ISSN 1975-667 13. 1
13. 1
1 1 8 8 6 6 5
5 1, 3.8 8 6 1.7 1.9 5 3.8 1 1 5-5 -1-1 5-5 6
3 67.7 3 1 8 65. 96.1 96.9 1 8 5 5 188.5 15 17.7 15-1 -.1 -.3 -.9-1 - -1.7 - -3-3 - - -5-5 -6-5.5-6 7
1 1 8 8 9 79.9 76. 7.8 9 6 6 6 58. 6 3 1.7 5. 19. 13. 3 1.6 1. 1.3 1.6 1. 6 6.8.8.8.... 8
5 5 1 1 3 3 1 1 8 8 15 15 6 6 18 18 16 16 15 15 15 1 15 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 9
18. 15 1.6 1 1. 9.8 6 3. 1 3. 5-5 5 3.5 3..5. 1.5 1
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8.6% 7.1% 36.% 1.% 1.9% 96.8% 61.6% 6. -1% 1.1-19%. -% 9.% 3.1% 1.9% 5.5 9.8 1.7 13
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79.8% 5.7% 5.1%.3% 1 1 8 6 6 5 3 5 5 3,5 3, 1,5 1, 15 15 9 1 1,5 6 5 5, 3 1,5 15
1,6 1,6 1, 1,173 1,118 1, 965 85 8 8 5 181 8-19 -1 - -9-6 5 3 1 6 5 3 1 16
17
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6 53 39 7 6 1 1 19
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15 1 5 16. 1.3 13. 15 1 5 5 3 1 1 1 8 6 5
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3.6.5 3 1 5 1 5 1 1.9.1 1-5 -5-1 -1 9
1 1-1 -1 3 67.7 3 6 5 5 5-15 1 5 15 188.5 17.7 15 3
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3 3.1 1 8. 1 3
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3 1 1 1 1 1 8 8 6 86.6 8.7 83.9 6 39 39 38 38 13. 15.1 16....1 37 37
15 15 1 5 1 5 5
-3 13 13 11 11 8 8 9 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6
1 8 6 1 8 6 61. 3 3 3. 37.6.1 9. 1 1-1 -1 R =Hp +I ^k /1-C ^[max(ltv -k,)]/1 R Hp I k C LTV 7
6 5 3 6 5 3 3 1 3 1 1 1 R =[(I ^a )/1+(C ^b )/1]/Hpº^1 R =[(I ^i )/1+(D ^(k -i ))/1]/Hpº^1 k =a +b R I C D k a b i Hpº -1-1 - -3 - -3 8
5 5 15 15 1 5 1 5 9
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8 +7.3%p 6 8. 75.7 8 1~ 9.9 9.9 +9.3%p 58.7 9. 8 6 6 5 3.8% 9.7% 3.6% 51.9% 51
1 8 6 1 8 6 3 1-1 - -3-3 1-1 - -3-5
6 6 1 1 1 1 8 8 6 6 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 53
1 8 6 1 8 6 1 1 8 5% 65% 6% 6 35% % 6% 8 6 5
1 1 1 1 8 6 8 6 18 18 15 1 9 6 15 1 9 6 3 3 3 3 1 1-1 -1 - -3 - - -3-55
1 1,5,5-1 - -3 - -1, - 1,5-3 - 1,, 1,5 1, -5-6 -7-8 -5-6 -7-8 5 5 5.8 5.6 5. 5. 5.8 5.6 5. 5. 56
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1 1-1 - -1-3 15-15 -3 3 15-15 -3 1 1 5 5-5 -1-5 -1-15 -15 59
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5 5 5 5 35 3 5 35 3 5 3.8 3.8 3. 38.7 (.) (3.) (7.9) 33.9 37. 36. 1.3 (3.3) (.1) (7.) 6.3 3.7 9.8 3.7 (.) (3.5) (8.) 33.9 37.1 35.8 1.1 (3.) (1.9) (7.) 37.7 1..5.7 (3.3) (.8) (7.) 37.1 1.9 1.7 9. (.8) (.6) (1.1) ΣN i=1si ΣN i=1sidi Si= 1 if ICR<1 : N Σ N i=1d i otherwise : x y xy y 63
