KOCHI 자료 17-001 2016 년對中수출평가와 2017 년전망
C O N T E N T S 목 차 요약 Ⅰ. 16 년대중수출평가 1 8 1. 대중수출동향 2. 대중수출둔화원인 Ⅱ. 17 년대중수출여건 13 15 19 1. 경기요인 : 산업및소비수요 2. 수출구조요인 : 글로벌수입수요, GVC 변화 3. 환경 제도요인 : 통상환경, 원자재, 환율 Ⅲ. 17 년대중수출전망 26 28 1. 종합전망 2. 업종별전망 Ⅳ. 시사점과대중수출확대방안
[] () 3 16 9.3 ㅇ ㅇ ㅇ ( ) ( ),,, ㅇ ( ) GDP 15 6.9% 16 1~3Q 6.7% ㅇ ( ) ㅇ ( ) *)
() ㅇ () 3 (,, ) 구분 전망및근거 ㅇ - (),, FTA, - (),,, ㅇ ㅇ ㅇ ㅇ ㅇ ㅇ ㅇ GVC ㅇ ㅇ ㅇ元 ㅇ 17 6.5% (), (13 5) 6.5% ㅇ +, 2025 ㅇ,,,, ㅇ *, ㅇ, ㅇ ㅇ (GVC ) : ㅇ :, FTA ㅇ : ㅇ 中 ( ),,, 구분업종 * BEC 2016(1~11 월 ) 구성비수출증가율 수출전망 ** 1 21 0.9-4.3 :, FTA (),, FTA 22 26.3-4.3 () () ; () GVC 42 45.6-10.0, () ; () 53 4.5 3.7 ( ) (), FTA; () 41 19.1-18.2 ( ) 112 0.1 43.4 (), FTA; () 122 0.5 15.5 ( ) () 51 0.1-88.7 : 61 0.4-18.8 (), FTA; () 62 0.7-1.3 ( ) () 63 1.6 11.1
ㅇ () 中, -,, IT,,, -, 분야 업종 ㅇ () - ( ) / * - (FTA ) 3, * - ( 韓中 ) *,, PPP( ), FTA ㅇ ( ) -, -
Ⅰ. 16 1. () 3 16 9.3% ㅇ, 2, ㅇ ( ) (, ) : (kita.net) () : (kita.net) - 1 -
ㅇ 92 (3) ㅇ ( 92 ) 2 3 ㅇ (1) ~ (1992~2008 ) : ㅇ (2) WTO ~ (2001~2008 ) :, (, ) ㅇ (3) (2012~2016 ()) - 2012, 2014 < > * : - 2 -
( ) ㅇ 26.0% 16 25.1% 0.9%p ㅇ * 31.7% - 4.7% 31.3% 16 31.7% 0.4%p 국가명 2013 2014 2015 2016 + 31.0 30.1 31.3 31.7 26.1 25.4 26.0 25.1 11.1 12.3 13.2 13.4 5.0 4.8 5.8 6.6 3.8 3.9 5.3 6.6 6.2 5.6 4.9 4.9 4.0 4.1 2.8 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.5 : 국가명 2013 2014 2015 2016 2.1 2.3-8.0-5.9 + -0.6-4.5-4.7 8.6-0.4-5.6-9.3 6.0 13.3-0.6-4.8-14.9-1.8 11.6 7.8 32.2 6.0 24.2 17.6-10.7-7.2-20.5-4.8-3 -
( ) ㅇ 13 4 1, 16 ㅇ 2013 9.2% 1 ㅇ - ㅇ ( ) *, - 2 13~14-3 14-4 - 5 ( ) () : - 4 -
(), ㅇ 77.4%, 21.7% ㅇ (, ) ( ) - (, ) ㅇ - ( ) (3) (5) * : UN BEC - 5 -
( ) * ㅇ 49.6% 45.5% 4.1%p ㅇ 5 (45.8%) (45.5%) (29.2%) (14.4%) (7.5%) < > * : < > * : - 6 -
