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4 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Proceeding of the 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds (October 2008, Changwon, Korea) Edited by Hee-Young Chae, Chang-Yong Choi & Hyun-Young Nam

5 Suggested Citation: Chae, H. Y., C. Y. Choi and H. Y. Nam (eds.) Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands. Proceeding of the 2nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds. Publication of the National Park Migratory Birds Center, Seoul, Korea. 165p. C 2008 National Park Migratory Birds Center The contents of this publication may be reproduced for educational, journalistic, and other non-commercial purposes. This proceeding is available online at Cover photograph Gi-Chang Bing / National Park Migratory Birds Center / /

6 개 회 사 우리나라 최대의 보호지역을 연구하는 저희 국립공원연구원과 람사르 습지가 위치한 신안군 이 공동으로 국제철새심포지움을 개최하게 된 것을 대단히 기쁘게 생각합니다. 이번 심포지움 은 제10차 람사르 협약 당사국 총회를 기념하는 의미도 함께 지니고 있어 더욱 뜻 깊게 생각 합니다. 이 자리를 위해 귀중한 시간을 내어 멀리 해외에서 참석해주신 석학 여러분과 이 자리를 빛 내 주신 모든 참석자 여러분께 마음 속 깊이 감사의 말씀을 전합니다. 본 심포지움의 주제는 기후변화에 대한 철새 모니터링과 도서습지의 보전 관리 입니다. 최 근 기후 변화와 관련된 각종 연구 보고서는 세계 곳곳에서 일어나는 재해가 지구 온난화 등 환경오염에 의한 것으로써 지속될 경우 인류에게 더욱 큰 재앙으로 다가올 것임을 경고하고 있습니다. 또한, 생물다양성협약 보호지역 실행 프로그램" 등 각종 국제협약에서는 협약당사 국에서 기후변화가 생물종 및 생태계에 미치는 영향 등에 대하여 적극적으로 대응할 것을 요 구하고 있습니다. 잘 아시는 바와 같이 조류는 이동이 용이하여 적합한 환경이 아니면 다른 곳으로 옮겨가는 특 수성 때문에 환경의 건강성을 측정하는 지표가 되는 생물로서, 국경을 넘어 자유롭게 이동하 기 때문에 기후변화가 생태계에 미치는 영향을 연구함에 있어 그 중요성이 더욱 커지고 있습 니다. 오늘 이 자리가 기후변화와 철새의 이동, 그리고 습지보전과 관련하여 국제적인 학문 교류 의 장이 됨은 물론, 건강한 지구 생태계와 인류를 위해 기여 할 수 있는 연구 과제를 모색하는 자리가 되기를 바랍니다. 아울러 국경을 넘어 이동하는 철새와 같이 참석자 여러분도 언어의 장벽을 넘어 마음을 나 누고 친분을 다져 학문적 동반자 관계와 기틀을 마련하는 소중한 자리가 되기를 충심으로 기 원합니다. 감사합니다. 2008년 10월 27일 국립공원연구원장 신 범 환 - i -

7 Opening Address It is my great pleasure that our National Park Research Institute, whose main objectives are to conduct researches on the nation's largest protection areas, to hold this International Migratory Birds Symposium together with Shinan County, where Ramsar wetlands are located in. This symposium is more memorable because it commemorates the 10th Meeting of the Conference of the Contracting Parties to the Convention on Wetlands. I would like to extend my warmest welcome to all the researchers and participants who came here across the world. The theme of this symposium is "Migratory birds monitoring and management of the island wetlands for the climate change". All the recent studies on the climate change suggest that global disasters are attributed to the environmental pollution including global warming and if it continues further damages to humans will be unpredictable. Also, all the international conventions including "The Convention on Biological Diversity's Programme of work on Protected Areas (CBD PoWPA)" require active responses of the contracting parties to the effect of the climate change on biological species and ecosystem. As it is well known, because avian species have tendencies and characteristics to migrate easily to look for better environment, they become indication of healthy environment and their importance is increasing for conducting researches on the effect of the climate change on the ecosystem. I wish today's symposium could give opportunities to find research subjects to contribute to the healthy global ecosystem and human beings as well as to exchange international studies in relation with climate change and migration, and wetlands preservation. In addition, I honestly hope this could be a precious moment for all of you to share your heart and profound knowledge without language or country barriers just like the migratory birds. Thank you. October 27, 2008 Bum-Whan Shin Director, National Park Research Institute - ii -

8 환 영 사 지금, 우리나라에서는 처음으로 이곳 창원에서 습지의 현명한 이용을 위한 람사르 총회가 내일부터 됩니다. 이렇게 뜻 깊은 장소에서, 작년에 이어 올해도 신안군과 공동으로, 세계적인 석학과 국내외 관계자 여러분을 모시고 국제철새심포지움을 갖게 된 것을 무한한 영광으로 생 각합니다. 그리고 참석하여 주신 모든 분들을 진심으로 환영합니다. 최근 지구환경 문제에 있어서 전 세계적으로 공통된 화두는 단연 기후변화라고 생각합니다. 급격하게 진행되고 있는 기후변화는 인간과 자연의 공존을 위협하고 있으며, 생태계의 건강을 심각하게 해치는 수준에 이르렀습니다. 특히 생태계의 최상위층에 위치한 철새의 경우, 그 피 해가 심각하리라 예상됩니다. 이에 공단에서는 2005년에 국내 최초로 국립공원 철새연구센터를 설립하여, 철새 개체군 모 니터링과 이동경로 연구, 서식환경개선을 위한 연구 등 철새 보호를 위한 다양한 연구를 진행 하고 있습니다만 아직 부족한 점이 많습니다. 그러나 기후변화에 의한 철새의 변화상을 모니터링하고 그에 대한 보호 대책을 수립하는데 있어 막중한 역할을 수행해야함을 부인할 수 없습니다. 그런 점에서, 오늘 이 자리가 앞으로 우리 공단의 역할과 나갈 방향을 정하는데 충실한 나침반 역할을 할 것으로 믿어 의심치 않습 니다. 아무쪼록 이번 심포지움이 다양한 주제발표와 그에 대한 진지한 토론으로 소기의 목적을 달 성할 수 있기를 바라는 바입니다. 마지막으로 본 심포지움에 참석하여 주신 국내외 전문가 여러분께 다시 한 번 깊은 감사를 드리며, 이 자리에 참석하신 모든 분들께서도 의미 있는 시간이 되기를 바랍니다. 감사합니다. 2008년 10월 27일 국립공원관리공단 이사장 엄 홍 우 - iii -

9 Welcoming Address For the first time in Korea, the Ramsar COP10 for the conservation and wise use of wetlands will be held in Changwon from tomorrow. It is my great honor to hold the international symposium on migratory birds in this meaningful place with researchers and participants from in and out of the country together with Shinan County following last year. I wish to extend a warm welcome to you who came to attend this meeting. The most common issue across the world these days on global environment will be climate change. The recent rapid climate change has been threatening the coexistence of human and nature, and even became to damage the ecological health. Particularly, in a standing of migratory birds in the highest level of ecosystem, the damage may be significant. The Korea National Park Service established the National Park Migratory Birds Center (NPMBC) in 2005 for the first time in Korea, and has been monitoring migratory birds groups and conducting diverse researches on their flyways and improvements of habitat environment even though we still need to strive further in many aspects. However, we can't deny our critical duties to monitor change of migratory birds according to the climate change and to establish protective measures for it. In this aspect, I strongly believe this symposium today will be a loyal compass to suggest the role and direction to Korea National Park Service. Most of all, I wish this symposium could achieve the expected results through diverse presentation of topics and discussions about them. Finally, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to you from all parts of the world for this symposium again and wish all the participants here could have meaningful time. Thank you. October 27, 2008 Hong-Woo Eum Chairman, Korea National Park Service - iv -

10 환 영 사 존경하는 국립공원관리공단 엄홍우 이사장님을 비롯한 내외 귀빈 여러분! 제10차 람사르 총회가 개최되고 있는 이곳 창원에서 국내외 저명하신 석학들을 모시고 작년 에 이어 올해도 국제철새심포지움을 개최하게 된데 대해 매우 반갑고 뜻 깊게 생각합니다. 우리군은 1004개의 섬으로 이루어져 수려한 해양관광자원을 자랑하는 섬의 천국으로 우리군 흑산 홍도는 동북아시아 등으로 장거리를 날아가는 철새의 중간 기착지로 철새의 이동에 있어 서 중요한 요충지입니다. 또한 국내 최초로 우리지역에 철새연구센터가 건립되어 활발한 연구 를 하고 있어 앞으로 우리지역이 철새의 메카로 자리매김할 수 있도록 최선을 다할 것입니다. 해조류 번식지로서 천연기념물로 지정 보호받고 있는 칠팔도, 구굴도를 비롯하여 다양한 생물 들이 서식하는 20여개의 특정도서를 보유하고 있으며, 흑산 장도 습지는 우리나라의 3번째 람 사르 습지로 지정되었으며, 국내 유일의 도서습지이기도 합니다. 정부에서는 대한민국의 미래 성장 동력으로 녹색성장 을 선정하여 추진하고 있습니다. 저는 우리 신안군이야 말로 진정한 녹색성장 을 할 수 있는 축복받은 곳이라 생각합니다. 앞으로도, 우리지역을 사람과 자연이 조화를 이룬 친환경적인 국제철새공원을 조성하여 철새 들의 쉼터는 물론 새들의 낙원으로서의 역할을 다할 수 있도록 노력 할 것입니다. 이 자리에 참석해주신 여러분께서도 우리나라 철새의 메카인 우리 군의 활동을 지켜봐 주시 고 아울러 애정 어린 성원도 보내주시기를 부탁드립니다. 아무쪼록 오늘 국제철새심포지움을 통해 미래지향적이고 발전된 의견들이 많이 제시되어 작 년보다 한층 더 업그레이드 된 토론회가 되기를 기대하면서 참석하신 모든 분들께 다시 한 번 감사드리며, 건강과 행운이 함께 하시기를 기원합니다. 감사합니다. 2008년 10월 27일 신안군수 박 우 량 - v -

11 Welcoming Address Dear the chairman of Korea National Park Service and the honored quests! It is my great honor and pleasure to held the International Symposium on Migratory Birds in Changwon where the 10th Ramsar Conference is held following the last year with the prestigious researchers in and out of the country. Shinan county is the heaven of islands composed of 1004 islands and proud of its beautiful marine attractions. Hongdo and Heuksando Islands located in our county are important areas for the birds migrating between East Asia and Australia as the stopover sites. Moreover, the Migratory Birds Center established for the first time in Korea and conducting active researches in our community will make every effort to make our community become a hub for migratory birds in the future. Shinan county also has about 20 designated islands of diverse life including Chilbaldo and Guguldo Islets that protected as a natural monument as breeding sites of seabirds, and Jangdo Island Wetland was designated as the 3rd Ramsar wetlands in Korea and the only island wetlands in the country. The Korean government has selected and is promoting Green growth as the future growth power. I believe our Shinan County is the promising place for actualization of Green growth. I will make every endeavor to organize the eco-friendly international migratory bird parks where the humans and nature exist together, and make it perform a role of a paradise for all kinds of birds as well as migratory birds. I wish all the guests in this symposium also could keep an eye on our county, the core area for migratory birds, and give us great encouragement to carry out the plan. Most of all, I expect more future-oriented and developed opinions in today's International Migratory Birds Symposium than last year and also would like to extend a warm welcome again and make best wishes to all the participants in this symposium. Thank you. October 27, 2008 Woo-Ryang Park County Mayor, Shinan-Gun - vi -

12 축 사 안녕하십니까? 낙동강유역환경청장 변주대입니다. 환경 올림픽 이라 불리는 람사르총회 개최 행사의 하나로 열리는 2008년 국제철새심포지움 개회식에서 축사를 할 수 있게 된 것을 무척 기쁘게 생각합니다. 또한, 이 자리를 마련해주신 엄홍우 국립공원관리공단 이사장님, 박우량 신안군수님 그리고 여러 관계자 여러분과 멀리 해 외에서 참석해주신 각국의 전문가들께도 감사의 말씀을 드립니다. 우리 환경부와 국립공원관리공단에서는 2005년부터 다도해해상국립공원지역인 홍도에 국내 최초로 철새연구센터를 설립하여, 한반도 서남해안을 오가는 철새들을 대상으로 조류모니터링, 철새이동경로 파악, 서식지 개선사업 등 다양한 연구 사업을 진행해 오고 있습니다. 특히, 최근의 기후변화는 철새와 인간의 공존을 심각하게 위협하고 있고, 조류인플루엔자의 발생으로 국가 간을 오가는 철새를 연구하고 그들의 서식지를 보전하는 일은 매우 중요한 국 가적 과제가 되고 있습니다. 이와 관련하여 우리 환경부에서는 아시아-태평양 철새보호 네트 워크를 비롯하여, 러시아, 호주, 중국 등과 양자간 철새보호협정을 맺는 등 국제적 철새보호프 로그램에도 참가하여 꾸준한 성과를 내고 있습니다. 또한, 오는 11월에는 동아시아-대양주 철 새 이동경로 파트너쉽 제3차 회의를 우리나라에서 개최할 예정이며, 앞으로도 국제적 협력을 더욱 강화해 나갈 계획입니다. 이러한 시점에서 기후변화에 대한 철새 모니터링과 도서습지의 보전관리 라는 주제 하에 신안군과 국립공원관리공단 주최로 열리는 국제심포지움은 그 의미가 더욱 크다 하겠습니다. 아무쪼록 이번 국제철새심포지움이 오늘만의 행사로써 끝나지 않고, 관련 학문의 발전과 철 새와 인간의 효율적인 공존방안을 더욱 높이는 계기가 되기를 바랍니다. 끝으로 오늘 이 행사를 준비하신 신안군, 국립공원관리공단 등 관계자 여러분의 노고에 감 사드리며, 이 자리에 참석해 주신 국내외 내빈 여러분들을 비롯한 모든 분들의 건강과 행운을 기원합니다. 감사합니다. 2008년 10월 27일 낙동강유역환경청장 변 주 대 - vii -

