ISSN 2005-2693 2017. 4
통화신용정책보고서 2017. 4
2014 2015 2016 2.4 2.6 1.6 0.8 1.4 3.5 2.1 1.2 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.3 1.7 1.9 0.3 1.2 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.2 1.2 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 110 1.0 100 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 90 80 70 8.0 4.0 0.0-4.0-8.0-12.0-16.0 i
4 3 4 3 6 4 2 0-2 6 4 2 0-2 2 1 2 1-4 -6-4 -6 0 0 ii
12 10 8 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 6 4 2 0-2 -4 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 iii
iv
2.8 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.3-2.3-3.7-0.9 6.3 9.5 3.3 3.4 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 10.7 9.9 11.4 4.5 7.3 2.2-0.1 2.2 1.3 3.0 3.3 4.0 2.6 3.5 3.6 2.7 4.5 4.0 6.2 1.8 3.4 2016 2017 e 2018 e v
2016 2017 e 2018 e 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9 vi
vii
3.5 3.4 3.1 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.4 2.6 1.6 0.8 1.4 3.5 2.1 1.2 2.0 1.8 2.2 1.3 1.7 1.9 0.3 1.2 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.2 1.2 4.7 4.2 4.1 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.2 7.9 8.6 7.2 7.4 7.0 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.9 0.5-3.8-3.6-5.4-3.6-2.9-2.5 0.7-2.8-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4 0.3 3
120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 4 3 4 3 120 110 100 90 80 120 70 110 100 90 80 70 2 1 0-1 2 1 0-1 4
1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 5
2014 2015 3.3 2.8 2.8 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.5 (2.9) (3.4) (2.6) (2.4) 1.7 2.2 2.5-0.1 0.8 0.6 0.2 (2.3) (3.5) (2.7) (1.5) 6.0 4.7-2.3-7.0 2.6 0.9 5.9 (-4.6) (-2.9) (-3.9) (2.0) 1.1 6.6 10.7 7.6 3.1 2.2-1.2 (9.0) (10.6) (11.2) (11.6) 5.4 1.8 2.3 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.6 (1.1) (2.7) (2.7) (2.6) 1.1-0.6 2.2-1.6 1.9 1.5 0.4 (0.4) (2.3) (3.9) (2.1) 0.5 0.7 3.6-2.8 2.1 3.0 1.3 (1.8) (3.7) (5.3) (3.7) 2016 2015 2016 2017 2,691 2,725 2,671 2,742 2,754 2,733 2,708 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.4 2,594 2,624 2,555 2,639 2,655 2,645 2,591 33.7 29.9 28.7 28.9 31.8 30.2 36.0 62.6 62.8 62.8 62.5 62.8 62.9 63.2 60.3 60.4 60.4 60.2 60.5 60.6 60.8 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 90 80 70 60-20 10 5 0-5 -10-15 6
5 4 3 2-0.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4 105.9 98.7 25.3 26.3 21.5 25.5 13.7 122.3 120.4 29.0 33.5 28.3 29.7 18.4 526.8 495.4 115.2 126.0 121.9 132.4 132.3 2) -8.0-5.9-13.7-6.7-5.0 1.8 14.9 2) 436.5 406.2 93.8 99.3 102.5 110.6 116.2 2) -16.9-6.9-16.0-10.1-5.1 4.1 23.9 2) -14.9-17.6-3.9-3.9-5.7-4.1-5.6 97.7 92.8 23.6 22.9 22.8 23.5 13.9 112.6 110.4 27.5 26.8 28.5 27.6 19.5 3.6 1.5 1.2-2.1 1.3 1.1 1.7-5.0-5.6-0.9-1.2-2.4-1.2-0.8 7
0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.0 3.8 3.7 1.1 3.1 7.5 6.1 1.2 3.8 4.8-0.6 2.1 9.1 4.7 3.7 4.4 3.7 3.7 4.2 6.0 8.6-0.2-0.5-1.1-0.7-0.5 0.4 2.1-19.2-8.1-10.6-11.2-8.1-2.3 12.0 3.3 0.8 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7-7.4-9.2-8.2-7.0-13.0-8.7-6.9 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7-0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.4 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 8
3 3 2 2 1 0-1 -2-2 1 0-1 3 2 3 2 1 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 0 1 0 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 9
2015 2016 2017-4.0-1.8-3.3-2.9-1.8 0.8 4.1-6.4-3.4-5.7-5.0-3.4 0.5 5.7 2.3 5.8 5.8 2.3 6.0 9.4 7.8-6.7-3.5-6.1-5.2-3.4 0.8 6.5-7.9-8.3-9.3-7.9-8.7-7.4-3.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3-15.3-4.2-7.1-5.7-7.7 4.0 9.8 [-19.5] [-7.3] [-14.7] [-11.6] [-5.3] [3.4] [14.2] 7.4 2.6 9.1 6.0-4.2 0.1-4.0 2015 3.5 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 4.4 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.1 4.6 2.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.2 4.3 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 9.5 14.9 0.1 6.4 7.1 0.7 1.1 4.8 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 7.1 2.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 7.2 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 2016 2017 10
