2018.01 Vol.259 C O N T E N T S 02 06 28 61 69 99 104 120 M O N T H L Y P U B L I C F I N A N C E F O R U M
2 2018.1
3
4 2018.1
1) 2) 6 2018.1
3) 4) 7
5) 6) 7) 8) 8 2018.1
9
10 2018.1
11 2003.08 2005.08 2007.03 2008.03 2009.03 2010.03 2011.03 2012.03 2013.03 2014.03 2015.03 2016.03-80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2003.08 2005.08 2007.03 2008.03 2009.03 2010.03 2011.03 2012.03 2013.03 2014.03 2015.03 2016.03 12 2018.1
74.23 25.77 100 75.98 24.02 100 58.33 48.86 55.56 58.36 46.26 54.91 66.29 33.71 100 66.02 33.98 100 41.67 51.14 44.44 41.64 53.74 45.09 70.7 29.3 100 71.49 28.51 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 47.48 52.52 100 41.85 58.15 100 50.96 49.04 100 50.79 49.21 100 57.3 42.7 100 56.75 43.25 100 68.88 31.12 100 68.55 31.45 100 75.69 24.31 100 77.1 22.9 100 77.84 22.16 100 78.49 21.51 100 81.84 18.16 100 78.25 21.75 100 73.8 26.2 100 70.62 29.38 100 70.7 29.3 100 71.49 28.51 100 13
64.39 65.06 63.94 62.24 63.65 61.18 67.33 65.18 69.74 68.86 70.60 66.95 67.03 70.38 62.51 69.73 74.76 63.41 73.24 79.25 65.00 73.49 78.48 67.48 79.25 82.07 73.68 80.94 84.71 73.51 83.94 87.83 74.05 85.52 88.33 78.50 14 2018.1
54.28 60.85 50.89 64.91 68.89 62.8 90.04 89.57 100 82.72 88.49 49.6 85.14 87.83 79.79 86.65 89.18 81.15 94.11 95.89 84.91 86.89 89.21 75.1 79.02 79.11 78.42 87.45 85.67 94.26 52.14 50.37 68.17 56.01 54.78 67.86 71.94 79.91 64.65 75.16 81.2 69.22 78.8 80.47 66.03 81.84 82.61 76.76 70.52 76.77 68.32 70.69 76.74 67.74 77.4 77.97 76.05 82.13 84.94 75.48 60.34 73 48.95 60.39 70.24 51.79 61.92 59.25 65.65 60.24 63.91 54.84 83.66 84.87 81.6 83.9 86.04 79.66 33.1 35.63 29.96 34.42 35.04 33.69 75.37 83.4 60.39 73.44 82.32 59.32 69.49 76.18 66.17 66.92 73.28 63.82 75.24 81.86 73.74 68.32 72.66 67.36 72.36 75.86 67.28 69.29 74.58 62.02 75.25 74.62 76.13 71.49 76.5 65.72 46.16 53 45.82 49.69 44.66 49.85 96.38 94.84 100 100 100 100 70.7 74.23 66.29 71.49 75.98 66.02 15
37.6 174.70 36.6 217.23 40.6 117.96 36.3 140.69 43.1 133.08 38.5 155.46 21.3 54.24 20.0 64.17 42.7 109.88 40.0 142.19 9) 10) 16 2018.1
17
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 400 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 18 2018.1
116.4 144.8 1.00 1.00 69.2 87.2 1.00 1.00 158.1 202.5 1.36 1.40 91.9 117.7 1.33 1.35 215.9 251.1 1.85 1.73 116.5 145.6 1.68 1.67 241.7 291.7 2.08 2.01 156.6 197.3 2.26 2.26 259.2 305.1 2.23 2.11 148.6 186.0 2.15 2.13 332.8 403.9 2.86 2.79 197.7 268.1 2.86 3.07 224.6 269.0 114.8 149.1 103.0 124.6 1.00 1.00 68.4 81.0 1.00 1.00 122.4 151.1 1.19 1.21 84.9 95.2 1.24 1.39 149.4 185.1 1.45 1.49 103.5 121.2 1.51 1.77 176.5 225.4 1.71 1.81 125.5 150.0 1.84 2.19 207.7 237.8 2.02 1.91 134.5 160.7 1.97 2.35 257.2 314.2 2.50 2.52 147.0 189.0 2.15 2.76 149.7 182.4 98.0 114.5 11.66 11.06 25.61 22.34 10.10 9.62 19.42 15.09 74.54 76.02 51.43 59.23 3.69 3.29 3.54 3.34 43.75 45.47 55.63 50.22 40.63 40.48 34.61 39.05 15.62 14.05 9.76 10.73 19
11) 20 2018.1
17.48 0.00 24.81 1.09 55.55 39.14 61.29 43.48 26.98 60.86 13.90 55.42 100.00 0.00 98.28 1.72 77.40 22.60 77.95 22.05 51.68 48.32 38.60 61.40 21
12) 32.93 21.27 45.80 31.65 29.29 39.07 23.69 48.82 27.78 22.13 57.27 20.60 15.82 63.82 20.36 20.15 70.00 9.85 10.60 64.60 24.80 22.72 68.50 3.78 10.12 71.97 17.91 19.38 78.52 2.10 5.72 74.88 19.40 26.35 72.88 0.77 22 2018.1
17.48 0.00 15.76 0.00 55.61 27.64 61.84 32.66 26.91 72.36 22.40 67.34 23
32.93 16.19 50.89 31.14 22.77 46.09 23.69 34.82 41.49 20.71 44.34 34.95 15.82 57.35 26.84 14.63 63.51 21.87 10.60 73.62 15.78 9.89 78.44 11.67 10.12 80.17 9.71 7.50 85.94 6.56 5.72 90.56 3.72 4.87 93.00 2.14 24 2018.1
13) 25
14) 15) 26 2018.1
27
1) 28 2018.1
29
30 2018.1
31
32 2018.1
33
34 2018.1
35
36 2018.1
37
2) 3) 4) 38 2018.1
5) 39
6) 7) 40 2018.1
8) 9) 41
42 2018.1
43