13 Congratulatory Address Good morning, ladies and gentlemen! I am Ju-Dae Byun, a director of the Nakdong River Basin Environmental Office. It is my pleasure to deliver my congratulatory address in this International Symposium on Migratory Birds held as a part the memorable Ramsar Conference. Additionally, I extend my great thanks to Hong-Woo Eum, the Chairman of the Korea National Park Service and who gave me this opportunity, Woo-Ryang Park, the County Mayor of Shinan-gun, and other participants and researchers who came to present here from each country across the world. Our Ministry of Environment and the Korea National Park Service have established the nation's first National Migratory Birds Center in Hongdo Island in Dadohae National Park areas and have been carrying out diverse researches on monitoring migratory birds, flyways identification, and habitat improvements projects since Especially, at this critical time when the recent climate change has become a significant threatening factor to the coexistence of migratory birds and humans, and the annually increasing danger of avian influenza is alarming the national economy, preservation of the habitat became a very important national task. Due to this background, our Ministry of Environment has been part of the international migratory birds protection programs including the Asia-Pacific migratory birds protection networks and the bilateral migratory birds protection conference between Russia, Australia, and China and has produced steady outcomes so far. The bilateral migratory birds protection conference, particularly, is planning to enlarge its contracting parties and enhance international cooperation. At this moment, this symposium held under the cooperation of Shinan County and the Korea National Park Service means a lot more. I hope all the honored guests here will try to make this International Migratory Birds Symposium provide an opportunity to upgrade the international prestige of Korea as well as to develop research studies instead of ending as a temporary event. Finally, I extend my great thanks to the people from Shinan County and the Korea National Park Service who didn't spare pains for this event, and also thank to all other guests who present in this ceremony including the dear guests inside and outside the country. October 27, 2008 Ju-Dae Byun Director, Nakdong River Basin Environmental Office - viii -

14 축 사 존경하는 내외 귀빈 여러분! 전 지구적인 규모로 발생하는 기후 변화에 따라 급격한 조류의 다양성 감소를 겪고 있는 이 때, 전 세계의 습지 보전을 위한 국제적인 노력에 동참하고자 전 세계의 전문가와 행정가들이 이곳 창원에서 모이고 있습니다. 이런 뜻 깊은 시기에 철새에 대한 깊은 애정으로 자리에 참석하신 분들을 모시고 두 번째 국제철새심포지움을 개최하게 된 것을 진심으로 축하드립니다. 아울러 람사르 총회라는 큰 행 사와 연계하여 이번 심포지움을 마련해 주신 국립공원연구원과 신안군 관계자 여러분께 깊은 감사를 드립니다. 한반도 서남단에 위치한 신안군은 동북아시아와 동남아시아를 연계하는 철새의 이동 경로에 위치함으로써, 우리나라의 철새 연구와 보전에 중요한 위치를 차지하고 있습니다. 또한 1,004 개의 아름다운 섬과 풍부한 자연 자원을 바탕으로 국내외의 많은 관광객이 찾는 명소인 동시 에, 국제적으로 중요한 습지로 지정된 장도 습지를 관리하는 곳이기도 합니다. 이런 신안군이 철새 연구를 위해 국내 최초로 설립된 상설 연구기관인 철새연구센터와 협력하여 이런 중요한 자리를 마련함으로써, 신안군의 자연 자원의 아름다움과 가치를 국내외에 널리 홍보하고 자연 과 지역 주민, 방문객이 공존할 수 있는 생태 관광의 기틀을 다지는 데 중요한 기회가 되리라 믿어 의심치 않습니다. 기후 변화와 철새, 도서 지역의 서식지 관리라는 주제로 개최되는 이번 심포지움은 환경과 습지, 서식지의 보전에 대한 관심이 높아지는 이 때, 바로 이곳 창원에서 개최됨으로써 참으로 시의 적절하다 하겠습니다. 저는 한국의 조류 학계를 대표하여 이런 뜻 깊은 자리를 마련해 주신 국립공원관리공단과 신안군 관계자 여러분에게 다시 한 번 감사의 말씀을 드립니다. 또한 오늘 이와 같이 철새에 대한 국내외의 뛰어난 연구 성과를 접할 수 있는 기회를 가질 수 있게 된 점에 대하여 기쁘게 생각하며, 이번 심포지움을 통해 참석하신 모든 분들이 철새들을 더 이해하고 이들을 위한 보 전 노력에 동참할 수 있는 있는 기회가 되기를 기원합니다. 감사합니다. 2008년 10월 27일 한국조류학회장 이 우 신 - ix -

15 Congratulatory Address Dear honored guests from all parts of the world! The diversity of avian species is rapidly decreasing because of the global climate change, and, at this moment, the international experts and administrators are gathered in here Changwon to participate in the international efforts for preservation of wetlands across the world. I would like to congratulate on opening the 2nd International Migratory Birds Symposium with the participants who came here with their deepest affection for migratory birds at this meaningful time and, additionally, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to the National Park Research Institute and the participants from Shinan County for preparing this symposium associated with the big event such as the Ramsar Conference. Located in the southwestern part of Korea in the middle of flyways of migratory birds connecting Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, Shinan County plays an important role for researches and conservation of migratory birds in Korea. Also, with the 1,004 beautiful islands and affluent natural resources, it is a tourist attraction in and out of the country and is in charge of managing Jangdo wetlands designated as internationally important wetlands at the same time. I strongly believe this symposium prepared cooperatively by Shinan County and the Migratory Birds Center, the nation's first standing research center for migratory birds, will give significant opportunities to promote beautiful natural resources and values in Shinan County around the world and establish a foundation for ecotourism where nature, community residents, and tourist can exist together. I would like to extend a warm welcome again to the Korea National Park Research Institute and the participants from Shinan County on behalf of the Ornithological Society of Korea for giving me this memorable opportunity. It is also my great pleasure to have a chance to see the outstanding researches on migratory birds around the world. I wish all the participants in this symposium could have opportunities to be part of an effort to understand and conserve migratory birds better. Thank you. October 27, 2008 Woo-Shin Lee President, Ornithological Society of Korea - x -

16 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands (27 October 2008, Changwon, Korea)

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18 Contents Keynote Speech 1. Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems in Korea and Needs of Long-Term Monitoring and Adaptation Activities Jong-Hwan Lim 3 SESSION I: Climate Changes and Migratory Birds 2. Climate Changes and Timing of Bird Migration Ommo Hüppop * and Kathrin Hüppop Phenological Response to Climate Change and Population Trends of Migratory Birds Diego Rubolini *, Anders P. Møller and Esa Lehikoinen 39 SESSION II: Monitoring Birds passing through Asian Region 4. Monitoring and Banding Activities in Japan Kiyoaki Ozaki Bird Banding Activities and Research on Migratory Birds in Sungei Buloh Wetland Reserve, Singapore James Gan Researches and Banding Activities in Taiwan: An Emphasis on the Long-term Population Variation of Eurasian Curlews Numenius arquata orientalis Chia-Yang Tsai 73 - xiii -

19 7. The Birds, Field Works and Conservation Activities of 1004 Islands, Shinan-gun County Kyung-Gyu Lee*, Gyeong-Nam Ko, Gil-Myung Jegal and Seong-Guk Joo 83 SESSION III: Wetlands and Birds in Stopover Islands 8. The Importance of Drinking Water to Staging Migrants Ido Tsurim Management of New Zealand Islands to Benefit Birds Hugh A. Robertson and Richard Suggate * Habitat Management and Enhancement for Migratory Birds in Hongdo and Heuksando Islands Jong-Gil Park *, Chang-Yong Choi, Gi-Chang Bing, Il-Jae Won, Gil-Pyo Hong, Seong-Jin Kim, Hyun-Young Nam and Hee-Young Chae Policies for Migratory Birds Conservation in Korea Nak-Bin Kim xiv -

20 Keynote Speech Climate Change in Korea

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22 Proceeding of the 2nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands 27 October 2008, Changwon, Korea Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems in Korea and Needs of Long-Term Monitoring and Adaptation Activities 기후변화에 따른 산림생태계 영향과 장기 모니터링 및 적응활동의 중요성 Jong-Hwan Lim 임 종 환 Department of Forest Environment, Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul , Korea 국립산림과학원 산림환경부 ( XXXXXXXXXXXX ) Abstract Recent global warming seems to be dramatic and has influenced forest ecosystems. Obvious changes in phenology of biota, species distribution range shift, and catastrophic climatic disasters due to recent global warming have been observed during the last century. Korean forests located mainly in the temperate forest zone have also experienced climatic change impacts including shifting of leafing and flowering phenology, changes in natural disasters and forest productivity. However, little research has been conducted on the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems in Korea which is essential to assess the impact and extent of adaptation. Also there is a shortage in basic long-term data of forest ecosystem processes. Careful data collection and ecological process modeling should be focused on characteristic Korean forest ecosystems which are largely complex terrain that might have hindered research activities. Global warming effects on Korean forest ecosystems are reviewed. Forest management options and challenges for future research, impact assessment, and preparation of mitigating measures in Korea are proposed, especially on the importance of long-term monitoring and restoration of Baekdudaegan Mountains System, De-militarized Zone and riparian forests for the conservation of biodiversity to adapt to the anticipated climate change

23 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea 요 약 최근의 지구온난화현상은 급진전하고 있으며 산림생태계에도 많은 영향을 미쳐 온 것으로 보인다. 지난 세기에 지구온난화와 함께 생물들의 생물계절, 종 분포범위 이동 및 급작스런 기상재해 등에 있 어 분명한 변화가 있었다. 우리나라 산림은 주로 온대림지역에 위치하고 있으면서 잎과 꽃의 시기의 변화, 자연재해 및 산림생산성의 변화 등을 포함하여 기후변화의 영향을 받아왔다. 그러나 우리나라 에서는 기후변화의 영향을 가늠하고 적응전략 수립에 필수적이라 할 수 있는 산림생태계의 영향에 관한 연구가 매우 미흡하였다. 아울러 산림생태계 프로세스에 대한 기초적이고 장기적인 자료도 부족 하다. 우리나라 산림생태계 연구에 있어 하나의 장애물로 작용하였던 복잡한 지형조건을 가진 산림생 태적 특성을 고려하여 주의 깊게 자료의 수집이나 생태계프로세스 모델개발이 이루어져야 하며 이를 통한 생태계서비스 변화예측과 적응 활동이 필요할 것이다. 우리나라에서 지구온난화에 따른 산림생 태계의 영향에 대한 모니터링과 연구현황을 고찰하고, 생물다양성 보전을 위한 주요 기후변화 적응사 업으로 백두대간과 비무장지대 생태계의 특성에 대하여 논의하고 이들에 대한 모니터링과 복원의 중 요성을 논의하였다. Introduction According to the IPCC 4 th assessment report, the earth s climate has warmed by 0.74 over the past 100 years with about a 10-25cm rise of sea level, compared with that of the pre-industrial era (IPCC, 2007). Besides many recent worldwide natural disasters due to catastrophic weather events, Korea has also experienced frequent disasters; i.e., a big forest fire in the east-coastal region in 2000, severe drought in spring of 2001, heavy rainfall accompanying landslides by typhoon Rusa in 2002, a warm winter in 1988, etc. By mid-year 2006, two extreme weather events were recorded; the heaviest snowfall in Busan on March, and the hottest air temperature in April at 40 cities since the beginning of Korean meteorological measurements in The annual mean temperature of Korea has risen about 1.5 since 1912, and the Korean climate has warmed about 0.9 when we assume that the urbanization effect is about 30% and offset it. In particular, low temperatures in winter increased more than summer highs, and the intensity of precipitation (the amount per event) increased while precipitation frequency decreased (Kwon, 2003). IPCC (2007) predicted that global averaged surface temperature will rise by These projected changes are considered to be very rapid and to be non-uniform in time and space. The IPCC models projected spatially different patterns of mean temperature increase and annual precipitation change by regions, a decrease in diurnal temperature range in many areas (with nighttime lows increasing more than daytime highs), a general decrease of daily variability of air - 4 -

24 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands temperature in winter, and increased daily variability in summer for Northern Hemisphere land areas. Moreover, the amplitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events is very likely to increase, leading to more frequent floods, landslides with loss of life, property damage, loss of infrastructure and settlements, human health impacts, etc. (IPCC, 2001). The impacts of global warming on forests can, in turn, influence the global climate system by feedback mechanisms involving changes in albedo, evapotranspiration, concentration of greenhouse gases, etc. Furthermore, forests directly affect climate on local, regional and continental scales by influencing ground temperature, surface roughness, cloud formation and precipitation. Thus adaptation activities in forest sector are much more important due to the linkage with mitigation of warming and reduction of CO 2 emission at the same time. Long-Term Monitoring and Integrative Forest Ecosystem Study Korea Forest Research Institute has established three long-term ecological research sites; Gwangneung Experiment Forest (GEF) in the central subzone of the cool temperate forest zone, Mt. Gyebangsan Forest (GBF) in the northern subzone of the cool temperate forest zone, Mt. Geumsan Forest (GSF) in the warm temperate forest zone and Mt. Hallasan in Jeju island. At the sites, we aimed to monitor long-term changes of the forest ecosystem processes including energy flux, water and nutrient cycling, forest stand structure and biological diversity including plants, vertebrate (birds, mammals), invertebrate (in soil, on forest floor, on air, in canopy, in stream water) and microbes (plant disease, mushrooms, lichens). We are developing forest dynamics models to quantify carbon/nutrient budgets and fluxes among forest ecosystem compartments and to integrate ecological data using GIS-assisted system. Interdisciplinary forest ecosystem research by the union of long-term ecological research program of KFRI and flux research programs at the same site of Gwangneung forest resumed in This included the construction of one more flux tower (the second tower, ST) to better capture the heterogeneities of the site of complex terrain and to supplement the measurement at the main tower (MT). Researchers with widely varying expertise joined the projects including GIS/RS, soil sciences, forest hydrology, forest ecology and dynamics, stable isotopes, and ecosystem modeling. Global Warming Effects on Forest Ecosystems Many studies showed ecological responses to changes of regional climate, particularly increases in temperature. Such observed changes include: - 5 -

25 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea 1) Changes in timing of biological events (phenology) 2) Changes in species distribution ranges 3) Increased frequency and intensity of outbreaks of pests and diseases 4) Changes in species composition of communities 5) Changes in the ecosystem services including clean water, resources provision and tourism. As a result of many long-term phenological data sets, especially in Europe and North America, it is evident that phenological trends respond to climate change. Common changes in the timing of spring activities include plant leaf unfolding, flowering, breeding or arrival of birds, spawning of amphibians, appearance of butterflies, etc. In Mt. Gyebangsan, the degree of leafing for 3 tree species including Quercus mongolica was observed and compared with the spring temperature (Lim and Shin, 2004). The relationship of leafing and spring temperature was very close. Leafing time of several tree species became 5-7 days earlier by 1 increase in United Kingdom (Sparks and Carey, 1995). Root et al (2003) using more than 10 years of data, analyzed observations on species and global warming, and estimated means of phenological shifts separately for invertebrates, amphibians and birds, and for trees and other plants. Means, except for trees, clustered around an earlier shift of 5 days per decade, but trees were 3.0±0.1 days per decade. Mean shifts at latitudes from 50 to 72 were 5.5±0.1 days/decade earlier while at latitudes from 32 to 49.9 were 4.2±0.2 days/decade. Menzel and Fabian (1999) reported that the growing season expanded 3.6 days/decade during the past 50 years. These results indicate that many species have some capacity to respond rapidly to climate changes by altering the timing of life-history events. However, timing of life-history events depends on factors besides temperature, and a shift in phenology may disrupt important correlations with other ecological factors. Plant-animal interactions such as pollination and seed dispersal depend on synchrony between species. For many systems, species will respond to climate change at similar rates and maintain synchrony (Buse and Good, 1996), whereas for other species the loss of synchrony may have detrimental effects. In the Netherlands, warmer springs have resulted in a mismatch between the time of peak availability of insects and the peak food demands of nestling Great tits (Visser et al. 1998). Climate is an important determinant of geographic range for many species. Recent northward movements of species range boundaries consistent with warming have been observed in birds (Thomas and Lennon, 1999), mammals (Payette, 1987), and butterflies (Dennis, 1993, Parmesan et al., 1999). Parmesan et al. (1999) examined changes in the northern range boundaries of 52 species of European butterflies over the past years, and found that 34 species shifted northward, 1 species southward and 17 species unchanged. Air temperature in mountain regions changes with elevation at about 1 per 160 m and changes with latitude at about 1 per 150 km (IPCC, 1996). Grabherr et al. (1994) surveyed montane plants - 6 -

