4 차산업혁명, 인간과로봇의미래 (The 4 th Industrial Revolution - Future of Humans and Machines 제 84 회 KISTEP 수요포럼 KISTEP 12 층국제회의실, 2018. 4. 25( 수 ) 10:00-12:00 장병탁 (Byoung-Tak Zhang) 서울대학교컴퓨터공학부및인지과학 / 뇌과학협동과정인지로봇인공지능연구센터 (CRAIC) http://bi.snu.ac.kr/
목차 1. 인공지능과 4차산업혁명.............. 3 AI 패러다임변화, 딥러닝, 디지털트랜스포메이션 2. AI 로봇 : 4차산업혁명시대의신산업.... 19 퍼스널로봇, 패밀리, 홈, 고객, 교육, 헬스서비스 3. 로봇과인간의공진화 : 협력, 경쟁, 공생... 33 지능특이점, 친구, 적, 동반자, 미래사회에의영향 4. 인간과로봇의미래............ 46 2
1. 인공지능과 4 차산업혁명
인공지능 (AI) 개념 인공지능 (AI): 사람처럼생각하고사람처럼행동하는기계 ( 컴퓨터, SW, 로봇 ) 사람이기계보다잘하는일을기계가할수있도록하는연구 지능을필요로하는일을기계가할수있도록하는연구 1950: Turing Test, 1956: Artificial Intelligence (AI) 약인공지능 (Weak AI), 강인공지능 (Strong AI), 범용인공지능 (AGI) 머신러닝 (ML): 학습을통해서인공지능시스템을자동으로개발하는기술 딥러닝 (DL): 신경망기반의머신러닝모델의일종. 많은층을가진복잡한신경망 4
AI 역사 1950-1970: 태동기 튜링의사고기계제안 (1950), 인공지능탄생 (1956) 열정, 과열, 냉각 (1960-1970) 1970-1990: 제 1 차 AI 산업화 IJCAI 학회창립 (1969), AAAI 학회창립 (1980) 지식기반전문가시스템 (1980-1989) 의산업화 5 세대컴퓨터프로젝트와 AI 빙하기 ( AI Winter ) 1990-2010: 과학적방법론의도입 신경망 (1986) 과머신러닝연구 베이지안넷 (1990) 과확률적추론연구 지능형에이전트 (1995) 연구와로보컵 (1997) 2010- 현재 : 제 2 차 AI 산업화 인터넷 / 웹 / 모바일데이터와머신러닝의산업화 자율주행차, 왓슨, 시리 (2011) 딥러닝의기술의산업화 (2012- 현재 ) IBM Deep Blue Chess Machine Beats Human Champion (1997) 2018 Byoung-Tak Zhang, Seoul National University 5
AI 연구패러다임변화 ~ 1985 ~ 기호주의 AI (1 세대 ) 합리론, 연역추론 분석적, 논리적 시스템 2 (Kahneman) 명제적 / 언어적표현 사고과정, 하향식 가설 / 지식기반 추론시스템 ( 전문가 ) ~ 2015 ~ 연결주의 AI (2 세대 ) 경험론, 귀납추론 직관적, 확률적 시스템 1 (Kahneman) 이미지 / 시각적표현 지각과정, 상향식 센서 / 데이터기반 학습시스템 ( 딥러닝 ) 인지주의 AI ( 차세대 ) 구성론, 동적추론 분석 + 직관, 동역학적 시스템 1 + 시스템 2 시각언어적표현 행동과정, 상향 + 하향식 가설 + 데이터결합적 인지시스템 ( 로봇 ) [Zhang, 2018] 인간지능과기계지능 : 인지주의인공지능, 정보과학회지, 36(1): 27-36, 2018. [PDF] 2018 Byoung-Tak Zhang, Seoul National University 6
AI 최근성공사례 Thinking Machines DeepBlue Chess Machine (1997) IBM Watson Quiz Show (2011) DeepMind AlphaGo (2016) Self-Driving Cars RHINO Museum Tour Guide (1997) DARPA Grand Challenge (2005) Google Self-driving Car (2011) Smart Assistants Apple Siri Personal Assistant (2011) Amazon Echo & Alexa (2014) Google Home & Assistant (2016) 7
AI / Deep Learning Growth AlphaGo 2016 8
[ 장교수의딥러닝, 홍릉과학출판사, 2017] 딥러닝 AI 기술
Future: 4 th Industrial Revolution & Digital Transformation
디지털트랜스포메이션 @ Logistics Amazon Robotics UPS Chatbot 11
디지털트랜스포메이션 @ Manufacturing GE Digital Predix Siemens MindSphere FANUC Preferred Networks 12
디지털트랜스포메이션 @ Healthcare Digital Health Digital Medicine Digital Doctor 13
디지털트랜스포메이션 @ Education
디지털트랜스포메이션 @ Commerce Salesforce Einstein SAP Chatbots 15
디지털트랜스포메이션 @ Home Google Apple Samsung SmartThings LG Smart ThinQ 16
디지털트랜스포메이션 @ Service Relay Hotel Delivery Robot Pepper Service Robot 17
디지털트랜스포메이션 @ Shopping Pepper @ Westfield
2. AI 로봇 : 4 차산업혁명시대의 신산업
AI 로봇의등장 Mobile Robots 1999 Sony Aibo pet dog 2004 Robot Car Challenge 2008 Aldebaran Nao 2009 Willow Garage PR2 2010 Child robot icub 2012 ROS Foundation Personal Assistants 2011 Siri (Apple) 2012 Now (Google) 2014 Cortana (Microsoft) 2016 Assistant (Google) 2017 Bixby (Samsung) Assistant Robots 2014 Echo (Amazon) 2015 Pepper (SoftBank) 2016 RoboHon (Sharp) 2016 Home (Google) 2016 Nugu (SKT) 2017 Hub (LG) 2017 Jibo (MIT) 20
