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1 21 5

2 LG

3 < > / 5 5 Chen, Roll, Ross,, (-) (+) (-), (-) (+) / (-), (+) J, /, (-) IMF,

4 /,,, 5bp 5bp ( )/ ( ) ( :p) / % p %p %p % bp %p bp % : 6

5 < > < > 1 II IV 26 < 1> 28 < 2> 31 < >36

6 < > <1> 5 <2> ADF 29 <3> 3 < II- 1 > 4 < III-1> 1% 6 < III-2> 1% 8 < III-3> < III-4> < III-5> < III-6> < III-7> < III-8> < III-9> 1 21 < III-1> < III-11> / < III-12>

7 1 I 6p FRB 5, 5p % 3 44% 2 65% 4 78% VAR 5

8 II 1 Chen, Roll and Ross(1986) 1 Chen, Roll and Ross E( c) P = k, P;, E(C);, K; (1),,, Chen, Roll and Ross,,,, 1 Chen, Nai-Fu, Richard Roll and Stephen A Ross, "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of 2 Business, 1986, Vol 59, No 3, pp 38343

9 Chen, Roll and Ross,, Chen, Roll and Ross IMF ( ), : (,, ), : (,, ),,, : /, /,, (,, S&P5 ), (Federal Fund Rate), (WTI) 3

10 4 2 VAR,, (VAR) < II-1> < II-1>,

11 ,,, /, / / / <1> <1> 1: Chen, Roll, Ross 2: 3: 4: / / / / 5: 5

12 III 1,,, 3 < III-1> 2 1 < III-1> 1% (, p) ( ) : 1 VAR 2 VAR :1~21: Chen, Roll, Ross(1986), Cultler, Poterba, Summers(1989),MukerJe,Naka(1995),, (1999) 3, (21), (2) 6

13 < III-1> 1% 1 48p, 2 88p, 6 54p,, (BSI), 1% 1 2p, 3 33p, 12 48p 1 14p, 6 7p, 12 4p IMF VAR IMF 4,, Chen, Roll and Ross(1986) IMF 1% 127p, 3 24p, 6 22p 7

14 (-) (2) (+) 6 < III-2> < III-2> 1% (, p) 2 ( ) : 1 VAR 2 VAR 4 3: 1992:1~21: < III-2> 1%, 2165p 6 288p p, 5 Chen, Roll, Ross(1986), Cultler, Poterba, Summers(1989),MukerJe,Naka(1995) 6 (2) 8

15 7 3 3 (Credit Spread) < III-3> < III-3> 1%p (, p) 1-2 ( ) : 1 VAR 2 VAR :1~21: < III-3> 1%p 1 77p, 3 88p 7 14p p 7 (21) 9

16 , 8 1~3, 2~3,,,, (+) (Term Spread) 15 < 8 (21) 1

17 III-4> < III-4> 1%p (, p) ( ) : 1 VAR 2 VAR :1~21: < III-4> 1%p, 2 2p, 38p, 6 7p (+), 11

18 ,,,, 9,,,, (: (2)) (-) 1 (M1), (M2), (M3) 9 Cultler, Poterba, Summers(1989), MukerJe,Naka(1995),, (1999),, (21) 1, (1999),, (21) 12

19 < III- 5> < III-5> (M2)1% (, p) ( ) : 1 VAR 2 VAR Akaike :1~21: < III-5> (M2) 1%, 113p, 3 147p p, (M2) (M1) (M3) (M3)1%, 198p, 3 15p 6 2p, p (M1)1% 1 16p, 3 83p 6 12p, 12 13p 13

20 , IMF VAR IMF(-) IMF (+) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ), ( ) ( ) (+), 3 < III-6> IMF (M2) 1% 114p, 3 15p, 6 15p 13, (21) 14

21 < III-6> 5bp (, p) ( ) : 1 VAR 2 VAR Akaike :1~21: < III-6> 14 5bp, 15p 36p, 6 2p, , 1 39p, 3 2pp 56p 15

22 2,,,,, /, 1 (Federal Fund Rate) 1%p, 16

23 (+) (+) Federal Fund Rate < III-7> < III-7> 5bp (, p) ( ) : 1 / VAR 2 VAR Schwarz :1~21: < III-7> 5bp, 1 46p, 3 129p, 6 231p 17