( ) ㅇ 2, ( ) < > 순번 품목명 코드 (TI) 2015 년 2016 년 (1~11 월 ) 수출금액수출증감률구성비수출금액수출증감률구성비 1,371.2-5.6 100.0 1,124.0-10.9 100.0 1 831 278.2 6.4 20.3 220.1-14.5 19.6 2 836 220.8-1.9 16.1 168.8-17.8 15.0 3 812 77.1 21.3 5.6 56.0-22.5 5.0 4 214 63.2-16.5 4.6 54.8-5.8 4.9 5 212 57.9-13.9 4.2 52.8 0.7 4.7 6 742 58.8-3.5 4.3 49.0-7.9 4.4 7 133 44.2-36.9 3.2 42.3 2.9 3.8 8 813 33.0 6.3 2.4 27.7-8.2 2.5 9 310 27.0-0.7 2.0 25.9 4.9 2.3 10 613 26.8-23.2 2.0 25.5 4.7 2.3 11 834 27.6-14.4 2.0 23.3-8.5 2.1 12 211 25.8-38.8 1.9 22.9-4.3 2.0 13 715 22.5-10.2 1.6 19.6-5.6 1.7 14 228 16.7 8.3 1.2 17.8 17.5 1.6 15 790 16.6 17.3 1.2 15.3 2.2 1.4 16 815 14.4 5.6 1.1 15.2 17.6 1.4 17 227 12.2 98.9 0.9 14.8 36.2 1.3 18 711 14.4-1.8 1.1 12.4-2.9 1.1 19 732 18.4 27.9 1.3 12.4-25.3 1.1 20 622 15.8-2.7 1.1 12.1-17.7 1.1 1,071.4 78.1 888.8 79.1 * 16 1~11 * : - 7 -
2. 1) ( 新常態, ) 2 7% ㅇ ( ) ㅇ ( ) 12 8% (7.9%) 15 7% (6.9%), 16 6.7% ㅇ : CEIC GDP 2012 2013 2014 2015 16(1~6) 14.8 12.7 9.8 7.9 7.6 17.9 13.9 11.1 14.6 11.5 18.0 11.6 10.9 9.8 7.0 17.0 13.3 10.0 8.8 8.9 16.0 25.8 0.0 7.3-1.5 17.5 14.1 11.6 12.3 11.7 10.5 7.2 1.8 16.6 16.9 23.0 17.7 15.0 14.2 13.3 17.7 11.8 11.6 15.2 9.2 27.0 21.0 13.9 16.1 15.6 28.9 20.4 32.7 29.3 14.9. 16.9 9.9 6.6-6.6-1.3 24.6 22.1 13.9 18.7 15.6 7.3 10.4 7.7 5.3 7.7-8 -
2) ㅇ 12 ㅇ 12 : Trade Map - 9 -
3) 2014 ㅇ 2014 1 1/4 ㅇ 2 30~60% ㅇ : Petronet (, ) HS () 2014 2015 2016 ( 14~16, %) 290243 T 1,323 855 778-41.2 271019 T 915 583 466-49.1 271012 T 1,000 554 426-57.4 290250 T 1,635 1,176 1,023-37.4 290122 T 1,467 941 725-50.5 390210 T 1,679 1,419 1,213-27.8 ABS 390330 T 2,160 1,873 1,569-27.4 271320 T 560 383 206-63.3 270799 T 825 568 413-50.0 290121 T 1,516 1,125 1,047-30.9 : GTA - 10 -
4) ( ) ㅇ ㅇ 순번 < - > 품목명 품목대중수출대베트남수출 ( 16 년 1~9 월 ) HS 코드 ( 수출액백만 $) 수출증감률 구성비수출액 ( 백만 $) 수출증감률 구성비 89,667-12.1 100.0 23,543 12.2 100.0 1 8542 15,225-15.4 17.0 3,084 67.2 13.1 2 9013 9,090-22.4 10.1 218 550.3 0.9 3 2902 4,719-1.3 5.3 - - - 4 8708 3,474-7.7 3.9 275 31.2 1.2 5 / 8531 3,135-4.5 3.5 1,494 73.3 6.3 6 ( 瀝靑油 ) 2710 2,828 9.5 3.2 961 38.5 4.1 7 () 8517 2,706-36.2 3.0 3,118-7.4 13.2 8 8541 1,548-11.9 1.7 378 74.7 1.6 9 (boule)/ 8486 1,418-25.8 1.6 - - - 10 TV 8529 1,416 17.5 1.6 893 272.0 3.8 : - 11 -
