에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 18, Number 1, March 2019 : pp 에너지전환정책및고령화가국민경제에미치는영향 : 확률적중첩세대일반균형모형 (Stochastic Overlapping Genera

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 18, Number 1, March 2019 : pp 에너지전환정책및고령화가국민경제에미치는영향 : 확률적중첩세대일반균형모형 (Stochastic Overlapping Genera"

주이 호
5 years ago
Views:

1 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 18, Number 1, March 2019 : pp 에너지전환정책및고령화가국민경제에미치는영향 : 확률적중첩세대일반균형모형 (Stochastic Overlapping General Equilibrium Model) 을이용한분석 1

2 2

3 3

4 4

5 5

6 6

7 α and 7

8 exp if and if β ν 8

9 max and 9

10 10

11 11

12 12

13 and 상품시장의균형은다음과같은식으로청산된다. 13

14 < 표 1> 모수설정 14

15 < 표 2> 기술진보율및소비여가대체탄력성모수설정 15

16 < 표 3> 연령별소득분포분산 < 표 4> 세대별전력소비비율모수설정 16

17 < 표 5> 세대별전력소비량 17

18 < 표 6> 세대별전력소비비율 18

19 19

20 < 그림 1> 전기요금상승시나리오에의한소비및자산변화율 20

21 21

22 < 그림 2> 전기요금상승시나리오에의한노동량및노동소득변화율 22

23 < 그림 3> 전기요금상승과고령화에의한소비및자산의변화 23

24 < 그림 4> 에너지전환정책과고령화에의한노동량및노동소득의변화 24

25 25

26 26

27 27

28 28

29 , 2014., , , 2015., Optimal Income Tax Rates for Korean Economy, 1998,, , :, 2007,,, 2015., , 2015., 2016., ( ), (2017), 2018., VIP Aiyagari, S.R. and Peled, D Dominant root characterization of Pareto optimality and the existence of optimal equilibria in stochastic overlapping generations models Journal of Economic Theory 54, Aiyagari, S.R Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving The Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 109, No. 3 29

30 Allais, M Economie at interet. Paris Imprimerie Nationale Altig, D Simulation Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States American Economic Review vol91, No3 pp Chattopadhyay, S The unit root property and optimality: a simple proof. Journal of Mathematical Economics 36, Diamond, P.A National Dept in a Neoclassical Growth Model American Economic Review, 55, pp Giorgio, G., L. Patrizio, and M, Giovanni The impact of population ageing on energy use: Evidence from Italy Economic Modelling volume 35 Lygia, R. and Nina, H Energy consumption in an ageing population: exploring energy use and behaviour of low-income older Australians Energy Procedia 121 Miles, D Modelling the impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy The Economic Journal Volume 109 Issue 452 pp1-36 Samuelson, P.A Am exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money J.Polit Econ. 66 pp

31 ABSTRACT This study analyzed the effects on the national economy by using the Stochastic Overlapping General Equilibrium Model when energy conversion policy and demographic change such as aging occurred at the same time. The scenario used was based on the result of the energy conversion policy and the result of 20%, 50% and 100% increase in electricity rates. As a result, energy conversion policies reduce disposable income after retirement, especially at age 75, consumption by scenarios drops by 4%, 5.8% and 8%, respectively. Labor-enabled households are more likely to save more than spend in many households as a measure against reduced disposable income after retirement. This shows that consumption is decreasing as age increases, while the rate of asset reduction decreases as age increases from 30 to 60 in each scenario. As a result, it can be seen that the energy conversion policy has a greater impact on the elderly than the working age group. Key Words:Stochastic overlapping generation equilibrium model, Aging, Energy conversion policy 31

2

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 10, Number 1, March 2011 : pp. 1~24 국내화력발전산업에대한연료와자본의대체성분석 1 2 3 ~ 4 5 F F P F P F ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln ln 6 ln ln ln ln ln 7 ln