OM04_CapacityPlaning.ppt

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1 ! 읽기 : Chapter 17, and Chapter 5, 5s! Play with ProjectLibre Ch. 5. Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services ( 전략적생산용량계획 ) Hansoo Kim ( ) Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST Ch.17 OM Overview! What is Project? What is Project Management?! Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling! Matrix Organization,! WBS (Work-Breakdown-Structure)! Network Diagram " AON, AOA! Gantt Chart! PERT/CPM " Finding Critical Path! Forward Calculation/Backward Calculation! Project Management Problem " Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, or behind schedule? " Is the project over or under cost budget? " Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time? If the project must be finished in less than the scheduled amount of time, what is the way to accomplish this at least cost?! Crashing X X X Class Overview (Ch. 0) Mgmt of Quality/ Six Sigma Quality (Ch. 9, 10) Demand Mgmt Forecasting (Ch 3) Operations, Productivity, and Strategy (Ch. 1, 2) Queueing/ Simulation (Ch. 18) Aggregated Planning (Ch. 13) Project Management (Ch. 17) Supply Chain Management (Ch 11) Inventory Management (Ch. 12) Strategic Capacity Planning (Ch. 5, 5S) Location Planning and Analysis (Ch. 8) MRP & ERP (Ch 14) Process Selection/ Facility Layout; LP (Ch. 6, 6S) JIT & Lean Mfg System (Ch. 15) Term Project

2 OM Expert Understanding Problem Communicable with other OM People Domain Expert (Studying general Problems and Working Experience) OM EXPERT!! Operations Research ( 경영과학 ) Mathematical Programming, and Computational Methodology Existing Models: LP Model, Queueing Model, Simulation Model, PERT/CPM Model Develop New Models Developing Proper Model! 생산용량계획의중요성을설명할수있다! 생산용량을정의하고측정하는방법을토의한다! 유효생산용량의결정요소들을기술한다! 생산용량대안개발과관련된주요고려사항들을토의한다! 생산용량대안을평가하는데유용한도구들을간단히기술한다 Finding Solution Technique Terms ( ) Bottleneck operation 作 Expected monetary value(e MV)criterion Break-even point 盈亏平衡点 Expected value of perfect in formation(evpi) Capacity 能力 Laplace Capacity cushion 能力冲 Maximax Cash flow 金流 Maximin Diseconomies of scale 模不 Minimax regret 期准 Economies of scale 模 Payoff table 算表 Outsource 外包 Regret (opportunity loss) Present value Risk 完全信息期价 Bounded rationality Sensitivity analysis 敏度分析 Certainty Suboptimization 局部最化 Capacity( Planning! Capacity ( 생산용량 ): 한생산단위가처리할수있는최대부하 the upper limit or ceiling on the load that an operating unit can handle. " Eg. # of bicycle assembled in an hr! 생산용량에포함되는요소들 " Equipment ( 설비 ) " Space ( 공간 ) " Employee skills ( 작업능력 )! 생산용량계획수립시기본질문들 The basic questions in capacity handling are: " What kind of capacity is needed? ( 어떤종류의생산용량이필요한가?) " How much is needed? ( 얼마나필요한가?) " When is it needed? ( 언제필요한가?) Decision tree Uncertainty

3 1. 미래에발생할수요를충족하는능력에영향을준다 2. 생산용량결정은생산비용에영향을준다. 3. 생산용량은보통초기투자의주요구성요소이다. 4. 생산용량결정은장기적관점의의사결정이다. 5. 생산용량결정은경쟁력에영향을미친다. 6. 생산용량결정에따라관리의용이성이달라질수있 다. 7. 글로벌화로인해생산용량결정이더중요해지고복 잡해졌다. 8. 생산용량결정은충분한시간을두고결정해야할중요 한의사결정이다. 생산용량의정의! Design capacity ( 설계용량 ) " 설계시결정된최대산출물이나서비스용량 " Maximum output rate or service capacity an operation, process, or facility is designed for! Effective capacity ( 유효생산용량 ) " 설계용량에서인적요인또는기타이유로인한공제량을뺀용량 " Design capacity minus allowances such as personal time, maintenance, and scrap! Actual output ( 실제산출률 ) " 실제산출률 유효생산용량을초과할수없음 " Rate of output actually achieved cannot exceed effective capacity. Efficiency( 효율 ) and Utilization( 이용률 ) Efficiency = Utilization = Example 1 Actual output Effective capacity Actual output Design capacity = 50 trucks/day Design capacity Effective capacity = 40 trucks/day Actual output = 36 units/day Both measures expressed as percentages 유효생산용량에영향을미치는요인 Determinants of Effective Capacity! Facilities ( 시설 ) " Design ( 설계 ) " Location ( 위치 ) " Layout ( 배치 ) " Environment ( 환경 )! Product/service ( 제품 / 서비스 ) " Design ( 설계 ) " Product or service mix ( 제품 / 서비스믹스 )! Process ( 프로세스 ) " Quantity capabilities( 양적능력 ) " Quality capabilities( 품질능력 )! Human factors ( 인적요인 ) " Job content( 직무내용 ) " Job design( 직무설계 ) " Training and experience( 훈련과경험 ) " Motivation( 동기유발 ) " Compensation( 보상 ) " Learning rates( 학습속도 ) " Absenteeism and labor turnover ( 결근및퇴직률 )! Policy( 정책 )! Operational( 운영 ) " Scheduling( 스케줄링 ) " Materials management( 자재관리 ) " Quality assurance( 품질보증 ) " Maintenance policies( 보전정책 ) " Equipment breakdowns( 장비고장 )! Supply chain( 공급사슬 )! External factors ( 외적요인 ) " Product standards( 제품표준 ) " Safety regulations( 안전규제 ) " Unions( 노조 ) " Pollution control standards( 공해관리기준 ) Key$to$improving$capacity$~$ Efficiency$4$Utilization $