Ⅱ. 17 ( ),, [] 3 ㅇ ( ) 38% ( 16 ), ㅇ ( ) 46% ( ), ㅇ ( )., - (), 17 3 FTA - ( ) : 2014 - (/) - 12 -
1. : ( ) 16 6.7% 17 6% * ㅇ 6% ( ) 3,,, ㅇ 3, -,,, ㅇ (+) *, 2025 **, *** ㅇ *, ** - 13 -
( ), ㅇ IT,, GDP <GDP > GDP 자료 : CEIC <GDP > 산업 2013 2014 2015 2016(1~3Q) 2017 년 ( 전망 ) GDP 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.7 >6.5() 1 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.5-2 8.0 7.4 6.1 6.1 ±6% 7.7 7.0 6.0 6.0 ±6.0 9.7 9.1 6.8 6.9 ±7.0 3 8.3 7.8 8.3 7.6 7.5~8.0 6.6 6.5 4.6 5.3 ±5.5 10.5 9.7 6.1 6.4 ±6.5 3.9 5.8 6.2 6.8 ±7.0 10.6 9.9 15.9 6.3 ±6.5 7.2 2.0 3.8 8.9 ±9.0 7.5 8.5 9.3 8.9 ±9.0 * : 2016 CEIC, 2017-14 -
2. :, GVC ㅇ 2012 GDP ㅇ WTO ( 01 ) 14 15 ㅇ 07 (IMF ) 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 () 17 () 18 () GDP 5.4 4.8 5.5 5.7 3.0-0.1 5.4 4.2 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.6 11.2 8.2 9.1 7.6 2.5-11.6 13.7 7.0 2.1 3.1 3.3 2.4 2.4 4.0 4.3 11.0 7.8 9.5 7.2 2.5-11.4 14.8 6.8 2.8 3.3 3.1 2.2 2.2 3.5 4.0 19.6 12.9 17.0 12.9 5.2 3.0 11.7 11.7 5.8 9.7 3.7 3.4 3.4 1.7 2.3 27.7 24.0 26.2 24.0 9.8-11.2 10.5 10.5 6.8 9.6 4.2 2.0 2.0 1.6 2.5 자료 : IMF - 15 -
ㅇ 15 16 ㅇ ㅇ 17 : Trade Map ㅇ ( ) - 16 -
() ㅇ 11 30% 20%, 57% - 20%, 55~57% ( ) - 10 ㅇ 44.0% 32.2% 11.8%p 7.6%p - : CEIC - 17 -
() ㅇ, ㅇ ( 16 1~10 ) 57.8%), ( 16 1~10 28.2%)) (3) (5) : GTA UN BEC (3) (5) : CEIC UN BEC - 18 -
3. :,, 1), ㅇ ( ) -, -, (()),, (KIEP, < >, 16-32(2016 )) < 참고 > 대중수출과중미무역관계 KOTRA 6.3% ㅇ 5%, ( 10% ) - 19 -
ㅇ,,,, * ㅇ, -, - ㅇ - -, - 20 -
: < > 분야내용방법 대응기존정책및사례전망 정책기조 - 환율 무역구제 다자기구 / 협력 경제협력 통상협정 (AD), ㅇ CVD, SG (CVD), (SG) ㅇ AD ㅇ美, (pivot to Asia) 美, () ㅇ中,, ( 美, ) ㅇ ㅇ 09, (MES) 中, 美 中, 美 WTO, *, G20, **, - () MES -, 源,,,, 08 16 美,, (BIT)*** à TPP 美, 美, RCEP****, FTAAP***** 中, 美 中, 美 - * IMF, AIIB( ), ADB(, ) **,,,,, ***, 2008, ( ) **** (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) : 16( 10,,,,,, )( ) 2012 11 ***** (FTAAP) : 2006 TPP RCEP., - 21 -
