40,800 License to Kill 2015, 1,100.. KEI 6 1,144..,. 2016 2 11 53. 6 11, 2015 7 5 9 7. 2030 70.., PM2.5 24 19μg/m³. 2015 26.5μg/m³, 25μg/m³. 10μg/m³,. 11 720 9 300. 40, 40,800..,. 2014 38.9% 2
. 1 2.29tce,, 5. 2015 1 9 4.6%, 0.72%. 2013 5... 2016, 2016 3. 2015 12 1.5 C,.....,.,,. 7.,.. 3
Chapter 1 - : Chapter 2 - Chapter 3 - : Chapter 4 - : Chapter 5-2016 Chapter 6 - Chapter 7 - :! 1-2 - 2 5 9 17 25 31 37 39 41 42 4
Chapter 1 서문: 석탄을 위한 미래는 없다 인도 자리아의 석탄광산에서 석탄을 시장에 팔기위해 준비중인 노동자의 손. 자리아는 인도 뿐만 아니라 아시아 지역에서 가장 규모가 큰 광산 중 하나이다. Greenpeace / Peter Caton 5
2015. 2014, 2015 1~9 4.6%. 1,... Airpocalypse,,,.,... 2014, 1,100.. 4 67%. 1 5.,., air apocalypse.,. 1.. 2010. 2015 30% 2 6% 3. 2015 64.4% 2016 62%. 2016 3., 2015 1,105, 2016 21%. 4 2015. 2015 36% 30. 5 Arch Coal 6 50 2012. 2016 1,.. 10~15. 2015 2.6% 0.9%. 2015 1 6 3.3% 7. 4 3,,,.. 2015 11 OECD. 500, OECD. 8 30%. 400... 33~37%, 42~43%, 45%. 6
,.. Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2015 1,105 1, 560. 23% 109. 2014 16%, 2015 4%. 2015 30% 121GW. 2015. 9.. IEA 2013 46%. 10.. 2015 12. 1.5 0. 2050 2010 40~70%, 21. 19.. 2013 7572.25Mt. 11 INDC 2030 BAU 37%. 11.3%, 25.7%. 40% 30%., 12. 12. 2014 38.9%. 13 2016 3 53, 11. 2~3 2016. 7 2029 9. 18GW 26GW 69%.. 5,., GS, SK,.,,. 2015 3, 1,100. KEI 6, LNG, 1,144. 14. 7,,,, 9., 6 13 4, 7
. 4.,,. 11 9,... 8
Chapter 2. Jung Taekyong / Greenpeace 9
2015, 53 1,100. KEI 6, LNG 1,144. 15 2029 11 9. 90%.. 2012 3.4%, 2 9.1%, 15.8%. 16. 2014 2, 2024 2010. 17, 2.. 7 11 9.., CALPUFF. 611 59. WHO. 1,02095%, 600 ~ 1550. 95% PM2.5 NO2 PM2.5 NO2 340 130 470 590 130 720 430 1110 120 30 150 260 40 300 170 440 460 160 620 850 170 1020 600 1550 350-720 100-300 300 250 200 150 100 50 9 10 9 10 1 80 60 40 20 0 0 10
/ 5,080MW / 325MW / 1,160MW / 2,080MW / 2,040MW / 400MW / 4,000MW / 1,190MW / 2,100MW / 2,100MW / 4,000MW / 2,000MW / 4,000MW / 2,000MW / 400MW / 1,000MW / 2,080MW / 3,240MW / 4,000MW / 350MW 1 / 328.6MW 1 / 500MW 1, 11
NO 170, PM 2.5 850. 9 10 250. 9 10 220, 9 10 140. pm2.5 25μg/m³ NO25μg/m³ 24 0.25616 18.065 0.075954 82.9 1 0.010833 0.74433 31469 4.9173 24 0.13759 12.282 0.029512 31.335 1 02853 0.43169 066028 1.1408, 89%. PM2.5 PM10 PM2.5, PM10, PM 24:54:80 PM...,,.. MW / SOx NOx PM 1020 9 3,342 2,234 179 1020 10 3,342 2,234 179., PM2.5 24 19μg/m³. 2015 26.5μg/m³, 25μg/ m³. 10μg/m³,.. 1050 9 4,763 2,737 500 1050 10 4,763 2,737 500 1000 1 3,848 1,934 404 1000 2 3,848 1,934 404 350 1 1,285 924 90 595 1 1,243 669 175 595 2 1,243 669 175 1000 1 3,743 1,882 262 1000 2 3,743 1,882 262 580 1 1,503 608 67 580 2 1,503 608 67 1000 1 3,603 2,589 252 18.1GW.,. 400Nm³/GJ. 1040 1 2,233 1,873 208 1040 2 2,233 1,873 208 1,040 1 2,297 1,064 260 1,040 2 2,297 1,064 260 1,050 1 1,687 2,347 235 1,050 2 1,686 2,347 235 :,, 12
