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1 : *1 ), **2 ) 15~20%., (2000 ) , %, 426.,, %(748 )1987 3~4% %, %., %, 6.3% %, 15~19 8~11%, 20~246~8%, 25~29 * **

2 3~5%.,,. (overshooting) ~ %20.9%(86 ), 20~ %(258 ), 25~29 9.3%(268 ) ,,. -.. (search effort) (intensity) (extensiveness) (job search process).,,, (zero).,,, (employment) (nonemployment)., -. 15%. 30% 20%.

3 (labor market attachment),,. -..,,,. - (nonemployment duration)..,.,, ().. (KLIPS) 3(2000 ), (nonemployment duration).. (sample separation)..,.. 1. (Korean Labor and Income Panel Survey) % (21,938) , ) 5, ,738. 1) (1999), pp.5 7

4 ,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,. 15,,,. 3 (2000 ) (,,,, ).,,,.,,.,,,,,. 2. 3,302. (sample selection process) 1,615., ( ),. (1,563 ), 1,739.,. 40 1,627.,,, 1,615. < 1>. 1, (41.2%), 950 (58.8%). 1,009 (62.5%), 315 (19.5%), 291

5 (18.0%) 37%., (33.9%), (33.2%), 531 (32.9%). 1,915 1, (censored). 1/4 345.,. < 1> 1,615 (100.0) (26.6) (41.2) (23.5) (58.8) (28.6) 170 1,009 (62.5) (27.3) (19.5) (26.8) (18.0) (24.0) (33.9) (24.8) ~ (33.2) (23.3) (32.9) (33.2) 176 :, 3 (2000). 3. (nonemployment duration). ( ) ( ).,, < 2>.,., (24 ) (18 )., 67 6, ,, 23

6 , , , , , , 2. < 2> <> (21.4) 122 (18.3) 223 (23.5) (26.7) 139 (20.9) 292 (30.7) (12.0) 69 (10.4) 125 (13.2) < > (21.3) (25.0) (10.9) (22.9) (28.6) (12.7) (19.9) (30.6) (15.1) <> (21.4) (26.6) (4.4) (20.5) (29.7) (6.2) (22.2) (23.7) (25.8) : ( ) (7.4) 48 (7.2) 71 (7.5) 58 (5.7) 31 (9.8) 30 (10.3) 38 (6.9) 35 (6.5) 46 (8.7) (9.8) 66 (9.9) 93 (9.8) 101 (10.0) 29 (9.2) 29 (10.0) 34 (6.2) 48 (9.0) 77 (14.5) (:, %) , (22.7) [316] 221 (33.2) 146 (15.4) 273 (27.1) 53 (16.8) 41 (14.1) 189 (34.5) 151 (28.2) 27 (5.1) 665 [146] 950 [170] 1009 [221] 315 [46] 291 [49] 548 [77] 536 [63] 531 [176] [ ] :, 3 (2000)

7 < 3> - (:, %) (21.4) 431 (26.7) 194 (12.0) 119 (7.4) 159 (9.8) 367 (22.7) 1,615 [316] (18.4) 76 (17.7) 42 (9.8) 21 (4.9) 39 (9.1) 173 (40.2) 430 [116] (23.0) 32 (26.2) 9 (7.4) 14 (11.5) 11 (9.0) 28 (23.0) 122 [10] (13.3) 31 (27.4) 18 (15.9) 13 (11.5) 16 (14.2) 20 (17.7) 113 [20] (23.5) 176 (30.4) 68 (11.7) 37 (6.4) 62 (10.7) 100 (17.3) 579 [105] (22.8) 58 (30.1) 31 (16.1) 17 (8.8) 18 (9.3) 25 (13.0) 193 [36] (24.2) 58 (32.6) 26 (14.6) 17 (9.6) 13 (7.3) 21 (11.8) 178 [29] (16.4) 44 (18.0) 10 (4.1) 15 (6.1) 11 (4.5) 124 (50.8) 244 [44] (18.0) 51 (23.5) 6 (2.8) 18 (8.3) 19 (8.8) 84 (38.7) 217 [28] (21.1) 44 (21.6) 53 (26.0) 15 (7.4) 36 (17.6) 13 (6.4) 204 [74] (25.3) 102 (33.6) 14 (4.6) 23 (7.6) 23 (7.6) 65 (21.4) 304 [33] (22.3) 108 (33.9) 27 (8.5) 17 (5.3) 29 (9.1) 67 (21.0) 319 [35] (22.9) 82 (25.1) : ( ) 84 (25.7) 31 (9.5) 41 (12.5) 14 (4.3) [ ] :, 3 (2000). 327 [102] 5.3 < 3>., , 24.

