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1 21 ETRI

2 .. ( ), (, 2002 ). 1 : 2 : 3 : ( ) 1 ( download) 1 ( ), 1 1 ( ) ( ) 1 ( ) 1 (TOEIC, TOEFL, TEPS ) 1 ( ) eakang@etri.re.kr Tel : 042) Fax : 042)

9.3.~9.15. 9.3.~9.15., ( ),,,, ( ),,, 9.17.

3 9.3.~ ~9.15., ( ),,,, ( ),,, 9.17.~ ~ (, ) ~11.5 *. *.

4 ,,,, VLSI (VLSI ),,,, RF/ ( ASIC ) /, / (ATM) VLSI, /,,,, /,,, Digital,,,, / (ATM), MAC VLSI IMT-2000,,, VLSI Pattern,,,, Graphics, /,,,,,,,,, Remote Sensing,

5 ,, ( ) : ( ) 09:00 ~ 18:00, () 09:00 ~ 13:00 2,4 : 12 ~ 33, :,, : () :. : : :

6 Predicting the Future Long term Vision 10 Year Vision of Telecommunications ETRI s R&D Strategy 6

7 Predicting the future Today s success is only 15(7) months from failure Extrapolation and Wrong predictions Recency bias Every American women will be a telephone operator Everyone will be a programmer 640K memory will be enough 300bps will be enough for data communication 7

8 Is it possible to predict the future? Fortune teller Stock market 8

9 Long Term Vision Ubiquitous Network Ubiquitous Computing Increased bandwidth between humans and machines 9

10 The trouble with technology visions Popular technology visions often overestimate nearterm prospects... But they underestimate long-term developments. Impact of technology Time 10

11 Technology costs less, content costs more Although the costs of digital-media technologies are falling, the cost of programming and the talent that creates it is rising even faster. Cost Cost of media production Bandwidth Data storage Data processing Time 11

12 Technology trends Authority driven Technology driven Market driven 12

13 Five Discontinuities 13

14 The 4 Discontinuities Copernicus Earth is a star Darwin Human was a monkey Freud Actions are made by subconcious mind Minsky Brain is a computer 14

15 The 5th Discontinuity Reeves & Naas Mediated Reality = Natural Reality 15

16 Digital Being Virtual Being Avatar 16

17 10 Year Vision of Telecommunications Ubiquitous Access Network Home Network Wireless Optical Network Cyber Communication 17

18 Communication and Computer 3M to 3G 1Mips Workstation, 1M memory, 1Mbps Ethernet for Engineer New HCI Increased productivity 3G for everyone 1GHz PC now 1G memory 1Gbps network Increased QoL 18

19 Backbone Traffics 3~6 2 ( Tbps, ,500Tbps) 4~6 2 ( Gbps, Tbps) 250Tbps 1Tbps 850 IP, OC- 192, OC-768 WDM 19

20 Internet Hop Distribution 20

21 Capacity Growth on Single Fiber 21

22 Evolution of IP Routers 22

23 Optical Internet IP ATM Frame TDM Service Creation Aggregation Service Routers IP/MPLS Service Layer Optical Core SONET DWDM SONET DWDM SONET DWDM SONET DWDM Optical Transport Layer Access Metro Long Haul Metro Access 23

24 Road Map

25 ETRI 25

26 ~20Mbps Mbps : 2005 VDSL 20Mbps : 2005 PON, GbE 155Mbps~ 1Gbps 26

27 2005 : : ~ Mbps : DTV (10Mbps), 27

28 28

29 Micro Webserver zip 100 Micro Webserver zip 100 Micro Webserver zip 100 Micro Webserver zip 100 OXC OXC OXC DWDM OXC OXC Terabit Router OADM ONU ONIC Optical VLAN OSB ATM/MPLS GW CMTS DSLAM DSLAM CMTS ATM PON FR PSTN/ISDN xdsl LAN CATV Hybrid PON ~ Gigabit Router 10G Ethernet

30 /

31 Milestone 31

32 32

33 33 : Overlay,,

34 34

35 Multi-Speed 35

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42 42 ONU ONU xdsl E1/T1 FE/GbE ngdsl Mobile Phone Fixed Wireless Home/ Office DeskTop ONU AD(IAD/HG) ONU WDM/ADM Access WDM Ring Edge OXC Gateway RPR WDM Ethernet-PON WDM-PON Office Building

43 43

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45 ADSL, ATM, 2 /ADSL DSLAM/ATM/ NAS/Router PSTN Scalable / 2 /ng-dsl 45

46 46

47 References The next 1000 years, CACM, Mar Technology 2000, IEEE Spectrum, Jan Telecommunications Networking at the Start of the 21 st Century, IEEE Communications Magazine, Jan A (R)evolutionary Technology Roadmap Beyond Today s OE Industry, NSF Workshop on The Future Revolution in Optical Communications & Networking, Dec

48 Thank You! Q&A Comments 48

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untitled Cable Modem 2004.10 sgkwon@empal.com 1.... 1 2. CABLE MODEM?... 2 2.1.... 2 2.2. /... 3 2.3.... 4 3.... 5 3.1.... 5 3.1.1. TV, 2009 4 3... 5 3.1.2. TV Broadband... 5 3.1.3. NGNA... 6 3.2.... 7 3.2.1. TV