13 UTM UTM 52N, UTMX UTMY m m m/s C 9 278.274 4103.851 200 7.4 27.5 91 10 278.274 4103.851 200 7.4 27.5 91 9 253.530 4087.699 150 7.3 26.4 91 10 253.530 4087.699 150 7.3 26.4 91 1 274.411 4029.479 150 7.5 26 89 2 274.411 4029.479 150 7.5 26 89 1 380.218 3855.744 150 4.8 22.96 91 1 512.996 4148.798 150 5.3 30 90 2 512.996 4148.798 150 5.3 30 90 1 530.178 4115.560 90 8.8 26.0 90 2 530.179 4115.339 90 8.8 26.0 90 1 278.863 4103.339 150 5.4 30 90 2 278.863 4103.339 150 5.4 30 90 1 274.738 4002.509 150 7.4 26 90 1 420.334 3862.689 190 7.5 26.6 90 2 420.334 3862.689 190 7.5 26.6 90 1 498.062 4176.303 100.5 7.6 26.6 101 2 498.062 4176.303 100.5 7.6 26.6 101 1 515.664 4140.038 250 7.4 30 90 2 515.664 4140.038 250 7.4 30 90 :,,.,,.. CALMET-CALPUFF. 24 18.1 13.6 9.2 4.7 0.3 0.74 0.56 0.38 0.19 0.01 24 12.3 9.2 6.2 3.2 0.1 0.43 0.32 0.22 0.11 24 19.0 14.4 9.7 0.4 0.89 0.67 0.45 0.23 0.01 PM2.5 μg/m³ PM2.5 μg/m³, PM2.5 μg/m³
.,. PM2.5 19μg/m³. 340 130 470 590 130 720 430 1110 120 30 150 260 40 300 170 440 460 160 620 850 170 1020 600 1550 : 2015 26.5μg/m³ 25μg/m³, WHO 10μg/m³ 2.6. PM2.5 NO 95%. 30 20 50 40 10 20 50 220 130 340 PM2.5 NASA SEDAC 2010 gridded population data 18 PM2.5.., 19. 20. 30 30 60 50 10 20 50 250 150 390 20 10 40 30 7 10 20 140 80 210 2 2 5 4 1 2 3 20 10 30 3 2 7 6 1 4 2 20 10 30 9 6 20 20 2 10 5 70 40 110 10 9 20 20 5 7 10 80 50 130 9 7 20 10 3 7 4 60 40 90 8 6 20 10 2 8 10 60 40 100 PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 9 10 110 50 170 160 50 220 130 340 5 4 10 10 1 7 3 40 30 60 4 3 10 9 1 6 6 40 20 60 100 70 180 140 30 70 130 720 430 1110 9 10 130 50 180 200 50 250 150 390 40 30 80 60 10 30 40 300 170 440 70 20 90 120 20 140 80 210 140 100 260 200 50 100 170 1020 600 1550 1 6 2 9 20 3 20 10 30 : 4 1 6 20 2 20 10 30 20 4 20 70 5 70 40 110 50 10 60 70 20 80 50 130 30 3 30 60 4 60 40 90 20 9 30 50 10 60 40 100 9 3 10 40 3 40 30 60 7 5 10 40 6 40 20 60 14
. Jung Taekyong / Greenpeace 15
Chapter 3 4 -..,.,,.,...,. Chapter 3 4. 16
Chapter 3 건설 중인 석탄화력발전소의 건강영향 인천시 옹진군 영흥면에 위치한 영흥석탄화력발전소 굴뚝에서 연기가 뿜어져 나오고 있는 것을 한 지역주민이 바라보고 있다. Greenpeace / Jean Chung 17
1. 500MW 8. 1,020MW 9, 10. 2 2016 6,040MW. 9 10 9 10,,, 24 0.073~5.608μg/m³, 2~0.208μg/m³. 24 0.038~6.991μg/m³, 1~0.297μg/m³. 29, 10 MW 2,040 220 9 10 220. 160, 50. 40 9 10 8,800... 9 10 PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 110 50 170 160 50 220 130 340 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 9 10 9 10 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 18
2. 500MW 8, 1,100MW 9, 10. 2 2016 6,100MW. 9 10 9 10 24 0.073~7.36μg/m³, 2~0.41μg/m³. 24 0.043~8.409μg/m³, 1~0.384μg/m³. 29, 10 MW 2,100 250 9 10 250. 180, 50. 40 10,000... 9 10 PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 130 50 180 200 50 250 150 390 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 9 10 9 10 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 19
3.. 500MW 8, 1,000MW 1, 2. 6,000MW. 1 2 1 2 24 0.095~6.465μg/m³, 1~0.196μg/m³. 24 0.03~19.203μg/m³, 05~0.622μg/m³. 21, 2 MW 2,000 140 1 2 140. 120, 20. 40 5,600... PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 70 20 90 120 20 140 80 210 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 1 2 1 2 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 20