26 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands on 26 mountain communities in the Swiss Alps and compared species distributions to historical records. The rate of upward shift was estimated to be 1-4 m per decade. These movements were slower than the 8-9 m per decade expected based solely on the change in mean temperature over the last 90 years. In Korea, using the scenario of climatic warming 2 by 2100, the shifts of the potential ranges of the several native trees including Camellia japonica which is an evergreen broadleaved tree, Quercus mongolica and Abies nephrolepis were predicted based on the thermal ranges of the species (Lim and Shin, 2005). The predicted changes of distribution ranges were dramatically toward northward in latitude, and toward the top of the mountains. Distribution ranges of the trees in the warm temperate forest zone, such as Camellia japonica were predicted to expand about 2 times, and extend 100m higher in elevation (Lim and Shin, 2005). Trees of the cool-temperate forest and sub-alpine forest zones were predicted to become confined to half of the current potential ranges. Since forests in Korea are located mainly on the mountainous area, altitudinal shifts of the distribution ranges are also important factor. Thus the vegetation in the sub-alpine zone will be mostly vulnerable. Priority should be given to the conservation of the high mountains vegetation and species of the habitat ranges in anticipation of significant global warming. Recent Korean fir forest decline in Mt. Halla, has been accelerated by water stress due to the imbalance between water requirement and supply from roots in winter and spring which was primarily caused by climatic warming in Jeju Island (Lim et al 2006, Woo et al 2008). Kong (2005) suggested some plant species vulnerable to global warming using a climatic indicator of high summer temperature in Korea. The author mentioned the further research on bioclimatic ranges and adaptation abilities of plant species would be required to assess the possible impacts of climatic warming. Figure 1. Projected changes of potential forest vegetation zones in Korea by increases of mean air temperature (left: present climate, center: 2 increase, right: 4 Increase)

27 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea Other montane habitats may also be showing the effects of climatic change. Dieback of montane trees (Hamburg and Cogbill, 1988; Fisher, 1997) is consistent with the effects of warmer climate. We feel that the alpine and sub-alpine forests are vulnerable to global warming and that communities should be monitored and conserved. Figure 2 shows a recent increase of forest area disturbed by forest fire and landslide in Korea. It is possible that these extreme climate-related events were driven by erratic conditions associated with early stages of ongoing global warming. The recent tendency of frequent climate-related disturbances is worldwide (IPCC, 2001). I plotted landslide area in Korea against annual precipitation, and we can find the high limitation line (Figure 3). However, the plotted landslide area in 2002 was out of the trend line due to destruction by heavy rainfall that accompanied typhoon Rusa. The typhoon impacted the same area previously burned by a big forest fire in 2000, and showed an amplified effect. Figure 2. Changes of forest area disturbed by landslide and forest fire in Korea. Y axis is anomaly standardized as (X i X mean )/(X max -X min ). Forest fire areas were from Korea Forest Service (2008) and landslide area from internal data of Korea Forest Service. Figure 3. Relationship between annual precipitation and landslide area in Korea. In 2002, typhoon Rusa with heavy rainfall destroyed the previously damaged area by a big forest fire in 2000 and multiple heavy rainfalls in

28 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands The changes in disturbances would be important in sense of adapting to anticipated climate change and maintaining the forest as a carbon reservoir. Carbon stored in forest ecosystems could be lost as forests transit from one type to another under a changing climatic condition. Moreover, the raised air temperature accelerates soil respiration rate and may contribute to enhancing the greenhouse effect. Using a process-based simulation model, changes of species composition and biomass were simulated for central cool-temperate forest zone in Korea. It was predicted that biomass production would be increased and P inus koraiensis and Quercus mongolica would be replaced with Q. serrata, Carpinus laxiflora and C. tchonoskii in a 1 warmer climate. However, biomass production would be decreased in a 2 warmer climate (J.H.Lim, unpublished data). Adapting to Climate Change by Restoration of Forest Ecosystems for Biodiversity Conservation We need to prepare proactive adaptation strategies to minimize the adverse effects of climate change for the conservation of biodiversity, maintaining ecosystem services and forest health. Among them, I would like to emphasize on the forest restoration activities, especially major two forest ecosystem networks, Baekdudaegan Mountains System and DMZ area which have synergistic effects of adaptation and mitigation to climate change as well as providing various ecosystem services. Korean Peninsula is located on the northeastern side of the Asian continent, stretching down from the northern continent to the south. The main mountain ridge, so-called the Baekdudaegan Mountains, also stretches from north to south with mountain ridges branched to it. As the land stretches from north to south along with its complex topographical features and adjoins the ocean, Korea shows wide variations in temperature and precipitation. Even though the population density is very high, about 64 percent of the national territory is covered with forests due to the characteristic complex topography. Up until the mid-20th century, undergoing the Japanese colonial period and the Korean War, it s economy was poor condition while the population had been soared leading to a highly populated country, 485 people per km2 as of Deforestations and heavy extractions of forest resources were followed. Consequently, the average forest stock volume reached only 10 to 30m3/ha leading to the status of open forest and the severe soil erosion had been occurred. Since then, top predators such as tigers (P anthera tigris altaica Temminck), Amur leopards (P anthera pardus orientalis Schlegel), and wolves (Canis lupus coreanus Abe) have been extinct. Since the 1970s, the growing stock volume has reached as high as 79m3/ha due to successful forest restoration and rehabilitation along with poverty reduction and fuel substitution, fire woods to - 9 -

29 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea fossil fuels. Throughout the course, the dominant tree species in forests has been changed. As a pioneer species, single pine species P inus densiflora S. et Z. covered over 60 percent of forest area in the mid-20th century. Afterwards, the coverage shrunk down to 25 percent in the late 20th century yielding its place to oaks according to natural succession and outbreaks of pests and diseases including pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Butler), pine gall-midge (Thecodiplosis japonensis Uchida et Inouye), black pine bast scale (Matsucoccus thunbergianae Miller et Park). With rehabilitation and restoration, forest biodiversity is being recovered. According to the annual reports on Wildlife Population Census in Korea (National Institute of Environmental Research, 2005), the population of the Japanese pygmy woodpecker (Dendrocopos kizuki Temminck), pale thrush (Turdus pallidus Gmelin), brown-eared bulbul (Hypsipetes amaurotis Temminck), great tit (P arus major L.) and other indicator species has been increased. In a comprehensive manner, a favorable environment for biodiversity recovery has been created according to forest restoration, enlarged Forest Protected Areas, intensified management, spread of ecological management as well as public awareness in natural conservation and the economic growth. However, at the same time, through urbanization and industrialization, some forests have been converted into agricultural land, residential areas, industrial complexes and roads, significantly fragmentizing forests. Agricultural ecosystems face the loss of biodiversity due to broken relationship between human and nature and utilization of pesticides and fertilizers on farm lands. In addition, current forest fires, the torrential rain showers, forest disasters, outbreaks of pests and diseases, and occurrence of invasive species are becoming major threats to the biodiversity and forest health along with upcoming climatic change. As the Act on Protection of the Baekdudaegan Mountain System was enacted in December 2003, and designated the core zones of 1,699km2 and buffer zones of 935km2, totaling 2,634km2 in September The BDMS Protected Area is designed to connect whole Baekdudaegan Mountains which is fragmented as islands of mountain-type national parks. For the conservation of biodiversity actively, preventing degradation and ecological restoration on damaged forests are underway along with environmentally friend agricultural practices. The De-militarized Zone (DMZ) between South and North Korea is a four kilometer width strip. The region 10 to 20 kilometers south to the DMZ is designated as Civilian Control Zone (CCZ). Since 1953 these areas have been kept intact without people s interference. Therefore, lowland wetlands and rivers that would have been developed into cultivating or housing lands in other regions remain in their natural states in this area. The DMZ and CCZ is serving as habitats and refuges for wildlife animals and plants including rare birds, insects. Recently, active discussions and researches are conducted to protect the DMZ even after reunification. Korea Forest Service is preparing the five-year forest biodiversity basic plan for effective conservation of forest biodiversity and sustainable management. Major activities included here are as

30 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands follows: - Implementation of the ecosystem approach: spread its concepts and practice guidelines - Systematic survey and monitoring on forest biodiversity - Effective designation, management and network of Forest Protected Areas - Intensifying conservation of rare and endangered plant species and ex-situ conservation of useful genetic resources - Effective control of threats to the forest biodiversity including habitat destructions, natural hazards, climate change and so on - Ecological restoration of degraded forest ecosystems References Buse, A. and J.E.G. Good Synchronization of larval emergence in winter moth (Operophtera brumata L.) and budburst in pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) under simulated climatic change. Ecological Entomology 21: Dennis, R.L Butterflies and climate change. Manchester University Press. Manchester and New York. 302pp. Fisher, M Decline in the juniper woodlands of Raydah Reserve in southwestern Saudi Arabia: a response to climatic change? Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters 6: Grabherr, G., M. Gottfried and H. Pauli Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369: 448 Hamburg, S.P. and C.V. Cogbill Historical decline of red spruce populations and climatic warming. Nature 331: Holdrigde, L.R Determination of world plant formations from single climatic data. Science 105: IPCC Climate Change 1995; Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Cambridge Univ. Press. London. 878pp. IPCC Technical Summary - Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. 73pp. IPCC Climate Change and Biodiversity. 77pp. IPCC Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. 184pp. Kong, W.S Selection of vulnerable indicator plants by global warming. Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society, 41: (in Korean with English abstract) Korea Forest Service Major Statistics of Forestry. Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. (in Korean) Korea Forest Research Institute Global Warming, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change; The Role of Forests for Implementation of UNFCCC. KFRI, Seoul. 111pp. (in Korean) Kwon, W.T Changes of Korean climate of last 100 years and future prospects. Korea

31 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea Meteorological Administration News Letters 2: 1-8. (in Korean) Lim, J.-H. and J.H. Shin Global warming effect on forest ecosystems. Nature Conservation 111:19-25 (in Korean) Lim, J.-H. and J.H. Shin Relationship between leafing time and air temperature in two oak forests of Korea. Proceedings of the 1st EAFES International Congress, Mokpo. pp Lim, J.-H. and J.H. Shin Forest vegetation shifts and plant phenological changes according to global warming. Nature Conservation 130: 8-17 (in Korean) Lim J.-H. S.-Y. Woo, M.J. Kwon, J.-H. Chun Photosynthetic capacity and water use efficiency under different temperature regime on healthy and declining Korean fir in Mt. Halla. J. Korean For. Soc. 95(6): (in Korean with English abstract) Menzel, A. and P. Fabian Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397: 659. National Institute of Environment Research Wildlife Survey. NIER No pp (in Korean with English abstract)) Oh, J.S., J.H. Shin and J.-H. Lim Long-term ecological research programme in Forestry Research Institute, Korea. Korean Journal of Ecology 23: Parmesan, C., N. Ryrholm, C. Stefanescu, J.K. Hill, C.D. Thomas, H. Descimon, B. Huntley, L. Kaila, J. Kullberg, T. Tammaru, J. Tennent, J.A. Thomas, M. Warren Poleward shift of butterfly species ranges associated with regional warming. Nature 399: Payette, S Recent porcupine expansion at tree line: a dendro-ecological analysis. Canadian Journal of Zoology 65: Root, T.L., J.T. Price, K.R. Hall, S.H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig and J.A. Pounds Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: Sparks, T.H. and P.D. Carey The responses of species to climate over two centuries: an analysis of the Marsham phenological record Journal of Ecology 83: Suh, S.-U., Y.-M. Chum, N. Chae, J. Kim, J.-H. Lim, M. Yokozawa, M.-S. Lee and J.-S. Lee A chamber system with automatic open and closing for continuously measuring soil respiration based on an open-flow dynamic method. Ecological Research 21: Thomas, C.D. and J.J. Lennon Birds extend their ranges northwards. Nature 399: 213. UNEP/GRID-Arendal Vital Climate Change Graphics Update. net/_documents/clmate_change_update.v15.pdf. 24pp. (accessed August 2006). Visser, M.E., A.J. van Noordwijk, J.M. Tinbergen and C.M. Lessells Warmer springs lead to mistimed reproduction in great tits (P arus major). Proceedings of the Royal Society, London, 265: Woo, SY, J-H Lim and DK Lee Effects of temperature on photosynthetic rates in Korean fir (Abies koreana) between healthy and dieback population. J. Int. Plant Biol. 50:

32 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Dr. Jong-Hwan Lim ( 林 鍾 煥 ) 직책 및 연락처 P osition and Contact I nformation: 국립산림과학원 산림환경부, 산림생태연구실장 Senior Researcher, Department of Forest Environment, Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul, Korea Tel: XXXXXXXX Fax: XXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX 주요 경력 E xperience Summary: 1992년부터 국립산림과학원에서 근무하였으며, 국내 최초의 장기 산림생태계 모니터링 사업 과 비무장지대 생태계 조사, 백두대간 생태계 조사 등을 추진하였고, 기후변화에 따른 산림생 태계 영향평가와 적응 연구를 수행하고 있으며, 생물다양성협약의 산림분야 전문가로서도 활동 하고 있다. I have worked for Korea Forest Research Institute since 1988, and conducted "Long-Term Ecological Study on Forest Ecosystem" project, and ecosystem conservation study projects including DMZ Ecosystem and Baekdudaegan Mountains Ecosystem. I am currently responsible for conducting researches on impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem and developing adaptation measures and conservation of forest biodiversity, and also play a role as an expert of forest and mountain biodiversity for Convention on Biological Diversity. 학력 E ducation: - Ph.D., Department of Forest Resources, Seoul National University, Korea 관심 분야 Research I nterests: - 산림동태 Forest dynamics - 기후변화 영향 및 적응 Climate change impacts assessment and adaptation - 산림생물다양성 보전관리 Forest management for biodiversity conservation