4 3 90 80 70 60 4.0 3.5 4.0 3.5 2 50 40 30 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 1 20 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 11
2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 30 25 20 15 10 5 12
6 110 4 2 0-2 -4-6 105 100 95 90 85 80 10 5 0-5 -10 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 13
2015 50.0 23.9 9.5 8.8 11.0-5.4 12.9-4.3-9.9 0.0-1.3 0.6-9.2 4.9 54.3 33.8 9.5 10.0 10.4 3.8 8.0 18.1 29.8 4.7 8.8 7.7 8.5 3.0-0.4-6.7-0.6 1.6-4.1-3.6 0.6-5.4-2.1-0.5-1.1-0.8 0.4 0.8 7.0 15.9 1.9 1.7 3.3 9.0 0.4 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 6.5 5.7 3.3 6.1 6.9 6.5 2.0 5.8 4.6 3.2 4.7 5.7 5.0 1.8 0.7 1.1 0.1 1.5 1.3 1.5 0.1 1.9 3.6 2.5 3.5 3.7 4.5 2.6 0.8 1.6 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 9.3 5.8 9.6 10.6 11.0 4.5 14
1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 10 8 6 4 2 0 10 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 8 6 4 2 0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 15
3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0-1 -2-2 -4 16
-1 3.6 2.0 3.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 17
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 3.5 1.0 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 21
22
3 30 2 1 0-1 20 10 0-10 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 150 23
30 25 20 3.0 2.5 2.0 15 10 5 0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 24
25
26
2015 2016 2017 1~3 () 394.5 380.2 291.5 (-23.3) 2,613.7 2,449.8 2,044.4 (-16.5) 3,008.2 2,830.0 2,335.9 (-17.5) 27
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8 7 7 6 2 28
-1 3.0 3.0 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1-1 15 13 11-3 -3 9 7 5 3 1-1 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 29
30
2015 2016 2017 e 2018 e 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.6 2.1 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.6 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.6 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.8 2015 2016 2017 e 2018 e 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.1 2015 2016 2017 e 2018 e 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.2-3.8-3.6 0.2 1.7-2.8-0.2 1.4 1.4 7.9 6.8 7.2 7.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 33
44.1 2016 2017 e 2018 e 57.8 57.8 57.3 53.5 50.5 52.0 54.2 55.0 57.2 3 2 3 2 1 1 0 0-1 -1-2 -2 34
2.8 3.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.3-2.3-3.7-0.9 6.3 9.5 3.3 3.4 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.9 3.2 10.7 9.9 11.4 4.5 7.3 2.2-0.1 2.2 1.3 3.0 3.3 4.0 2.6 3.5 3.6 2.7 4.5 4.0 6.2 1.8 3.4 2016 2017 e 2018 e 35
5 5 4 3 2 1 0 4 3 2 1 0 36-1 -1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 2016 2017 e 2018 e 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.9
37
0.92*** 1.00*** 0.95*** 0.71*** -0.25 0.28 0.22 0.01-11.97***. 5) -9.20***. 5) 10.31***. 5) -13.08***. 5) 0.22*** 0.27*** 0.04** 0.11*** 0.08** -0.03 0.10*** 0.19*** -3.49*** -0.30-2.08** -1.11 0.46*** 0.14 0.15* 0.18 0.65 0.68 0.71 0.52 0.20 0.11 0.73 0.58 150 100 50 0-50 -100 8 6 4 2 0-2 38
40 30 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 0-10 -20-70 -10-20 -70 30 20 10 0-10 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 39
10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-120 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 40
500 400 300 200 100 200 150 100 50 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 0 41
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 42
14 12 10 8 6 4 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 2 0 0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 43
9.9 18.4 20.8 19.6 5.9 2) 7.6 10.4 11.1 13.5 5.1 3) 17.4 28.8 31.9 33.1 11.0 44
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 45
160 120 120 100 3 2 1 0 2 1 0 80-1 -2-1 40 80-3 -4-5 -2-3 0 60-6 -4 46
0.69*** 0.48*** 0.35*** 0.18** -0.06 0.15* 0.01*** 0.03*** 0.04*** 0.02** 0.75*** 1.38*** 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 47
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0-0.1-0.1 48
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