5 5 1 8 6 +6.1%p +7.9%p 1 8 6 3 3 +3.5%p +.%p +3.%p +1.8%p 1 1 1 8 6 +5.7%p +.9%p +.%p +3.3%p +.1%p +7.%p 1 8 6 6
65
55 5 5 8 6 8 6 8 6 - - 69
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1. 8. 6.. 1..8.6..... 3.5 -. -. -. -. 3..5. 1.5 75
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1..8 1..8.6.6.... 1 8.. 1 8 6 6 3 3 1 1 79
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85
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3 3 1-1 - 1-1 - 87
88
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18 9 1 5. 6.5 6 3 9
9 6 3-3 -6 5 3 1-1 - 1.5. 1.5 1.. 3..6 8.5 1.8 15 1 6. 1. 5 91
1 1 5 3 5 8 8 6 6 15 3 1 5 3 1 3 16 8 9
3 3 3.. 3.. 1 1 1.6.8 1.6.8.. -.8-1.6 -.8-1.6 93
6 5 15 3 5 8 7 1 5 1 19 18. 1..5. 6 9
1.8 37. 5 1 19.8 8. 5 5 3 3.66 3.8 38. 5..7.8 1 1 95
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1 1 8.6% 1 8 6 1 8 6 7.1% 36.% 1.% 1.9% 99
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9.% 3.1% 1.9% 61.6% 96.8% 1.8.8 (53.) (119.5) 5. 1.7 9. 6.9 1.9 (1,93.) 11.3 (7.) 8.6 7.7 7.8 (336.6).3 3. 8.9 (389.8) 13
1 1 8 6 1 1 8 6 1 1 8 6 8 6 1
8 8 53.9 7.7 6.9 7 7 6 6. 5 5 3 3 15
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1 1 87. 8. 8 8 7. 7. 6 56.1 6 5. 5 3 1 7. 11.5.5% 5.6 8. 3.9 35.8 1 7.8 9 8 7 6.1....1.7.5. 5 5 3 33.5 3. 3 1 7.9 9.% 9.9 11. 7.1 1 111
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1,8 1,8 1,6 1,6 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 8 8 6 1 8 - -8-1 -1 1 8 - -8 118
8 6 38 36 5 3 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 119
1 1 1 1 1 1 15 15 +6.7 15 15 8 6 8 6 1 +5. 1 75 +1.7 75 5 5 5 5 19.8 15 15.7 15 1 9.9 1 5 5 1
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5 15 1 3. 3. 3..8 8. -9.5 8.9-15.7.6 -. 9.7 (7.9 (6.9) (15.7) (.1) (.7) (-1.7) (7.9) 16.3) -37 16-1 57-15 -17 (.8 (.61) (.7) (3.) (.8) (.99) (.8).5) 5.6. -5. 13
1 11 1 13 1~6 7~9 35.9 5. 39.1 5. 37.1 15.1 15.7 11.3 13. 51.6 13.9 18.1 6.6. 5. 15.1 13.3 9. 19.5..8. 16. 1.9 19.1 6.6 7. 8. 9.1 9.9 3.1.7 3. 3.6 3.5 17. 17.7. 16.5 15.9 1
-5 1 1 8 6. 33.9 77.9 8 6 1 1 8 31.9 31.8 3.1 3. 8 6 3.6 35.5 33.6 3.6 3.6 33.3 33. 33. 6 15
1 1 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 1 8 6 1 8 6 A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC CC C D A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC CC C D 16
1 8 1 6 1 1 1, 8-1 8 6-1 AAA AA+ ~ AA- A+ ~ A- BBB+ ~ BBB- BB+ ~ BB- B+ ~ 1 8 6 1 6 8 6 17
1 11 1 9 8 9.5 1. 9.5 8.7 1. 11.7 1 11 1 9 8 AAA BBB+ Baa1 7 7 AAA A- A3 6 6 AAA A- A3 6 6 AAA BBB+ Baa1 7 7 AA+ A- A3 5 5 AA+ BBB Baa 7 7 AA+ BBB+ Baa1 6 6 AA BBB- Baa3 7 7 AA BBB- Baa 7 6 A+ - Baa3-5 A+ BB Ba 7 7 18
