부문별 에너지원 수요의 변동특성 및 공통변동에 미치는 거시적 요인들의 영향력 분석

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "부문별 에너지원 수요의 변동특성 및 공통변동에 미치는 거시적 요인들의 영향력 분석"

세인 미
5 years ago
Views:

1 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 15, Number 1, March 2016 : pp. 33 ~ 67 부문별에너지원수요의변동특성및공통변동에 미치는거시적요인들의영향력분석 33

2 ~ < 표 1> 에너지소비량과주요변수들의연평균증가율 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 34

3 35

4 36

5 37

6 38

7 ~ 39

8 [ 그림 1] 부문별에너지원소비량의증가율 40

9 [ 그림 2] 부문별에너지원소비량의연평균증가율 41

10 < 표 2> 부문별에너지원수요증가율간의상관계수 42

11 for and 43

12 44

13 ~ ~ ~ 45

14 46

15 [ 그림 3] 전부문차원의동행성 47

16 [ 그림 4] 부문별에너지소비량증가율비교 48

17 49

18 ~ < 표 3> 부문별에너지원수요변동의요인별분산분해 50

19 51

20 52

21 53

22 54

23 ~ 55

24 [ 그림 5] 위수 (rank) 의분포 56

25 < 표 4> 거시적요인들이전부문차원의동행성 ( ) 에미치는효과 57

26 ~ 58

27 < 표 5> 전부문차원동행성의변동요인분석 59

28 60

29 접수일 (2015 년 11 월 12 일 ), 게재확정일 (2015 년 12 월 10 일 ) 61

30 , 2008, 2,, 17, 3, pp , 2003,,, 12 2., 2012,,., 2013,,, 12, 2, pp , 2015,,, 14 2, pp , 2015, : 78,, 14 2, pp , 2014,., 2013,,, 22, 4, pp , 2013, :,, 12, 2, pp , 2013,,, 22, 3, pp Burns, A. F. and Mitchell, W. C., 1946, Measuring Business Cycles, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York. Crucini, M. J. Kose, M. A. and Otrok, C., 2011, What are the driving forces of international business cycles?, Review of Economic Dynamics 14, pp

31 Geem, Z. W. and Roper, W. E., 2009, Energy demand estimation of South Korea using artificial neural network, Energy Policy 37, pp Glasure, Y. U. and Lee, A. R., 1997, Cointegration, error-correction, and relationship between GDP and electricity: the case of South Korea and Singapore, Resource and Energy Economics 20, pp Kose, M. A. and Otrok, C. and Whiteman, C. H., 2003, International Business Cycles : World, Region and Country Specific Factors, American Economic Review 93, pp Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2005, Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries : A cointegrated panel analysis, Energy Economics 27, pp Oh, W. and Lee, K., 2004, Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP revisited: the case of Korea , Energy Economics 26, pp Poirier, D., 1995, Intermediate Statistics and Econometrics: A Comparative Approach, Cambridge: The MIT Press. Soytas, U. and Sari, R., 2003, Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets, Energy Economics 25, pp Uhlig, H., 2005, What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure, Journal of Monetary Economics 52, pp Zellner, A., 1971, An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Econometrics, New York: John Wiley & Sons. Yu, S. H. and Choi, J. Y., 1985, The causal relationshi between energy and GNP: an international comparison, Journal of Energy and Development 10, pp

32 < 부록 1> 동태은닉공통인자모형의추정결과 (I) 64

33 < 부록 1> 동태은닉공통인자모형의추정결과 (II) 65

34 ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to identify the main features of sectoral energy consumption in Korea, by decomposing each sectoral energy consumption into common and idiosyncratic variations. This paper also attempts to find the main driving forces of the common variations of energy consumption which are extracted from each sectoral energy consumption. The dynamic latent common factor model is estimated by the Bayesian MCMC method and used to find contributions of various driving forces. The main findings of this paper are summarized as follows. First, except for industrial electricity consumption, most sectoral energy consumption is mainly driven by sector-specific or idiosyncratic components, rather than macroeconomic variables. In particular, this pattern is strongly found in energy consumption of the commercial sector. Secondly, it turns out that the main driving force of the common variations of energy consumption in Korea is the economic growth rate. It approximately accounts for 76~80% of total variations of the common variations. However, it is also found that the effects of other various factors, such as the population growth rate, energy intensity, the fraction of energy-intensive industries, CDD(Cooling Degree Days) and HDD(Heating Degree Days), have steadily increased in explaining the common variations of energy consumption in Korea. 66

35 Key Words : Sectoral Energy Consumption, Dynamic Latent Common Factor Model, Bayesian MCMC, Variance Decomposition JEL Codes : Q43, E31, E32 67

에너지경제연구 제12권 제2호

에너지경제연구 제12권 제2호 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 12, Number 2, September 2013 : pp. 59~83 부문별에너지소비와경제성장의 인과관계분석 59 60 61 < 표 1> 주요경제및에너지지표변화, 1990 년 2011 년 ~ [ 그림 1] 우리나라의경제및에너지관련주요지표변화, 1990 년 ~2011 년 62