44-6대지.08김정희-5

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1 An Analysis of the Changes in the Cause-and-Effect Relationships between Socio-Economic Indicators and the Road Network of Seoul Using Structural Equation Model* Junghee Kim** Abstract The purpose of this study is to analyze cause-and-effect relationships between patterns of the road network and socio-economic factors such as population, industry, and land use of Seoul during the period of 1970~2000. In this study, Structural Equation Model (SEM) is used to estimate simultaneously the cause-and-effect relationships between many independent variables and dependent variables. For the observed variables, variables related to population, industry, land price, land use, and road variables were included; these variables were classified by exploratory factor analysis. The analysis using the SEM showed that the structure of the model changed around the 1980 s. In general, socio-economic factors such as population, industry, and land use affected construction of the road network of the city during the 1970 s and the 1980 s. Especially, it was analyzed that the industrial development had the greatest impact on formation of the road network. In the 1990 s, the effect that the road network exerts on socio-economic factors proved to be more appropriate than the other way round. At that time, the road-related factors had the greatest effect on the land price and industrial development, and that tendency has continued until now. : Structural Equation Model (SEM), exploratory factor analysis, cause-and-effect relationship, road network, socio-economic factor (Adjunct professor, Department of Geoinformatic Engineering, Namseoul University), bear0819@paran.com 797

2 1974 (Bourne, 1982, 28) (Park, 1952, 224) Baerwald(1978) (inner city) 798

3 (Bourne, 1991) Thompson( ) (full motorisation strategy)(weak center strategy) (strong center strategy) (low-cost strategy) (Structural Equation Model: SEM) 1970 Jöreskog(1973) LISREL , 3 799

4 SPSS AMOS 6 0 (Abramson et al., 2005, 566)

5 Giuliano( ) (POP) x 1 x 3 x x 7 x 2 x 4 x 6 65 x 8 1 x 9 1 (IND) x 10 2 x 11 2 x 12 3 x 13 3 (LAND) x 14 x 16 x 15 x 17 x 18 x 19 (ROAD) x 20 x 21 x

6 ESRI Erdas Imagine 9 0 ArcGIS 9 2 Landsat VBA Script

7 GIS KMO(Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin) Bartlett KMO Bartlett

8 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x KMO df136 sig.(p)0 000 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x KMO df105 sig.(p)0 000 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x KMO df136 sig.(p)0 000 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x KMO df136 sig.(p)

9 (Hu and Bentler, 1995) GFI AGFI 1 00 NFI CFI

10 RMR GFI AGFI p AIC t t t

11 df P Q GFI AGFI RMR NFI CFI AIC df P Q GFI AGFI RMR NFI CFI AIC df P Q GFI AGFI RMR NFI CFI AIC df P Q GFI AGFI RMR NFI CFI AIC df P Q(x2/df)GFI AGFI RMR NFI NFI CFI AIC P

12 GFI AGFI p AIC GFI AGFI

13 NFI CFI GFI 0 856AGFI AIC GFI AGFI NFI 0 955CFI GFI 0 839AGFI AIC

14 2006 Thompson(1977) (Hillier and Hanson, 1984, 52 82) Hillier(2002) 2 (local integration value) 3 810

15 (Goodness of Fit Index: GFI) (Adjusted GFI: AGFI) (Root Mean-Square Residual: RMSR) 2007 GFI AGFI 1 00 (Jöreskog and Sörbom, 1993)RMSR (cell) RMSR RMR (Normed Fit Index: NFI) (Comparative Fit Index: CFI) NFI 500 CFI (Parsimonious Goodness-of-Fit Index: PGFI) (Akaike Information Criteria: AIC) PGFI 1 00 (Cliff and Ord, 1981)AIC 2007New AMOS AMOS Abramson, R., Rahman, S., and Buckley, P., 2005, Tricks and traps in Structural Equation Modelling: a GEM Australia example using AMOS Graphics, Proceedings of ABBSA Conference. Baerwald, T. J., 1978, The emergence of a new downtown, Geographical Review, 68(3), Bourne, L. S.(ed.), 1982, Internal Structure of the City: Readings on Urban Form, Growth, and Policy, 2nd Edition, Oxford University Press, New York. Bourne, L. S., 1991, The roepke lecture in economic geography recycling urban systems and metropolitan, Economic Geography, 67(3), Cliff, A. D. and Ord, J. K., 1981, Spatial Processes: Models and Applications, Pion, London. Giuliano, G., 1995, Land Use Impacts of Transportation Investments: Highway and Transit. in Geography of Urban Transportation, 2nd Edition, Guilford Press, New York. Hillier, B., 2002, A theory of the city as object, Urban Design International, 7, Hillier, B. and Hanson, J., 1984, The Social Logic of Space, University of Cambridge Press, Cambridge. Hu, L. T. and Bentler, P. M., 1995, Evaluating model fit, in Hoyle, R. H.(ed.), Structural Equation 811

16 Modelling: Concepts, Issues and Applications, Thousand Oaks, Sage, CA, Jöreskog, K. G., 1973, A general method for estimating a linear structural equation system, in Goldberger, A. S. and Duncan, O. D.(eds.), Structural Equation Models in the Social Sciences, Seminar Press, New York. Jöreskog, K. G. and Söbom, D., 1993, LISREL 8: Structural Equation Modelling with the SIMPLIS Command Language, Chicago Software International, Chicago. Park, R. E., 1952, Human Communities, Free Press, New York. Thompson, M., 1977, Great Cities and Their Traffic, Peregrine, London bear0819@paran. com ) correspondence: Junghee Kim, Department of Geoinfomatic Engineering, Namseoul University, 21 Maeju-ri, Seonghwan-eup, Cheonan-city, Choongnam, , Korea( bear0819@paran.com, phone: ) 812

232 도시행정학보 제25집 제4호 I. 서 론 1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 사회가 다원화될수록 다양성과 복합성의 요소는 증가하게 된다. 도시의 발달은 사회의 다원 화와 밀접하게 관련되어 있기 때문에 현대화된 도시는 경제, 사회, 정치 등이 복합적으로 연 계되어 있어 특

232 도시행정학보 제25집 제4호 I. 서 론 1. 연구의 배경 및 목적 사회가 다원화될수록 다양성과 복합성의 요소는 증가하게 된다. 도시의 발달은 사회의 다원 화와 밀접하게 관련되어 있기 때문에 현대화된 도시는 경제, 사회, 정치 등이 복합적으로 연 계되어 있어 특 한국도시행정학회 도시행정학보 제25집 제4호 2012. 12 : pp.231~251 생활지향형 요소의 근린주거공간 분포특성 연구: 경기도 시 군을 중심으로* Spatial Distribution of Daily Life-Oriented Features in the Neighborhood: Focused on Municipalities of Gyeonggi Province