1 8.6 6 5 6 3 1..5.9.7.5 6 8 1.6 1.7 1 19.8 6.6 86. 6 8 1 19
15 1 5 1 1 8 6 15 1 5 13
3,5 3,,5, 1,5 1,5 1, 9 6 3 1 1-1 -1 - -3 - -3 131
1 1 8 6 6 5 5 15 5 15 3 1 1 5 5 8 6-6 6 - - 13
15 1 5 15 1 5-5 -1-5 -1 9 6 9 6 3 3-3 -3-6 -6 133
6 5 3 1 6 5 3 1 1,6 1,6 1, 1, - - 8 8 - - -6-6 13
-6 8 8 6 6 15 9 15 9 3-3 3-3 -3-3 -15-15 135
1.5 1. 1.5 1..5.5.. 18, 1, 1, 6,, -, 1,735 3,7 5,31-11 18,,383 6,3,837 696 1, 1, 6,, -, -.5-1..1. -.1 -. -.3 -.5-1..1. -.1 -. -.3 -. -. -.5 -.5 136
3 3 1 1 1-1 - -3 - -5-6 -1 - -1-137
3,6,8, 1, 3,6,8, 1, - - 1-1 - 1-1 - -3 - -3-16 1 1 1 8-1 - -3-1 - -3 - - 138
139
13
1
15
5 5 36.9 3.3 5 5 19
91. 6 6 15 1 5 118 163 6.3 15 1 5 18. 1 11.7 16.1 15. 1 1 1..6 1 1..6.. 15
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1 1.3 1.1.3 1 6. 6.1 8. 35 3 5 35 3 5 5 3 1 3.6 3. 3.3.9.1 3.5 5 3 1 15
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9 9 6 6 6 79.9 76. 58. 7.8 6 51.3 9.9 1.9 6 9 9 53. 5.6 3 1.7 19. 13. 3 8.6 9. 6.3 3. 5..3 3 3 3 7. 15.3 13.1 1. 3 3 6 6 15
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1 3 5 9 69.8 76. 8 1 3 5 5 6 6 1 35 3 5-8 6-37.3 66.5 - - 8 6 156
5 5 5 38.6 3.9 3 15 8.3 1.9 7.3 5. 157
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6 35 5 3 3 5 5 5 15 1 5 15 1 5 159
16
1 1 5 3.1 3. 5 3 1 1 3 161
16
5 (.7) 69 (19.5) 1 (6.) 853 (.1) 8 (6.) 669 (18.9) 78 (8.3) 73 (.6) 1,8 (35.9) 698 (19.8) 37 (9.7) 5 (1.9) 1,1 (33.3) 88 (.9) 3,369 (1.) 3,536 (1.) 163
56 9 11 1,16 637,19,18 3 3 1 5 163 8 8 57 16 938 9 1,511 365 1,876 681 1,538 7 558 3 3,8 8,76 896,63 153 67 653,79 39 35 58 513 5,97 5,6 8,7 6 5 3 1 16
1, 8 6 3,5 3,,5, 1 8 6, 3,5 3,,5, 165
11, 3 5 9, 7, 15 1 5, 5 3, 166
167
in jn Σ b ji +a q i+a z i+s i = jn Σ b ij +d q i+d z i b ij a q i a z i s i d q i d z i N={1,...,n} a q i a z i s i d q i d z i i n b i b n d q 1 d z 1 i b i b in d q i d z i n bn bni dn q d z n aq 1 a q i a q n a z 1 a z i a z n s 1 s i sn d q i r 1 i r 1 i=d q i x i jn Σb ji a q i q i ji x i = jn Σb ji +a q i q i=a q ix i ji =b ji x i r i r i= jn Σ ij x j r i r i =r 1 i+r i x j x i =min(x i, jn Σ ij x j +d q i), in ei ei=xi-ri 168
11 11 36 5 9 37 36 5 9 37 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 9 169
5 15 1 3 3 3 75 1,6 1, 8-181 5 8 85 1,173 1,118 965-19 -1-9 1,6 1, 8-17
6, 6, 5,, 5,, 3, 3,,, 1, 1, 6, 5,, 3, 6, 5,, 3, 8 6 - - -168 3-6 3 8 687 5 18-6 6 - -,, 1, 1, 171
16 1 8-8 - 8 - -8 17
173
175
176
177
178
179
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