Industry Update 2018. 12. 3 Overweight (Maintain) 반도체 [Nov'18] DRAM, NAND 산업동향 반도체 / 디스플레이 Analyst 박유악 02) 3787-5063 yuak.pak@kiwoom.com 11 월 DRAM 평균가격은 PC -2.4%MoM 와 Server -2.9%MoM 하락. 경기불확실성확대, CPU 공급부족, 추가가격하락기대감등으로인한고객사들의재고축적수요둔화때문. 11 월 NAND 가격은 MLC Flat, TLC -12%MoM 각각기록. 분기말출하목표치를맞추기위한마이크론의재고소진과정에서 TLC 제품의가격급락발생. DRAM 은연말 / 연초를지나공급주도의수급개선이가시화되고, NAND 는 1Q19 큰폭의공급과잉후수급개선세에진입할것이라는기존판단유지함. PC DRAM 가격추이 (USD) Spot Price's Premium( 우 ) 1.5 DDR4 1Gb Eq. Spot Price DDR4 1Gb Eq. Contract Price 60% 11 월 PC DRAM 고정가격 -2.4%MoM 시장조사기관인 DRAMeXchange 가 11 월 Memory 반도체의고정가격을 발표했다. 1.0 0.5 0.0 '15/09 '16/09 '17/09 '18/09 자료 : DRAMeXchange, 키움증권리서치센터 NAND 가격추이 (USD) Spot Price's Premium( 우 ) 9.0 NAND 64Gb MLC Spot Price NAND 64Gb MLC Contract Price 7.0 5.0 3.0 30% 0% -30% 60% 40% 20% 0% 11월 PC DRAM의평균가격은 $0.94/Gb(-2.4%MoM) 로, 하락세가지속됐다. 글로벌경기불확실성확대, CPU 공급부족등의영향으로인해 DRAM 의유통재고가상승했고, 계절적비수기인 1Q19에 DRAM의추가가격하락이있을것이라는기대감이고객사들의재고축적의지를약화시킨것으로판단된다. 11 월 Server DRAM 고정가격 -2.9%MoM 11월 Server DRAM의평균가격은 $1.20/Gb(-2.9%MoM) 로, 하락세가지속됐다. 연중 Tight했던수급이안정화됨에따라, Server DRAM 공급의수요충족률은현재 100% 수준에근접한것으로파악된다. Server DRAM은 1Q19까지의수요둔화를겪은뒤, 신규 CPU Platform이출시되는 2Q19부터큰폭의수요성장세에재진입할전망이다. 글로벌경기불확실성확대가 DRAM 업체들의 CapEx 감축으로이어지고있기때문에, 2Q19부터의 DRAM 수급개선강도는더욱강하게나타날것이다. 1.0-20% '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 자료 : DRAMeXchange, 키움증권리서치센터 Compliance Notice 당사는 11월 30일현재상기에언급된종목들의발행주식을 1% 이상보유하고있지않습니다. 당사는동자료를기관투자가또는제3자에게사전제공한사실이없습니다. 동자료의금융투자분석사는자료작성일현재동자료상에언급된기업들의금융투자상품및권리를보유하고있지않습니다. 동자료에게시된내용들은본인의의견을정확하게반영하고있으며, 외부의부당한압력이나간섭없이작성되었음을확인합니다. 11 월 NAND 고정가격 -5.9%MoM 11월 NAND의평균가격은 $0.18/GB(-5.9%MoM) 로, 하락세가지속됐다. 주요제품중 SLC와 MLC 제품가격은전월수준을유지한반면, TLC 제품의가격은 -12.5%MoM 추가하락했다. TLC 제품의가격하락은분기말출하량목표치를맞추기위한마이크론의재고정책때문인것으로파악된다. 이로인해 4Q18 NAND의평균가격은업체별로 -14% ~ -18%QoQ 수준을기록하며, 당초예상치를소폭하회할것으로보인다. NAND의가격은연말 / 연초의하락시기를거친뒤, 2Q19부터는수요의계절적성수기진입과해외업체의증설지연등의효과로인해안정화될전망이다. 삼성전자 (BUY, TP 58,000원 ) 와 SK하이닉스 (BUY, TP 110,000원 ) 의 4Q18 NAND 부문실적전망치를소폭하향조정한다.