33 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea 주요 저서 및 논문 Selected P ublications: Chun, JH, J-H Lim and DK Lee (2007) Biomass estimation of Gwangneung catchment area with Landsat ETM+ Image. J. Korean For. Soc. 96: Hong, J., J. Kim, D. Lee and J.-H. Lim (2008) Estimation of the storage and advection effects on H 2 O and CO 2 exchanges in a hilly KoFlux forest catchment. Water Resource Research 44, w01426, doi: /2007wr Kang, HS, J-H Lim, JH Chun, IK Lee, YK Kim and JH Lee (2007) Invasion of Korean pine seedlings originated from neighbour plantations into the natural mature deciduous broad-leaved forest in Gwangneung, Korea. J. Korean For. Soc. 96(1): Kang, SK, SW Running, J-H Lim, N Zhao and C Park (2003) A regional phenology model for detecting onset of greenness in temperate mixed forests, Korea: an application of MODIS leaf area index. Remote Sensing of Environment 86: Kim, J, JH Hong, D Lee, S Kang, S Kim, S Moon, J-H Lim, Y Son, J Lee, S Kim, K Kim, N Woo, B Lee, BL Lee, and S Kim (2006) HydroKorea and CarboKorea: cross-scale studies of ecohydrology and biogeochemistry in a forest catchment in complex landscapes of Korea. Ecological Research 21: Kim, R-H, Y Son, J-H Lim, IK Lee, KW Seo, JW Koo, NJ Noh, S-R Ryu, SK Hong and BS Ihm (2006) Coarse woody debris mass and nutrients in forest ecosystems of Korea. Ecological Research 21: Kwon, T-S, J-H Lim, S-J Shin, Y-D Kwon, S-G Son, G-Y Lee, Y-T Kim, J-W Park, S-B Yoo, C-G Lee, C-H Shin, S-C Shin, Y-J Chung, Y-S Park (2006) Distribution patterns of Monochamus alternatus and M. saltuarius (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Korea. J. Kor. For. Soc. 95: Lim J-H and JH Shin (2005) Forest vegetation shift and plant phenological changes according to global change. Nature Conservation 130: 8-17 Lim J-H, JH Shin, DK Lee and SJ Suh (2006) Climate change impacts on forest ecosystems: research status and challenges in Korea. Kor. J. Agri. and For. Meteorol. 8: Woo, SY, J-H Lim and DK Lee (2008) Effects of temperature on photosynthetic rates in Korean fir (Abies koreana) between healthy and dieback population. J. Int. Plant Biol. 50:

34 SESSION I Climate Changes and Migratory Birds

35

36 Proceeding of the 2nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands 27 October 2008, Changwon, Korea Climate changes and timing of bird migration 기후변화와 철새 이동시기의 변화 Ommo Hüppop * and Kathrin Hüppop Institute of Avian Research "Vogelwarte Helgoland", Island Station P.O.Box 1220, D Helgoland, Germany ( * XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX) The recent global climate change, mainly an increase of average temperatures but also changes of precipitation conditions in many regions, progresses in an unexpected speed and extent. Accordingly, numerous environmental factors also shift, which influence the complex annual cycle of birds. The observed changes differ in different areas in quality and quantity often very clearly. From a European perspective we will focus here on these questions: Which consequences does climate change have for migratory birds? Are they able to react to it at all? For which species are climatic changes favourable, for which rather of disadvantage? And what can be expected for the future? Bird migration evolved particularly in connection with the seasonally changing weather conditions and the associated availability of food. Most bird species, which breed in temperate, boreal or arctic latitudes of Europe and western Asia, fly to better suited areas for wintering. Many of these species, the so called short and medium distance migrants (SMM), winter in central, south or eastern Europe. Long distance migrants (LM) move even much further to western, eastern or southern Africa. On their way they have to cross or circumvent two large ecological barriers, the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara. Between their breeding and wintering areas migratory birds must thus cover large distances and they are confronted with numerous and often very contrasting climatic conditions and habitats. Over thousands of years the annual periodicity of migratory birds evolved in response to these different environmental conditions. Owing to a certain flexibility it adapts to the normal fluctuations of the annual and regional climatic conditions. In the course of the

37 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea recent climate change these adjustments achieved amazing extents, migration times being just one example. Advancement of spring migration Winter and spring temperatures have increased worldwide in the last decades, but namely in western and northern Europe and Asia. As a consequence, many different phenomena within the annual periodicity of a large spectrum of organisms have advanced drastically. For many migratory birds earlier passage times, advancements of the arrival in the breeding area and of the beginning of breeding, changes of other breeding parameters or also changes of the breeding area were registered. These changes can be observed worldwide and concern both migration types, SMM and LM, despite different migratory distances, and affect both sexes despite sex-specific migration times in many species. On the small island of Helgoland in the southern North Sea, constant effort trappings revealed that within almost 50 years (1960 to 2007) for example Blackbird Turdus merula and Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata have advanced their spring migration by 11 days (Fig. 1), Willow Warbler P hylloscopus trochilus by almost 13 days, Lesser Whitethroat Sylvia curruca and Chiffchaff P hylloscopus collybita by nearly 14 days, Woodcock Scolopax rusticola by nearly 15 days and Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla by even 17 days. As average value of 24 species an earliness of 8.6 days could be observed in 46 years on the island of Helgoland according to 1.9 days per decade. Comparable phenological changes were not only found in birds and not only on Helgoland: On the basis of a large number of investigations on different animal and plant species, European and American scientists could compute a consistent global advancement of various phenological events in spring by two to five days per ten years in the last decades. The advancement of many spring time phenomena in birds is clearly connected with the youngest unusually intensive climate change. On the basis of a very large number of investigations European scientists could prove that Eurasian species of bird arrive on average 2.5 to 3.3 days earlier per 1 C warming. The spring migration times, however, are determined less by the local weather in the breeding area but rather by more large scale weather conditions on the way there. Both in Europe and in North America migratory birds arrive in their increasingly warmer breeding areas not earlier, if the temperatures did not increase (or even decreased) along the migration route. This phenomenon also can be observed throughout one specific migration time: In south Finland the first Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca advanced their arrival times at the breeding grounds, due to increased temperatures in the winter and at the beginning of their migration time along the route

38 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Fig. 1. Advancement of the mean spring migration times in the Spotted Flycatcher (long distance migrant, left) and the Blackbird (short/medium distance migrant, right) based on constant effort trappings on the island of Helgoland, North Sea, from 1960 to 2007 (completed after Hüppop & Hüppop 2005). from southwest to northeast. The last individuals, however, do not arrive earlier, since the later spring temperatures did not change. In Europe above all the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, see box) determines the large scale weather conditions along the migration route. It affects considerably temperature, precipitation, wind force and wind direction at the same time over wide ranges of west, central and northern Europe particularly during the winter months, factors thus, which prepare the environment for the migrants. A more positive winter NAO-index (December until March) with more westerly winds and therefore higher temperatures and precipitation during the winter months means earlier developed vegetation, making food available earlier (see NAO box). Actually, the winter NAO index, as a measure for the winter weather, evolved into more and more positive values over the last decades (Fig. 2). Fig. 2. Trend of the winter NAO-index towards more and more positive values from 1960 to 2007 (data from uk/cru/data/nao.htm)

39 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea NAO-Box: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a multi-annual fluctuation in the air pressure system between the Iceland low and the Azores high. It crucially affects the weather in West, North and Central Europe. The NAO-index is a measure for the monthly mean difference between the air pressure at the Azores and at Iceland and characterizes the large scale meteorological situation. Typically the strongest fluctuations are found in winter and spring, when the atmosphere is most dynamic. An averaged value over the months December to March, the so called winter NAO index, informs about the general meteorological situation of the winter and the early spring. It is thus well suited for the investigation of spacious connections of ecological phenomena with weather and climate. A negative winter NAO index (small air pressure difference) as particularly extremely in 1995/96 is characterized by relatively weak western winds and by a large influence of the continental winter high pressure area with therefore low temperatures (e.g. in March 1996, see figure) and little precipitation in West, North and Central Europe. In contrast, a positive NAO index (high air pressure difference, extreme in 1988/89) coincides with relatively strong western winds, which cause mild temperatures (e.g. in March 1989) and higher precipitation rates

40 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands At least in those European areas which are affected by the NAO nearly all bird species are able to adapt the progress of their migration to the temperature and thus to the food availability along their migration route, i.e. to migrate earlier if food is available early. Two examples, the Common Redstart P hoenicurus phoenicurus as a LM and the Dunnock P runella modularis as a SMM illustrate this for the Helgoland trappings (Fig. 3). Formerly it was expected that the LM, wintering south of the Sahara and thus uncoupled from the weather conditions in Europe, are not as able to keep pace with climate change in Europe as SMM are. Fig. 3. Relationship between mean spring passage time and winter NAO-index (as a measure for the readiness of the homebound migration route) in a long distance migrant (Common Redstart, left) and a short/medium distance migrant (Dunnock, right) on the island of Helgoland, North Sea, from 1960 to 2007 (completed after Hüppop & Hüppop 2005). While the change of the NAO causes earlier arrivals in Europe, it can have a contrary effect in Africa and in the Mediterranean area: A high winter NAO-index, which causes a warmer and more humid winter climate in western, central and northern Europe, coincides with a decreased productivity of the vegetation in the Mediterranean area, in north Africa and in the Sahel zone. Indeed, in connection with increasingly more positive NAO winters it became drier, and especially in the 1980 and 1990 years warmer, not only in the Mediterranean area (an important wintering area of Scandinavian SMM) but also in the Sahel zone and south of it (the main wintering area of the LM): This generally means a deterioration of the wintering conditions for European migratory birds. Actually, adult Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica arrive later in their Italian breeding areas after unfavourable wintering conditions in Africa. LM reach their western Mediterranean passage areas later in years with higher temperatures and/or less precipitation in Africa. Accordingly, Spanish scientists can explain an increasing delay of the arrival of migratory birds in the Mediterranean area

41 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea over 50 years, despite a simultaneous increase of local temperature, with the climate change in the African wintering areas: The weather (in particular the precipitation) in the African wintering areas before the beginning of homeward migration has a stronger influence on the arrival of LM in the western Mediterranean passage area than the climate in their potential breeding areas. Presumably, a poor food offer under unfavourable climatic conditions in the wintering areas has direct influence on the deposition of fat reserves for migration and thus on the beginning of the homeward migration. However, despite the possibly retarded departure from the wintering areas and despite the later passage in southern Europe, many migratory birds arrive earlier in central and northern Europe. Hence it can be assumed that the deteriorating wintering conditions in Africa and in the Mediterranean area get more than compensated by the increasingly more favourable conditions over western, central and northern Europe and finally result in earliness. A fast genetic adjustment of changed spring migration times so far is not provable. Weather in general is very variable and birds can t make any forecast for the following year. A high flexibility in the reaction to current conditions is advantageous in every spring. The change of migration times is therefore rather a result of phenotypic plasticity than of microevolutional processes. Peter Berthold and colleagues at Vogelwarte Radolfzell assume that individuals are not able to compare the weather in sequential years in the context of its high short and long-term variability, and to draw objective conclusions over climatic trends. Despite a general warming in the Northern Hemisphere the unpredictability of cold winters and springs apparently prevents a rapid and close genetic adjustment of changed spring migration times in birds. Changes of autumn migration times The changes in autumn, when birds migrate to their wintering areas, are not as clear as in spring. Both, delays and advancements, were observed even at the same sites. On the Courish Spit at the Baltic coast exist diverse trends in different periods of the last decades and on the Kola Peninsula in the north of Russia delays and advancements of autumn migration are balanced. Advancements in autumn migration, which were observed e.g. on the British Isles and in Switzerland, on the one hand are interpreted as consequence of an earlier arrival in the breeding area and hence of all following activities in the course of the year: Since an early arrival in the breeding area entails also an accordingly earlier egg laying, one could expect that this leads to a close temporal coupling of the breeding with the following moult and autumn migration. On the

42 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands other hand it is discussed that in particular the LM tended to arrive in the wintering areas as early as possible before the dry season: Due to their earlier arrival they should be able to leave their breeding grounds earlier and thus to avoid the bottleneck in the Mediterranean passage areas, which gets narrower by climatic change. Since in song birds above all the inner clock releases migration (in interaction with day length) and since the beginning of migration is closely connected with the end of the juvenile moult, one could actually expect that early arrival entails also early departure. Contrary to this hypothesis, however, rather a delay of autumn migration over the last decades was observed in the majority of species at several central European ringing stations, including Helgoland (Fig. 4). Further, the Helgoland data prove that mean autumn passage times are independent from the respective mean spring passage times. Fig. 4. Trends towards delayed mean autumn passage times in a long distance migrant (Spotted Flycatcher, left) and a short/medium distance migrant (Blackbird, right) on the island of Helgoland from 1960 to 2007 (completed after Hüppop & Hüppop 2005). Also, the connections of the phenological changes of migratory birds with weather and climate in autumn are not as clear as in spring. The Central European climate changed over the last decades also in summer and in autumn, but not as obviously and uniformly as in winter. Also the influences of the large scale weather situation on temperatures and precipitation are clearly less pronounced in summer than in winter. However, cyclonic (low pressure) southwest situations in the summer, which fit to warmer weather, generally increased by the end of the last century in frequency and anticyclonic northwest situations, which fit to colder weather, became scarcer in the summer in the course of the century. According to the spring earliness in the course of climate warming an increase of summer and autumn temperatures, related to the possibly changed food offer in the

43 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea breeding areas, could explain a delay in autumn departure. Extension of the stay in the breeding areas An earlier passage in spring and a later, or even unchanged passage in autumn imply a longer stay in the breeding areas. According to trappings on Helgoland this time interval extended in some species such as Blackbird, Song Thrush Turdus philomelos, Chiffchaff and Spotted Flycatcher by more than two weeks (Fig. 5). As average value of 20 species an extension of the time interval between spring and autumn migration by 10.3 days in 46 years or 2.2 days per decade was calculated. This phenomenon was found to a similar extend in both migration types, the SSM and the LM. Fig. 5. Increase of the mean time spent in the breeding areas in the Spotted Flycatcher (long distance migrant, left) and in the Blackbird (short/medium distance migrant, right) based on trapping data on the island of Helgoland from 1960 to 2007 (completed after Hüppop & Hüppop 2005). The number of the broods in one season is different between species and mainly genetically determined. Within flexible species it also depends directly on a combination of weather and food availability, so that in these species an extension of the stay in the breeding area can result in an increase of the number of broods in one season. For species, which can raise definitely only one brood, the time gain could allow at least more replacement broods. Such a possible increase of breeding success in connection with the extension of the stay in the breeding area in the course of climate warming is proved by the increase of the proportion of young birds during autumn migration in the last decades in several species on Helgoland