4. 328.6MW 1, 350MW 1. 1 678.6MW. 1 1, 24 5~1.797μg/m³, 008~0.045μg/m³. 24 2~2.855μg/m³, 002~0.118μg/m³. 11 MW 350 20 1 20. 20, 3. 40 800... 1 PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 6 2 9 20 3 20 10 30 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 1 1 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 21
5. 200MW 2, GS 595MW 1 2. 2 1,590MW. 1 2 1 2, 24 4~3.847μg/m³, 003~0.106μg/m³. 24 3~6.401μg/m³, 004~0.189μg/m³. GS 21, 2 MW 1,190 20 1 2 20. 20, 2. 40 800... PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 4 1 6 20 2 20 10 30 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 1 2 1 2 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 22
6.. 1,000MW 2, 2,000MW. 1 2 1 2 24 0.015~17.761μg/m³, 01~0.564μg/m³. 24 4~84.583μg/m³, 006~98μg/m³. 21, 2 MW 2,000 70 1 2 70. 70, 5. 40 2,800... PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 20 4 20 70 5 70 40 110 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 1 2 1 2 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 23
. Greenpeace / Jean Chung 24
Chapter 4. Kemal Jufri / Greenpeace 25
1. 7 580MW 2.. 84,000MW, 9 10 6,040MW. 7,200MW.. 21, 2 MW 1,160 80 1 2 80. 70, 20. 40 3,200...,,, 24 0.032~2.504μg/m³, 1~0.089μg/m³. 24 0.01~1.901μg/m³, 03~0.081μg/m³. 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 1 2 1 2 PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 50 10 60 70 20 80 50 130 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 26
2. 1,000MW 1. 1. 1,400MW.,,,, 24 0.032~5.169μg/m³, 05~0.214μg/m³. 24 6~11.724μg/m³, 01~0.196μg/m³. 11 MW 1,000 60 60. 60, 2. 40 2,400... PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 30 3 30 60 4 60 40 90 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 1 2 1 2 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 27
3. 1,040MW 2. 63,240MW. 5,320MW.,,, 24 0.019~3.298μg/m³, 02~0.089μg/m³. 24 0.015~10.639μg/m³, 01~0.453μg/m³. 21, 2 MW 2,080 60 60. 50, 10. 40 2,400... PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 20 9 30 50 10 60 40 100 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 1 2 1 2 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 28
4. 1,040MW 2. 2, 325MW. 2,405MW.,, 24 6~11.782μg/m³, 004~0.33μg/m³. 24 4~10.391μg/m³, 006~0.637μg/m³. 21, 2 MW 2,080 40 40. 40, 3. 40 1,600... PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 9 3 10 40 3 40 30 60 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 1 2 1 2 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 29
5. 1,050MW 2. 2, 2,000MW. 4,100MW., 24 5~6.317μg/m³, 005~0.169μg/m³. 24 7~33.623μg/m³, 01~0.196μg/m³. 21, 2 MW 2,100 40 40. 40, 7. 40 1,600... PM2.5 NO PM2.5 NO 95% 7 5 10 40 7 40 30 60 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 0.56 0.42 0.28 0.14 24 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 1 2 1 2 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 30
Chapter 5 2016년 한국의 석탄화력발전소 현황 인천시 옹진군 영흥면에 위치한 영흥석탄화력발전소 앞에서 그린피스 활동가들이 현장 조사활동을 벌이고 있다. Greenpeace / Jean Chung 31
