jyyee@snu.ac.kr 1 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 2
1. 3 4
(): 5 6
16-7 10 1580-1670 7, 8
:, 9 2. 10
11 (1972 ) A world where industrial production has sunk to zero. Where population has suffered a catastrophic decline. Where the air, sea, and land are polluted beyond redemption. Where civilization is a distant memory..,.. 12
What does the future hold? : Population Industrial Production Natural Resources Agricultural Production Pollution 13 14
15,, 16
,, 17,, 18
Organized irresponsibility 19 / 20
3. 21 22
Risk-Taking High Grid High Group 23 24
?? 25 26
27 28
() 29,, 30
31 32
33 ( )?? 34
( ) -- 35 36
1. 2. 3. 4. 5., 6 37 38
39 : 1981-2004 40
2005 Stranger Parliament Government Foreign Worker Court President This World Korea Society Shopkeeper My School/org Alumni Relatives Family 41 4. 42
1993.3 43 1993.10, 292 221 335 44
1994.10 32 :,, 45 1995.4 101 (,,,,.). 120,000 46
1996.6.29 502, 939 - () 47 1. 1.. ( ), 48
2. 49 3. 50
4. 51, : + 52
? (Turner, 1997) 53 5. 54
55 56
Kobe Earthquake 1995 57 Kobe Earthquake 1995 58
Taiwan Earthquake on September 21, 1999 59 Gutenberg-Richter Law 60
,, 61 6. 62
1. - : - : 2. 3. 63 (small world) (complex system) 64
(robust-yet-fragile) (2003) KT 65 66
-. -. -. 67 -,. - linking rule. -,. 68
KT 69 70
71 72
73 3 가지 법칙 소수의 법칙 의미 소수의 사람들에 의한 변 화사회적 전염의 원동 력 사례 의 법칙 커넥터 고착성 요소 어떤 메시지가 가지는 영 향 기억 속에 고정되는 요인 싸가지 없음 방 귀뀐 놈이 성냄 상황의 힘 상황은 인간의 행동을 변 화시킨다 촛불시위 월드컵 응원 74
75 76
77 7 78
(normal accident) Complex interaction & tight coupling, 79 80
:? / / 81 (1995) (2001) 82
7. 83 84
: -? 85 Social network analysis (facts) (counterfactuals)? 86
87 88
:,,,,, 1079, 1080, 1080,,, 1080,,,,, :.,,,,,,,,,,, 89 90
91 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 1079 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 1080 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 1080 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 1080 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 1080 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 Mascon 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 1080 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 92
93 94
95 Wrong things happened simultaneously at the wrong time, and in the wrong place. 1. 2. (normal accident) 3. () 4. : 5. 96
? (complex interaction) (tight-coupling) Loose-coupling (, ) tight-coupling //. Loosening of tight coupling with simple interaction 97? 98
? 99 100
101