Jan. 27, 216 Fixed Income Analyst

1,,,, BOK 216-2, : Pass-Through of Imported Input Prices to Deomestic Producer Prices: Evidence from Sector- Level Data

2 215-53, 2p, : Alexander Chudik and Janet Koech, Cheaper Crude Oil Affects Consumer Prices Unevenly, Economic Letter No.11, Federal Reserve of Dallas, 215.12

Jan. 27, 216 FX Analyst

15 125 /() () 11 121 97 117 93 113 89 19 (%) (%) 85 15 15Y.6 15Y.7 15Y.9 15Y.1 15Y.12-7 -5-3 -1 1 3-1 -8-6 -4-2

7 56 42 28 (%) Overnight 1Week 14 15Y.6 15Y.7 15Y.9 15Y.11 15Y.12

15 (B$) 3 () 8 2 1 1-6 -13-2 13Y.9 14Y.3 14Y.9 15Y.3 15Y.9-1 -2-3 1Y.3 11Y.7 12Y.11 14Y.3 15Y.7

8 (%) 1 1 2 () 7 1.6 6 5 1.2 4 3 2 1 1Y.6 11Y.9 12Y.12 14Y.3 15Y.6.8.4 15.1Q 15.2Q 15.3Q

8% (% of GDP) BOJ ECB 64% 48% 32% 16% (%) 3 2.5 2 1.5 % 9Y.8 11Y.2 12Y.8 14Y.2 15Y.8 1 1Y.3 11Y.6 12Y.9 13Y.12 15Y.3

() 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 () 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 (%) 36 35 34 33 32 31 3 () 1 5-5 -1 '14 '15 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 (%) UAE () 1,2 8 4-4 -8 15Y.1 15Y.4 15Y.7 15Y.1 16Y.1

() 2 16 12 8 4 () (%) 8 7 6 5 () 3 2 1-1 -2-3 '14 '15 4 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 () 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 (%p) 5 3y 3.5 4 Duration() 3 3 2.5 2 2 1 1.5 1 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

12 1 8 6 4 2 ( ) () 2 1-1 -2-3

Jan. 27, 216 1% 5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 2.9% 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 3.1% 3.1% % -5% -1% -6.7% -6.7% -4.6% -4.6% -.8% -.8% -1.7% -1.7% -8.% -8.% -3.% -3.% -7.9% -7.9% -15% -12.1% -12.1% -2% -17.6% -17.6% -17.6% -17.6% RBOB

5 4 3 2 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4,

6 5 4 3 2 1-11-1 12-1 13-1 14-1 15-1 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1

4 3 2 1-15-1 15-4 15-7 15-1 -1-2 -3

5 4 3 2 1-2 -1 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2,

8 6 4 2 (2) (4) 15M-3M (6) 3M-Cash(R) 215-2 215-5 215-8 215-11 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 15M-3M 1 3M-Cash(R) 215-1 215-4 215-7 215-1 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 5 4 3 2 1 (1) 215-2 215-5 215-8 215-11 15M-3M 3M-Cash(R) 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 15M-3M 3M-Cash(R) 215-2 215-5 215-8 215-11 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 15M-3M 3M-Cash(R) 215-2 215-5 215-8 215-11 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 15 1 5 (5) (1) (15) 15M-3M (2) 3M-Cash(R) (25) 215-2 215-5 215-8 215-11 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 35% 3% 25% 2% Cu(%) Al(%) Zn(%) 2% 15% 1% 15% 5% 1% 5% % -5% 15-1 15-3 15-5 15-7 15-9 15-11 % Pb(%) -5% Ni(%) Sn(%) -1% 15-1 15-3 15-5 15-7 15-9 15-11

65 97 6 95 55 5 93 45 91 4 35 89 3 WTI 87 25 (R) 2 85 15-1 15-4 15-7 15-1 16-1 9,7 9,65 9,6 9,55 9,5 9,45 9,4 9,35 9,3 24 2 16 12 8 4

4,5 (bcf) 3 (Degree Days) 4, 25 3,5 3, 2 2,5 15 2, 1,5 216 1 215 1, 5 5 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. (bpd) 216 215 5 3. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6.5 6. (bpd) 216 215 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 5 3. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 (bcf) 1,7 215 1,6 214 1,5 5 1,4 (bcf) 215 1, 214 5 8 6 4 2 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 18 17 16 15 (bpd) 14 13 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1.5 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 (bpd) 216 215 5 8. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 75 7 65 6 55 5 (bcf) 215 214 5 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (bcf) 215 214 5 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

14 13 12 11 $/oz 1 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y.1 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 15Y.12 8 78 76 74 72 7 68 66 64 62 6 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y.1 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 21 18 15 $/oz 12 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y.1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 15Y.12 34 33 33 32 32 31 31 3 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y.1 35 3 25 2 15 1 $ 1 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y.1 5 15Y.1 15Y.5 15Y.9 16Y.1

Jan. 25, 216 FX Analyst 2 1.5 1.5 -.5-1 (%) 6 1 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 1Y

2.5 (%) 1M 3M 2.1 1.7 1.3 (%) 1Y 3Y.8 1.3.3.9.5 15/1 15/3 15/6 15/8 15/11 -.2 15/1 15/3 15/6 15/8 15/11 2 1.5 (%) 6 1 3.6 3 (%) (1Y) US libor(1y) 1 2.4.5 1.8 1.2 -.5.6-1 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 1Y 1Y.1 11Y.5 12Y.9 14Y.1 15Y.5

15 () NDF () 12 1 115 5 11-5 15-1 -15 1 13/1 13/7 14/1 14/7 15/1 15/7

3 (%p) -(2Y) 2.4 1 (bps) 9 1.8 1.2.6 14/7 14/11 15/3 15/7 15/11 8 7 6 5 4 14/7 14/11 15/3 15/7 15/11

3 () 2-14 1-1 -2 9.1Q 1Y.3Q 12Y.1Q 13Y.3Q 15Y.1Q -28-42 () () -56-7 () 12/1 12/12 13/11 14/1 15/9

6 () KP 48 6 () 4 36 24 12 2-2 -4-6 13/9 14/3 14/9 15/3 15/9

4 () 12 () 32 76 24 32 16-12 8 11 12 13 14 15 3-56 1M 3 1-1 13/1 13/8 14/3 14/1 15/5