저작자표시 - 비영리 - 변경금지 2.0 대한민국 이용자는아래의조건을따르는경우에한하여자유롭게 이저작물을복제, 배포, 전송, 전시, 공연및방송할수있습니다. 다음과같은조건을따라야합니다 : 저작자표시. 귀하는원저작자를표시하여야합니다. 비영리. 귀하는이저작물을영리목적으로이용할수없습니다. 변경금지. 귀하는이저작물을개작, 변형또는가공할수없습니다. 귀하는, 이저작물의재이용이나배포의경우, 이저작물에적용된이용허락조건을명확하게나타내어야합니다. 저작권자로부터별도의허가를받으면이러한조건들은적용되지않습니다. 저작권법에따른이용자의권리는위의내용에의하여영향을받지않습니다. 이것은이용허락규약 (Legal Code) 을이해하기쉽게요약한것입니다. Disclaimer
경영학석사학위논문 투자발전경로이론의가설검증 - 한국사례의패널데이타분석 - 2012 년 8 월 서울대학교대학원 경영학과국제경영학전공 김주형
단위 : 억달러
단위 : 억불
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 445 368 344 381 300 307 284 290 221 240 79 84 67 54 64 2007년 2008년 2009년 2010년 2011년 OFDI( 신고액 ) IFDI( 도착액 ) IFDI( 신고액 ) NOI( 도착액 ) NOI( 신고액 )
α β μ
α β γ μ α β
l l l l l
NOI i = αgdp i + βgdp i 2 NOI it = g(gdp it ) + γd t + η I + ε it g(gdp it ) = β 0 + β 1 GDP it + β 2 GDP it 2 + β 3 GDP it 3 η ε i 2 3
NOI it = g(gdp it ) + γd t + η I + ε it g(gdp it ) = β 0 + β 1 GDP it + β 2 GDP it 2 η ε
NOI it = g(gdp it ) + γd t + η I + ε it g(gdp it ) = β 0 + β 1 GDP it + β 2 GDP it 2 η ε
noi Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] gdp.0143525.0371734 0.39 0.700 -.0586242.0873292 gdp2 2.14e-06 5.46e-07 3.91 0.000 1.07e-06 3.21e-06 _cons -1781.495 477.786-3.73 0.000-2719.456-843.5342 noi Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] gdp -.1787789.0290896-6.15 0.000 -.2359791 -.1215788 gdp2 6.71e-06 7.15e-07 9.39 0.000 5.31e-06 8.12e-06 _cons -713.0375 220.2002-3.24 0.001-1146.027-280.0481
noi Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] gdp -.1670818.0648142-2.58 0.010 -.2945588 -.0396049 gdp2 3.19e-06 7.36e-07 4.34 0.000 1.75e-06 4.64e-06 _cons 2423.705 1119.457 2.17 0.031 221.9521 4625.458
Spain Australia Austria Canada China -3000-2000 -10001000-4000 -20000-2000 -10001000 2000 0 10000200003000040000 0 20000 40000 60000 1000020000300004000050000 1000020000300004000050000 0 1000 20003000 4000-10001000 2000-5 0-200 -150-100 NOI 0500010000 0-40000 -30000-20000 -10000 Denmark Finland France Germany Greece 0 500010000-8000 -6000-4000 -2000 0 500010000 0 20000 40000 60000 1000020000300004000050000 10000 20000 30000 40000 10000 20000 30000 40000 0 10000 20000 30000 Hong Kong Hungary Italy Japan Korea 01000 2000 3000 0 10000 20000 30000 0 5000 10000 15000 10000 20000 30000 40000 10000 20000 30000 40000 0 5000100001500020000 0 500010000 0 5000-2000 -10001000-1500 -1000-500500 Norway Poland Portugal Singapore Sweden -20002000 4000 6000-4000 -3000-2000 -1000-4000 -20000 20000400006000080000100000 0 5000 10000 15000 0 10000 20000 30000 0 10000200003000040000 1000020000300004000050000-30000 -20000-10000 -20002000 4000 0 50000 Switzerland Taiwan Turkey UK US 02000 4000 6000-2000 -1500-1000 -50 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 0 5000 100001500020000 2000 4000 6000 800010000 1000020000300004000050000 1000020000300004000050000 Graphs by state GDP 0 500010000 02000 4000 6000
NOI -50000 0 50000-50000 0 50000-50000 0 50000-50000 0 50000-50000 0 50000 Spain Australia Austria Canada China Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hong Kong Hungary Italy Japan Korea Norway Poland Portugal Singapore Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Turkey UK US 0 50000 100000 0 50000 100000 0 50000 100000 0 50000 100000 0 50000 100000 GDP Graphs by state NOI -500000 50000-500000 50000-5 000 00 50 000-500000 50000-500000 50000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0 5 000 0 10 0000 0 50 000 1000 00 0 500 00 1 000 00 0 5000 0 10 0000 0 50 000 100 000-5 000 00 50 000 2010 0 5000 0 1000 00 Graphs by year GDP
NOI -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 Norway 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 GDP Graphs by state
