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1 The development of a valuation model to determine the true market value of professional baseball players Sung-Bae Roger Park*, Tae-Geun Kwon & Jong-Hwan Jeon Hanyang University [Purpose] [Methods] [Results] [Conclusions] Key words:

4 Table 1. KBO League At Bats requirement and subjects by season (1997 ~ 2016) Season Game At Bats Subjects Total 793

5 Table 2. Player demographics and contract details Age Year Salary (Unit: 10,000 won) FA Max Min Average Median SD Skewness Kurtosis N Table 3. Yearly Consumer Inflation Rate (1997 ~ 2016) Year Inflation Present Inflation Present Year rate Value rate Value

6 Table 4. Hitter Statistics Statistic Max. Min. Average Median SD Skewness Kurtosis N AVG OBP SLG G PA AB R H B B B HR TB RBI SB CS BB HBP IBB SO GDP SH SF Table 5. Sabermertics statistics Statistic Max. Min. Average Median SD Skewness Kurtosis N OPS GPA SECA TA RC RC/ XR ISO PSN woba OW% BABIP

8 Table 6. Correlation between Sabermetrics Statistics OPS GPA SECA TA RC RC/27 XR ISO PSN woba %OW BABIP OPS 1.99 **.84 **.97 *.91 *.97 **.90 **.86 **.29 **.94 **.91 **.502 ** GPA 1.83 *.97 *.91 *.98 **.90 **.81 **.28 **.96 **.92 **.55 ** SECA 1.90 *.78 *.83 **.78 **.87 **.37 **.89 **.76 **.18 ** TA 1.92 *.98 **.91 **.80 **.36 **.98 **.91 **.51 ** RC 1.93 **.99 **.74 **.36 **.88 **.84 **.52 ** RC/ **.78 **.27 **.95 **.91 **.56 ** XR 1.74 **.38 **.88 **.83 **.49 ** ISO 1.30 **.75 **.70 **.10 ** PSN 1.38 **.27 **.14 ** woba 1.90 **.49 ** %OW 1.52 ** BABIP 1 (Equation #1)

9 Fig 1. Scree Plot

10 Table 7. Principal component analysis component matrix and component score coefficient matrix Component matrix Component score coefficient matrix Component Component OPS OPS GPA GPA SECA SECA TA TA RC RC RC/ RC/ XR XR ISO ISO PSN PSN woba woba %OW %OW BABIP BABIP Table 8. model coefficients and statistical results Variable B β t (constant) *** Year *** FA *** Prin *** Prin * R F ***

11 Fig 2. PHI and Player Salary Graph Table 9. POS rank in PHI Rank POS_PHI 1 Yang, Jun-Hyuk (1999) Park, Jae-Hong (1997).73 3 Jang, Seong-Ho (2001).68 4 Kim, Tae-gyun (2003).67 5 Choi, Ik-Seong (1997).64 6 Shin, Dong-Joo (1997).61 7 Lee, Seung-Yeop (1999).54 8 Ma, Hae-Young (1999).54 9 Lee, Byung-Gyu (1999) Koo, Ja-Wook (2015) Jang, Seong-Ho (1999) Kim, Jae-Hwan (2016) Shim, Jeong-Soo (1999) Kim, Hyun-Soo (2008) Kim, Ki-Tae (1997).41 Fig 3. CHI and Player Salary Graph Table 10. POS rank in CHI Rank POS_CHI 1 Kim, Soo-Yeon (2001) Koo, Ja-Wook (2015).68 3 Park, Min-Woo (2014).65 4 Lee, Jong-Wook (2006).62 5 Lee, Byung-Kyu (2011).59 6 Lee, Dae-Hyung (2007).58 7 Kim, Jong-Ho (2013).57 8 Jang, Won-Jin (1999).56 9 Park, Yng-Taek (2002) Lee, Hyun-Gon (2007) Jeong, Bo-Myung (2007) Kim, Won-Seop (2008) Jeong, Su-Seong (2005) Shin, Jong-Gil (2013) Kim, Hyun-Soo (2008).43

12 Bae, J. Y., Lee, J., M., & Lee, J. Y. (2012). Predicting Korea Pro-Baseball Rankings by Principal Component Regression Analysis, Communications of the Korean Statistical Society, 19(3), Bank of Korea. (1 January, 2018). Retrived from Brooks, C. (2002). Introductory Econometrics for Finance. Cambridge University Press.

