03이경미(237~248)ok

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "03이경미(237~248)ok"

순애 창
7 years ago
Views:

1 The recent ( ) changes on temperature and precipitation related to normals ( ) in Korea* Kyoungmi Lee** Hee-Jeong Baek*** ChunHo Cho**** Won-Tae Kwon*****. 61 (1971~2000) 10 (2001~2010) ,. 9, mm, %. 7 7.,. 7, 8.,,,, 10 Abstract : This paper analyzes the recent ( ) changes of temperature and precipitation in the aspect of temporal and spatial features using 61 observed station data in Korea. Annual mean temperature for the last decade in Korea increased by 0.5 over the normals ( ). In particular, the minimum temperature in autumn showed highest increase. The most significant decrease in diurnal temperature range in September had a strong negative correlation with minimum temperature and precipitation in September. Annual precipitation for the last decade in Korea increased 97.4 mm over the normals. And an increase of precipitation in July accounted for 81.7 percent of that. The precipitation in July had s strong positive correlation with number of days with precipitation 50 mm in July. Maximum precipitation peak during the Changma period showed an increase in precipitation intensity, while the timing of peak during the post-changma period was about 20 days earlier. The increase of precipitation in July was largest in Jungbu region, while the that in August was relatively larger in Honam region. Key Words : climate change, temperature, precipitation, diurnal temperature range, changes in the last decade. 100 (1906 ~2005) 0.07 /10 (IPCC, 2007), 1954~1999 * NIMR-2011-B-2( ). **, (Researcher, Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA, leekm80@korea.kr) *** (Team leader, Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA, heejbaek@korea.kr) **** (Director, Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA, choch0704@korea.kr) ***** (Director General, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA, wontk@korea.kr)

2 0.23 /10 (Jung et al., 2002) (, 2009a)., 10 (2001~2010) 1880, (, 2010). 1980,,,. 2001~ , (, 2010)..., ( 2000; Choi, 2002; Jung et al., 2002;, 2004; Ryoo et al., 2004; Choi et al., 2008).,,. 1973~ ( ) 0.60 /10 (0.54 /10 ) (Choi et al., 2008). Jung et al. (2002) 1954~ ,. 1980, -5.5 (Ryoo et al., 2004). (2000).,. 1920~1999,,, (Choi, 2002), (, 2009b, 2010). (2004) ~ ~ , Choi et al. (2008) 7~8 40 mm. (Houghton et al., 1996) (2001~2010) ~

3 Figure 1. The locations and data periods of the weather stations used in this study.,,, 40 (1971~2010). 61, , , 33 (Figure 1) (1971~2000) 10 (2001~2010),,,.. (1~365 ), 11., 1, 2 (, 1995)..,. (3~5 ), (6~8 ), (9~11 ), (12~2 ) ,,,.,,, 1973~2010 t- 5%. 10 (2001~2010) , (1971~2000) (Figure 2) , 8.2, 0.5, 0.6.,

4 Figure 2. Seasonal difference between the recent decade ( ) and the past 30 years ( ) for T max, T min, T ave and DTR (diurnal temperature range). 0.8, , , , , 9 9 (r=-0.812) (r=-0.818) (Figure 3). 1973~ /10 (p=0.062) /10 (p=0.009), mm/10 (p=0.278)., 9 9. Figure 4 10,,. (1.1 ) Figure 3. Correlation between the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and minimum temperature (left) and precipitation (right) in September in Korea, ** p<

5 Figure 4. Spatial distribution of the difference between the recent decade ( ) and the past 30 years ( ) for T max, T min, T ave and DTR. 241

6 Table 1. Number of stations with positive or negative time trends of T max, T min, T ave and DTR Positive Negative Significant No-significant Significant No-significant T max T min T ave DTR ,,, (, 1991), (, 2010). 10. Table ~2010, 80% /, /..,. (Mitchell, 1961). 10, (0.5 ),. (Table 1).., 10. ( / ), ( / ), ( / ),. 10. (1.2 ),.. (-0.2 ) (-0.3 ),,. Table

