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1 최종보고서 KAERI/CM-1177/2009

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11 1) 이러한시각은 1961 년아일랜드의제안에의해유엔총회의결의로채택되었다. Prevention of the Wider Dissemination of Nuclear Weapons", UNGA Res. 1665, 4 Dec., 반면 Kenneth Waltz 는핵무기의점진적확산은국제체제전반에걸쳐자제 (restraint) 를확산시켜오히려전쟁을억제할수있다고보았다. Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More may be Better, Adelphi Paper 171,

12 2) Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (hereinafter NPT), July 1, 1968, 728 United Nations Treaty Series ) United Nations, Status of Multilateral Arms Regulation and Disarmament Agreements 참조. 4) 가령, 미국의케네디대통령은 1963 년기자회견에서핵확산을막지못한다면 1970 년까지 10 개국, 그리고 1975 년까지는 개국이핵무기를보유할것이라고예상한바있다. Richard Reeves, President Kennedy: Profile of Power (1993), p

13 5) Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, "The Future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty", Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Vol. 30 (2006), p ) Orde F. Kittrie, "Averting Catastrophe: Why the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is losing its Deterrence Capacity and How to restore it", Michigan Journal of International Law, Vol. 28 (2007), pp

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15 7) 미국은전세계에존재하는핵물질을유엔의기구에이관하고이기구로하여금이물질을배타적으로관리하도록하자는계획을유엔에제안하였다. 미국과소련은이에대해협의를했으나구체적조건에합의하지못했고결국미국은 Baruch Plan 을유엔의의제로부터철회하였다. 이에관해서는 Richard Smoke, National Security and the Nuclear Dilemma: An Introduction to the American Experience in the Cold War (1993), p. 127 참조. 8) 아이젠하워대통령은 1953 년의유엔총회연설에서핵보유국들은핵물질을국제기구에이관하고동기구가평화적목적의핵물질이용을감독하도록하자고제안하였다

16 9) Prevention of Wider Dissemination of Nuclear Weapons". UNGA Res. 1665, 4 Dec., 1961/ - 8 -

17 10) NPT, Art. I 11) Ibid., Art II - 9 -

18 12) Ibid., Art. III 13) Ibid., Art. VI 14) Ibid., Art. IV 15) Ibid., Art. X

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20 16) NPT, 제 10 조 2 항 17) 물론이것은법적인전제조건은아니지만최소한정치적전제조건으로이해되었다. Thomas Graham, Jr., Common Sense on Weapons of Mass Destruction, 2004, p ) Decisions and Resolution adopted at the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference, Decision 2: Principles and Objectives for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament

21 19) Decisions and Resolution adopted at the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference, Decision 1: Strengthening the Review Process for the Treaty 20) Decisions and Resolution adopted at the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference, Resolution on the Middle East

22 21) 2000 NPT Review Conference Final Document, Arms Control Today, June ) Jonathan Granoff, "The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and Its 2005 Review Conference: A Legal and Political Analysis", New York University Journal of International Law and Politics, Vol. 39 (2007), p

23 23) 이미 2004년에유엔고위급패널은 We are approaching a point at which the erosion of the non-proliferation regime could become irreversible, and result in a cascade of proliferation" 라고전망한바있다. The Secretary-General of the UN, A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility, Report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Changes, Dec. 2,

24 24) Greg Thielmann, "Rumsfeld reprise? The missile report that foretold the Iraq intelligence controversy", Arms Control Today, 33:6, July/August ) Statement by President Bush accompanying publication of NSS

25 26) Harald Muller, The 2005 NPT Review Conference: Reasons and Consequences of Failure and Options for Repair, The Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission No. 31, 2006, pp

26 27) William Walker, "Nuclear Enlightenment and Counter-Enlightenment", International Affairs, 83:3 (2007), p ) Press Conference, UN Secretary-General Koffi Annan, Sept. 13,

27 29) 오바마대통령은그의메시지를통해당사국간협력의중요성을강조하였다.... that differences are inevitable and that NPT Parties will not always view each element of the Treaty in the same way... We must define ourselves not by our differences, but by our readiness to pursue dialogue and hard work to ensure that the NPT continues t omake an enduring contribution to international peace and security."