44 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands It is generally accepted that possible disadvantages due to climate change will affect the LM more than the SMM. Nevertheless, for some LM the changes first proved as even favourable. However, long term data sets from Europe and North America emphasize that the population sizes of numerous LM, if not of all, decreased considerably during the last decades while those of the other migrant types remained rather unchanged. The increase of the proportion of juveniles found also in LM on autumn migration at Helgoland implies at a first glimpse that also LM can profit from the climatic changes. But the increased reproduction rate presumably only masks the negative effects of climatic change on the LM: without this compensation mechanism, population decreases would be even stronger than observed so far. Without doubt, advantages and disadvantages of climate change usually cannot be clearly differentiated. Besides, they act and interact in a not quantifiable extent in different seasons and incompletely different regions. It is thus difficult to interpret the change of population sizes in the course of the climatic change reliably. Predictions of the further change of bird migration phenomena and of migratory bird populations are hardly possible, since both, the high complexity and the hardly known feedbacks of the system, permit several scenarios of climate change in the future. It will be exciting, however, to experience whether migratory birds, in particular the LM, will be flexible and adaptable in the future to a sufficient extent. Only the systematic continuation of the large scale data acquisition offers the possibility to observe the further developments in detail. Further reading Berthold, P. (2001): Bird Migration. A General Survey. Second Edition. Oxford University Press New York. Both, C., S. Bouwhuis, C.M. Lessells, & M.E. Visser (2006): Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature 441: Hüppop, K. & O. Hüppop (2005): Atlas zur Vogelberingung auf Helgoland. Teil 3: Veränderungen von Heim- und Wegzugzeiten von 1960 bis Vogelwarte 43: Hüppop, O. & K. Hüppop (2003): North Atlantic Oscillation and timing of spring migration in birds. Proc R Soc Lond B 270: Hüppop, O. & W. Winkel (2006):Climate change and timing of spring migration in the long-distance migrant Ficedula hypoleuca in central Europe: the role of spatially different temperature changes along migration routes. J. Ornithol. 147: Møller, A.P., W. Fiedler & P. Berthold (2004): Birds and climate change. Advances in Ecological Research 35. Elsevier Science, London. Newton, I. (2008): The migration ecology of birds. Academic Press. London, Burlington, San Diego

45 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea Parmesan, C. (2007): Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. Global Change Biology 13: Root, T.L., J.T. Price, K.R. Hall, S.H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig & J.A. Pounds (2003): Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: Rosenzweig, C., G. Casassa, D.J. Karoly, A. Imeson, C. Liu, A. Menzel, S. Rawlins, T.L. Root, B. Seguin & P. Tryjanowski (2007): Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Sparks, T.H., F. Bairlein, J.G. Bojarinova, O. Hüppop, E.A. Lehikoinen, K. Rainio, L.V. Sokolov & D. Walker (2005): Examining the total arrival distribution of migratory birds. Global Change Biology 11:

46 Proceeding of the 2nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands 27 October 2008, Changwon, Korea 기후변화와 철새 이동시기의 변화 Climate changes and timing of bird migration Ommo Hüppop * and Kathrin Hüppop Institute of Avian Research "Vogelwarte Helgoland", Island Station P.O.Box 1220, D Helgoland, Germany ( * XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX) 평균 기온이 상승하고 많은 지역에서 강수량이 변화하는 등 최근 전 세계적으로 예전보다 더 무서운 속도와 규모로 기후가 변하고 있다. 이러한 기후변화로 인하여 새들의 연간 생체리듬에 영향을 미치는 여러 가지 외부 요인들도 역시 변하게 된다. 지금까지 관찰된 변화들은 각 지역 에 따라 질적, 양적으로 다양한 것이 분명하다. 본고에서는 유럽의 사례를 바탕으로 아래와 같 은 내용에 대해 살펴보고자 한다. 기후변화는 철새에게 어떤 영향을 미치는가? 이런 변화에 대 응할 수 있는 능력을 갖고 있는가? 기후변화는 어떤 종에게 더 유리하며, 어떤 종에게 불리하 게 작용하는가? 또 앞으로 어떤 방식으로 진행 될 것인가? 철새는 계절과 관련된 기후 조건과 이용할 수 있는 먹이에 적응하며 진화되었다. 대부분의 온대 및 북극 지역의 새들은 겨울을 나기 위해 적합한 지역을 찾는 것이 필수적이라는 것이다. 단거리 또는 중 거리를 이동하는 철새(short- and middle-distance migrants) 중의 많은 종들이 유럽의 중부, 남부 또는 동부에서 겨울을 보낸다. 반면 장거리를 이동하는 수많은 철새(long-distance migrants)들은 더 먼 곳인 아프리카 서쪽, 동쪽 또는 남쪽까지 이동을 하고, 지중해와 사하라 사막을 건너는 위험도 감수한다. 번 식지 또는 월동지에 도착하기 위하여 철새들은 아주 먼 거리를 이동해야 하며, 이동 중에 대부분 아주 혹독한 기후조건과 맞서야 한다. 철새들은 수천년 동안 이러한 여러 가지 외부요인의 작용을 통해서 진 화해 왔으며, 어느 정도의 유동성을 보이며 연간 또는 지역적 기후 조건에 일치하는 양상을 보인다. 따 라서 기후변화와 함께 철새의 이동시기도 놀라운 수준의 적응력을 보여 왔다

47 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea 빨라진 봄철 이동 시기 지난 세월 동안 철새와 다른 생물체들의 생체 리듬이 변해왔으며, 특히 이른 봄에 그런 변화를 극적 으로 느낄 수 있다. 철새의 경우 특정지역을 더 빨리 지나가고 더 빨리 번식지에 도착하며, 번식 시기와 요소(parameter), 번식 지역의 변화를 증명할 수 있었다. 이러한 시기적 변화는 전 세계적으로 관찰이 가능하며, 동일시기에 통과하지만 통과 거리가 다른 철새(장거리나 중거리를 이동하는 철새와 단거리를 이동하는 철새)와 이동 시기에 차이가 있지만 수컷과 암컷 모두에게서 동일하게 나타난다. 지난 47년 ( ) 동안 독일 북해 연안의 헬고란트(Helgoland) 섬으로 도래하는 철새의 시기가 다음과 같이 빨라졌다. 대륙검은지빠귀(Blackbird)와 Spotted Flycatcher 11일 (Fig. 1), 연노랑솔새(Willow Warbler) 약 13일, 쇠흰턱딱새(Lesser Whitethroat)와 검은다리솔새(Chiffchaff) 약 14일, 멧도요 약 15일, Blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) 약 17일이다. 24종의 평균을 내보면 헬고란트에서는 약 8.6일이 앞당겨진 것을 발견 할 수 있다. 47년간의 이 평균 수치는 10년 동안 약 1.8일씩 빨라진다는 것을 의미한다. Lehikoinen, Sparks, Zalakevicius는 유럽의 다양한 조사결과들을 종합하여 철새의 평균이동시기(mean migration time)는 10년간 약 1일이 빨라졌으며, 최초 도래일(first arrival date)은 10년 마다 약 4일씩 앞당겨졌다 고 발표했다(Möller et al. 2004). 이 같은 변화는 철새 그리고 헬고란트에서만 나타나는 것이 아니다. 유럽과 미국 학자들로 구성된 연 구단체는 동식물에 대한 다양한 조사결과, 전 세계적으로 이른 봄에 일어나는 현상들이 10년 마다 약 2 일에서 3일씩 앞당겨 졌다는 것을 밝혀내었다. 철새의 생체리듬 변화는 최근에 찾아온 극심한 기후 변화와 관련이 있다. 수많은 유럽 학자들의 연구 에 의하면 유라시아의 조류들은 기온이 1 상승할 때마다 평균 2.5일에서 3.3일 더 빨리 도래한다. 그 러나 떠나는 시기는 현지의 기후보다 돌아가는 경로가 속하는 더 광범위한 지역의 기후에 의해서 결정 Fig 부터 2007년 까지 독일 북해 연안의 헬고란트(Heligoland) 섬에서 기록된 Spotted Flycatcher (왼쪽: Muscicapa striata, 장거리를 이동하는 철새)와 대륙검은지빠귀 (오른쪽: Turdus merula, 단거리 또는 중거리를 이동하는 철새)의 도래시기가 빨라졌다

48 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands 된다. 점차 기온이 높아지는 번식지인 유럽뿐만 아니라 북아메리카에도 중간 기착지의 온도가 상승 혹 은 하강한 경우에는 철새들이 더 빨리 도래하지 않는다. 이러한 현상은 철새가 이동하는 현상을 살펴보 북대서양 진동 지수(NAO index) 북대서양 진동 지수(NAO index: North Atlantic Oscillation index)란 수년 주기로 발생하는 북 극과 남부 유럽의 기압변화를 말한다. 이러한 북대서양 진동 지수는 유럽의 서쪽, 북쪽, 중앙 지역 의 날씨에 영향을 미친다. 북대서양 진동지수는 매달 북극과 아이슬란드 기압의 평균차이로서 산 출되며, 매달 기상상황의 특징을 부여해주는 역할을 한다. 겨울과 초봄에는 대기가 가장 역동적인 시기이므로 북대서양 진동 지수의 변동이 크다. 12월부터 3월까지의 북대서양 진동 지수의 평균값 을 통해서 겨울과 초봄의 대체적인 기상상황을 알아낼 수 있고, 광범위하게 날씨와 기후와 연관된 생태적인 현상의 연관성을 알아낼 수 있다. 특히 1995/96년처럼 북대서양 진동 지수가 마이너스일 경우(기압 차이가 적을 경우) 대체적으로 약한 서풍, 더 큰 대륙의 고기압 지역의 영향을 받게 되 므로, 유럽의 서쪽, 북쪽, 중부 지역에는 기온이 낮아지고 강수량이 적어진다. 1988/89년처럼 북대 서양 진동 지수가 플러스일 경우(기압 차이가 높을 경우) 대체적으로 강한 서풍으로 인해 기온이 온난하고(예를 들어 1989년 3월) 강수량은 높아진다

49 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea 아도 찾아볼 수 있다. 핀란드 남부의 경우에는 겨울철 기온이 상승하고 철새가 남서쪽에서 북동쪽으로 북상하는 경로에 들어서는 이동 초기의 기온이 상승함에 따라 전반적으로 번식지에 빨리 도래하게 되었 다. 그러나 늦은 봄의 기온은 아직 큰 변동이 없기 때문에, 개별적으로는 변화를 보이지 않는 경우도 있 다. 유럽에서는 철새의 이동 경로가 되는 광범위한 지역의 기후 현상이 북대서양 진동 지수(NAO index) 에 의해 결정된다. 북대서양 진동 지수는 유럽 서부, 중부, 북부의 광범위한 지역에서 기온, 강우량, 풍 속, 풍향을 결정하며, 무엇보다도 겨울철에 강한 영향을 미친다. 이는 북대서양 진동 지수가 철새들이 이동할 때 필요한 환경을 좌우하는 것을 의미한다. 겨울 북대서양 진동 지수(12월부터 3월까지)가 양의 값 보일 경우에는 서풍이 더 많이 불고 기온이 높으며 강수량이 더 빨리 증가되므로, 생태적으로는 철 새들이 먹이를 더 빨리 찾을 수 있게 된다. 실제로 겨울 날씨의 잣대인 겨울 북대서양 진동 지수가 지 난 수십 년 동안 점점 더 양의 값을 향해서 발달해 왔다(Fig 2). 최소한 북대서양 진동 지수의 영향을 받는 유럽지역에서는 거의 모든 종들이 이동하는 시기를 기온, 즉 먹이조건에 맞춘다. 따라서 헬고란트의 장거리 철새인 Common Redstart (Phoenicurus phoenicurus) 와 단/중거리 철새인 Dunnock (Prunella modularis)의 경우처럼 먹이가 있는 한 더 빨리 이동을 시작할 수 있다(Fig. 3). 사하라 남쪽지역에서 겨울을 나는 장거리 철새의 경우 유럽의 기후변화에 단/중거리 철 새들보다 잘 적응하지 못할 것으로 생각되었다. Fig 년부터 2007년까지 겨울 북대서양 진동 지수(Winter-NAO index)가 점차 양의 값을 보이는 빈도가 증가한다. ( ac.uk/cru/data/nao.htm)

50 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Fig 년부터 2007년까지 헬고란트의 대표적인 장거리 철새인 Common Redstart (왼 쪽)와 대표적인 단/중거리 철새인 Dunnock (아래)의 평균이동시기와 겨울 북대서양 진동 지수(철새 이동의 준비 기준)와의 관계 유럽의 북대서양 진동 지수는 철새의 도래 시기와 연관이 있지만, 아프리카와 지중해 연안에는 그 반 대의 효과를 불러일으킬 수 있다. 가장 먼저 이동 시기가 늦어진다. 높은 겨울 북대서양 진동 지수는 유 럽의 서부, 중부, 북부에 더 따뜻하고 습한 겨울을 형성하지만, 오히려 지중해, 북아프리카, 사헬 지역 (Sahel zone; 사하라 사막 남부에 길게 형성된 초지)에는 생태계의 생산성이 떨어지게 된다. 실제로 겨 울 북대서양 진동 지수가 점차 증가하면서는 스칸디나비아에서 이동한 단/중거리 철새의 월동지역인 지 중해 연안뿐만 아니라 장거리 철새의 주요 월동지인 사헬 지역과 그 남쪽 지역이 더 고온 건조해졌으 며, 특히 1980년부터 1990년까지 이런 현상이 두드러졌다. 이런 기상의 변화로 인해 유럽 철새들의 월동 조건들이 전반적으로 나빠졌다. 예를 들어, 아프리카의 나빠진 월동조건으로 인해 제비(Hirundo rustica)들이 번식지인 이탈리아에 늦게 도착하는 경우가 생겼다. 장거리 철새의 경우 아프리카에 기온 이 높고 강우량이 낮을 경우 이동 경로인 지중해 서부 지역을 더 늦게 지나간다. 스페인의 학자들은 50 년 동안 동일한 기온 상승을 보이면서도 지중해 연안에 철새들이 늦게 도착하는 이유가 월동지역인 아 프리카의 기후변화에 의한 것이라고 말한다. 장거리 철새들이 지중해 서부 연안의 이동 경로를 통과하 는 시기는 잠재적인 번식지의 기후보다 번식지로 출발가기 이전에 월동지인 아프리카의 기후(주로 강우 량)에서 더 큰 영향을 받는다. 이는 아마도 월동지의 기후 조건이 좋지 않은 먹이 조건을 형성하여 이동 에 필요한 에너지 비축량에 직접적인 영향을 주기 때문일 것이다. 그러나 월동지에서의 출발이 늦어지고 남유럽을 거치는 시점이 늦춰진 것에도 불구하고, 많은 철새들 이 유럽 중부와 북부에 일찍 도착한다. 이러한 정황으로 비춰본다면 유럽의 서부, 중부, 북부 지역의 기 후 조건이 점점 더 유리해면서 월동지의 불리한 조건들을 압도하기 때문에 철새들이 더 빨리 도착하는 것으로 분석된다. 철새의 이동시기 변화가 유전적으로 설정된 것인가는 아직 증명되지 않았다. 날씨는 매우 변덕스럽고, 다음 해의 날씨는 정확히 예보할 수 없다. 이동시기의 기후 상황은 미리 알 수 없지만, 이른 봄의 기후

