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1 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2, September 2013 : pp. 59~83 부문별에너지소비와경제성장의 인과관계분석 59

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4 < 표 1> 주요경제및에너지지표변화, 1990 년 2011 년 ~ [ 그림 1] 우리나라의경제및에너지관련주요지표변화, 1990 년 ~2011 년 62

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11 2) 여기서소표본이라함은약 개의표본을지칭한다. 69

12 < 표 2> 단위근검정결과 70

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14 < 표 3> 산업부문의 Johansen 검정의공적분검정결과 < 표 4> 수송부문의 Johansen 검정의공적분검정결과 72

15 < 표 5> 가정 상업부문의 Johansen 검정의공적분검정결과 73

16 < 표 6> Granger 인과관계검정결과 74

17 < 표 7> 산업부문오차수정모형추정결과 75

18 < 표 8> 가정 상업부문오차수정모형추정결과 76

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20 접수일 (2013 년 6 월 12 일 ), 게재확정일 (2013 년 8 월 12 일 ) 78

21 : : CO Abosedra, S. and H. Baghestani New evidence on the causal relationship between United States energy consumption and gross national product. Journal of Energy and Development, Vol.14, pp.285~292 Akarca, A. T. and T. V. Long On the relationship between energy and GNP: a re-examination. Journal of Energy and Development, Vol.5, pp.326~331 Apergis, N., Payne, J.E Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model. Energy Economics 31, Chen, S.-T., Kuo, H.-I., Chen, C.-C The relationship between GDP and electricity consumption in 10 Asian Countries. Energy Policy 35, Cheng, B.S Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in brazil, Mexico, and Venezula: A Time Series Analysis. Applied Economics, Letters Vol.4, Engle, R. F. and C.W.J. Granger Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55, Glasure, Y. U Energy and National Income in Korea: Further Evidence on the Role of Omitted Variable. Energy Economics, 24,

22 Granger, C. W. J Investigating Causal Relation By Econometric and Cross-Sectional Method. Econometrica, 37, Gonzalo, J Comparison of Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equilibrium, Relationships. Journal of Economics, Vol.60, No. 12, pp.203~233. Ho, C-Y., Siu, K.W A dynamic equilibrium of electricity consumption and GDP in Hong Kong: an empirical investigation. Energy Policy 35. 4), Hwang, D.B.K and B. Gum The causal relationship between energy and GNP: the case of Taiwan. Journal of Energy and Development, Vol.16, pp.219~226 Johansen, S. and K. Juselius Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, Jumbe, C.B.L Cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi. Energy Economics 26, Karanfil, F Energy consumption and economic growth revisited: does the size of unrecorded economy matter?. Energy Policy 36 (8), Kraft, J. and Kraft A On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP. Journal of Energy and Development, 3, Lee, C. C Energy Consumption and GDP in Developing Countries: A Co-integrated Panel Analysis. Energy Economics, 27, Lee, C. C. and C. P. Chang Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: A Panel Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries. Energy Economics, 29, Maddala, G.S Introduction to Econometrics, Macmillan. Masih, A.M.M. and R. Masih Energy Consumption, Real Income and Temporal Causality: Results from a Multi-Country Study Based on Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling Techniques. Energy Economics, 18, Mozumder, P. and Marathe, A Causality Relationship Between Electricity Consumption and GDP in Bangladesh. Energy Policy, 35,

23 Oh, W. K. and Kihoon Lee. 2004a. Causal Relationship Between Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: the Case of Korea Energy Economics, 26, b. Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Korea: Testing the Causality Relation. Journal of Policy Modelling, 26, Perman. P Cointegratuib: An Introduction to the Literature. Journal of Economic Studies, Vol.18, No 3, pp.3~20. Shiu, A., Lam, P Electricity consumption and economic growth in China. Energy Policy 32, Sims, C. A Money, Income and Causality. American Economic Review, September, Soytas, U. and Sari, R Energy Consumption and GDP: Causality Relationship in G7 Countries and Emerging Markets. Energy Economics, 25, Squalli, J Electricity consumption and economic growth: bounds and causality analyses for OPEC members. Energy Economics 29, Stern, D. I Energy and Growth in the U.S.: A Multivariate Approach. Energy Economics, 15, Stewart, Kenneth G Introduction to Econometrics, Thomson, Toda, H. Y. and Phillips, P. C Vector Autoregressions and Causality. Econometrica, 61, Yoo, S Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Korea. Energy Policy 33, Yu, E. S. H. and J. Y. Choi The Causal Relationship Between Energy and GNP: An International Comparison. Journal of Energy and Development, 10, Yu, E. S. H. and B. K. Hwang The Relationship Between Energy and GNP: Further Results. Energy Economics, 6(3), Yu, E. S. H. and J. C. Jin Co-integration Tests of Energy Consumption, Income and Employment. Resource and Energy, 14(3),

24 Zachariadis, Theodoros Exploring the Relationship Between Energy Use and Economic Growth with Bivariate Models: New Evidence from G-7 Countries. Energy Economics, 29, Zhang, Xing-Ping, Cheng, Xiao-Mei Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China. Ecological Economics 68 (10),

25 ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between sectoral energy consumption and economic growth for Korea from 1991 to 2011 employing the vector error-correction model estimation. With respect to the direction of causality, industrial sector is uni-directional running from energy consumption to economic growth in long term as well as short term. Transport sector, on the other hand, real GDP growth leads to energy use only in short term. Lastly, there is bidirectional causality between energy consumption and real GDP in residential and commercial sector. These findings have important policy implications, since the adoption of suitable structural policies can induce energy conservation. Key Words : Sectoral energy consumption, Economic growth, Granger causality, Vector error correction model JEL Codes : C22, L94, Q43, Q48 83

부문별 에너지원 수요의 변동특성 및 공통변동에 미치는 거시적 요인들의 영향력 분석

부문별 에너지원 수요의 변동특성 및 공통변동에 미치는 거시적 요인들의 영향력 분석 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 15, Number 1, March 2016 : pp. 33 ~ 67 부문별에너지원수요의변동특성및공통변동에 미치는거시적요인들의영향력분석 33 ~ < 표 1> 에너지소비량과주요변수들의연평균증가율 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 34 35 36 37 38 ~ 39 [ 그림 1] 부문별에너지원소비량의증가율