7 10. (1.5 ),.,, 1.0. Table 1 (28, 45.9%) (33, 54.1%). 36.1%. Jung et al. (2002), 1954~ ( ) ,411.9 mm, 1,314.5 mm 97.4 mm(7.4%) (Figure 5a).,,, mm, mm, mm, mm 55.3%.,, 8.2 mm(3.2%), 86.7 mm(13.7%), 6.8 mm(6.8%) 4.3 mm(1.7%). 89.0%. 10 (Figure 5b) mm Figure 5. Seasonal (a) and Monthly (b) difference between the recent decade ( ) and the past 30 years ( ) for precipitation %, 91.8%., Choi (2002),. 1973~ mm 0.3 /10 (p=0.020), 7 (29.6 mm/10, p=0.065) mm (r=0.976) (Figure 6). 7 7, mm, mm. 6, 10, mm, 10.3 mm, 16.0 mm

8 5 mm. 3, 4, 10, ~ (-12.6 mm/10, p=0.071) 7 (29.6 mm/10, p=0.065) 10% Figure 6. Correlation between precipitation and number of days with precipitation 50 mm in July in Korea, ** p< Figure , 8, 10 mm/ mm/. 8 10, 11 mm/., 1.5, ~. (2002) 1979~ Figure 7. Daily precipitation of the past 30 years ( ) and the recent decade ( ) in Korea. 244

9 Figure 8 10., (429.5 mm) (235.3 mm), (223.9 mm), (206.0 mm), (203.7 mm) 200 mm. (66.3 mm), (41.7 mm), (13.0 mm), (4.3 mm). 1973~ (Table 2).,,,,,,,,, 10 (16.4%).,. 7. Figure 8. Spatial distribution of the difference between the recent decade ( ) and the past 30 years ( ) for precipitation ~ (2004) 1941~ ~ , 8 9., (2008) mm,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (Figure 9). 100 mm mm ~ mm/10 (p=0.039). 8 9, ~ mm/10 Table 2. Number of stations with positive or negative time trends of annual and July precipitation. Positive Negative Total precipitation Significant No-significant Significant No-significant Annual July

10 Figure 9. Monthly difference of precipitation between the recent decade ( ) and the past 30 years ( ) in Jungbu, Honam and Eastern coast. (p=0.094), 7. 7, ~ mm/10 (p=0.065), mm/10 (p=0.190)...,,,., 7 8~9 (, 2008). 8 (, 2003;, 2007). 7. (2005),. 7., 8. Choi and Kim (2007). (1971~2000) 10 (2001~2010).,,, , 0.5, 0.6,. 9, 9 246

11 .,.,. 10., mm, 86.7 mm % ,, mm 7, 8.,.,,.,., 2009a, II - : -,., 2009b, III - -,., 2010, VII - -,., 1995,,., 2010, 2010,., 2002,, 12(3): , 2008,, 43(3): , 2003, 2, 13(1): , 2004, - -, 39(6): , 2007, 8, 2007 : , 2010,, R&D ,., 2000, 20, 35(4): , 2005,,, 41(6): , 1991,, 27(3): Choi, G., W.T. Kwon, K.O. Boo, and Y.M. Cha,

12 Recent spatial and temporal changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation across the Republic of Korea. Journal of the Korean Geographical Society 43(5): Choi, K.S. and B.J. Kim, Climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall over the Korean peninsula. Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society 43(2): Choi, Y.E., Trends in daily precipitation events and their extremes in the southern region of Korea. Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Impact Assessment 11(3): Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, K. Maskell, (eds) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Contribution of WGI to the Second Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: New York. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. Jung, H.S., Y. Choi, J.H. Oh and G.H. Lim, Recent trends in temperature and precipitation over South Korea. International Journal of Climatology 22: Mitchell, J.M., Recent secular changes of global temperature. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 95: Ryoo, S.B., W.T. Kwon, and J.G. Jhun, Characteristics of wintertime daily and extreme minimum temperature over South Korea. International Journal of Climatology 24:

433대지05박창용

433대지05박창용 Recent Changes in Summer Precipitation Characteristics over South Korea Changyong Park* JaYeon Moon** Eun-Jeong Cha*** Won-Tae Yun**** Youngeun Choi***** 1958 2007 6 9 6 9 10 10 10 10 10 Abstract This