noi Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] gdp -.0440385.0469584-0.94 0.356 -.1402284.0521514 gdp2 3.02e-07 2.06e-06 0.15 0.884-3.92e-06 4.52e-06 _cons 112.0653 218.9216 0.51 0.613-336.3752 560.5058 noi Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] gdp -.0286482.0019073-15.02 0.000 -.0327688 -.0245277 gdp2 2.42e-06 1.52e-07 15.93 0.000 2.09e-06 2.75e-06 _cons 19.87237 4.744736 4.19 0.001 9.621994 30.12275 noi Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] gdp -.2275043.3081831-0.74 0.475 -.8989775.4439689 gdp2 6.63e-06 9.96e-06 0.67 0.518 -.0000151.0000283 _cons 1260.083 2238.402 0.56 0.584-3616.976 6137.143
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 445 368 344 381 300 307 284 290 221 240 79 84 67 54 64 2007년 2008년 2009년 2010년 2011년 OFDI( 신고액 ) IFDI( 도착액 ) IFDI( 신고액 ) NOI( 도착액 ) NOI( 신고액 )
Korea_IFDI_gr Korea_IFDI_gr China_IFDI_gr HK_IFDI_gr TW_IFDI_gr JP_IFDI_gr ML_IFDI_gr SG_IFDI_gr Pearson 상관계수 1.00-0.25 0.45 0.39 0.18-0.13 0.09 유의확률 ( 한쪽 ) 0.09 0.01 0.02 0.17 0.25 0.33 N 30 30 30 27 30 30 30
gdp_gr Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_gr.1113276.0171637 6.49 0.000.0776277.1450275 ofdi_gr.0529771.0155567 3.41 0.001.0224326.0835217 _cons.0364811.0054156 6.74 0.000.0258479.0471142
gdp_gr Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_gr.1675885.0269425 6.22 0.000.1145772.2205999 ofdi_gr.0608728.0209899 2.90 0.004.0195738.1021719 _cons.0377327.0087173 4.33 0.000.0205808.0548846 gdp_gr Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_gr.1636474.0316816 5.17 0.000.101334.2259608 ofdi_gr.0651021.0292991 2.22 0.027.0074748.1227295 _cons.0127632.0073804 1.73 0.085 -.0017531.0272795
gdp Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_pc.0594176.0821899 0.72 0.470 -.1019391.2207743 ofdi_pc.4623855.0696775 6.64 0.000.3255934.5991777 _cons 16320.61 372.5915 43.80 0.000 15589.13 17052.09 gdp Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_pc.8310165.2190643 3.79 0.000.4001895 1.261843 ofdi_pc 1.884735.1654908 11.39 0.000 1.559269 2.2102 _cons 8177.706 517.387 15.81 0.000 7160.177 9195.235
gdp Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_pc -.2511431.1050556-2.39 0.017 -.4577669 -.0445192 ofdi_pc.6402008.102527 6.24 0.000.4385502.8418514 _cons 21600.69 532.3482 40.58 0.000 20553.66 22647.71 gdp_gr Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_gr.0953028.1429795 0.67 0.511 -.1980669.3886724 ofdi_gr.1434482.1620338 0.89 0.384 -.1890177.4759142 _cons.0417404.060945 0.68 0.499 -.0833085.1667893
gdp_gr Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_gr.8674036.1843696 4.70 0.001.4656967 1.26911 ofdi_gr.0049319.0908421 0.05 0.958 -.1929961.2028599 _cons.0165309.0415599 0.40 0.698 -.0740205.1070822 gdp_gr Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_gr.0222388.2031696 0.11 0.915 -.4204297.4649073 ofdi_gr -.0331919.3493581-0.10 0.926 -.7943778.727994 _cons.0532781.103282 0.52 0.615 -.1717542.2783103
gdp Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_pc 5.608595 1.055653 5.31 0.000 3.446187 7.771003 ofdi_pc.8057997 1.30557 0.62 0.542-1.868538 3.480138 _cons 4988.045 643.3656 7.75 0.000 3670.17 6305.919 gdp Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_pc 41.34812 2.594449 15.94 0.000 35.74316 46.95309 ofdi_pc 10.15269 2.386645 4.25 0.001 4.996661 15.30873 _cons 516.1581 139.4269 3.70 0.003 214.9446 817.3716
gdp Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] ifdi_pc 3.948429 1.024809 3.85 0.002 1.715563 6.181295 ofdi_pc.9823272 1.016154 0.97 0.353-1.231682 3.196336 _cons 7939.438 1162.081 6.83 0.000 5407.481 10471.4