IDP www idp or kr IDP 정책연구 한국경제의구조적문제와개혁방향 민주정책연구원 The Institute for Democracy and Policies

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1 IDP 정책연구 IDP 정책연구 한국경제의 구조적 문제와 개혁방향 The Institute for Democracy and Policies 서울시 영등포구 영등포동 6가 133번지 민주정책연구원 Tel : Fax : 민주정책연구원 민주정책연구원 IDP 정책연구 한국경제의 구조적 문제와 개혁방향 민주정책연구원 The Institute for Democracy and Policies

2 IDP www idp or kr IDP 정책연구 한국경제의구조적문제와개혁방향 민주정책연구원 The Institute for Democracy and Policies

3 ( ) ( ) 2012 (1) 2008 (2) (3) (4) ~1996 ( ) 1988~1996 6

4 ~ (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

5 (1998~2007) ( ) (2) (3) (4) (5) FTA (1) ( ) (2) (3) (1)

6 www idp or kr Contents ~ IV V * 민주정책연구원

7 (1) (2) 2012 ( ) ~

8 1988~ ~1996 : 1) 8 3% 2001~ % 50 (/ ) 1994 ~ % % % 15~25% ( 2-1 ) ) ( 2-2 ) ~1996 4

9 * 2 4) 3) 15%~20% /5 ( 2-3 ) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~1996 6

10 ) ( 2-4 ) ~ % 2001~ % ( 2-5 ) ) ~1996 8

11 1980 (1992 ) ~1996 : OECD % ~ ~

12 ~1996 ( ) ( ) ( ) 1960 ( ) () ( ) 1998 ( ) ( ) ( ) 11 12

13 ( ) ( Plutonomics) [ ] 1988~ : GDP 1990 (43 ) GDP( ) % % % GDP ( )

14 3. 2 :, - GDP GDP 9 5% % 8% 25% GDP 4 2% 2 2% ( ) 700% ( 70% ) ( 3-1 ) 3-1 4, , , ,500 2,000 1, ,

15 2000 IV 2011 ( 4-1 ) 4-1 4,000 3,500 3, , , ,500 1, ) (

16 ) ( ) ( ) 5 ( ) ~ ~ ~ ~2010 2q *GDP 2) ( ) 97 () 01 (IT ) 04 ( ) 08 ( ) ( 4-2 ) ~ GDP 6% 08 4/4 GDP 20 2% ( 50% )

17 3) G % 1 69% 90 3~ ~ ~ / * 2011 / *GDP [ ] GDP ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ( ) / / / ~3 2. ( ) 1) ) CD RP ( ) - (BIS ) (

18 ) ( 4-3 ) ) ( ) + () ( 4-4 ) 2000 ( 4-5 )

19 ( / ) ( ) ( % ) ( ) GDP ( ) % % GDP % % 3 ( 4-6 ) ( ) 4. 1)

20 4-7 GDP ) ( % 52 4%) ( 4-7 ) GDP 70 6% 57 9% 58 6% ) 2002 ( 4-8 )

21 , , , , , , ( + ) 4 ( LG SK) % 2008~ % % ( 4-10 ) 4) % % 1980 ( 4-9 )

22 ) LG SK ) ( ) ( )

23 2) 43% ( 4-11 ) 87% 1/ ) ( ) % 5 7% ( 4-12 ) IT

24 ( 4-13 ) % 50.1% 50.3% 49.9% % % 50.0% 49.0% 48.0% % % 46.9% % 46.0% % ( /) % ( %) 4) % ( ) 4 100% 30% - ( )

25 5) ( 4-15 ) % (2 )( 4-14 ) (2 ) 6) ( ) % ( 4-16 )

26 (5) * (1) (2) (3) (4) V , ( ) ( )

27 5-1 ( ) ~ ( ) ( ) ( ) 1) - ( 5-1 ) 2) (self-regulation) + (de-regulation) ( ) (re-regulation) ( ) - (capital management technique) - ( ) 41 42

28 (Speed bumps) - (Currency risk) NDF( ) - (Flight risk) ( / ) - (Fragility risk) (positive ) 3) ( ) - - 4) / ( 10% ) 43 44

29 - / 2-5) (positive ) / ( / ) - ( WTO ) - GDP 45 46

30 - (ripple effect) / (Kaitz index) 30% ( - - ) ( ) - ( ) Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands NewZealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Turkey United Kingdom West Germany United States Russian Federation OECD countriess ( ) - -EU FTA ISD - FTA -EU FTA EU - - IT

31 6) % % [ ] 8000~1 1~2 2~3 3~5 5~ ) () () ( ) ( ) ( / ) ( ) % 2 OECD 1975(29 4%) 1985(32 5%) % OECD (24 4%) 33% ( ) 18~24% - ( %) % ( 0 1%) 63 1% ( 58 6%) 49 50

32 < < < 10 ( )

33 Chang Park & Yoo 1998 Interpreting the Korean crisis financial liberalization industrial policy and corporate governance Cambridge Journal of Economics Crotty & Lee 2001 Economic Performance in Post-Crisis Korea A Critical Perspective on Neoliberal Restructuring Crotty & Lee 2002 Is financial liberalization good for developing nations? The case of South Korea in the 1990s Review of Radical Political Economics Crotty & Lee 2008 Was IMF-Imposed Economic Regime Change in Korea Justified? The Political Economy of IMF Intervention Review of Radical Political Economics Epstein Grabel 2003 Capital Management Techniques in developing Countries An Assessment of Experience from the 1990 s and Lessons for the Future Grabel 2004 Trip Wires and Speed Bumps Managing Financial Risks and Reducing the potential for financial crises in developing economies ILO 2011 Global Wage Report 2010/11 Kotz 2007 Contradictions of Economic Growth in the Neoliberal Era Accumulation and Crisis in the Contemporary U S Economy Review of Radical Political Ecnomics Kotz 2010 The Financial and Economic Crisis of 2008 A Systemic Crisis of Neoliberal Capitalism Review of Radical Political Economics Onaran & Stcokhammer 2005 Two different Export-Oriented Growth Strategies Accumulation and Distribution in Turkey and South Korea Emerging Markets Finance and Trade Palley 2009 America s Exhausted Paradigm Macroeconomic Causes of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession Paniceria 2010 The Financial Crisis of and Emerging Countries The Political Economy Analysis of Central Banks in The Brazilian and Korean Ecnomies Seguino 1999 The investment function revisited discipling capital in South Korea Journal of Post Keynesian Economics UNCTAD 2011 Employment golbalization and development Trade and Development Report Opening to Capital Flows and Implications from Korea Working Paper No / BOK 53 54

34 2011 IDP http //www minjoo kr http //www idp or kr

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기획7.hwp 2014 사회정책연합 공동학술대회 한국사회의 사회안전망을 점검한다 복지확대기의 조세재정정책방향: 지방재정과의 연계 1) 최 성 은 (한국조세재정연구원) 1. 서론 최근 우리나라는 복지정책에 있어서 상당한 패러다임의 변화를 맞이하며 급격하게 복지확대기로 접어들고 있다. 현 정부의 무상보육, 의료보장성 확대, 기초연금의 도입 등은 그간 저소득층 및 취약계층 위주의