 28% 예상 ) 제일모직 삼성정밀화학 LCD 편광필름사업확대반도체재료부문매출확대전자재료부문영업이익증가추세 ( 04 : 474억 -> 10 : 1100억예상 ) 프린터용토너분야사업진출액정폴리머, 광학필름분야확대 OCI 태양전지용폴리실리콘사업진출 폴리실리콘사업통해연간 2500 억원이상의이익증가 17

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슬라이드 1

슬라이드 1 CJ 2007 CONTENTS 2006 CJ IR Presentation Overview 4 Non-performing Asset Company Profile Vision & Mission 4 4 - & 4-4 - & 4 - - - - ROE / EPS - - DreamWorks Animation Net Asset Value (NAV) Disclaimer IR