에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 11, Number 2, September 2012 : pp. 85~114 산업별에너지원간대체관계추정을통한탄소세의 CO 2 감축효과분석 * 85

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1 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 11, Number 2, September 2012 : pp. 85~114 산업별에너지원간대체관계추정을통한탄소세의 CO 2 감축효과분석 * 85

2 86

3 ~ ~ 87

4 ~ 88

5 89

6 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 90

7 ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 91

8 ln ln ln ln 92

9 93

10 < 표 1> 비용비중함수추정식의통계적유의도및설명력 94

11 95

12 96

13 97

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15 99

16 100

17 < 표 4> 탄소세부과방법및탄소세율산정흐름 ( 음식담배업종예 ) 101

18 < 표 5> 이산화탄소배출계수 102

19 < 표 6> 업종별에너지원별탄소세 ( 전력포함 ) 율 103

20 < 표 7> 탄소세부과에따른에너지소비량및이산화탄소배출량변화 ( 제조업, 2008 기준 ) 104

21 105

22 < 표 8> 탄소세부과에따른이산화탄소배출량변화율비교 106

23 < 표 9> 탄소세부과에따른업종별에너지소비및 CO 2 배출량변화율 107

24 < 표 10> 탄소세부과에따른원별에너지소비및 CO 2 배출량 변화율 ( 제조업전체 ) < 표 11> 탄소세부과에따른원별에너지소비및 CO 2 배출량 변화율 ( 에너지다소비 3개업종 ) 108

25 109

26 110

27 접수일 (2012 년 5 월 16 일 ), 게재확정일 (2012 년 7 월 2 일 ) ,,, ( ws/articleview.html?id xno=72745), 2012a ( ) p.16., 2012b ( ) p.31. Barker, T., P. Ekins, N. Johnstone Global Warming and Energy Demand, Routledge. Taylor & Francis Group. Berndt, E. R. and D. O. Wood "Technology, Prices, and the Derived Demand for Energy". The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 57, pp and "Engineering and Econometric Interpretations of 111

28 Energy-Capital Complementarity". The American Economic Review, Vol. 69 No. 3, pp Bjørner, T. B. and H. H. Jensen "Interfuel Substitution within Industrial Companies: An Analysis Based on Panel Data at Company Level". The Energy Journal, Vol. 23 No. 2, pp Brännlund, R. and T. Lundgren "A Dynamic Analysis of Interfuel Substitution for Swedish Heating Plants". Energy Economics, Vol. 26, No. 6, pp Cho, W. G., K. Nam, and J. A. Pagán "Economic Growth and Interfactor/Interfuel Substitution in Korea". Energy Economics, Vol. 26, pp Considine, T. J. 1989a. "Estimating the Demand for Energy and Natural Resource Inputs: Trade-offs in Global Properties". Applied Economics, Vol. 21, pp b. "Separability, Functional Form and Regulatory Policy in Models of Interfuel Substitution". Energy Economics, Vol. 11 No. 2, pp "Symmetry Constraints and Variable Returns to Scale in Logit Models". Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 8 No. 3, pp Considine, T. J. and T. D. Mount "The Use of Linear Logit Models for Dynamic Input Demand Systems". Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 66, pp Field, B. C. and C. Grebenstein "Capital-Energy Substitution in U.S. Manufacturing". The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 62 No. 2, pp Floros, N. and A. Vlachou "Energy Demand and Energy-related CO 2 Emissions in Greek Manufacturing: Assessing the Impact of a Carbon Tax". Energy Economics, Vol. 27, pp Fuss, M. A "The Demand for Energy in Canadian Manufacturing: An Example of the Estimation of Production Structures with Many Inputs". Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp Greene, W. H Econometric Analysis. 5th ed. Prentice Hall. Griffin, J. M. and P. R. Gregory "An Intercountry Translog Model of Energy Substitution Responses". The American Economic Review, Vol. 66 No. 5, pp. 112

29 IEA World Energy Outlook OECD/IEA. Jones, C. T "A Dynamic Analysis of Interfuel Substitution in U.S. Industrial Energy Demand". Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 13 No. 4, pp Kim, B. C. and W. C. Labys "Application of the translog model of energy substitution to developing countries: The case of Korea". Energy Economics, Vol. 10 No. 4, pp Kratena, K. and M. Wüger "The Role of Technology in Interfuel substitution: A Combined Cross-section and Time Series Approach". WIFO Working Papers, No Ma, H., L. Oxley, J. Gibson and B. Kim "China s energy economy: Tecnical change, factor demand and interfactor/interfuel substitution". Energy Economics, Vol. 30, pp Pindyck, R. S "Interfuel Substitution and the Industrial Demand for Energy-An International Comparison". The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 61, pp Steinbuks, J "Interfuel Substitution and Energy use in the UK Manufacturing Sector". EPRG Working Paper University of Cambridge. Turnovsky, M., M. Folie and A. Ulph "Factor Substitutability in Australian Manufacturing with Emphasis on Energy Inputs". The Economic Record, Vol. 58 No. 1, pp Urga, G. and C. Walters "Dynamic translog and linear logit models: a factor demand analysis of interfuel substitution in US industrial energy demand". Energy Economics, Vol. 25, pp

30 ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of carbon taxes on the reduction of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions by estimating the elasticities of interfuel substitution in 9 Korean manufacturing sectors and to draw its policy implications. For the purpose, this study estimates cost share functions of each energy source throughout static linear logit models, and calculates own-price elasticities and cross-price ones of fuel resources. Furthermore, using estimated elasticities of interfuel substitution for each manufacturing sector, this study analyzes the effect of carbon tax on CO 2 emissions reduction. In order to find the differences in impacts of imposing carbon tax on both primary energy and final energy, this study analyzes both of them and shows that imposing carbon tax on primary energy is more cost effectiveness than imposing carbon tax on final energy in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. That is, if carbon taxes are to be introduced, imposing carbon tax on primary energy like in other nations will make it easier to achieve policy goals. Key Words : logit model, carbon tax, elasticity of substitution, manufacturing JEL Codes : D24, Q41, Q48 114

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에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 10, Number 1, March 2011 : pp. 1~24 국내화력발전산업에대한연료와자본의대체성분석 1 2 3 ~ 4 5 F F P F P F ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 6 ln ln ln ln ln 7 ln