생산용량계획의주요의사결정 Key Decisions of Capacity Planning 1. 필요생산용량 Amount of capacity needed 여유생산용량 (Capacity cushion) = (100% - Utilization) 2. Timing of changes 3. Need to maintain balance 4.

대안파악 (Identify alternatives) 4. 재무분석수행 (Conduct financial analysis) 5. 정성적요인평가 (Assess key qualitative issues) 6. 대안선택 (Select one alternative) 7. 실행 (Implement alternative chosen) 8.

4 생산용량계획의주요의사결정 Key Decisions of Capacity Planning 1. 필요생산용량 Amount of capacity needed 여유생산용량 (Capacity cushion) = (100% - Utilization) 2. Timing of changes 3. Need to maintain balance 4. Extent of flexibility of facilities 생산용량계획절차 : Steps for Capacity Planning 1. 미래필요생산용량추정 (Estimate future capacity requirements) 2. 현재생산용량평가 (Evaluate existing capacity) 3. 대안파악 (Identify alternatives) 4. 재무분석수행 (Conduct financial analysis) 5. 정성적요인평가 (Assess key qualitative issues) 6. 대안선택 (Select one alternative) 7. 실행 (Implement alternative chosen) 8. 결과모니터링 (Monitor results) 생산용량소요예측 Forecasting Capacity Requirements 생산용량계산 (Calculating Processing Requirements)! Long-term vs. short-term capacity needs " Long-term relates to overall level of capacity such as facility size, trends, and cycles Product Annual Demand Standard processing time per unit (hr.) Processing time needed (hr.) " Short-term relates to variations from seasonal, random, and irregular fluctuations in demand # ,000 # ,400 # ,400 5,800 년간용량이 2000 시간 / 기계라면, 우리는 5800 시간을확보하기위해 2.9 대의설비가필요하다 5,800 (hours)/2,000 (hours/mc) = 2.90 machines

서비스용량계획 : Planning Service Capacity! Need to be near customers ( 용량과고객이근접함 ) " Capacity and location are closely tied!

Degree of volatility( 휘발성 ) of demand " Peak demand periods 생산용량, 자체생산이냐구매냐? In-House or Outsourcing* 1. 가용생산용량 Available capacity 2. 전문성 ; Expertise 3.

위험 ; Risk Outsource( 외주 ): 외부공급자로부터제품과서비스를공급받는것 obtain a good or service from an external provider 생산용량대안개발 (Developing Capacity Alternatives) 병목공정 Bottleneck

시스템사고로생산용량변경에접근하라 Take a big picture approach to capacity changes (not to be sub-o ptimal) 4. 생산용량을덩어리 (Chunk) 로다룰준비를하라 Prepare to deal with capacity chunks 5.

5 서비스용량계획 : Planning Service Capacity! Need to be near customers ( 용량과고객이근접함 ) " Capacity and location are closely tied! Inability to store services ( 서비스용량은저장이안됨 ) " Capacity must be matched with timing of demand! Degree of volatility( 휘발성 ) of demand " Peak demand periods 생산용량, 자체생산이냐구매냐? In-House or Outsourcing* 1. 가용생산용량 Available capacity 2. 전문성 ; Expertise 3. 품질 ; Quality considerations 4. 수요의특성 ; Nature of demand 5. 원가 ; Cost 6. 위험 ; Risk Outsource( 외주 ): 외부공급자로부터제품과서비스를공급받는것 obtain a good or service from an external provider 생산용량대안개발 (Developing Capacity Alternatives) 병목공정 Bottleneck Operation sub-optimization 1. 시스템을유연하게설계하라 Design flexibility into systems 2. 수명주기단계를감안하라 Take stage of life-cycle into account 3. 시스템사고로생산용량변경에접근하라 Take a big picture approach to capacity changes (not to be sub-o ptimal) 4. 생산용량을덩어리 (Chunk) 로다룰준비를하라 Prepare to deal with capacity chunks 5. 생산용량소요를평준화하도록시도하라 Attempt to smooth out capacity requirements 6. 최적운영수준을파악하라. Identify the optimal operating level Operation 1 20/hr. Figure 5.2 Operation 2 10/hr. Bottleneck Bottleneck operation: An operation in a sequence of operations whose capacity is lower than that of the other operations 일련의공정들중에서생산용량이가장작은공정 Operation 3 15/hr. Maximum output rate limited by bottleneck 10/hr.

