Calculation of MUF for the Pyro-processing Facility KINAC 정책연구개발실정연홍 2016. 5. 12.( 목 )
CONTENTS 1 연구배경 2 주요내용 3 주요결과
1 연구배경
연구개요 민감핵주기기술개발 국내에서후행핵주기기술대안중하나로건식재처리기술개발을추진중 Pu 과같은특수핵물질 (Special Nuclear Materials) 처리시설 핵비확산성보증 (IAEA 안전조치적용 ) 설계정보서 핵물질계량관리 현장검증 격납감시 4
연구개요 핵물질계량관리 지정된구역내핵물질의양및변화량을확인하기위해수행하는활동 MBA 구분, MBA 별핵물질양에대한기록유지 PIT 기간내물질수지를확정하고 MUF 계산 계산된 MUF 량과허용오차를확인 규제시스템구축을위한핵확산에대한정량적평가 미계량핵물질 (MUF) : 핵물질계량관리의유효성검증 핵물질매력도 (FOM) : 공정내취약지점분석 / 검증 5
미계량핵물질 (Material Unaccounted For) 물질수지구역 (Material Balance Area, MBA) 에서의물질재고의오차및계량오차량 MUF = PB + X Y PE Where, PB : the beginning physical inventory X : the sum of increases to inventory Y : the sum of decreases to inventory PE : the ending physical inventory 6
물질수지평가 (MUF 불확도 ) 벌크시설에서는측정오차, 공정오차, 측정에서의오류, 측정되지않은손실, 기록에서의오류등으로 MUF 에서불확도가필연적으로발생 통계적가설검정 탐지확률 95% 3.3σ MUF 1SQ(8kg) Threshold z α = 1. 65 z α = 3. 30 오경보확률 (α) : 5% 0kg ( 정상운전 ) 8kg ( 핵물질전용 ) 7
물질수지평가 (MUF 불확도 ) 오차 (Error) 의종류 Random Error(σ r ) : 동일한측정조건하에서생기는오차 Systematic Error(σ s ) : 측정기기의부정확성, 측정방법의차이등에서발생하는오차 오차발생요인들 Bulk(σ b ) : 측정에서발생하는오차 Sampling(σ s ) : 표본추출에서발생하는오차 Analytic(σ a ) : 분석에서발생하는오차 오차전파 (Error Propagation) 를통해대표오차산정 σ 2 k MUF = i=1 M Oi 2 δ O ri 2 n Oi + δ Osi 2 * IAEA TECDOC-261, IAEA Safeguards Technical Manual, IAEA, Vienna, 1982 8
2 주요내용
Facility Information (Pyro-processing facility) Pyroprocessing Flow : KAPF Metal Waste From NM Storage PWR SF Hull Decladding/ Voloxidation Zr (UO 2 +TRU+FP) Oxide (Pellet) Oxide Reduction Anode Sludge Waste Electro- Refining U recovery U Ingot Reuse Semi-volatile FPs O 2 /Ar Off-gas Treatment Used Salt Salt Treatment Clean Salt (U+TRU+FP) Metal Clean Salt Used Salt (U+TRU+FP) SFR (Transmutation) SFR Fuel Filter Waste Form Cs Sr Used Salt Electro- Winning SFR Fuel Fabrication Decay Storage Some of them are HLW Salt Waste Form (U+TRU+FP) (Metal) TRU : Transuranic elements NM : Noble metal elements FP : Fission products 10 Seong Won Park, ANS, 2013.
Facility Information (MBA, KMP) Spent Nuclear Fuel Assemblies MBA-1 Head-end process Waste Porous Pellets MBA-2 Main Pyro-process U/TRU ingot U ingot Waste 11
Facility Information (Measurement Method, Uncertainty) 12 * H. Aigner, R. Binner, E. Kuhn, International Target Values 2000 for Measurement Uncertainties in Safeguarding Nuclear Materials, IAEA, Vienna, Austria
Model Data Burnup : 45GWd/MTU Cooling Time : 10yrs ORIGEN 13
Process Yield Fraction Normal Distribution 14
Total mass flow simulation MBA1 MBA2 15
Error Calculation in each KMP Gauss Error Propagation σ 2 k 2 MUF = i=1 M δ 2 O ri 2 Oi + δ n Osi Oi 16
KMPs Information 17
Main Dashboard 18
Sampling/Uncertainty Data Input 19
3 주요결과
각 MBA 별 σ MUF Total Error (U235) Total Error (Pu) MBA-1 14,624 g MBA-1 18,142 g MBA-2 18,756 g MBA-2 26,893 g 21
σ_muf (kg) Pu 의 MBP 별 σ MUF 30 25 20 15 10 5 8 3.3 0 IAEA detection goal : 3.3σ MUF 1SQ (8kg) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Material Balance Period (month) MBA1 MBA2 22 * Scott DeMuth (LANL), Proliferation Risk Assessment for Large Facilities with Simulation and Modeling, Global 2011 Chiba, Japan December 11-16, 2011
σ_i (g) MBA2 의 KMP 별기여도 9000 8000 7000 U/TRU Product δ s = 6.9 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 Porous Pellets NDA DA 1000 0 KMP_1 KMP_2 KMP_3 KMP_4 KMP_A KMP_B KMP_C 23
σ_muf (kg) δ s 에따른 σ MUF 의민감도 25 20 15 10 5 8 3.3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Material Balance Period (month) 6.9% 5.9% 4.9% 3.9% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.5% 24
결론 30 MTU/yr 규모의재처리시설에서의 MUF 불확도가높아 detection goal 을달성하기어려움 이를달성하기위해서는 MBP 를줄이거나 MUF 불확도에미치는영향이높은 U/TRU product 에서의계통오차 (systematic error) 를 0.5% 이하로줄여야함 가정이많고입력값에대한검증이필요 벌크시설에대한신뢰할수있는공정정보, 계측정보, 물질수지정보가주어진다면합리적인 MUF 불확도및공정 / 계측에대한성능목표치추정가능 25
감사합니다 E-Mail: jyh1404@kinac.re.kr