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* FA. FA FA. (2013) FA. (separating equilibrium),. (pooling equilibrium)..,. (Free agency, FA). (Reserve clause) : 2015 9 16, : 2015 11 13, : 2015 12 7 *. ** Department of Economics, University of Texas (c.yang@utexas.edu) *** () (ghwang@sogang.ac.kr)

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號.,. FA. FA. FA. FA. 1) FA. FA. FA,. FA FA. 2) FA. (asymmetric information) (signaling model) FA. FA FA.. FA, 1) FA 200% 1, 300%. FA (2013) 2. 2) Don Tylicki 50. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/554808-mlb-free-agency-50-biggest-free-agent-busts-of-all-time

. FA FA. Scully(1974) FA. FA, FA (Blass(1992); Zimbalist(1992); Vrooman(1996); Kahn(1993); (2013) ). FA (moral hazard). FA. FA. Stiroh(2007), Krautmann and Solow(2009), Scoggins(1993). Berri and Krautmann(2006), Krautmann(1990), Maxcy(1997), Maxcy et al.(2002).. Krautmann and Donley(2009). FA, FA, 3) FA. Cassing and Douglas(1980) FA, FA (winner's curse). Cassing and Douglas(1980) FA,. (2013) 5 2 FA 3) Lehn(1984) FA FA FA.

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號 FA FA. FA 1., FA, FA. (2013). (2013) FA. 1 FA, FA., 1 2. 1 2 FA (separating equilibrium),. 1, 2 FA (pooling equilibrium)..,... Ⅱ (2013) 5 2, Ⅲ. Ⅳ,. (2013). 5 2.

. 2. 1.. (H ), (L ) ( ). 1. 1 1H 1L.. 1 1 1.. 1. 0. 1 FA. 1., 1.. 2 FA. 2 FA. FA. FA 1 1. -(2013) FA, FA (take-it-or-leave-it)., 1., 1. 4) FA 3. 3 FA. FA. FA 0. FA,. FA FA 4) 1 (Nash Bargaining solution), 1.

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號. 0,,. 2. 4 1 2. 5 FA 1 2. 2 2, 1 1. FA 2,., FA 2 2. FA,.,.. 5),, 1, 2. 1 2., 1..,.. : >. (backward induction) Kreps and 5).

Wilson(1982). 2 (posterior probability). 2 H. 1 (prior). 2. 5. 4 1. 4 5 1. 4 5. 3 2 4 1 H, L 2, 1. 3 2 1.. 1 ( ). ( ) 1H 1L 1. > 1. 1. 1. 1H:,.

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號 1L:,.. 1 1. 1 1. 2. H,,. 4 5 3. 2,. 4 1H 2. 2. 4 1H H. H L. 2, 1L L. 2 FA. FA ( ). H FA, 3 2. H FA., H FA,

FA. L FA FA, FA. 1 1. L. 1L FA. FA.. FA 1L.. 1L, FA 1L. 6) 1L. 1L 1H.. 1L 1H 3 2 1L. 2 L FA., FA FA. 1L 6) (2013) ( ) i FA. i FA. FA.

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號., 1L. 1H 1L. 2 H FA, FA. FA, FA. 1L 1H.

1H 1L 3 2, 1H. 2 H FA. ( ) FA. 1H..,.,. 1L 1H 1H 1L.. 1 1H 1L. 2 2. 2 FA 3 ( ). 3. FA 4

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號 1. 1L. 1. 2 ( ).. 1. 1) (0, 1), 2 1L. 2) 2 FA, 1. : 1) 1L. 2 L. 2.., 2 1H, 1L. 2) 1H 1L 2 2. 1..

. 1H. 1. 2 2 1. Q.E.D. 2 FA. FA ( ). 3. 2. H FA, L FA. : H FA, L FA Bayes. 3 2 FA. H FA. L FA H 2 FA... Q.E.D. 3. H FA, L FA. : H FA, L FA Bayes. 3 2 FA. H FA

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號,,.. 4. H, L FA. : FA Bayes. FA 2, 3., FA. Q.E.D. 5. 1) FA. 2) FA. : Bayes. 1) 1 3 2. FA,.

. 2) 1 3 2,. 1).. FA. 0. Q.E.D. 1 1. 3 5. 6. H FA, L FA. : H FA, L FA, FA 3. 1. 1L :, 1H : 1.. 1L 3 2 FA. 4 1L

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號 L. 2 L FA FA. 1L FA 1L. L FA 1L. 1L. 1L. 1H. 1H. 1H 1, 3 2 4 1H H. 2 H FA. 1H 1H. 1H 1H. L FA. Q.E.D. 7. FA.