! Diseconomies of scale " 규모의비경제 : 산출률이최적수준이상이면산출률을늘리면단위당평균원가는올라간다 Economies of Scale

Figure 5.5 대안평가 Evaluating Alternatives!

6 규모의경제 Economies of Scale! Economies of scale " 규모의경제 : 산출률이최적수준이하면, 산출률을늘리면단위당평균원가는내려간다.! Diseconomies of scale " 규모의비경제 : 산출률이최적수준이상이면산출률을늘리면단위당평균원가는올라간다 Economies of Scale Minimum cost & optimal operating rate are functions of size of production unit. Figure 5.5 대안평가 Evaluating Alternatives! 비용 - 조업도분석 (Cost-volume analysis) " 손익분기점 Break-even point! 재무분석 (Financial analysis) " 현금흐름 (Cash flow) " 현재가치 (Present value)! 의사결정이론 (Decision theory)! 대기행렬분석 (Waiting-line analysis) 비용 - 조업도관계 Cost-Volume Relationships

$6,000. Variable costs would be $2.00 per pie, and pies would retail for $7.00 each. 1.

What would the profit (loss) be if 1,000 pies are made and sold in a month? 3.

7 Break-Even Analysis Example 3! Adding a new line of pies, which will require leasing new equipment for a monthly payment of $6,000. Variable costs would be $2.00 per pie, and pies would retail for $7.00 each. 1. How many pies must be sold in order to break even? 2. What would the profit (loss) be if 1,000 pies are made and sold in a month? 3. How many pies must be sold to realize a profit of $4,000? 4. If 2,000 can be sold, and a profit target is $5,000, what price should be charged per pie? 복수손익분기점문제 : Break-Even Problem with Step Fixed Costs Decision Theory Ch. 5S

Decision Theory Decision Theory represents a general approach to decision making which is suitable for a wide range of operations management decisions, including: Capacity planning Location planning

8 Decision Theory Decision Theory represents a general approach to decision making which is suitable for a wide range of operations management decisions, including: Capacity planning Location planning Product and service design Equipment selection Decision Process 1. Identify the problem 2. Specify objectives and criteria for a solution 3. Develop suitable alternatives 4. Analyze and compare alternatives 5. Select the best alternative 6. Implement the solution 7. Monitor to see that the desired result is achieved Decision Environments! Certainty - Environment in which relevant parameters have known values! Risk - Environment in which certain future events have probable outcomes! Uncertainty - Environment in which it is impossible to assess the likelihood of various future events Decision Making under Certainty ( ) Payoff table

9 Decision Making under Uncertainty ( 불확정성하의의사결정 ) Maximin - Choose the alternative with the best of the worst possible payoffs Maximax - Choose the alternative with the best possible payoff Laplace - Choose the alternative with the best average payoff of any of the alternatives Minimax Regret - Choose the alternative that has the least of the worst regrets Decision Making Under Risk ( 위험 ( 불확실성 ) 하의의사결정 )! Risk: The probability of occurrence for each state of nature is known! Risk lies between the extremes of uncertainty and certainty! Expected monetary value (EMV) criterion: " The best expected value among alternatives " Determine the expected payoff of each alternative, and choose the alternative with the best expected payoff (Decision Tree)! Decision tree: a Schematic representation of the available alternatives and their possible consequences.

10 Example! A manager must decide on the size of a video arcade to construct. The manager has narrowed the choices to two: large or small. Information has been collected on payoffs, and a decision tree has been constructed. Analyze the decision tree and determine which initial alternative (build small or build large) should be chosen in order to maximize expected monetary value. ( 평균완전정보비용 ) Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Expected value of perfect information: the differe nce between the expected payoff under certainty and the expected payoff under risk Expected value of perfect information Expected payoff = - under certainty Expected payoff under risk 민감도분석 Sensitivity Analysis! Sensitivity Analysis: Determining the range of probability for which an alternative has the best expected payoff! Useful for decision makers to have some indication of how sensitive the choice of an alternative is to changes in one or more of these values! Capacity Planning! Decision Theory

11 HW#! Review all Solved Problems on Ch. 5, 5s " Do not need to hand-in ( 좋지?!) To be OM Expert!!! Understanding Problem Communicable with other OM People Domain Expert (Studying general Problems and Working Experience) OM EXPERT!! Existing Models: LP Model, Queueing Model, Simulation Model, PERT/CPM Model Develop New Models Developing Proper Model Operations Research ( 경영과학 ) Mathematical Programming, and Computational Methodology Finding Solution Technique

04-다시_고속철도61~80p

04-다시_고속철도61~80p Approach for Value Improvement to Increase High-speed Railway Speed An effective way to develop a highly competitive system is to create a new market place that can create new values. Creating tools and