Curret Issues i busiess 업계에서만요란한 3D TV, " 아직갈길멀다 2

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1 Chapter 1. Itroductio

2 Curret Issues i busiess 업계에서만요란한 3D TV, " 아직갈길멀다 2

3 Techology Forecastig - Myth v "Heavier-tha-air flyig machies are impossible" - Lord Kelvi, Presidet, Royal Society, 1895 v "Everythig that ca be iveted has bee iveted" - Charles Duell, Commissioer, USOP, v "There is o reaso ayoe would wat a computer i their home - Ke Olse, CEO of Digital Equipmet, v "640K ought to be eough for aybody" - Bill Gates, v trasistor desity of semicoductor chips would double roughly every 18 moths - Gordo Moore,

4 Techology Differece - Joke At a recet COMDEX, Bill Gates compared "Computer" with "Auto" Idustry ad stated: 'if GM had kept up with techology like MS has, we would all be drivig $25 car that rus 1000 miles per gallo'. I respose, GM issued a press release statig: 'if GM had developed techology like MS, we would all be drivig cars with the followig characteristics: for o reaso whatsoever, your car would crash twice a day, every time they pait the lies o the roads, you would have to buy a ew car, GM would require all car buyers to also purchase a deluxe set of McNally road maps, Every time GM itroduces a ew model, buyers would have to lear how to drive all over agai. 4

5 Iovator s Dilemma v Failure of excellet compaies Reaso: icapable to respose to disruptive techological iovatio which might brig about trasformatio of idustrial structure Customer-orieted ad profit-orieted resource allocatio Success-orieted ad large scale-favored characteristics of large compaies Sustaiig vs. Disruptive techological iovatio ex: IBM, Apple, Xerox etc v Dilemma of excellet compaies Factors capacity weight time Cost/MB Margi 8 drive sec $ 50 40% 5.25 drive sec $ % The more iovative compay is, the greater the likelihood of failure The less iovative compay is, the greater the likelihood of failure 5

6 Discussios v LG 전자의휴대폰사업이삐걱이기시작한것은그리오래되지않았다. 휴대폰출하물량으로세계 3 위의자리를지키는것에는문제가없었지만, 많이팔아도남는것이없는장사를한것이다. 지금도 LG 전자휴대폰은세계각지에서여전히잘팔리고있다. 실적부진의원인으로모두들스마트폰전략의부재를꼽는데는주저함이없다. 경쟁사삼성전자가늦었지만특유의민첩함으로스마트폰시장에올인하는모습을보이는동안 LG 전자는망설이는모습을계속보였다. 쟁쟁한경쟁사들이하나같이스마트폰을전략폰으로내놓을때 LG 전자는디자인과감성을강조하는전략을밀어붙였다. ( 이하생략 ) LG 전자 MC 사업본부의위기의원인은무엇이고, 앞으로어떻게이를해결해야할까? 6

7 Discussios v 안드로이드탑재제안거부 ( 대만 HTC 선정 -> 스마트폰세계 4 위 ) v 자체기술력에대한자만 ( 프라다 KE850 폰이아이폰에필적할것이라고예상 ) v 2009 년에도디자인과감성을메인스트림으로가져가고구색갖추기수준의 Widows Mobile 폰만내놓음 v 삼성전자가 Apple 과의대결에서소프트웨어보다는하드웨어를강조 (iphoe 과 Adroid 폰양강구도로몰아감 ) v 새로운생태계에부적응 Hardware Software Busiess Model IT 생태계 Cotets Service Market Place 7

Defiitio v Techology Iovatio The process by which techological ideas are geerated, developed, ad trasferred ito ew busiess products, processes ad services that are used to make a profit ad a

8 Defiitio v Techology Iovatio The process by which techological ideas are geerated, developed, ad trasferred ito ew busiess products, processes ad services that are used to make a profit ad a marketplace advatage (Mogee) The outcome of the iovatio process, which ca be defied as the combied activities leadig to ew, marketable products ad services ad/or ew productio ad delivery systems (Burgelma) Cf) Techology Maagemet: likage of egieerig, sciece, ad maagemet disciplies to address the plaig, developmet, ad implemetig of techological capabilities 8

9 Defiitios vsciece vtechology vivetio viovatio vdiffusio vtechology maagemet 9

10 vsciece Defiitios Systematic ad formulated kowledge vtechology Applicatio of sciece vivetio Creatig or devisig of ew ideas viovatio Commercial applicatio of ivetios vdiffusio Uptake ad spreadig of iovatios vtechology maagemet Likig techology to busiess objectives 10

11 Chracteristics v Compariso of similar cocepts v Examples Sciece, Techology, Egieerig Ivetio, Iovatio, Diffusio Developed atios vs. Developig atios 방적기 (1770), 증기기관 (1769), 철강 (1856), 자동차 (1908), 인터넷장영실상중대통령상 2002 삼성전자 40 TFI-LCD TV, 2001 기아자동차승용디젤엔진 돌리와영롱이? v Types of Iovaito Degree of chage Trasformatio Radical Icremetal Product Service Process 11 Cotets of chage