FTA, ㅇ, 17 3 FTA - 2( 1) 16 11 10.9% FTA 4.0% FTA ( ) * - 3 17 FTA ㅇ FTA - (ECFA), FTA - FTA, FTA - 22 -
2) ㅇ 14-15 30~60-16 ㅇ 17 : Petronet < > WTI Brent 2015 48.67 52.32 2016 43.07 43.46 2017 50.66 51.66 * : (EIA) (STEO) (2016. 12) - 23 -
3) 15 7 / ㅇ () 10 5, 15 7 ~ 16 11 16 11.8% ㅇ (), / * - / / ㅇ /, ㅇ, * - 24 -
/ () / / () : CEIC - 25 -
Ⅲ. 17 1. 17 ㅇ 17 - (+ ) ㅇ, ( ), - () 17 6.5% +,,, (),, (,,,,, ),, - () ( ),,, - ( ), () 3 FTA - 26 -
() 구분 < 17 > 전망및근거 ㅇ - (),,, FTA, - (),,, ㅇ ㅇ ㅇ ㅇ ㅇ : 17 6.5%, (13 5) 6.5% ㅇ :, +,, - :,,, - + :,, - :,,,,, ㅇ :,,, ㅇ : *, ㅇ GVC ㅇ ㅇ ( ) ㅇ, - 15-16 ㅇ : ( 11 ) 44.0% ( 16 ) 33.4% ㅇ (GVC ) : ㅇ - -FTA ㅇ ㅇ元 ㅇ - : - FTA : 3, ㅇ : 14 ㅇ : 15 - * : - 27 -
2. 11 * 5, 2, () 3, 1 ㅇ ( ) * ( ) 6 ( ), ㅇ ( ) 45.6% - (), - (),, ㅇ ( ) 26.3%,, - (),, FTA, - () ㅇ ( ) 19.1% - (), FTA, - () - 28 -
ㅇ ( ), 4.5%, 17 - (), - () ㅇ () 0.6% - (), FTA, - () ㅇ ( ),, (2.8%) - (), FTA, - () () - 29 -
구분업종 * BEC < > 구성비 2015 2016(1~11 월 ) 수출증가율 구성비수출증가율 수출전망 ** 100.0-8.0 100.0-9.7 -, 1 21 0.9-9.4 0.9-4.3 -, FTA -, 22 25.4-28.8 26.3-4.3 - (),, FTA() - () ( ) ( ) 42 45.2 6.5 45.6-10.0 53 3.9-4.9 4.5 3.7 41 21.0-3.2 19.1-18.2 - () - () GVC, - () - () - (), FTA - () 112 0.1-10.8 0.1 43.4 - (), FTA 122 0.4 20.9 0.5 15.5 - () ( ) () 51 0.7-38.3 0.1-88.7 - () 61 0.5-6.2 0.4-18.8 62 0.7 11.4 0.7-1.3 - (), FTA - () ( ) () 63 1.2 31.3 1.6 11.1 * : UN (Broad Economic Categories(BEC)) 0.5% ( (111), (31), (121), (322), (521), ) ** : 5 (,,,, ) - 30 -
IV. 시사점과대중수출확대방안 ㅇ () 中, -,, IT,,, -, 분야 업종 () ㅇ, ㅇ, - ( ) :, * - FTA : 17 FTA 3 *, FTA - 31 -
- : *, - -, PPP, FTA ㅇ 17, ㅇ - 32 -
작성자 중국사업단정환우조사담당관 KOCHI 자료 17-001 2016 년對中수출평가와 2017 년전망 발행인발행처발행일주소전화홈페이지문의처 김재홍 KOTRA 2017년 2월서울시서초구헌릉로 13 (06792) 02) 1600-7119( 대표 ) www.kotra.or.kr 중국사업단 (02-3460-7412) ISBN : 979-11-6097-107-1 (95320)
2016 년對中수출평가와 2017 년전망