51 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea 에 맞게 유동적인 반응을 보이는 것이 적합하다. 그렇기 때문에 이동시기의 변화는 소진화 (microevolution) 과정보다는 표현형 유동성(phenotypic plasticity)의 결과라고 할 수 있다. 페터 베르트 홀트(Peter Berthold)와 라돌프첼 조류 연구소(Vogelwarte Radolfzell)의 연구원들은 각 철새들이 단기적 또는 장기적으로 다양하게 반응하므로, 단지 몇 년 동안의 기상 변화에 대한 철새의 반응이 객관적으로 기후 변화에 따른 추세라고 결론짓기가 어렵다고 한다. 북반구의 전반적인 기온상승에도 불구하고, 겨울 이나 이른 봄에 예측할 수 없이 닥치는 추위가 철새의 이동시기를 유전적으로 빠르게 조정되는 것을 방 지하는 것으로 보인다. 가을철 이동 시기의 변화 동일한 장소에서 이동시기가 앞당겨지거나 늦어지는 현상이 나타나기도 하지만, 가을의 변화는 봄의 변화만큼 명확하게 나타나지 않는다. 발트 연안의 크로니안 스피트(Curonian Spit)에는 지난 수 십 년 동안 서로 다른 시기에 차이를 보이는 경향이 나타났고, 러시아 북쪽의 콜라 반도(Kola peninsula)에는 철새의 이동시기가 늦춰지거나 앞당겨지며 균형을 이루고 있다. 영국의 섬과 스위스에서 관찰된 가을 이동시기의 조기화 추세는 한편으로는 번식지의 도래 시기가 빨 라지고 1년 동안 이뤄지는 모든 활동이 앞당겨지는 현상의 결과로 해석될 수 있다. 번식지에 빨리 도착 하는 것은 번식시기도 앞당겨지는 것을 의미하기 때문에, 그 이후에 이어지는 깃털갈이 시기부터 월동 지로의 출발시기까지 앞당겨지는 것을 의미할 수 있다. 다른 한 편으로는 철새들, 특히 장거리를 이동하 는 철새들은 건기 이전에 월동지에 도착해야 하는 압력을 받기 때문이라는 주장도 제시되고 있다. 번식 지에 더 빨리 도착하기 때문에 월동지로 더 빨리 출발하는 것이 가능하며, 기후변화로 인해 점점 더 좁 아지고 있는 중간 기착지를 더 빨리 통과할 수 있을 것이다. 명금류(songbirds)의 경우 무엇보다 낮의 길이와 관련된 생체 시계 가 월동지로의 출발시기를 정하며, 이 때 출발시기는 새끼의 깃털갈이 시기와 밀접한 관계를 갖고 있기 때문에 유럽으로의 도래 시기가 빨 라지는 현상은 유럽을 떠나는 시기 역시 앞당긴다고 볼 수 있을 것이다. 이러한 주장과는 다르게 중부 유럽에서는 독일 바이에른 지역의 위쪽(Oberbayern), 보덴제(Bodensee)의 란데커 마르(Randecker Maar)와 헬고란트(Helgoland)에는 조사된 종류 외에 지난 수 십 년간 시기가 늦춰지는 현상이 나타나고 있다(Fig. 4). 또한 헬고란트에서 조사된 데이터들은 철새의 평균출발시기가 평균도래시기와는 무관하다 는 것을 보여준다. 철새 이동의 기후적 연관성들은 가을보다 연초에 더 명확하게 나타난다. 중부 유럽의 기후가 지난 수 십 년 동안 가을과 여름에도 변화를 보였지만 겨울의 변화만큼 뚜렷하고 일정하게 나타나지는 않았다. 또한 온도, 강우량과 관련된 기후의 변화도 여름보다 겨울에 더 명확하게 나타난다. 여름철 사이클론(열 대 저기압)이 남서쪽에 위치하여 전반적으로 더 온난한 기후를 유발하게 되는 빈도가 지난 세기 말에

52 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Fig 부터 2007년까지 헬고란트(Heligoland)에서 장거리 이동 철새인 Spotted Flycatcher (왼쪽)와 단/중거리 이동 철새인 대륙검은지빠귀(오른쪽)의 떠나는 시기가 늦춰 지고 있다. (Hüppop and Hüppop (2005) 자료를 보완) 증가하였다. 반면 서늘한 기후의 원인이 되는 여름철 북서쪽 저기압은 시간이 지날수록 점점 드물게 나 타난다. 따라서 기온 상승으로 인해 철새가 월동지로 돌아가는 시기, 즉 출발시기의 기온의 상승 또는 번식지의 먹이조건의 변화로 인해 출발 시기가 늦춰진 것을 설명해 줄 수 있을 것이다. 번식지에서의 체류 기간 증가 봄철 이동시기가 앞당겨지고 가을에는 똑같이 유지됨으로 인하여, 철새들이 번식지에 머무르는 시기 가 길어지게 되었다. 헬고란트의 경우 대륙검은지빠귀, Song Thrush (Turdus philomelos), 검은다리솔 새, Spotted Flycatcher가 머무는 시기가 약 2주 이상 길어진 것으로 밝혀졌다(Fig. 5). 헬고란트에 출현 하는 20종의 경우 머무는 시기가 47년 동안 약 10.3일, 또는 10년 동안 약 2.2일 연장된 것이다. 이러한 현상은 단/중거리 이동 철새뿐만 아니라 장거리 이동 철새에게서도 나타난다. 이 두 종류의 철새 모두 헬고란트에서 잡히는 시기를 분석하면 번식지에 머무는 시기가 47년 동안 약 9일 또는 매 10년간 약 2 일 길어진 것이다. 철새의 새끼 수는 번식 시기별, 종별 또는 유전적으로 다르지만, 새끼를 낳는 수에 유동성을 보이는 종류의 경우 기후와 먹이의 영향을 받는다. 그렇기 때문에 번식지에서 머무는 기간의 연장은 곧 번식 시기의 새끼 수와 관련이 있다. 한 배(clutch) 새끼들만 키울 수 있는 철새에게 있어 증가된 체류시간은 추가 번식 기회를 얻을 수 있다는 것을 의미한다. 기후변화에 따라 증가한 번식지에서의 체류기간, 또 이로 인한 번식 지수의 증가로 인해 지난 수 십 년 동안 헬고란트로 돌아오는 많은 철새 무리에서 어린 새끼들의 비율이 높아졌다. 대체적으로 기후변화의 단점들은 단/중거리를 이동하는 철새보다 장거리 이동 철새들에게 더 심각한

53 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea 1960년부터 2007년까지 헬고란트의 Spotted Flycatcher (왼쪽, 장거리 이동 철새)와 대륙검은지빠귀(오른쪽, 단/중거리 이동 철새)가 번식지에 머무는 시기가 연장되었다. (Hüppop and Hüppop (2005) 자료를 보완) Fig. 5. 타격을 줄 것으로 예상된다. 수많은 단/중거리 이동 철새들에게는 기후의 변화가 오히려 장점으로 작용 하기도 했다. 유럽과 북아메리카의 장거리 이동 철새들은, 모든 종류는 아니지만, 지난 수십 년간 이미 개체수가 감소한 것으로 밝혀졌으나, 단/중거리 이동 철새의 경우에는 거의 개체수에 변화가 없다. 반면, 헬고란트를 떠날 때 새끼의 비율이 높아진 것은 장거리 이동 철새도 기후변화를 통한 이익을 볼 수 있 다는 것을 보여준다. 새끼의 개체수가 증가하면서 장거리 이동 철새도 기후변화의 부정적인 영향을 다 소 완화시킬 수 있을 것이다. 새끼들의 수가 증가하지 않았다면, 장거리 이동 철새의 전체 개체수는 현 저히 줄어들었을 것으로 생각된다. 이처럼 대부분의 경우 기후변화의 장점과 단점을 명확하게 구분하기 는 힘들다. 또한 기후변화의 영향은 아주 다양한 규모, 다른 계절, 다른 지역에서 나타난다. 그렇기 때문 에 기후변화로 인해 철새의 개체수가 줄어들었다고 명확하게 규명하는 것은 어려운 일이다. 생태계의 복잡성과 아직까지 밝혀지지 않은 반응들로 인해 수많은 시나리오가 가능할 수 있으므로, 향후 철새의 이동 양상 변화와 개체군 변동을 정확하게 미리 예측하는 것은 불가능에 가까울 수 있다. 그러나 앞으로 철새들, 특히 장거리 이동 철새들이 얼마만큼 충분한 유동성과 적응력을 보여줄지 지켜 본다는 것은 흥미로운 일이다. 앞으로의 변화를 구체적으로 알아내기 위해서는 광범위한 데이터를 체계 적이고 지속적으로 수집해야 할 것이다. 참고 문헌 Berthold, P. (2001): Bird Migration. A General Survey. Second Edition. Oxford University Press New York. Both, C., S. Bouwhuis, C.M. Lessells, & M.E. Visser (2006): Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature 441: Hüppop, K. & O. Hüppop (2005): Atlas zur Vogelberingung auf Helgoland. Teil 3: Veränderungen

54 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands von Heim- und Wegzugzeiten von 1960 bis Vogelwarte 43: Hüppop, O. & K. Hüppop (2003): North Atlantic Oscillation and timing of spring migration in birds. Proc R Soc Lond B 270: Hüppop, O. & W. Winkel (2006):Climate change and timing of spring migration in the long-distance migrant Ficedula hypoleuca in central Europe: the role of spatially different temperature changes along migration routes. J. Ornithol. 147: Møller, A.P., W. Fiedler & P. Berthold (2004): Birds and climate change. Advances in Ecological Research 35. Elsevier Science, London. Newton, I. (2008): The migration ecology of birds. Academic Press. London, Burlington, San Diego. Parmesan, C. (2007): Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. Global Change Biology 13: Root, T.L., J.T. Price, K.R. Hall, S.H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig & J.A. Pounds (2003): Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: Rosenzweig, C., G. Casassa, D.J. Karoly, A. Imeson, C. Liu, A. Menzel, S. Rawlins, T.L. Root, B. Seguin & P. Tryjanowski (2007): Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Sparks, T.H., F. Bairlein, J.G. Bojarinova, O. Hüppop, E.A. Lehikoinen, K. Rainio, L.V. Sokolov & D. Walker (2005): Examining the total arrival distribution of migratory birds. Global Change Biology 11:

55 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea Dr. Ommo Hüppop 직책 및 연락처 P osition and Contact I nformation: Vogelwarte Helgoland 조류 연구소, 도서기지 책임자 Head of the Island Station Institute of Avian Research "Vogelwarte Helgoland", Germany XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Tel: 주요 경력 E xperience Summary: 북해 남동부에 위치한 헬고란트 섬에서 1988년 이후 Vogelwarte Helgoland 조류 연구소 의 도서기지 책임자로서 연구를 수행하고 있다. Since 1988 head of the " Island Station" of the Institute of Avian Research " Vogelwarte Helgoland" on the small island of Helgoland (southeastern North-Sea). 학력 E ducation: - Study of Zoology, Botany, Hydrobiology and Fisheries at the University of Hamburg (Diploma in 1983). - PhD on energetics of free-living Herring Gulls at the University of Hamburg in 관심 분야 Ornithological I nterests: - 철새 이동과 해조류 생태, 인간의 활동과 기후변화가 새들에게 미치는 영향 등 Bird migration, seabird ecology, effects of human activities and climate change on birds 주요 저서 및 논문 Selected P ublications: - 동물상, 생태학, 생리학 및 보전과 관련된 150여 편 이상의 논문과 저서를 발표하였다. More than 150 publications on faunistic, ecological, physiological and conservation issues Hüppop, O. & S. Wurm (2000): Effects of winter fishery activities on resting numbers, food and body condition of large gulls Larus argentatus and L. marinus in the south-eastern North Sea. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 194:

56 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Hüppop, O. & K. Hüppop (2003): North Atlantic Oscillation and timing of spring migration in birds. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B.: Bairlein, F. & O. Hüppop (2004): Migratory fuelling and global climate change. Adv. Ecol. Res. 35: Garthe, S. & O. Hüppop (2004): Scaling possible adverse effects of marine wind farms on seabirds: developing and applying a vulnerability index. J. Appl. Ecol. 41: Hüppop, O., J. Dierschke, K.-M. Exo, E. Fredrich & R. Hill (2006): Bird migration studies and potential collision risk with offshore wind turbines. Ibis 148: Hüppop, O. & W. Winkel (2006): Climate change and timing of spring migration in the long-distance migrant Ficedula hypoleuca in central Europe: the role of spatially different temperature changes along migration routes. J. Ornithol. 147:

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58 Proceeding of the 2nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands 27 October 2008, Changwon, Korea Phenological response to climate change and population trends of migratory birds 기후변화에 대한 철새의 시기적 반응과 개체군 변동 Diego Rubolini 1*, Anders P. Møller 2 and Esa Lehikoinen 3 1 Dipartimento di Biologia, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria 26, I Milano, Italy 2 Laboratoire de Parasitologie Evolutive, CNRS UMR 7103, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Bât. A, 7ème étage, 7 quai St. Bernard, Case 237, F Paris Cedex 05, France 3 Department of Biology, University of Turku, FI Turku, Finland ( * XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX ) Abstract The recent increase in temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere is causing marked changes in the phenology of plants and animals, which shows a trend towards earlier start of spring events, such as flowering and leaf emergence, or earlier onset of breeding activities. Migratory birds make no exception, and there are several studies documenting advances in timing of spring migration in recent decades. However, not all species have advanced their migration timing, and this may have lead to a mismatch between timing of reproduction of these species and the peak seasonal availability of their main food sources. In fact, organism belonging to different trophic levels, such as e.g. insectivorous birds and their invertebrate prey, may have different abilities to show a phenological response to rapid climate change, and prey could advance phenology more than predators. Importantly, mismatched species could suffer from reduced reproductive output, leading to population declines. We have reviewed the long-term changes in timing of spring migration among European bird species in the period , and - besides confirming a general pattern of advance of migration dates - found that such changes varied significantly among species, different populations of the same species consistently showing an advance, whereas populations of other species did not change or even delayed their phenology. We then analysed whether the phenological response to climate change, as assessed by long-term trend in spring

