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3 Jan. 27, 216 Fixed Income Analyst

8 1,,,, BOK 216-2, : Pass-Through of Imported Input Prices to Deomestic Producer Prices: Evidence from Sector- Level Data

9 , 2p, : Alexander Chudik and Janet Koech, Cheaper Crude Oil Affects Consumer Prices Unevenly, Economic Letter No.11, Federal Reserve of Dallas,

14 Jan. 27, 216 FX Analyst

15 /() () (%) (%) Y.6 15Y.7 15Y.9 15Y.1 15Y

16 (%) Overnight 1Week 14 15Y.6 15Y.7 15Y.9 15Y.11 15Y.12

17 15 (B$) 3 () Y.9 14Y.3 14Y.9 15Y.3 15Y Y.3 11Y.7 12Y.11 14Y.3 15Y.7

18 8 (%) () Y.6 11Y.9 12Y.12 14Y.3 15Y Q 15.2Q 15.3Q

19 8% (% of GDP) BOJ ECB 64% 48% 32% 16% (%) % 9Y.8 11Y.2 12Y.8 14Y.2 15Y.8 1 1Y.3 11Y.6 12Y.9 13Y.12 15Y.3

21 () () (%) () '14 ' (%) UAE () 1, Y.1 15Y.4 15Y.7 15Y.1 16Y.1

22 () () (%) () '14 ' () '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 (%p) 5 3y Duration() '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

25 ( ) ()

27 Jan. 27, 216 1% 5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 2.9% 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 3.1% 3.1% % -5% -1% -6.7% -6.7% -4.6% -4.6% -.8% -.8% -1.7% -1.7% -8.% -8.% -3.% -3.% -7.9% -7.9% -15% -12.1% -12.1% -2% -17.6% -17.6% -17.6% -17.6% RBOB

29 , 1, -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4,

32 , 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2,

33 (2) (4) 15M-3M (6) 3M-Cash(R) M-3M 1 3M-Cash(R) (1) M-3M 3M-Cash(R) M-3M 3M-Cash(R) M-3M 3M-Cash(R) (5) (1) (15) 15M-3M (2) 3M-Cash(R) (25) % 3% 25% 2% Cu(%) Al(%) Zn(%) 2% 15% 1% 15% 5% 1% 5% % -5% % Pb(%) -5% Ni(%) Sn(%) -1%

34 WTI (R) ,7 9,65 9,6 9,55 9,5 9,45 9,4 9,35 9,

35 4,5 (bcf) 3 (Degree Days) 4, 25 3,5 3, 2 2,5 15 2, 1, , Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

36 (bpd) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (bpd) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 (bcf) 1, , ,5 5 1,4 (bcf) 215 1, Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (bpd) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (bpd) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1,2 1,1 1, (bcf) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (bcf) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

37 $/oz 1 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 15Y Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y $/oz 12 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 15Y Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y $ 1 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y.1

38 Jan. 25, 216 FX Analyst (%) 6 1 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 1Y

39 2.5 (%) 1M 3M (%) 1Y 3Y /1 15/3 15/6 15/8 15/ /1 15/3 15/6 15/8 15/ (%) (%) (1Y) US libor(1y) M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 1Y 1Y.1 11Y.5 12Y.9 14Y.1 15Y.5

40 15 () NDF () /1 13/7 14/1 14/7 15/1 15/7

41 3 (%p) -(2Y) (bps) /7 14/11 15/3 15/7 15/ /7 14/11 15/3 15/7 15/11

42 3 () Q 1Y.3Q 12Y.1Q 13Y.3Q 15Y.1Q () () () 12/1 12/12 13/11 14/1 15/9

43 6 () KP 48 6 () /9 14/3 14/9 15/3 15/9

44 4 () 12 () M /1 13/8 14/3 14/1 15/5

Microsoft Word - retail_131122.doc

Microsoft Word - retail_131122.doc Analyst 유주연 (639-4584) [email protected] RA 박지은 (639-451) [email protected] 213.11.22 유통업 Overweight 1월 매출동향: 대형마트 -6.4%, 백화점 -2.2% Top Pick 하이마트 (7184) Buy, TP 15,원 현대홈쇼핑 (575) Buy, TP 21,원