12 Importace (1/3) v Examples: a sewig machie 1790 ( 영국 ) Sait 1841 ( 프랑스 ) Thimoier Ivetio Patet to sew leather 1 st Prototype 8 대제품생산봉제사와재단사봉기로실패 상업화이후 Siger vs. Grover ad Baker 2 대경쟁구도 1845 ( 미국 ) Howe d Prototype 두개바늘로실두개가엮이도록설계 2 대제품생산, 자금조달실패 Mass productio 1856 가격경쟁 카르텔 Howe $4,000/ 일로열티를획득, 사업시작 1849 Icremetal iovatio 1877 지배제품선정 (Siger) 1851 Siger Cotiuous cloth feed ad others Commercial success Low cost, sturdy, foot treadle 12 Thousads of patets issued i 10 years May small competitors

13 Importace (2/3) v Examples: a sewig machie Log time from ivetio to commercial success Icremetal iovatio after radical iovatio Iequality about techological ivetio ivetor vs. ivestor Troubles i itellectual property (imitatio of techology) Chage of leadership i a poit of techological trasformatio Package of icremetal iovatio Techological iovatio from past ability Domiat desig ad techological trajectory Various techology opportuities Ex. Directio of wheel developmet i evolutio of airplaes Ivasio of other techologies The itroductio of CRT ad computer techology i mechaic idustry 13

14 Importace (3/3) v Techological iovatio as a driver for ehaced competitiveess Icrease i the ratio of ew products More tha the 1/3 of reveue Reiforcemet of competitio due to globalizatio Product iovatio: profit creatio by providig ew ad differetiated products Process iovatio: efficiecy improvemet i creatio of product ad services Acceleratio of techological iovatio through IT CAD/CAM system: efficiecy improvemet of desigig ad producig ew products Flexible Maufacturig System: Maufacturig customizatio Toyota: 18 brad, 48 car model Nokia: 80 models wireless phoes Soy: 50 models of portable audio players Results: reductio of product life cycle, more segmeted market 14

15 Recogitio o strategic importace v Chage ad growth of techological paradigm Itroductio of ew techology i a short time Huge ivestmet ad high risk i R&D Growig iterdepedece of fields of techology v Chage of relatioship betwee techology ad ecoomy Techology as a edogeous variable v Chage of social eeds o techology More attetio to social welfare ad eviromet Short product life cycle ad icreasig variety v Chage of techology acuquisitio Iteratioalizatio & globalizatio New modes such as strategic alliaces 15

Iovatio of Compaies v New product developmet Selectio of R&D projects Appropriate projects to resources ad objectives of a compay Relevat projects cosiderig developmet period ad

16 Iovatio of Compaies v New product developmet Selectio of R&D projects Appropriate projects to resources ad objectives of a compay Relevat projects cosiderig developmet period ad success possibility Iovatio Fuel Caused by techological feasibility ad commercial success Medicie idustry: 1 successful commercializatio amog 10,000 possible ideas, 12 years, $350 millio 16

17 Iovatio of Compaies v Iovatio i a risky eviromet Waste of several billio $ of America compaies i 1980s due to wrog iovatio methods Just 1 commercial success of 3000 ideas 16% Timely completio of projects i S/W areas 80% ideas from customers ideas 90% of products fails i 4 years ad less tha 10% of compaies ca itroduce ew products for previous 10 years 17

18 Iovatio of Compaies v Research of Griffi o time of ew product developmet Subject: 116 B-to-B compaies Results: Various developmet cycle accordig to the degree of iovatio of projects Icremetal improvemet: 8.6 moths from cocept to market itroductio Next-geeratio improvemet: 22 moths New-to-the-firm: 36 moths New-to-the-world: 53 moths Shorteig developmet cycle More tha a half of compaies have reduced 33% of product developmet cycle for the previous 5 years 18

19 Techology evolutio v Cars How may types (power, format ) ow? How may types (power, format ) 1900? v Persoal computer operatig systems How may i 1980? How may ow? 19

20 Evolutio of the car Steam Electricity Liquefied air Electric / petrol hybrid 20

21 Before Widows 21

22 Key framework: The idustry life cycle Era of Fermet/ Disruptio Maturity Domiat desig - stadards Icremetal Iovatio Hederso,

23 Display devices vwhat has bee the domiat techology for past 50+ years? 23

24 Performace Display techologies OLED-LEP LCD CRT Time / Ivestmet / Effort 24

25 Performace Chage ad ucertaity Techology discotiuity Turbulece Adapted from Bower & Christese (1995) Time / Ivestmet / Effort 25

26 Pull ad push vtechology push Drive by supply side vmarket pull Drive by the demad side vis oe better tha the other? Soy Walkma Telegraph ad telephoe Post-It Chroometer (reliable timekeeper) Atibiotics 26

27 What type of people buy ew techology products? Example

28 Buyer Types % of total market Iovators 2.5% Early Adopters 13.5% Early Majority 34% Late Majority 34% Laggards 16% MOORE S CHASM Techies Visioaries Pragmatists Coservatives Sceptics Source: Moore (1998) ad Rogers (1995) 28 Time

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12월16일자.hwp 동 향 제 25 권 23호 통권 568호 ICT 제품 및 서비스의 수명주기 단축과 BIG-BANG Disruption의 등장 33) 김민식 * 정원준 ** 1. ICT 제품 및 서비스의 수명주기(Life Cycle) 단축 현상 최근 내비게이션 국내 시장 규모 1) 는 지난 2010년을 정점으로 매년 15~20%씩 줄어 드는 추세로, 거치형과 매립형, 순정제품을