59 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea migration timing, predicted population trends, assuming that species that did not advance timing of migration could be more mismatched compared to their food sources, and thus be characterized by declining populations. Indeed, we found that species that did not advance timing of spring migration suffered stronger population declines in the period compared to species which advanced their timing of spring migration, whose populations were instead stable or increasing. Therefore, failure to adjust timing of spring migration to climate change may increase the chances of extinction of migratory bird species in the near future. 요 약 최근 북반구 전반에 걸쳐 나타나는 기온 상승은 봄에 나타나는 현상, 즉 식물의 개화( 開 花 )와 출엽 ( 出 葉 ), 동물의 번식 등과 같은 현상이 일찍 나타나는 추세를 보이며, 동식물의 생물기후에 상당한 변화를 유발하고 있다. 지난 수십 년간 철새의 봄철 이동이 빨라지고 있음을 보여주는 여러 연구를 통해서, 철새의 경우도 이런 변화에 예외가 아니라는 것이 밝혀지고 있다. 그러나 모든 철새의 이동 시기가 빨라지는 것이 아니며, 이로 인해 철새의 번식 시기와 그들의 주요 먹이자원이 가장 많아지는 시기가 서로 일치하지 않는 상황이 발생할 수 있다. 예를 들어 식충성 조류와 그들의 먹이가 되는 무 척추동물처럼, 서로 다른 섭식 단계에 속하는 생물들은 실제로 급격한 기후변화에 시기적으로 반응하 는 능력이 서로 다를 수 있으며, 이로 인해 먹이 생물이 포식자보다 더 빨리 출현할 수 있다. 중요한 것은 이처럼 시기를 맞추지 못한 종이 번식에서 좋지 못한 결과를 얻을 수 있으므로 개체군이 감소 하게 될 수 있다는 점이다. 1960년에서 2006년까지 유럽에 서식하는 조류들이 봄철 이동 시기의 장 기적 변화를 살펴본 결과, 우리는 철새의 이동 날짜가 앞당겨지는 일반적인 경향을 확인하였다. 그 뿐만 아니라 그런 변화가 종에 따라 상당히 다양하며, 같은 종에 속하는 서로 다른 개체군들이 모두 일관되게 이동 시기가 앞당겨지는 경우도 있는 반면 다른 종의 개체군들은 변화가 없거나 오히려 늦 춰지는 경우도 있음을 확인하였다. 봄철 이동 시기에 장기적인 추세가 있음을 파악한 것처럼, 우리는 이동 시기가 앞당겨지지 않은 종일수록 먹이 자원의 발생 시기와 더 큰 시기적인 차이를 보일 것이 고 이로 인해 개체군이 감소하는 특징을 보일 것이라는 가정 하에, 기후변화에 대한 시기적인 반응이 개체군의 변동 추세를 예측할 수 있는지를 분석하였다. 우리는 예상대로 봄철 이동 시기가 빨라진 종 은 안정적이거나 증가하고 있는 반면 그렇지 않은 종은 년 사이에 더 급격한 개체수 감소 를 겪고 있는 것을 확인하였다. 따라서 기후변화에 따라 봄철 이동 시기의 조절에 실패하는 현상은 머지않아 철새의 멸종 위기 기회를 증가시킬 수 있을 것으로 보인다. Introduction It is becoming increasingly recognized that ongoing anthropogenic climate changes are affecting the life cycles of organisms and ecosystems functioning worldwide (IPCC 2001, 2007). However, the impacts of climate change are not uniformly distributed on the Earth surface, but are particularly evident in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC 2001, 2007). Here, the marked

60 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands temperature rise observed in the course of the 20th century, in addition to causing extensive environmental changes, is having profound consequences for the phenology (i.e. the timing of seasonal events), distribution and population dynamics of both plants and animals (Parmesan 2006). For example, in this region, the phenology of plants, which is tightly linked to variation in temperature, has shown strong and coherent advances in the onset of the spring vegetative activities in the past 50 years (review in Parmesan 2006). This has caused a concomitant shift in the phenology of the invertebrate taxa which rely heavily on vegetation to complete their life cycles, such as caterpillars of Central European deciduous woodlands (Visser et al. 2004). However, it has been reckoned that species belonging to higher trophic levels, such as birds, which in turn depend on invertebrate supplies for a successful reproduction, may not have shifted their phenology accordingly. This would cause a mismatch between the reproductive phenology of birds and that of their main prey, which could potentially impact population dynamics (Both et al. 2001, 2006, Visser and Both 2005). Indeed, the peak reproductive period of insectivorous birds has evolved to match the peak in caterpillar supplies under naturally fluctuating climatic conditions, because individuals reproducing either too early or too late compared to peak food availability would suffer from a reduced reproductive success (Visser et al. 2004, Visser and Both 2005). When climatic conditions change very rapidly, as it is the case for anthropogenic climatic changes, whose speed could be unprecedented in the recent evolutionary history of the Earth, many species belonging to higher trophic levels may not be able to keep the pace of advancement of their prey, either by showing a weaker or stronger phenological response than their main prey. Such mismatch, which are apparently quite widespread within the animal kingdom, could result in extensive declines and perhaps lead to extinction of populations or species (Visser and Both 2005). For instance, among Dutch populations of the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), a long-distance Eurasian migrant, it has been shown that populations where the mismatch between population-specific mean laying date and caterpillar peak date was greatest suffered marked declines, up to 90% of the local breeding numbers, in 16 years. Therefore, populations showing the weakest phenological response to increasing local temperatures are likely to go extinct in a few years (Both et al. 2006). In this contribution, we summarize the findings of two recent papers where we have: 1) quantified the degree of intra- and interspecific variability in the long-term temporal trends of timing of spring migration of European migratory bird species, considered as an indicator of the phenological response to recent spring climate warming (Rubolini et al. 2007); and 2) tested the existence of a link between species-specific phenological changes in timing of spring migration and population trends at the continental level, under the assumption that species showing the weakest phenological response to climate change would suffer the greatest mismatch with their food sources, and could thus be characterized by declining numbers (Møller et al. 2008)

61 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea Assessing intra- and interspecific variability of the timing of spring migration Many studies have reported advances in the timing of spring migration of birds in the past decades (review in Lehikoinen et al. 2004). The picture emerging from these studies is greatly heterogeneous, some species or population showing an advancement of spring migration, whereas others not (Lehikoinen et al. 2004). Two main metrics are commonly adopted to quantify phenological changes in timing of spring migration, namely first arrival dates (FADs), reflecting the day of the year of the first sighting of a bird species in an area in a given year, and mean/median arrival dates (MEDs), which instead represent the day when the average bird arrive to an area or migrate through it in a given year. Each metric has its pros and cons (see detailed discussion in Lehikoinen et al. 2004), but it is clear that FADs are subject to a greater bias due to e.g. variation in observer effort and concomitant changes in population size compared to MEDs. For instance, it has been shown that FADs tend to be earlier in years when population size is larger (Miller-Rushing et al. 2008). On the other hand, there are far more data concerning FADs than MEDs, because data concerning the former are much easier and less labour-intensive to collect. In fact, MEDs are typically collected at bird observatories and require continuous monitoring of the number of migrating birds (by means of e.g. mist-netting or standard observation routines) through the entire migratory season, whereas FADs require simply the recording of the first individual of a species (Lehikoinen et al. 2004). We performed an extensive review of the literature concerning long-term changes in FADs and MEDs of European bird species in the period , by updating and expanding the dataset used in the review of Lehikoinen et al. (2004). In addition, we included data from several unpublished sources (see details in Rubolini et al. 2007). Estimates of change in FAD or MED through years were expressed as the slope of migration date on year (i.e. a negative slope implying an advance in timing of migration through the years whereas a positive slope indicates a delay in timing of migration), and the unit of measurement is days/year (i.e. a slope of for a species indicates an advance of 0.34 days per year, or 3.4 days per decade). Overall, we collected information on 672 estimates of changes in FAD derived from 184 species and 35 localities, and 289 estimates of changes in MED, from 113 species and 13 localities, mainly concentrated in Central-Northern Europe (Fig. 1). Similarly to previous studies, a striking pattern of advancement emerged for both FADs and MEDs, as could be clearly witnessed by simply looking at the distribution frequency of changes in FADs and MEDs (Fig. 2). Advances of FADs were stronger ( days/year, 95% c.l.: to , n = 672) than those of MEDs ( days/year, 95% c.l.: to , n = 289). Interestingly, despite considerable variation at different levels, we found that the variation in both FADs and MEDs between species was greater than that within species, implying the existence of a

62 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Fig. 1. European localities for which we obtained information on change in first arrival date (green dots), first and mean/median arrival date (orange dots) and mean/median arrival date (red dots) (modified from Rubolini et al. 2007). statistically significant degree of consistency in the phenological responses of a given species to climate change (see details in Rubolini et al. 2007). This means that if we sample two populations of the same species we are likely to observe more similar phenological responses than if we sampled two random populations from different species. This result also suggest that the long-term trends in spring migration dates under the current scenarios of global warming can be regarded as species-specific characteristics, irrespective of intraspecific geographical variation. This important conclusion represents the basis for the subsequent study we summarize here, where we have hypothesized that population trends of migratory birds could differ according to variation in the phenological response to climate change. In addition, we also attempted at identifying ecological and life-history attributes of species that are associated with a rapid phenological response to climatic changes

63 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea Fig. 2. Distribution frequency of changes in first (n = 672 time series) and mean/median arrival dates (n = 289 time series) among phenological time series of timing of spring migration of European bird species, Red bars (right): delayed arrival dates; green bars (left): advanced arrival dates (modified from Rubolini et al. 2007). Are population trends of migratory birds predicted by phenological changes in timing of spring migration? In recent years, several studied have investigated ecological and life-history correlates of population trends of bird species (e.g. Julliard et al. 2004, Jiguet et al. 2007). These studies have identified a number of factors which typically characterize declining species. For example, it has been found that ecological specialization is a typical trait of declining species, in that species with a high degree of specialization are probably less capable of withstanding extensive environmental and climatic changes (Julliard et al. 2004). Moreover, other studies have identified farmland breeding habitat, migration distance, body mass, northernmost distribution limit, number of broods, thermal maximum (i.e. temperature at the hot edge of the species-specific climate envelope), natal dispersal, and relative brain size as potential predictors of population trends of bird species (e.g. Fuller et al

64 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands 1995, Julliard et al. 2004, Shultz et al. 2005, Sanderson et al. 2006, Jiguet et al. 2007). However, no study had ever analysed whether the phenological response to climate change, as assessed by recent changes in timing of spring migration, relates to population trends. We therefore performed a comparative study by analysing whether the trends in timing of spring migration predicted population trends of European migratory bird species. The information concerning population trends were derived from the assessments performed by BirdLife International (2004) in their recent evaluation of the conservation status of European birds, Birds in Europe. This book provides qualitative estimates of population trends expressed on a seven-point scale, from large population decline (-3), moderate decline (-2), small decline (-1), no change (0), small increase (+1), moderate increase (+2), to large increase (+3). These assessments represent synthetic indicators of population trends across the whole of Europe west of Urals, and are available for two different time periods, and We collected information on population trends and species-specific changes in MED in the period for 100 species. The latter were derived from our previous study (Rubolini et al. 2007). We deliberately avoided using FADs as indicators of the phenological response to climate change, as they could partly reflect population trends (see above). Changes in MED during were strong predictors of population trends during the period , as could be observed in Fig. 3. Declining bird species in the period have not advanced, or even delayed, their timing of spring migration, while those with stable or increasing populations have advanced their migration considerably (Fig. 3). This conclusion was independent of several potentially confounding variables which could affect both the phenological response to climate change and population trends, such as migration distance, overall population size, and farmland breeding habitat (see details in Møller et al. 2008). On the other hand, changes in MED did not significantly predict population trends during In this period, the main ecological factors affecting population declines were breeding in farmland habitat (species breeding in farmland declining more than other species) and wintering in Africa (long-distance migrants wintering in Africa declining more than short-distance migrants wintering in Eurasia) (details in Møller et al. 2008). Finally, this dataset allowed us to investigate also which ecological and life history traits of species influence their ability to rapidly advance timing of spring migration under climate warming. While controlling for population trends, we found that long-distance migrants showed a weaker phenological response than short-distance migrants (Fig. 4). This finding is consistent with several previous studies, and may suggest that long-distance migrants show less plasticity in shifting their life cycles in response to climate change compared to short-distance migrants (but see Jonzén et al. 2006). The effects of other variables were less clear (details in Møller et al. 2008). All these analyses were robust to phylogenetic relatedness among species, i.e. the results were not artifacts of shared phylogenetic history (see details in Møller et al. 2008)

65 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea Population trend, Change in MED (days/year) Fig. 3. The change in mean/median spring migration date (MED) during predicts population trends of European bird species during [F 1, 96 = 27.19, P < 0.001, estimate: (0.54 s.e.)] (modified from Møller et. al. 2008). Negative values of population trends denote population declines, positive values increases. Change in MED (days/year) Migration distance Fig. 4. Migration distance predicts change in mean/median spring migration date (MED) during [F 1, 92 = 27.19, P = 0.007, estimate: 0.11 (0.04 s.e.)]. Migration distance is expressed as the log(x+1)-transformed values of the mean of the northernmost and southernmost breeding latitudes minus the mean of the northernmost and southernmost wintering latitudes (see Møller et. al. 2008). In conclusion, our studies show for the first time that failure to adjust timing of spring migration to global warming could impact population dynamics of migratory bird species. If migratory bird species do not advance their timing of spring migration, they may arrive later relative to the phenologically optimal timing of reproduction. Mistiming of reproduction could reduce reproductive success (Both et al. 2006), and the reduction in success should increase with increasing degree of mistiming. Therefore, under current climate change scenarios, species with a threatened population status and declining breeding populations could suffer additional losses, which may eventually

66 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands increase their risk of extinction. Our study may also allow us to identify a suite of species that is likely to become particularly threatened during the next decades. References BirdLife International (2004) Birds in Europe: population estimates, trends and conservation status. BirdLife International, Cambridge. Both C, Visser ME (2001) Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird. Nature 411: Both C, Bouwhuis S, Lessells CM, Visser ME (2006) Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature 441: Fuller RJ, Gregory RD, Gibbons DW, Marchant JH, Wilson JD, Baillie SR, Carter N (1995) Population declines and range contractions among lowland farmland birds in Britain. Conserv. Biol. 9: Jonzén N, Lindén A, Ergon T, Knudsen E, Vik JO, Rubolini D, Piacentini D, Brinch C, Spina F, Karlsson L, Stervander M, Andersson A, Waldenström J, Lehikoinen A, Edvardsen E, Solvang R, Stenseth NC (2006) Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds. Science 312: Julliard R, Jiguet F, Couvet D (2004) Common birds facing global changes: what makes a species at risk? Glob. Change Biol. 10: IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Jiguet F, Gadot AS, Julliard R, Newson SE, Couvet D (2007) Climate envelope, life history traits and the resilience of birds facing global change. Glob. Change Biol. 13: Lehikoinen E, Sparks TH, Zalakevicius M (2004) Arrival and departure dates. Adv. Ecol. Res. 35: Miller-Rushing AJ, Lloyd-Evans TL, Primack RB, Satzinger P (2008) Bird migration times, climate change, and changing population sizes. Glob. Change Biol. 14: Møller AP, Rubolini D, Lehikoinen E (2008) Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining. P roc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, DOI: /pnas Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary response to recent climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37: Rubolini D, Møller AP, Rainio K, Lehikoinen E (2007) Intraspecific consistency and geographic