Smart Speakers Amazon Echo Google Home SKT Nugu 21
Family Robots Jibo (MIT) Family Robot Buddy (Blue Frog Robotics)
Personal Service Robots RoboHon (Sharp) Smartphone Robot
Customer Service Robots Relay Hotel Delivery Robot Pepper Service Robot 24
RoboCup@Home 2017 (SNU) AUPAIR (SNU & Surromind Robotics) Winning the RoboCup@Home 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2zjtpbmwsq http://mnews.joins.com/article/21823070#home [Lee et al., AAAI-2018] [Lee et al., ICRA-2018]
Home Service Robots PR1 Robot Cleans a Room PR2 Fetches Beer (Willow Garage) PR2 Making Popcorns (TU Munich) SpotMini (Boston Dynamics) 26
Office / Hospital Service Robots Care-O-bot 4 (Fraunhofer)
Health Care Robots Robots and Autism Elderly Healthcare Robot
Educational / Toy Robots Robots for Games, Fun, and Learning
Recent Robots in Exhibition Innorobo 2016 (Paris) 5 Cool Family Robots in 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= 1SjxQzPl7SQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v =gqxp8gxioeq 30
Human-Like Robots Humanoid Robot Nao (Aldebaran) Life-Like Robots (Hanson Robotics) Emotion Robot Pepper (SoftBank) Atlas (Google Boston Dynamics) 31
AI 로봇 4 차산업혁명시대의먹거리 Cognitive Smart Machines Body (HW, Device) Mind (SW, Data) 32
3. 로봇과인간의공진화 : 협력, 경쟁, 공생
2009, SNU Biointelligence Lab, http://bi.snu.ac.kr/ Rise of the Robots 34
Singularity 35
Superintelligence 36
Robots Living with Humans 37
로봇과인간 : 친구, 적, 동반자 Her (2013) Robot & Frank (2012) Bicentennial Man (1999) Ex Machina (2015) 38
미래사회에의영향
Automation & Robots Farm Work Mechanization Factory Work Industrial robots Service Work Service robots Knowledge Work AI robots 40
Trust Autonomy Self-generated goals Intention Agency Free will 41
Unemployment 42
Inequality 43
Threats to Human Race Stephen Hawking AI could spell the end of the human race Killer robots with AI must be banned Bill Gates Steve Wozniak Elon Musk 44
AI 100 Project Elon Musk donates $10M for research on beneficial and robust AI (Future Life Institute, MIT, 2015) The AI100 Project 100-Year Study on AI (Stanford University, Harvard, MSR, 2015) 45
4. 인간과로봇의미래
Behaviorism Humans (NI) and Robots (AI) Mind (= Computer) Symbolism Expert Systems 1950 s 1980 s Brain Connectionism Neural Networks 1980 s 2010 s Body (Neo)Cognitivism Autonomous Robots 2010 s Environment Embodied Mind Mind Machine ( = Smart Machine) 47
AI 로봇 4 차산업혁명시대신산업 Cognitive Smart Machines Body (HW, Device) Mind (SW, Data) 48
Technology Real (Robots) AI with Deep Learning Virtual (Agents) Narrow AI 1980 Follows given goals and methods Future Cognitive AI 1990 2010 2020 Superhuman AI Human-Level AI Agency Works out own goals, learns continually Works out own methods, follows given goals 2030 Free Will Time 2050 Modified from Eliezer Yudkowsky & David Wood 49