에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 67~94 기온효과를반영한 한국의환경쿠즈네츠가설검정 * :,,,, . ( ),

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1 에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 1, March 2018 : pp. 67~94 기온효과를반영한 한국의환경쿠즈네츠가설검정 ** *** :,,,, *. ** ( ), papa@kogas.or.kr *** ( ), yongjulee@ynu.ac.kr

3 - 69 -

5 1)

6 CO 2, SO 2 CO

7 CO 2 2) CO

8 < 표 1> 환경쿠즈네츠가설에대한선행연구

10 < 표 2> 연료연소시부문별탄소배출비중 3) 3)

11 4) ~ 5) 4)

12 < 표 3> 분석자료주요통계 ln ln ln ln ln ln

13 6) ln ln ln ln ln ln ln v t

14 7) < 표 4> 단위근검정결과

15 ~ ~

16 < 표 5> 공적분검정결과 ( ) ( )

17 8) < 표 6> 공적분회귀모형추정결과

18 9) 10)

19 11) 10) 11)

20 < 표 7> 오차수정모형추정결과 z t

21 z t-1 z t

22 - 88 -

23 ~

24 접수일 (2017 년 10 월 12 일 ), 수정일 (2017 년 11 월 22 일 ), 게재확정일 (2017 년 12 월 6 일 )

25 CO 2 EKC : CO 2 GRDP. 23.(4) : CO 2., : 41~ : (3) : , and OECD. 8.(1) : ,, CO. 12.(1) : (3) : 107~ (4) : (3) : (9) : , 62.(3) : (3) :

26 (4) : (3) : (2) : 149~ CO 2,. 21.(2) : OECD (4) : Andreoni, James, and Arik Levinson The simple analytics of the environmental Kuznets curve. Journal of public economics 80.2 : Baek, Jungho, and Hyun Seok Kim Is economic growth good or bad for the environment? Empirical evidence from Korea. Energy Economics 36 : Bertinelli, Luisito, and Eric Strobl The environmental Kuznets curve semi-parametrically revisited. Economics Letters 88.3 : Borghesi, Simone The environmental Kuznets curve: a survey of the literature. Copeland, Brian R., and M. Scott Taylor Trade, spatial separation, and the environment. Journal of International Economics 47.1 : Copeland, Brian R., and M. Scott Taylor Trade, growth, and the environment. Journal of Economic literature 42.1 : Fosten, Jack, Bruce Morley, and Tim Taylor Dynamic misspecification in the environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from CO 2 and SO 2 emissions in the United Kingdom. Ecological Economics 76 : Galeotti, Marzio, Matteo Manera, and Alessandro Lanza On the robustness of robustness checks of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Environmental and resource economics 42.4 : Grossman, Gene M., and Alan B. Krueger Economic growth and the environment. The quarterly journal of economics :

27 Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, and Thomas M. Selden Stoking the fires? CO 2 emissions and economic growth. Journal of public economics 57.1 : Liao Hua, Cao Huai-Shu How does carbon dioxide emission change with the economic development? Statistical experiences from 132 countries. Global Environmental Change 23.5 : Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, and Antonello Maruotti The impact of urbanization on CO 2 emissions: evidence from developing countries. Ecological Economics 70.7 : Mitić, Petar, Olja Munitlak Ivanović, and Aleksandar Zdravković A cointegration analysis of real GDP and CO 2 emissions in transitional countries. Sustainability 9.4 : 568. Nahman, Anton, and Geoff Antrobus The environmental Kuznets curve: a literature survey. South African Journal of Economics 73.1 : Richmond, Amy K., and Robert K. Kaufmann Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions?. Ecological economics 56.2 : Romero-Ávila, Diego Convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among industrialised countries revisited. Energy Economics 30.5 : Selden, Thomas M., and Daqing Song Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions?. Journal of Environmental Economics and management 27.2 : Stern, David I., Michael S. Common, and Edward B. Barbier Economic growth and environmental degradation: the environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development. World development 24.7 : Verbeke, Tom, and Marc De Clercq The income environment relationship: Evidence from a binary response model. Ecological Economics 59.4 : Westerlund, Joakim, and Syed A. Basher Testing for convergence in carbon dioxide emissions using a century of panel data. Environmental and Resource Economics 40.1 :

28 ABSTRACT This paper tests Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis using time series data of Korea in the time period between the years 1971 and 2014, and analyzes the determinants of CO 2 emissions. For this purpose, we consider GDP per capita, the portion of renewable energy relative to the nation s power source, final energy consumption per capita, and cooling and heating degree day as the explanatory variables. And, considering nonstationarity of the time series, we analyze the relationship between CO 2 emissions and explanatory variables in the framework of a cointegration model and an error correction model. The test results show that there exists a statistically significant positive relation among GDP, cooling and heating degree day, final energy consumption and CO 2 emissions, and a statistically significant negative relation among GDP square, the portion of renewable energy and CO 2 emissions. That is, the results ascertain the existence of Environment Kuznets Curve in Korea and the significancy of temperature effects on CO 2 emissions. Key Words : CO 2 emission, Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis, Temperature Effects, Cointegration, Error Correction Model

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 2, September 2018 : pp. 1~29 정책 용도별특성을고려한도시가스수요함수의 추정 :, ARDL,,, C4, Q4-1 -

에너지경제연구 Korean Energy Economic Review Volume 17, Number 2, September 2018 : pp. 1~29 정책 용도별특성을고려한도시가스수요함수의 추정 :, ARDL,,, C4, Q4-1 - . - 2 - . 1. - 3 - [ 그림 1] 도시가스수요와실질 GDP 추이 - 4 - - 5 - - 6 - < 표 1>