* ** ***. (18-24 ), (18-22 ), (60 ), (60 ) 4..,,, OLS VAR VEC., VEC (-)., : 2015 7 9, : 2015 9 1, : 2015 9 7 * 2.. ** () (kangsb7077@naver.com) *** (cheolsung@hanyang.ac.kr).
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號.,. 1980 1990 2000. 1980. (-) 1990. (+). (monopsony labor market). 2000. (-) (+). 1988., (Minimum Wage Council).,. 2000.. (long run effect),. (non-stationarity), (endogeneity)
... (+),..,,, OLS VAR VEC., VEC (variance decomposition) (impulse response), (-).,.. Ⅱ, Ⅲ,. Ⅳ 1988 25, Ⅴ. 1980., Brown, Giloy, and Kohen(1983), Brown(1988). Brown, Giloy, and Kohen(1983) CPS OLS GLS 10% (16 19 ) 1%. Brown(1988),
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號. 1980 10% 1~3%, Wang-Sheng Lee et al.(2011). 1990,, (+). Card(1992), Card and Krueger(1994), 1990. Card(1992) 1990 ( 州 ). Card and Krueger(1994) ( 州 ) ( 州 ). Card and Krueger Myth and Measurement (1995),...,,,. 2000 Card and Krueger(1994), Neumark and Wascher(1995, 2000). (-). Neumark and
Wascher(1995) CPS (more-skilled) (lower-skilled). Neumark and Wascher(2000) Card and Krueger(1994) (telephone survey) (payroll). 2000. 1990 Newmark et al.(2006) 1990 40, 6, 2 1990, 4 2000. 2000 Burkhauser and Couch and Wittenburg(2000), Williams and Mills(2001), Bazen and Marimoutou(2002). 1980., 2000. 10, -,. (2011), (2008), (2008). (2011) (KLIPS),,. (2008) (survey) 3.5 4.1%. (2008).
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號. (2008), (2010). (2008),.. (2010) OES 10% 1.6%, 1.1%. (2012). 3.,,. -,. (long run time series data). 10 (teenager). 10. 10. 10 20
., 20.,,.,.. [ 1] 2001 2013 ( ). - U - (age-wage profile) U. 10 20 60,., [ 1], 15 25 25, 30. (full time). 10. ( ) 18 24 ( 1) 60 ( 3), 18 22 ( 2) 60 ( 4) 4. 1) 1 2, 3 4. 1) 17,.
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號 80 70 최저임금적용률 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 이상 연령 여성 남성 :,. < 1> 4 13 (2001 2013 ), ( / ).,,. (%) (%) 1 18 24 19.6 30.9 2 18 22 21.4 34.0 3 60 30.7 19.1 4 60 47.3 11.0 9.1 24.8
Kaitz. Kaitz. t Kaitz, t (), t, i () 2), t, i, t, i 3) ( )., Kaitz (weight). Kaitz (degree) (strength). Kaitz., 0, Kaitz 0. ( ) Kaitz 2) (10 ) (Wellington(1991) ) (Brown et. al((1983), Williams et. al(2001) ).. 3)..
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號. Kaitz., Kaitz 4),. 5) Kaitz. (endogeneity), (stationarity) VAR(Vector Auto Regression). (cointegration) VAR VEC(Vector Error Correction). VEC (non-stationary) VAR. VEC, VEC.. 4) Card and Krueger(1995) Kaitz, Kaitz lag. 5) Kaitz,. Kaitz ( / ) Kaitz. Wang-Sheng Lee and Sandy Suardi(2011), (2008).
,.. 6) Kaitz ( ) 10,. Kaitz [ 2]. ( 1, 2) ( 3,4), 1988 2000 Kaitz, Kaitz.,, Kaitz. Kaitz, 2000 10,. 2000 10, 10 6) 1 3, 8 3 2007, 8 2001. 8.
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 그룹 1 그룹 2 그룹 3 그룹 4 :.. 2000 Kaitz., 2001, Kaitz, Kaitz 2008. (30~40 ) (ur_adult) 7) (pop), (enp) [ 3] [ 5]., (ur_adult) 1988 1997 1998 IMF, 1988 1996. (pop), ( 1, 2), ( 3, 4). (,, 4 ) 8) 7) (30 40 ) (ur_adult).. (30 40 ),.