2016 11 53. 6 11. 2015 7 5, 9.. 1 200 2 200 1 250 2 250 400 500 2016 1 1 200 2 200 400 MW MW 1 500 2 500 1 560 2 560 3 560 4 560 3,240 3 500 4 500 5 500 6 500 4,000 5 500 7 500 6 500 8 500 1 800 2 800 1 500 2 500 3 870 4 870 5 870 5,080 3 500 4 500 5 500 4,000 6 870 6 500 2 328.6 328.6 7 500 1 125 2 200 325 8 500 1 500 1 500 2 500 2 500 3 500 3 500 4 500 5 500 4,000 4 500 5 500 6 500 4,000 6 500 7 500 7 500 8 500 8 500 MW 26,273.6 32
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 / 5,080MW / 325MW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 / 4,000MW 1 2 / 400MW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 / 4,000MW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 / 4,000MW 1 2 / 400MW 1 2 3 4 5 6 / 3,240MW 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 / 4,000MW 1 / 328.6MW 1 2 / 500MW 2016 1 33
2016 1 1 2 / 1,190MW 9 10 / 2,040MW 1 2 / 2,000MW 9 10 / 2,100MW 1 2 / 2,000MW 1 / 350MW MW MW 9 1020 10 1020 9 1050 10 1050 1 1000 2 1000 2,040 2,100 2,000 1 350 350 GS 1 595 2 595 1 1000 2 1000 1,190 2,000 MW 9,680 34
7 1 2 / 2,080MW 1 2 / 2,100MW 1 2 / 1,160MW 1 / 1,000MW 1 2 / 2,080MW MW MW 1 580 2 580 1,160 1 1000 1,000 1 1040 2 1040 1 1,040 2 1,040 1 1,050 2 1,050 2,080 2,080 2,100 MW 8,420 35
,, Jeanschwalde. Chris Grodotzki / Greenpeace 36
Chapter 6,..? Clean Coal Technology. SOx, NOx,,, CO Carbon Capture & Storage, CCS..,,.,. 2012 NOx 9.1%, SOx 15.9%, 3.4%., 5,402 32,467, 58,879. 24 18μg/m³, 24 12μg/m³. 40 40,800... 37
,. Subcritical 33~37%, Supercritical 42~43%, Ultra-Supercritical 45%. 15~20%. 2, 20~80. 21,.. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle, IGCC 50%.,. 22 Circulating fluidized Bed Combustion, CFBC,. 23,. 24 Carbon Capture & Storage, CCS CCS..,.,. 25~40%. 38
Chapter 7 ''! 1.. 11 53, 6 11. 2015 7 5 9. 2029 70. 44GW.. 11 40 28,800, 9 12,000..,.. 2015.,. 655, 619. 2016.,, 2... 39
2.. 3... LNG.. 2014 38.9% 6. 1 2.29tce,, 5. 2014, 1.5% 8,369GWh. 2015 7 2029 32.3%, 4.6%.. 2030 BAU 37% 25.7%. 10~12....,. 2013.,,,... 2.. 6, 23. 25..., 47%. 46.9%, 29.1%, 24.0%,....,,. 2,.. 40
1 - CALPUFF 2015 6 7,. CALPUFF, ' Guideline on Air Quality Models '. CALPUFF 3 CSIRO TAPM. TAPM CSIRO. TAPM CALTAPM CALPUFF CALMET, CALPUFF CALMET. CALPUFF CALMET. 3,,,, - Monin-Obukhov,,,,,,. CSIRO TAPM. TAPM 50 50 nested grids, 30km, 10km, 2.5km, 35. 11 2013 CALPUFF 10km 10km - 2.5km 2.5km. 3.3km. 30km 30km. 1,. 11. Geos-Chem CALPUFF. 9, H O. CALPUFF NO, NO, NO, HNO POSTUTIL. PM2.5 NASA SEDAC 2010 gridded population data 26 PM2.5.. NO, 27. 28. PM2.5 67%., 20 g/m³.. 2030, 29. 41
2 -, 47%.... 2015 12 18~25. 19 600,,,. 95% 4.0%.. 46.9% 282. 29.1% 175, 24.0%. 63.0%, 22.5%, 8.7%. 46.2%, 39.2%, 3.3%. 24.0 46.9 29.1 42
1 Greenpeace International, Coals Terminal Decline, Nov. 2015, http://www.greenpeace.org/international/global/international/ publications/climate/2015/coals-terminal-decline.pdf 2 UPDATE 1-China 2015 coal imports plunge 30 pct on demand slump, Reuters, 12.01.2016. http://www.reuters.com/article/chinaeconomy-trade-coal-idusl3n14x1tc20160113 3 Beijing air quality improved in 2015 despite pollution alerts, authorities say, Guardian, 01.2016 http://www.theguardian. com/environment/2016/jan/05/beijing-air-quality-improved-in- 2015-despite-pollution-alerts-authorities-say 4 Bloomberg, China to Halt New Coal Mine Approvals Amid Pollution Fight, Dec. 30. 