8 , < 2> (Type-I censoring) (duration model) T = Min(T *, c), T, T * (uncensored duration), c (censoring time). (indicator function) d = 1 () 0 ( ). Kalbfleisch Prentice (1980) t (hazard function) h(t) = lim t 0 Prob[t T < t + t T t]/ t. Prob[A] (event) A. (integrated hazards) H(t) = 0 t h(u) du. (survival function) S(t) = exp[- H(t)] = e - t 0 h ( u ) du t (failure time subdensity function) f(t) = h(t)s(t). (mixed proportional hazard model) (baseline hazard) (observed heterogeneity), (Unobserved heterogeneity),

9 h(t) = ho (t) exp(x )., ho (t) 0 (duration dependence). exp(x ) X j... (grouped duration data method) ho (t) = exp( k ) k- 1< t/w k, k=1, 2,..., K ho (0) = exp( o) k = 0. (step function), w (step length) K (the number of steps). 21. T =0 (mass point) ho (0). w=1 K= (reservation wage)..,. 1998, < 4> [1]. [1]..

10 [1] < 4> : h(t) = exp( k) exp(x ) (0.045) (0.052) (0.053) (0.050) (0.055) (0.056) (0.064) (0.065) (0.065) (0.061) (0.063) (0.063) (0.071) (0.071) (0.071) (0.073) (0.074) (0.074) (0.074) (0.074) (0.074) (0.073) (0.073) (0.073) (0.072) (0.073) (0.073) (0.075) (0.075) (0.075) (0.075) (0.075) (0.075) (0.076) (0.076) (0.076) (0.075) (0.075) (0.075) (0.050) (0.051) (0.056) (0.056) (0.058) (0.058) (0.053) (0.054) (0.051) (0.052) ( ) (0.053) (0.054) (0.051) (0.051) (0.012) (0.012) : ( )

11 [1] %4.8% 3.0%., 3~4., (negative duration dependence), (scar) (turning point).,,,,.. (- ).,.,,...,., < 5> ,,,,..,

12 .,. < 5> 1998 h(t) = exp( k) exp(x ) (0.055) (0.065) (0.065) (0.060) (0.067) (0.067) (0.078) (0.080) (0.080) (0.074) (0.077) (0.077) (0.087) (0.088) (0.088) (0.089) (0.089) (0.089) (0.090) (0.090) (0.090) (0.090) (0.091) (0.091) (0.088) (0.088) (0.088) (0.092) (0.092) (0.092) (0.092) (0.092) (0.092) (0.093) (0.094) (0.094) (0.092) (0.092) (0.092) (0.062) (0.062) (0.070) (0.070) (0.075) (0.076) (0.066) (0.066) (0.063) (0.063) ( ) (0.065) (0.065) (0.062) (0.022) (0.023) : ( ) < 6> ,,.,., 1999, ,. [2] %5.7% 4.8% %4.3% 3.0%.

13 < 6> 1998 h(t) = exp( k) exp(x ) (0.077) (0.094) (0.097) (0.091) (0.101) (0.102) (0.110) (0.113) (0.114) (0.110) (0.113) (0.113) (0.120) (0.121) (0.122) (0.130) (0.130) (0.130) (0.129) (0.129) (0.129) (0.125) (0.126) (0.126) (0.128) (0.128) (0.128) (0.130) (0.130) (0.130) (0.129) (0.129) (0.129) (0.132) (0.132) (0.132) (0.130) (0.130) (0.130) (0.090) (0.090) (0.096) (0.096) (0.094) (0.094) (0.095) (0.095) (0.094) (0.094) ( ) (0.093) (0.093) (0.017) (0.017) (0.096) (0.089) : ( ) [2] 1998

14 , (2000 ) -. 1~3..., (1998 ).,,.,,, ,., (good jobs, decent jobs), (bad jobs) (job offers). ( ) ( ) (competing risks model).

15 (accepted wage) (reservation wage)... (retrospective). -.

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