28 30) 이에관해서는 Rebecca Johnson, "Laying Substantive Groundwork for 2010: Report of the 2009 NPT PrepCom", Disarmament Diplomacy, No. 91, ) Ibid

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30 32) 국제원자력기구의 El Baradei 사무총장은 현체제하에서핵비보유국이우라늄농축시설이나핵재처리시설을갖거나무기급핵물질을보유하는것은전혀불법적인것이아니다 라고언급한바있다. Mohamed El

31 Baradei, "Towards a Safer World", Economist, Oct. 18, p ) 2000 년검토회의에서채택된 13 개의실제적조치는비핵화에대한핵보유국들의명백한의무 (unequivocal undertaking) 를확인하였다. 그러나부시행정부는동결정의수용을거부한바있다

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33 34) IAEA, International Nuclear Verification Series: The Evolution of IAEA Safeguards, IAEA Doc. IAEA/NVS/2 (Nov. 1998) 35) 이에대해서는 Ramesh Thakur, Jane Boulden and Thomas G. Weiss, Can the NPT Regime be fixed or should it be abandoned? Occasional Papers No. 40 (2008), pp

34 36) World Energy Outlook 2007 (Paris: IEA, 2007)

35 37) Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030 (Vienna: IAEA, 2007) 38) 20/20 Vision for the Future: Background Report by the Director General for the Commission of

36 Eminent Persons (Vienna: IAEA, 2008) 39) 미국의 2006년 4개년국방검토보고서 (Quadrennial Defense Review Report) 는핵무기를어떤경우에도사용할수있는억제무기의일부로규정하고있다. US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report (Feb. 6, 2006), p ) Molly Moore, "Chirac: Nuclear Response to Terrorism is Possible", Washington Post, Jan. 20,

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41 41) The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by President Barack Obama, Prague, Czech Republic, April 5, ) Barack Obama, "Renewing American Leadership," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 4 (2007)

42 43) The Office of the President-Elect, "Obama-Biden Plan." 44) 신성호, 부시와오바마 : 핵테러에대한두가지접근, 국가전략 제 15 권 1 호 (2008)

43 45) U.S. Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review, Submitted to the Congress, December 31, ) 신성호 (2008: 19). 47) 2009 년 12 월현재새로운 NPR 의발표가늦어지고있는데, 내년 3 월과 5 월에각각예정된 세계핵정상회의 (Global Nuclear Summit) 와 NPT 평가회의 를감안하면늦어도내년 1-2 월중으로는새로운 NPR 이공개될것으로예상된다. 48) Remarks by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at the United States Institute of Peace, October 21,

44 49) White House Office of the Press Secretary, "Fact Sheet on the United Nations Security Council Summit on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Nuclear Disarmament, UNSC Resolution 1887," September 24, ) The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Press Conference by the President, L'Aquila, Italy, July 10, ) 대표적인국무부고위관료로는엘렌타우셔 (Ellen Tauscher) 국무부군축및국제안보차관 (Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security) 을들수있다. Daniel Horner and Tom Z. Collina, "Pressing a Broad Agenda for Combating Nuclear Dangers: An Interview with Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Ellen Tauscher," Arms Control Today, November ) Susan F. Burk, "Strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: A Blueprint for Progress," Remarks at Geneva Center for Security Policy, August 12, 2009, "Leadership for a Nuclear Weapon-Free World: Shared Responsibilities, Shared Outcomes," Remarks at the 21st United Nations Conference on Disarmament, August 26, 2009, and "Defining Success: The Contribution of the 2010 NPT Review Conference to A Reinvigorated Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime," Remarks to Middle Powers Initiative Event, October 13,

45 53) Rebecca Johnson, "Enhanced Prospects for 2010: An Analysis of the Third PrepCom and the Outlook for the 2010 NPT Review Conference," Arms Control Today, June ) 류광철, "NPT 체제의미래 : 제 7 차 NPT 평가회의결과및평가를중심으로," 주요국제문제분석 외교안보연구원, 2005 년 7 월 1 일. 55) George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, "A World Free of Nuclear Weapons," The Wall Street Journal, January 4,

46 56) 김영호, " 오바마행정부의핵군축정책과한미동맹," 한국정치학회국방안보특별학술회의논문집, 2009 년 11 월 일, pp ; Joseph Cirincione, "US Nuclear Policy: The Open Window for Transformation," Harvard International Review, Spring 2009, 57) The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by the President at the Acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize, December 10, ) Steve Hollan, "Can Obama persuade world on nuclear arms?" Reuters April 7,

47 59) Statement by Rose Gottemoeller, Assistant Secretary of State for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation, the Third Session of the Preparatory Committee, 2010 Review Conference of the NPT, May 5, ) Remarks by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at the United States Institute of Peace, October 21,

48 61) Jean Du Preez, "Half Full or Half Empty?: Realizing the Promise of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty," Arms Control Today 36 (December 2006)

49 62) 전성훈, " 국제핵비확산및핵군축레짐의현황과전망," 한국정치학회국방안보특별학술회의논문집, 2009 년 11 월 일, p ) Miles Pomper, "Report form the NPT Preparatory Committee 2009" CNS Feature Stories, Monterey Institute of International Studies, May 26,

50 64) 이장근, "NPT 2010 평가회의의주요현안및전망," 제주평화연구원군축비확산학술회의논문집, 2009 년 6 월 19 일, p ) Susan F. Burk, "Defining Success: The Contribution of the 2010 NPT Review Conference to A Reinvigorated Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime," Remarks to Middle Powers Initiative Event, October 13,