9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 88 8990 91 92 9394 95 9697 98 99 0001 02 0304 05 06 0708 09 1011 12 4.0 2.0 0.0 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 그룹1 그룹2 그룹3 그룹4 :,,. :,, 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 그룹1 그룹2 :,,, IMF. (stationarity), (cointegration). VEC 8),, 4.
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號. < 2> (ep), Kaitz (kaitz), (ur_adult), (pop), (enp) (unit root test). ADF(Augmented Dickey-fuller) test PP(Phillips-Perron) test. (trend) ADF test,. (non-stationarity). (ep) Kaitz (kaitz) ADF test PP test trend trend trend trend 1-0.729** -3.543-0.857** -3.808 2-1.026** -3.538-0.75** -3.968 3-2.342** -2..632** -9.642-9.749 4-2.011** -1.884** -10.214-10.097 1-0.451** -2.506** -0.568** -2.551** 2-0.458** -2.261** -0.520** -2.840** 3-0.885** -2.455** -0.687** -2.571** 4-0.733** -2.552** -0.533** -2.525** (ur_adult) -2.065** -2.014** -2.387** -2.430** (pop) (enp) 1-1.285** -3.468-0.348** -1.925** 2-0.766** -4.089-0.357** -2.165** 3 2.400** -3.980 2.929** -3.277** 4 2.029** -2.587** 2.241** -2.570** 1-0.731** -3.014** -2.352** -8.343 2-0.652** -2.799** -1.290** -6.891 : 1) ** unit root 5%. 2) (test) (intercept), log.
Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Trace Statistic 0.05 Critical Value Prob 1 2 3 4 None * 0.312 104.138 88.804 0.003 At most 1 * 0.244 68.623 63.876 0.019 At most 2 * 0.175 42.054 42.915 0.061 At most 3 * 0.131 23.782 25.872 0.089 At most 4 0.104 10.465 12.518 0.108 None * 0.310 109.491 88.804 0.001 At most 1 * 0.269 74.294 63.876 0.005 At most 2 * 0.208 44.467 42.915 0.035 At most 3 0.140 22.309 25.872 0.130 At most 4 0.081 8.020 12.518 0.250 None * 0.271 60.891 63.876 0.087 At most 1 0.165 30.856 42.915 0.452 At most 2 0.082 13.733 25.872 0.680 At most 3 0.058 5.645 12.518 0.507 None * 0.301 88.558 63.876 0.000 At most 1 * 0.245 54.544 42.915 0.002 At most 2 * 0.223 27.857 25.872 0.028 At most 3 0.040 3.861 12.518 0.762 : 1) (intercept), (trend), 3 (seas), IMF (dimf). 2) lag AIC SC 4. 3) log... VAR VEC. < 3>. 10% 1. OLS VAR VEC.
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號 VEC (endogenous variable) (log(ep)), Kaitz (log(kaitz)), (log(ur_adult)), (log(pop)), (log(enp)), (constant), (trend), 3 (seas(2),seas(3),seas(4)), IMF (dimf). lag AIC 4. < 4> VEC (variance decomposition).,, 4 4 23%, 8 8 32%. 1 2 period log (ep_g1) log (kaitz_g1) log (ep_g2) log (kaitz_g2) 1 95.36 4.64 0.00 99.27 0.73 0.00 2 86.08 12.63 1.29 93.30 4.45 2.25 3 76.90 18.48 4.62 91.23 5.17 3.60 4 70.36 22.92 6.73 91.22 4.91 3.87 5 64.15 24.76 11.09 90.24 4.72 5.04 6 60.86 26.53 12.61 87.12 6.25 6.63 7 58.80 28.76 12.44 84.87 6.91 8.22 8 55.70 31.61 12.69 82.66 8.02 9.32 period log (ep_g3) 3 4 log (kaitz_g3) log (ep_g4) log (kaitz_g4) 1 96.83 3.17 0.00 95.88 4.12 0.00 2 97.35 2.17 0.48 93.66 5.32 1.02 3 93.26 3.59 3.15 87.63 9.37 3.00 4 91.44 4.36 4.20 84.53 11.60 3.86 5 85.05 10.28 4.66 85.50 11.45 3.04 6 81.48 10.67 7.85 82.00 14.76 3.23 7 76.68 11.50 11.82 75.94 19.34 4.72 8 73.60 12.00 14.40 72.12 23.26 4.62 : ordering log(kaitz), log(ep), log(ur), log(pop), log(enp). (residual) ( ).
Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G1) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G1) Innovation Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G2) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G2) Innovation.00.00 -.02 -.01 -.04 -.02 -.06 -.08 -.10 -.03 -.04 -.12 -.05 -.14 -.06 -.16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -.07 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G3) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G3) Innovation Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G4) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G4) Innovation.000.00 -.005 -.010 -.02 -.015 -.04 -.020 -.025 -.06 -.030 -.035 -.08 -.040 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -.10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 VEC (impulse response) [ 6]. 8 (-). 10% 8, 1 1.4%, 2 0.6%, 3 0.4%, 4-1.0% (-)., 4 (falsification test). 4 < 5>. 0 0.
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號 (%) (%) 5 30 34 1.7 73.6 6 35 39 1.7 67.8 7 40 44 2.5 57.7 8 25 29 3.5 57.8 9.1 24.8 Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G5) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G5) Innovation Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G6) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G6) Innovation.012 -.001.010 -.002.008 -.003 -.004.006 -.005.004 -.006.002 -.007 -.008.000 -.009 -.002 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -.010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G7) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G7) Innovation Accumulated Response of LOG(EP_G8) to Cholesky One S.D. LOG(KAITZ_G8) Innovation.0000.000 -.0004 -.004 -.0008 -.008 -.0012 -.012 -.0016 -.016 -.0020 -.020 -.0024 -.024 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
[ 7], 0, 5(30 34 ) (+). [ 7] [ 6]., (-). (-)., (-). VEC.,,,..,, VEC..,, (OLS) VAR VEC.
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號, VEC (-).,..,., 2014... 35 3 (2012. 12): 29-50... (2010.5): 392-409..., 2004...., 2011.. :. 31 3 (2008. 12): 1-19... 14 1 (2008. 6): 1-23...., 2008. Bazen, Stephen and Marimoutou, Velayoudom. Looking for a Needle in a Haystack? A Re-examination of the Time Series Relationship between Teenage Employment and Minimum Wages in the United States. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 64 (1) (December 2002): 699-725. Brown, Charles and Gilroy, Curtis and Kohen, Andrew. Time-Series Evidence of the Effect of the Minimum Wage on Youth Employment and Unemployment." Journal of Human Resources 18 (1) (Winter 1983): 3-31. Brown, Charles. Minimum Wage Laws: Are They Overrated? Journal of Economic
Perspectives 2 (3) (Summer 1988): 133-145. Burkhauser, Richard V. and Couch, Kenneth A.and Wittenburg, David C. Who Minimum Wage Increases Bite: An Analysis Using Monthly Data from the SIPP and the CPS. Southern Economic Journal 67 (1) (July 2000): 16-40.. A Reassessment of the New Economics of the Minimum Wage Literature with Monthly Data from the Current Population Survey. Journal of Labor Economics 18 (4) (October 2000): 653-680. Card, D. and Krueger, A. Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review 84 (4) (September 1994): 772-793.. Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage. Princeton University Press, 1995. Card, D. Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum wage. Industrial and Labor Relations Review 46 (1) (October 1992): 22-37. Neumark, David and Wascher, William. The Effects of Minimum Wages on Teenage Employment and Enrollment: Evidence from Matched CPS Surveys. NBER Working Paper 5092 (April 1995).. Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Comment. 90 (5) (December 2000): 1362-1396.. Minimum Wages and Employment: A Review of Evidence from the New Minimum Wage Research. NBER Working Paper 12633 (November 2006). Wang-Sheng Lee and Sandy Suardi. Minimum Wages and Employment: Reconsidering the Use of a Time Series Approach as an Evaluation Tool. British Journal of Industrial Relations 49 (2) (July 2011): 376-401. Wellington, A. J. Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Employment Status of Youths: An Update. The Journal of Human Resources 26 (1) (Winter 1991): 27-46. Williams, Nicolas and Mills, Jeffrey A. The minimum wage and teenage employment: evidence from time series. Applied Economics 33 (3) (February 2001): 285-300.
勞動經濟論集第 卷第 號 abstract We analyze the effect of the minimum wage on employment using time series data forr groups of individuals most affected by the minimum wage: young males (18 to 24 years old), young females (18 to 22 years old), old males (60 years and older) and old females (60 years and older). Our findings are as follows. First, a unit root test says that the variables like minimum wages and employments are non-stationary variables and they have cointegrational relations each other. It says that in this case, VEC is more suitable than OLS or VAR. Second, an increase of the minimum wage is found to have a weak but persistently negative effect on employment. Keywords : minimum wage, time series, Kaitz index, cointegration, VEC