15,177 15,540 15,768 16,360 16,687 17,333 1,733 2,594 2,386 1,894 2,114 2,120 1,923 378 388 380 419 436 441 646 221 87 96 104 113 118 115 47 825 753 407 573 564 510 1 416 420 473 484 481 479 75 1,068 899 671 690 695 301 56 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 17.1 15.4 12.0 12.9 12.7 11.1 21.8 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.7 12.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 2.7 5.4 4.8 2.6 3.5 3.4 2.9 0.1 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 4.3 7.0 5.8 4.3 4.2 4.2 1.7 3.2 44 2018.1
17,333 566,729 100.0 100.0 1,733 183,573 10.0 32.4 1,923 4,220 11.1 0.7 378 1,526 19.7 36.2 646 671 3.7 0.1 221 273 34.2 40.7 115 1,882 0.7 0.3 47 1,022 41.0 54.3 510 778 2.9 0.1 1 1 0.3 0.2 479 279 2.8 0.0 75 53 15.6 19.1 301 609 1.7 0.1 56 176 18.7 28.9 45
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 2.0 2.1 4.6 9.8 20.9 2.4 3.0 10.6 17.1 24.0 3.6 4.3 21.1 25.3 8.3 6.7 10.1 15.8 0.4 6.2 24.5 93.1 1.9 2.9 7.8 27.4 41.7 2.2 3.3 9.2 18.0 21.9 30 20 10 60.6 43.0 29.1 16.6 34.6 18.4 45.3 0 46 2018.1
3,270 100.0 10,591 100.0 219 6.7 403 3.8 104 3.2 124 1.2 1,635 50.0 2,162 20.4 152 4.7 93 0.9 58 1.8 72 0.7 202 6.2 313 3.0 47
48 2018.1
49
10) 11) 50 2018.1
51
52 2018.1
53
54 2018.1
55
56 2018.1
57
58 2018.1
59
60 2018.1
61
62 2018.1
63
64 2018.1
65
A A A 66 2018.1
67
0 9,325 10 0 9,525 10 9,326 37,950 15 9,526 38,700 12 37,951 91,900 25 38,701 82,500 23 91,901 191,650 28 82,501 157,500 25 191,651 416,700 33 157,501 200,000 32.5 416,701 418,400 35 200,001 500,000 35 418,401 39.6 500,001 37 69
70 2018.1
71
72 2018.1
73
74 2018.1
75
76 2018.1
77
78 2018.1
79
80 2018.1
81
82 2018.1
83
84 2018.1
85
86 2018.1
87
88 2018.1
89
1.6 4 0.8 4 0.5 2 0.5 2 0.4 1.5 0.4 1.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.7 90 2018.1
91
92 2018.1
93
94 2018.1
95
96 2018.1
97
98 2018.1
99
100 2018.1
101
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will cut taxes by almost $1.5 trillion over the next decade largely benefiting corporations pass-through businesses such as partnerships and people who inherit large estates. The bill will also provide modest tax reductions for most wage and salary earners. This paper produces a comprehensive assessment of income redistribution to the working-age population covering OECD countries over the last two decades. Redistribution is quantified as the relative reduction in market income inequality achieved by personal income taxes employees social security contributions and cash transfers based on household-level micro data. A detailed decomposition analysis uncovers the respective roles of size tax progressivity and transfer targeting for overall redistribution the respective role of various categories of transfers for transfer redistribution; as well as redistribution for various income groups. é Can reforms that shift the balance among different taxes in the revenue mix lastingly influence the overall prosperity of an economy and the distribution of income across households? The present study takes this question to the data using the experience of 34 OECD countries over 1980-2014 to assess the effects of changes in the tax structure on the long-term level of average output per capita and the distribution of disposable income across households. We use longitudinal data on marriage and children from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to characterize women s exposure to the federal and state Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) during their first two decades of adulthood. We then use measures of this exposure to estimate the long-run effects of the EITC on women s earnings as mature adults. We find some evidence indicating that exposure to a more generous EITC when women were unmarried and had young (pre-school) children leads to higher earnings and hours and perhaps wages in the longer run. 102 2018.1
104 2018.1
105
106 2018.1
107
108 2018.1
109
110 2018.1
111
112 2018.1
113
114 2018.1
115
116 2018.1
117
15 20 10 15 5 10 5 118 2018.1
119
120 2018.1
700(1,400) 770(1,540) 450(900) 1,000(2,000) 1,100(2,200) 700(1,400) 300(300) 121
122 2018.1
123
124 2018.1
125
126 2018.1
127
128 2018.1
129
130 2018.1
131