24 5bp 3p, IMF (+) IMF %, 1%, 7% %,, S&P IMF 5bp 17p, 3 4p, 12 8p 18

25 < III-8> < III-8> 1p 1 296p, 3 234p, p < III-8> 1p (, p) ( ) : 1 VAR 2 VAR Schwarz :1~21: IMF, IMF 16 S&P5 S&P5 1p 1 287p, 3 118p, 12 34p 1p 1 6p, 627p, 12 37p 19

26 , % 98186%, 99219%, 2 31%, 18 < III-9> < III-9> 1, 131p, 3 153p, IMF 1p 116p, 3 15p, 6 16p 18 (1999) 19, 1 115p, 3 131p 2

27 < III-9> 1 (, p) ( ) : 1 VAR 2 VAR Schwarz :1~21: , J-curve, 21

28 (2)(+), / (-) 21 2 / < III-1> < III-1>/ 1 (, p) -4 ( ) : 1 VAR 2 VAR Schwarz :1~21: < III-1>/ p, p, 6 556p J 2, (1999),, (21) 21 (2) 22

29 23, / /, /, / /, /,, VAR < III-11> < III-11> / p 3 75p, 6 3p,

30 < III-11> / 1 (, p) ( ) : 1 / / VAR 2 VAR Akaike :1~21: Jones and Kaul (1996)

31 , (WTI) < III-12> < III-12> 5 (, p) ( ) : 1 VAR 2 VAR Akaike :1~21: < III-12> (WTI) p, 3 141p 6 163p, 25

32 26 VI , Chen, Roll, Ross, (+) (-), (-) (+) (-) IMF VAR IMF (-) IMF (+), (-) (+) / (-), (+) J

33 IMF IMF, /, /, (-) /,,, 5bp 5bp ( )/ ( ) IMF, IMF 27

34 < 1> 1 VAR IMF ( ), :, : (M2),,, : (Federal Fund Rate),, /,, /, (WTI) M2,, X-12 ARIMA 2 (spurious regression) 28

35 (unit root test) 1 DF (Dickey-Fuller test), ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test), PP (Phillips-Perron test) <2> ADF (KOS) (LDKOS) -7227*** -5744*** *** -4616*** (IP) (LDIP) -7688*** -5114*** *** -4266*** (CPI) (LDCPI) *** -6813*** -5166*** -572*** (RISK) *** *** -4161*** -4154*** (TERM) ** ** ** (M2) (LDM2) -6731*** *** -4631*** *** (CBR) (DCBR) *** *** -5424*** *** (FFR) (DFFR) *** * * -2694* (DOW) (LDDOW) -5882*** -5641*** -482*** -5414*** (FSI) *** *** *** *** / (WD) (LDWD) *** *** *** *** / (YD) (LDYD) -6333*** -5349*** *** *** (WTI) (LDWTI) -711*** -4629*** -462*** -419*** : 1 ADF 1%:-349, 5%:-288, 1%: ***, **, *Mackinnon 1%, 5%, 1% 4 ADF 29

36 <2> <2> ADF,, <2> :,, :, : 3 AIC, SIC <3> * * ** * * : * Akaike Information Criteria **Schwarz Information Criteria 3

37 < 2> 1:Chen, Roll, Ross Accumulated Response to Cholesky One SD Innovations Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDIP Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDCPI Accumulated Response of LDIP to RISK Accumulated Response of LDIP to TERM Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDIP Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDCPI Accumulated Response of LDCPI to RISK Accumulated Response of LDCPI to TERM Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDKOS Accumulated Response of RISK to LDIP Accumulated Response of RISK to LDCPI Accumulated Response of RISK to RISK Accumulated Response of RISK to TERM Accumulated Response of RISK to LDKOS Accumulated Response of TERM to LDIP Accumulated Response of TERM to LDCPI Accumulated Response of TERM to RISK Accumulated Response of TERM to TERM Accumulated Response of TERM to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDIP Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDCPI Accumulated Response of LDKOS to RISK Accumulated Response of LDKOS to TERM Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDKOS

38 2: Accumulated Response to Cholesky One SD Innovations Accumulated Response of LDM2 to LDM2 Accumulated Response of LDM2 to LDIP Accumulated Response of LDM2 to LDCPI Accumulated Response of LDM2 to DCBR Accumulated Response of LDM2 to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDM2 Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDIP Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDCPI Accumulated Response of LDIP to DCBR Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDM2 Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDIP Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDCPI Accumulated Response of LDCPI to DCBR Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDKOS Accumulated Response of DCBR to LDM2 2 Accumulated Response of DCBR to LDIP 2 Accumulated Response of DCBR to LDCPI 2 Accumulated Response of DCBR to DCBR 2 Accumulated Response of DCBR to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDM2 Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDIP Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDCPI Accumulated Response of LDKOS to DCBR Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDKOS

39 3: Accumulated Response to Cholesky One SD Innovations Accumulated Response of DFFR to DFFR Accumulated Response of DFFR to LDDOW Accumulated Response of DFFR to FSI Accumulated Response of DFFR to LDWD Accumulated Response of DFFR to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDDOW to DFFR Accumulated Response of LDDOW to LDDOW Accumulated Response of LDDOW to FSI Accumulated Response of LDDOW to LDWD Accumulated Response of LDDOW to LDKOS Accumulated Response of FSI to DFFR Accumulated Response of FSI to LDDOW Accumulated Response of FSI to FSI Accumulated Response of FSI to LDWD Accumulated Response of FSI to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDWD to DFFR Accumulated Response of LDWD to LDDOW Accumulated Response of LDWD to FSI Accumulated Response of LDWD to LDWD Accumulated Response of LDWD to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDKOS to DFFR Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDDOW Accumulated Response of LDKOS to FSI Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDWD Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDKOS

40 4:/ Accumulated Response to Cholesky One SD Innovations Accumulated Response of LDYD to LDYD 5 Accumulated Response of LDYD to LDWD 5 5 Accumulated Response of LDYD to FSI Accumulated Response of LDYD to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDWD to LDYD Accumulated Response of LDWD to LDWD Accumulated Response of LDWD to FSI Accumulated Response of LDWD to LDKOS Accumulated Response of FSI to LDYD 12 Accumulated Response of FSI to LDWD Accumulated Response of FSI to FSI Accumulated Response of FSI to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDYD 16 Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDWD 16 Accumulated Response of LDKOS to FSI 16 Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDKOS

41 5: Accumulated Response to Cholesky One SD Innovations Accumulated Response of LDWTI to LDWTI 8 Accumulated Response of LDWTI to LDIP 8 Accumulated Response of LDWTI to LDCPI 8 Accumulated Response of LDWTI to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDWTI Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDIP Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDCPI 25 Accumulated Response of LDIP to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDWTI 1 Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDIP 1 Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDCPI 1 Accumulated Response of LDCPI to LDKOS Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDWTI Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDIP Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDCPI Accumulated Response of LDKOS to LDKOS

42 < >,, 14 2,, , pp 21~55,,,,, 2, 199, pp375~41,,,, ,,,, 1998,, 99-12,, 19996,, 161, 1999, pp155~17,, 14 4,, 1992, pp 63~77,,,, 12,, 199, pp347~374,, LG 612, LG, ,, 62,, ,,, 3 1,, 199 4, pp 53~83,,RATS,, 1997,, LG 613, LG, , -VECM, 17 1,, 2 6, pp137~159,,, 21,, 21224,,,, , pp 3~27 Chen, Nai-Fu, Richard Roll and Stephen A Ross, "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal 36

43 of Business, Vol 59, No 3, 1986, pp 383~43 Cheung, Yin-Wong and Lilian K Ng, International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity, Journal of Empirical Finance 5, 1988, pp281~296 Chung, eetaik and Bong-So Lee, Fundamental and Nonfundamental Components in Stock Prices of Pacific-Rim countries, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, vol 6, 1998, pp321~346 Chung, S Kwon and Tai S Shin, The Effect of Macroeconomic Variable on Stock Market Returns In Developing Markets, Multinational Business Review, Fall 1997, pp63~7 Cutler, David M, James M Poterba and Lawrence H Summers, "What Moves Stock Price," The Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol 15, No 3, Spring 1989, pp 4~12 Fama, E F and G W Schwert, "Asset returns and Inflation," The Journal of Financial Economics, Vol 5, No 2, 1977, pp115~146 Jones, Charles M and Kaul, Gautman, Oil and the stock Market, Journal of finance, June1996, pp 463~491 Lee, Bong-Soo, "Causal Relations Among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," The Journal of Finance, Vol 47, No 4, September 1992, pp1591~163 Mukherjee, Tarun K and Atsuyuki Naka, "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market : An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," The Journal of Financial Research, vol 18, No 2, Summer 1995, pp223~237 37

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