51 66) 이장근 (2009: 10). 67) Remarks by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at the United States Institute of Peace, October 21,

52 68) 이장근 (2009: 8). 69) "13 Practical Steps for the Systematic and Progressive Efforts to Achieve Complete Disarmament" 는

53 다음과같다. 1) CTBT 조기발효, 2) CTBT 발효시까지핵실험모라토리움유지, 3) 제네바군축회의 (CD) 에서의 FMCT 협상조속개시, 4) CD 내에해군축을다루기위한보조기구설치, 5) 핵군축에있어불가역성 (irreversibility) 원칙적용, 6) 핵무기완전철폐를위한핵보유국들의명확한공약, 7) START-II 의조기발효, ABM 조약유지및이행, START-III 협상조기개시, 8) 미 - 러 -IAEA 간 3 자회담구상 (Trilateral Initiative) 체결및이행, 9) 핵군욱을위한핵보유국들의구체적조치들이행, 10) 불용군사적목적핵분열물질의 IAEA 등국제검증체제관리, 11) 핵군축의궁극적목적이일반적, 완전한군축실현임을확인, 12) 핵군축이행에관한정기적보고, 13) 핵군축에대한검증기술개발. 70) Remarks by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at the United States Institute of Peace, October 21,

54 71) The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Joint Understanding, July 8, ) Tom Z. Collina, "Administration Pushes to Finish New START," Arms Control Today, September ) The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by President Barack Obama, Prague, Czech Republic, April 5,

55 74) Remarks by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at CTBT Article XIV Conference, September 24,

56 75) 전봉근, "2010 년 NPT 평가회의와한국의입장," 한국정치학회국방안보특별학술회의논문집, 2009 년 11 월 일, p ) Paul Meyer, "Breakthrough and Breakdown at the Conference on Disarmament: Assessing the Prospects for an FMCT," Arms Control Today, September 2009." 77) Remarks by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at the United States Institute of Peace, October 21,

57 78) 2009 제네바군축회의성과없이종료, 연합뉴스 2009 년 9 월 19 일. 79) 이장근 (2009: 10). 80) 손성환, 이란이핵개발동향과전망, 주요국제문제분석 외교안보연구원, 2006 년 3 월 10 일

58 81) 황지환, 핵학산의국제정치와비확산체제의위기 : 북한과이란의사례연구, 국제관계연구 제 14 권 1 호 (2009), pp ) The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by President Barack Obama, Prague, Czech Republic, April 5,

59 83) 전성훈 (2009: 207). 84) U.S. Department of Energy, "Global Nuclear Energy Partnership: Stakeholder's Guide," and "Department of Energy Announces New Nuclear Initiative."; 신성호, " 미국원자력 / 핵비확산정책및의사결정체계," 한국원자력연구원제 2 회원자력에너지와핵비확산워크숍, 2008 년 1 월 21 일. 85) 신성호 (2008: 24-25)

60 86) Daniel Horner, "Part of GNEP Officially Canceled," Arms Control Today, May ) 이장근 (2009: 10). 88) Barack Obama, "A New Beginning," Chicago, October 2, ) 신성호 (2008: 13-21)

61 90) Daniel Horner, "Nuclear Security Summit Planned for March," Arms Control Today, September

62 91) The White House Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by President Barack Obama, Prague, Czech Republic, April 5, ) The Office of the President-Elect, "Obama-Biden Plan."

63 93) Barack Obama, "A New Beginning," Chicago, October 2,

64 94) 김창기, 우리야말로핵재처리를할수있어야한다, 조선일보 2009 년 5 월 5 일. 95) 미국정부의분위기는현재한미원자력협정의현상유지 (status-quo) 에있다는견해가있다. Miles A. Pomper, "The Next U.S.-ROK Nuclear Agreement: Negotiating Obstacles and Opportunities," Korea Nonproliferation Forum, Institute for Peace and Cooperation, November 9,

65 96) Daniel Horner, "S. Korean Pyroprocessing Awaits U.S. Decision," Arms Control Today, July/August ) Miles A. Pomper, "The Next U.S.-ROK Nuclear Agreement: Negotiating Obstacles and Opportunities." 98) Daniel Horner, "S. Korean Pyroprocessing Awaits U.S. Decision," Arms Control Today, July/August

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KJNWFZ concept Paper final_Korean version with notes_June14

KJNWFZ concept Paper final_Korean version with notes_June14 (KJNWFZ) 1 2010 4 25 (KJNWFZ).. (Global Abolition),,. 1. 2,,. 3. 1. 40. 1,.,. 1.1. 2, (NPT) 1975 3. 1 : Peter Hayes, peter@nautilus.org 2 S. Parrish J. du Preez Nuclear- Weapon-Free Zones: Still a Useful