67 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea variability in temporal trends of spring migration phenology among European bird species. Clim. Res. 35: Sanderson FJ, Donald PF, Pain DJ, Burfield IJ, van Bommel FPJ (2006) Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds. Biol. Conserv. 131: Shultz S, Bradbury RB, Evans KL, Gregory RD, Blackburn TM (2005) Brain size and resource specialization predict long-term population trends in British birds. P roc. R. Soc. Lond. B 272: Visser ME, Both C (2005) Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick. P roc. R. Soc. Lond. B 272: Visser ME, Both C, Lambrechts MM (2004) Global climate change leads to mistimed avian reproduction. Adv. Ecol. Res. 35:

68 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Dr. Diego Rubolini 직책 및 연락처 P osition and Contact I nformation: 밀라노 대학교 생물학과 연구원 Researcher Dipartimento di Biologia, Università degli Studi di Milano Via Celoria 26, I Milano, Italy XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Tel: 학력 E ducation: : PhD in Experimental Ecology and Geobotany, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Italy : Laurea (MSc) in Natural Sciences, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Italy. 주요 경력 및 관심 분야 E xperience Summary & Ornithological I nterests: 1976년생. 지난 2007년 이탈리아 파비아 대학에서 박사학위를 취득하였으며, 이후 밀라노 대 학에서 생태학 연구원으로 근무하며 Nicola Saino 교수가 이끄는 연구팀과 공동 연구를 실시하 고 있다. 장거리 이동 철새의 진화 및 생태, 알의 특징(특히 알의 호르몬)으로 표현되는 모성 효과에서부터 농경지에 서식하는 조류의 생태와 보전에 이르기까지, 조류학과 관련된 다양한 분야에 관심을 가지고 있다. 최근에는 기후 변화가 철새의 계절적인 변화에 미치는 영향에 대 한 연구에 참여하고 있다. 최고 수준의 조류학 및 생태학 학술지의 심사위원인 동시에, 국제학 술지 Hormones and Behaviour의 편집위원으로 활동 중이다. 2008년까지 저자 및 공저자로서 50여 편 이상의 국제적인 학술논문을 발표하였다. Born in 1976, Diego Rubolini obtained his P hd in 2007 at the University of P avia, and since the same year he holds a permanent position as a researcher in ecology at the University of Milano, where he currently collaborates with the research group lead by P rof. Nicola Saino. He has wide-ranging ornithological interests, spanning from the ecology and evolution of long-distance migration to the study of maternal effects mediated by egg characteristics (particularly egg hormones), and the ecology and conservation of birds in farmland habitats. He has recently been involved in studies concerning the effects of climate change on the phenology of migratory birds

69 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea He serves as a reviewer for the top ornithological and ecological journals, and he is member of the editorial board of the journal Hormones and Behaviour. As of 2008, he has been author and co-author of more than 50 papers in leading scientific journals. 주요 저서 및 논문 Selected P ublications: Rubolini D., A. Gardiazabal Pastor, A. Pilastro, F. Spina Ecological barriers shaping fuel stores in barn swallows Hirundo rustica following the Central and Western Mediterranean flyways. Journal of Avian Biology 33: Galeotti P., D. Rubolini, P. O. Dunn, M. Fasola Colour polymorphism in birds: causes and functions. Journal of Evolutionary Biology 16: Saino N., T. Szép, M. Romano, D. Rubolini, F. Spina, A. P. Møller Ecological conditions during winter predict arrival date at the breeding quarters in a trans-saharan migratory bird. Ecology Letters 7: Rubolini D., F. Spina, N. Saino Correlates of timing of spring migration in birds: a comparative study of trans-saharan migrants. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 85: Rubolini D., M. Romano, G. Boncoraglio, R. P. Ferrari, R. Martinelli, P. Galeotti, M. Fasola, N. Saino Effects of elevated egg corticosterone levels on behavior, growth and immunity of yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis) chicks. Hormones and Behavior 47: Rubolini D., M. Romano, R. Martinelli, B. Leoni, N. Saino Effects of prenatal yolk androgens on armaments and ornaments of the ring-necked pheasant. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology 59: Rubolini D., R. Martinelli, N. von Engelhardt, M. Romano, T. G. G. Groothuis, M. Fasola, N. Saino Consequences of prenatal androgen exposure on the reproductive performance of female pheasants (P hasianus colchicus). Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 274: Jonzén N., A. Lindén, T. Ergon, E. Knudsen, J. O. Vik, D. Rubolini, D. Piacentini, C. Brinch, F. Spina, L. Karlsson, M. Stervander, A. Andersson, J. Waldenström, A. Lehikoinen, E. Edvardsen, R. Solvang, N. C. Stenseth Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds. Science 312: Møller A. P., D. Rubolini, E. Lehikoinen Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, in press

70 SESSION II Monitoring Birds passing through Asian Region

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72 Proceeding of the 2nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands 27 October 2008, Changwon, Korea Monitoring and Banding Activities in Japan 일본의 철새 모니터링 및 가락지 부착 활동 Kiyoaki Ozaki Bird Migration Research Center, Yamashina Institute for Ornithology, Japan ( XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX) Abstract The Japanese bird banding scheme was started in 1924 by the Agriculture and Commerce Ministry, and now it is funded by Ministry of the Environment. The Yamashina Institute for Ornithology (YIO) is organizing banding scheme as a center since Between 1964 and 1969, the MAPS (Migratory Animal Pathological Survey) of the United States Army conducted banding activities among Southeast Asian countries. When the Environment Agency started the banding research in 1972, the scale of research expanded, and banding stations were established throughout the country. By 1987, 10 primary banding stations and 50 secondary stations have been established. At the most of primary banding stations, banding activities are continuing with similar method and periods every year. These data are useful to monitor population trends of migratory birds. It is remarkable that the numbers of migratory passerines are declining since 1990' at some banding stations. Especially the numbers of Rustic Bunting (Emberiza rustica) is declining rapidly at the Fukushimagata and Otayama stations. The annual average number of newly banded birds of recent ten years is about 164,000. The grand total of 47 years since 1961 is 4.39 million. The number of species banded annually is about 270, and the grand total reached to 465, which is more than 85% of Japanese list until About 28,000 recovery data of 224 species were obtained until 2007, including more than 3,400 international recoveries. Numbers of licensed banders are now about 450. 요 약

73 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea 일본의 가락지 부착조사 체계는 1924년 일본 농상무성(Agriculture and Commerce Ministry)에 의 해 시작되었으며, 현재는 환경성(Ministry of the Environment)의 지원을 받고 있다. 야마시나조류연구 소는 1961년부터 중심 기구로서 표식조사 체계를 조직하고 있다. 1964년부터 1969년까지 미 육군은 이동성동물의 병리학적 조사로서 동남아시아 국가에서 가락지 부착활동을 수행했다. 1972년 환경청 (Environment Agency)이 가락지 조사를 시작하면서, 연구의 규모가 확장되고 전국적인 밴딩 스테이 션이 설립되었다. 1987년까지 10곳의 주요 밴딩 스테이션과 50개의 보조 스테이션이 조직되었다. 대 부분의 주요 밴딩 스테이션에서는 매년 같은 시기에 유사한 방법으로 가락지 부착 활동이 지속되고 있다. 이런 자료는 철새의 개체군 변동 추세를 모니터링 하는데 유용하게 활용되고 있다. 일부 밴딩 스테이션에서 1990년대 이후 이동성 참새목 조류의 수가 급격히 감소하고 있다는 점은 주목할 만하 다. 특히 쑥새(Rustic Bunting, Emberiza rustica)는 후쿠시마가타와 오타야마 스테이션에서 급격하게 감소하였다. 최근 10년간 새롭게 표식되는 조류의 수는 연 평균 164,000여 개체에 이르며, 1961년 이후 47년간 표식된 전체 조류는 약 4,390,000마리이다. 연간 표식되는 조류는 약 270여종이며, 표 식된 전체 종수는 2007년까지 일본에 기록된 전체 조류의 85% 이상에 해당하는 465종에 이른다. 2007년까지 224종에 대해 약 28,000회 정도의 회수 기록이 확인되었으며, 이 중 국외 회수 기록은 3,400회 이상에 해당한다. 현재 가락지 부착 자격증을 가진 표식 조사원의 수는 약 450여명이다. Historical development of the banding research in Japan The Japanese bird banding scheme is described in three periods, the period of the Agriculture and Commerce Ministry before the War ( ), the period of the Forestry Agency and MAPS ( ), and the period of the Environment Agency (from 1972 to present, the name was changed to Ministry of the Environment since 2000). The Yamashina Institute for Ornithology is organizing the research as a center since When the Environment Agency started the banding research in 1972, the scale of research expanded, and banding stations were established throughout the country. By 1987, 10 primary banding stations and 50 secondary stations have been established out of numerous research sites. The annual number of banded birds rose from 27,000 in 1972 up to 189,000 in And the average number of newly banded birds of recent ten years is about 164,000. The grand total of 47 years since 1961 is 4.39 millions. The numbers of species banded annually is about 270, and the grand total reached to 465, which is more than 85% of Japanese list until Banding seminars, initiated in 1979, helped to expand the scale of the program by training many new banders. The numbers of licensed banders are now about 450. Migratory Birds Agreements between Japan and certain countries were also important factors in the expansion of banding research

74 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Monitoring migratory and breeding birds by banding Monitoring surveys of birds by banding method can be divided into three by season. The first one is during breeding seasons, such as the Constant Effort Site Project (CES) among European countries and the Monitoring Avian Productive and Survivorship (MAPS) in USA. In Japan, we have not developed yet such project, although we have continued similar constant banding effort at Yamanakako station since 1973 for 35 years. The second one is survey during migration season. At the most of primary banding stations, banding activities are continuing with similar method and periods every year during main fall migration season. The stations which have more than 30 years survey are Hamatonbetsu and Furenko in Hokkaido, Fukushimagata, Fuchu and Otayama in Honshu, and several other stations. During spring migration periods at many sites including islands are caring short term banding surveys. The islands which have long year surveys are Teuri, Yakishiri, in Hokkaido, Tobishima, Awashima, Hegura and Mishima in Honshu. The third one is survey during wintering season. We have for that purpose Izumi in Kyushu and Okinawa stations. These stations have about 20 years history. Fig. 1. Banding stations (upper) and banding sites (under) in Japan Yamanakako Station Data from 26 years ( ) of summer (June-August) banding records from Yamanako Station, in Yamanashi Prefecture, were analyzed. The research was designed to determine if summer forest passerines were declining. From 1973 through 1988, summer bandings of summer breeders exceeded that of resident birds. From 1989 onwards, however, resident bandings became more numerous, indicating that the number of summer breeders is declining. Summer breeder bandings decreased

75 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea sharply after 1992, especially for four species; Siberian Thrush, Gray Thrush, Brown Thrush and Black Paradise Flycatcher. Census research was also implemented in July and August of 1998, along a 3 km census course adjacent to the banding station. Data from this census will be integrated with the banding results to provide a better understanding of changes in the summer breeding populations. 100% 80% Percentage of Summer Migrants and Residents 個 体 数 ( 留 鳥 ) 個 体 数 ( 夏 鳥 ) Percent age 60% 40% 20% 0% Year Fig. 2. Percentage of summer migrants (red) and residents (green) at Yamanakako Station, near Mt Fuji Numbers Average Daily Number of Summer Migrant and Resident 個 体 数 ( 夏 鳥 ) 個 体 数 ( 留 鳥 ) 種 類 数 ( 夏 鳥 ) 種 類 数 ( 留 鳥 ) Year Species Fig. 3. Average daily number of summer migrants (red) and residents (green) at Yamanakako Station

76 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Fukushimagata Station Fukushimagata is one of the most active banding station since 1972, and have been banded about 230,000 individuals. Here banding records for 26 year period from 1978 to 2004 were analyzed. During 1980's, there were more than 8,000 birds were banded annually (except 1982 when the autumn activity was lacked because of the rebuilding of station). It is remarkable that the numbers are declining since 1990' even though the banding season and effort are almost constant. Especially the numbers of Rustic Bunting (Emberiza rustica) is declining rapidly at the Fukushimagata station. And similar pattern are found at the Otayama stations. 羽 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 新 放 鳥 数 種 数 種 , , Fig. 4. Newly banded numbers and species of birds at Fukushimagata Station Encouraging banding activities in Asian countries by YIO From 1964, the Japanese banding research participated in the MAPS (Migratory Animal Pathological Survey) project of the US Armed Forces Japan. During the seven years migratory bird banding operation throughout Southeast Asia, Yamashina Institute for Ornithology conducted the field research in Japan. MAPS involved 14 countries and a total of 1,165,288 birds of 1,218 species were banded, and over 7,000 recoveries of 255 species were obtained. Apart from the MAPS project in the 1960 s, banding research has not been so active in most regions of Asia except Japan. China

77 The 2 nd International Symposium on Migratory Birds 27 Oct 2008, Changwon, Korea Numbers of banded Emberiza species 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ot hers E.scheniclus E.spodocephala E.rust ica Fig. 5. Numbers of banded birds of Emberiza species at Fukushimagata Station started national banding research in 1986, when the China-Japan Migratory Birds Agreement was concluded. Yamashina Institute for Ornithology has introduced and transferred the banding technology to Southeast Asian countries and Far-east Russia through ODA budgets of Environment Agency and the Ministry of Education and also private financial support. And also we invited researchers to Japan for banding training from Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia (Sabah), China and Mongolia. As a result, an active investigation has started in China, Thailand and Malaysia (Sabah). However, it has not arrived in other countries so that the banding may begin originally by various reasons. Through those banding activities outside of Japan, we could get several interesting recoveries, which are new evidences of migration between Japan. Newly obtained recoveries are several Reed Buntings from Kamchatka, House Swallows from Vietnam, Malaysia (Sabah) and Indonesia, and a lot of Roseate Terns S. dougallii from Australia. It is very important to cooperate internationally to get effective data of migratory bird throughout Asian countries

78 Monitoring Climate Changes: Migratory Birds and Wetlands in Stopover Islands Fig. 6. Banding research and training sites by YIO