2015, http://www.bloomberg.com/ news/articles/2015-12-30/china-to-suspend-new-coal-mineapprovals-amid-pollution-fight 5 Greenpeace International, Coals Terminal Decline, Nov. 2015, http://www.greenpeace.org/international/global/international/ publications/climate/2015/coals-terminal-decline.pdf 6 The Wall Street Journal, Arch Coal Files for Bankruptcy, 12.Jan.2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/arch-coal-files-forbankruptcy-1452500976 7 h t t p://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/statistics/electric_power/ep002/ results.html#headline1 8 OECD, Statement from Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, http://www.oecd.org/ newsroom/statement-from-participants-to-the-arrangementon-officially-supported-export-credits.htm 9 Bloomberg, As Oil Crashed, Renewables Attracted Record $329 Billion, 14.Jan.2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/ articles/2016-01-14/renewables-drew-record-329-billion-inyear-oil-prices-crashed 10 International Energy Agency, 2015 World Energy Statistics, 2015, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/ key-world-energy-statistics-2015.html 11 International Energy Agency, 2015 World Energy Statistics, 2015, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/ key-world-energy-statistics-2015.html 12, 10 37%, Oct.2015. 13, 2015, 2016, http://www.keei.re.kr/ main.nsf/index_en.html?open&p=%2fmain.nsf%2fmain_en.htm l&s= 14,,, Nov. 2015 15, 16, 2012, 2015, http://airemiss.nier.go.kr/nape/statistics/airpollution/ pollutants/retrieve.jsp?mm=2&sm=1&ssm=1 17, 2, 2014 18 http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/gpw-v3-populationcount-future-estimates 19 http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-andhealth/air-quality/activities/health-aspects-of-air-pollutionand-review-of-eu-policies-the-revihaap-and-hrapie-projects 20 http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/ estimates/en/index1.html 21 Energy Policy, V. 36, Valuing the Greenhouse Gas emissions from nuclear Power: a critical survey, Benjamin K. sovacool, 2008 22,,, 2014, 10, 01. http://www.etnews.com/20140930000169 23,, 2015 24,, 2015 25 M.J.Yeo, Y.P.Kim, Sensitivity of the environmental costs of air pollution caused by SOx, NOx, and PM from power plants applied to the power mix configuration in South Korea, Air Qual Atmos Health, 2015, 26 http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/gpw-v3-populationcount-future-estimates 27 http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-andhealth/air-quality/activities/health-aspects-of-air-pollutionand-review-of-eu-policies-the-revihaap-and-hrapie-projects 28 http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/ estimates/en/index1.html 29 http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/ projections/en/ 43
enquiry.kr@greenpeace.org Minwoo Son Lauri Myllyvirta, 2016 3 257 6 04322 +82. 2. 3144. 1994 +82. 2. 6455. 1995 WWW.GREENPEACE.ORG/KOREA.,.,. 1971, 52,,,.. Greenpeace / Jean Chung