13 Choi, K. H. (2009). The introduction of Sabermetrics and Record Analysis in Korea, Journal of Social Science, 25(1), Depken, C. A., & Wilson, D. P. (2004). Labor markets in the classroom : Marginal product in Major League Baseball, Journal of Economics and Finance Education, 3, Fields, B. (2001). Estimating the value of Major League Baseball players. Unpublished master s thesis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, USA. Jolliffe, I. T. (1986). Principal component analysis and factor analysis. In Principal component analysis (pp ), New York: Springer. KBO Press Release. (2018). Announcement of registration of KBO league players in 2018, February 19, KBO, Kim, E. S. (2001). The Relation of Game Performance and Annual Salary for Korean Professional Baseball Players, Journal of Korean Sociology of Sport, 14(1), Kim, S. H. (2007). The current programs and improvement measures on free agent in Korea professional baseball league. Unpublished master s thesis, Dong-Eui University, Busan. Krautmann, A. C. (1999). What s wrong with Scully estimates of a player s marginal revenue product, Economic Inquiry, 37(2), Lee, M. G. (2001). Relationship between Performance Ability of Professional Baseball Batters and Annual Salary based on Sabermetrics. Unpublished master s thesis, Kookmin University, Seoul. Lee, J. T. (2014). Measurements for hitting ability in the Korean pro-baseball, Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 25(2), Lee, J. Y. (2001). The Relationship between Annual Salary and Ability of Korean Professional Baseball Batters. Journal of Korean Sociology of Sport, 16, Lee, J. Y., & Kim, H. G. (2016). Suggestion of batter ability index in Korea baseball - focusing on the sabermetrics statistics WAR, Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 29(7), Myung, W. S., Won, Y. S., & Lee, M. G. (2016). The Study on the Determinants of Korean Professional Baseball Players Salaries Using Decision Tree Analysis. Journal of Sport and Leisure Studies, 65, Oh, T. Y., Lee, & Y. H., (2013). Measurement of Monopsony Exploitation in Salary Determination; Case of Major League Baseball. Korean Journal of Sport Management, 18(3), Oh, T. Y., Lee, & Y. H., (2016). Value Evaluation Model for Korean Professional Baseball Players. Korean Labor economic Association, 39(2), Park, S. R. (2015). Suggestion for evaluation of market value of professional baseball players. Sports Industry Issue Paper. Seoul: Korea Institute of Sports Science. Park, S. R. (2017). Sports Business Insight (1st ed.). Seoul: People and Thought. Park, S. R., Lee, W. Y., & Jeon, H. K. (2016). Analysis of Critical Factors affecting Market Value of Baseball Players (Hitters) in Korea. Journal of Sport and Leisure Studies, 66, Park. S. H. (2008). Performance Factors Affecting the High Annual Salary of Korean Professional Baseball Batters. Korean Journal of Sports Science, 17(2), Savin, E., & White, K. (1997). The Durbin-Watson Test for Seria Correlation with Extreme Sample Sizes or Many Regression. Econometrics, 45(8), Scully, G. W. (1974). Pay and performance in major league baseball, The American Economic Review, 64(6), Seung, H. B., & Kang, K. H. (2012). A study on relationship between the performance of professional baseball players and annual salary. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 23(2), Sommers, P. M., & Quinton, N. (1982). Pay and performance in major league baseball: Thecase of the first family of free agents. Journal of Human Resources, 17(3), Statistics Korea, (2018, January 1). Retrieved from Sung, H. H. (2014), Stove League final 'Money Wars' negotiations on December 7, Hankook News from 9b45cd ed. Sung, W. H. (1998). Applied Multivariate Analysis, Seoul: Tamjin. Tango, T. M., Lichtman, M. G., & Dolphin, A. E. (2007). The book: Playing the percentages in baseball. Potomac Books, Inc.. Yang, D. E., Cho, E. H., Bae, S. W., & Jung. S. W. (2015). Analysis of Professional Korean Baseball Batter s Performances Factors. Journal of Sport and Leisure Studies, 60,

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???춍??숏 Suseong gu Council Daegu Metropolitan City www.suseongcouncil.daegu.kr Contents SUSEONG GU COUNCIL DAEGU METROPOLITAN CITY 10 www.suseongcouncil.daegu.kr 11 SUSEONG GU COUNCIL DAEGU METROPOLITAN CITY