: FA 4. 1. 1L :, 1H :..., 1. FA. Q.E.D. 8. FA. : FA Bayes. 5 FA. Q.E.D.. 5 2 FA FA. 1,. 1L :, 1H :

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號.. 1H 1L.. 2. 1L. 3 2. 4 1L L. 2 L FA, 1L. L FA 1L. 1L. 1L. 1H. 3 2. 4 1H H. 2 H FA

. H FA 1H. 1H. 1H.. 1H..... 1H. 1H 1L 1. H L FA, 2 H L 2.. 2., H L FA.. 1 1

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號. 1 H, L. H, L.. 1 L : 1 H : 1. 2 FA FA. FA 1 1 1., FA H H. 1 L H FA. FA 1. FA 2. L : H :

L 2. FA.. FA,. FA. FA..... FA FA,. FA,... 1, 2 FA.

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號.,,.. FA., FA. FA. FA... 24 1 (2013. 3): 16-36... 18 3 (2013. 9): 1-15. Blass, A. Does the Baseball Labor Market Contradict the Human Capital Model of Investment? The Review of Economics and Statistics 74 (2) (May 1992): 261-268. Berri, D. and A. Krautmann. Shirking on the Court: Testing for the incentive effects of guaranteed pay. Economic Inquiry 44 (3) (July 2006): 536-546. Cassing, J. and R. Douglas. Implications of the Auction Mechanism in Baseball's Free Agent Draft. Southern Economic Journal 47 (1) (July 1980)): 110-121. Kahn, L. Free Agency, Long-Term Contracts and Compensation in Major League Baseball: Estimates from Panel Data. The Review of

Economics and Statistics 75 (1) (February 1993): 157-164. Krautmann, A. Shirking or Stochastic Productivity in Major League Baseball? Southern Economic Journal 56 (4) (April 1990): 961-968. Krautmann, A. and T. Donley. Shirking in Major League Baseball Revisited. Journal of Sports Economics 10 (3) (June 2009): 292-304. Krautmann, A. and J. Solow. The Dynamics of Performance Over the Duration of Major League Baseball Long-Term Contracts. Journal of Sports Economics 10 (1) (February 2009): 6-22. Kreps, D. and R. Wilson. Sequential Equilibria. Econometrica 50 (4) (July 1982): 863-894. Lehn, K. Information Asymmetries in Baseball s Free Agent Market. Economic Inquiry 22 (1) (January 1984): 37-44. Maxcy, J. Do Long-term Contracts Influence Performance in Major League Baseball? In W. Hendricks (Ed.), Advances in the Economics of Sports (1997): 157-176. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. Maxcy, J., A. Krautmann and R. Fort, The Effectiveness of Incentive Mechanisms in Major League Baseball. Journal of Sports Economics 3 (3) (August 2002): 246-255. Scoggins, J. Shirking or Stochastic Productivity in Major League Baseball Comment. Southern Economic Journal 60 (1) (July 1993): 239-240. Scully, G., Pay and Performance in Major League Baseball. The American Economic Review 64 (6) (December 1974): 915-930. Stiroh, K. Playing for Keeps: Pay and Performance in the NBA. Economic Inquiry 45 (1) (January 2007): 145-161. Vrooman, J. The Baseball Players' Labor Market Reconsidered. Southern Economic Journal 63 (2) (October 1996): 339-360.

勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號 Zimbalist, A. Salaries and Performance: Beyond the Scully Mode. In P. Sommers(ed.), Diamonds are Forever: The Business of Baseball (1992), Washington: Brookings.

abstract Free Agent(FA) system allows a professional player to make a salary contract with the other clubs as well as the incumbent one after the player has played in one club for a fixed periods. Sometimes compared with the salary FA players performs very poorly, which leads to a debate about FA busts. We extend the model of Yang and Wang(2013) to the one with incomplete information about the productivity of the player to explain the possibility of FA busts. FA busts do not arise in the separating equilibrium where the private information is fully revealed. The FA busts do occur in the pooling equilibrium We show that the separating equilibrium does not exist. We also show that under some conditions, in particular with strong compensation rule, the unique pooling equilibrium exists. Keywords: Compensation Rule, FA busts, FA system, Incomplete information, Signalling model