DRAM, NAND 가격추이 ( 단위 : USD) Nov.17 Dec.17 Jan.18 Feb.18 Mar.18 Apr.18 May.18 Jun.18 Jul.18 Aug.18 Sep.18 Oct.18 Nov.18 PC DRAM [1Gb Eq] 0.98 0.98 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.07 0.96 0.94 %MoM 2.5% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% -10.2% -2.4% DDR4 8Gb Spot 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 DDR4 8Gb Contract 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 DDR4 4GB UDIMM 31 31 33 33 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 31 30 DDR4 8GB UDIMM 63 63 66 66 66 68 68 68 68 68 68 61 60 Server DIMM [1Gb Eq] 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.28 1.29 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.23 1.20 %MoM 2.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% -6.2% -2.9% DDR4 8GB RDIMM 81 82 84 84 85 86 87 88 89 89 89 84 81 DDR4 16GB RDIMM 154 158 159 161 162 164 166 168 169 169 169 159 154 DDR4 32GB RDIMM 290 293 299 302 305 310 313 316 317 317 317 295 286 Mobile DRAM [1Gb Eq] 0.91 0.91 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.92 0.92 %MoM 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.4% 0.0% LPDDR3 2GB 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 LPDDR3 3GB 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 LPDDR4X 4GB 28 28 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 LPDDR4X 6GB 42 42 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 NAND [1GB Eq] 0.31 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.19 0.18 %MoM -0.5% -1.7% -6.6% -3.7% -2.4% -3.8% -4.3% -2.2% -6.6% -4.4% -5.1% -6.5% -5.9% MLC 128Gb Spot 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 MLC 128Gb Contract 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 TLC 128Gb Contract 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 TLC 256Gb Contract 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 emmc/ufs [1GB Eq] 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.26 0.26 %MoM 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% 0.0% 0.0% -5.2% 0.0% 0.0% -7.0% 0.0% 0.0% -11.2% 0.0% emmc 16GB(TLC) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 emmc 32GB(TLC) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 emmc 64GB(TLC) 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 16 16 UFS 32GB 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 UFS 64GB 22 22 21 21 21 20 20 20 18 18 18 17 17 UFS 128GB 43 43 42 42 42 37 37 37 34 34 34 29 29 자료 : DRAMeXchange, 키움증권리서치센터 2
삼성전자연결실적 Update ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 4Q18E 2018E 수정전 수정후 증감률 컨센서스 차이 수정전 수정후 증감률 매출액 65,724 65,313-1% 66,293-1% 250,230 249,819 0% Semiconductor 24,135 23,695-2% - - 91,678 91,239 0% Display Panel 10,326 10,326 0% - - 33,616 33,616 0% IT&Mobile 23,898 23,898 0% - - 101,256 101,256 0% Consumer Electronics 11,871 11,871 0% - - 42,193 42,193 0% 영업이익 16,299 15,927-2% 16,235-2% 64,385 64,013-1% Semiconductor 12,795 12,424-3% - - 49,602 49,230-1% Display Panel 928 928 0% - - 2,486 2,483 0% IT&Mobile 1,930 1,930 0% - - 10,590 10,590 0% Consumer Electronics 615 615 0% - - 1,962 1,962 0% 영업이익률 24.8% 24.4% 24.5% 25.7% 25.6% 당기순이익 12,200 11,927-2% 12,483-4% 48,083 47,810-1% 당기순이익률 18.6% 18.3% 18.8% 19.2% 19.1% 자료 : WiseFn Consensus, 키움증권리서치센터 SK 하이닉스연결실적 Update ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 4Q18E 2018E 수정전수정후증감률컨센서스차이수정전수정후증감률 DRAM Bit Growth 4% 4% 21% 21% ASP/Gb 변화율 -7% -7% 22% 22% NAND Bit Growth 29% 29% 43% 43% ASP/Gb 변화율 -12% -14% -15% -15% 매출액 11,305 11,252 0% 11,419-1% 41,812 41,759 0% DRAM 8,827 8,827 0% 33,210 33,210 0% NAND 2,332 2,279-2% 7,956 7,903-1% 영업이익 6,066 6,020-1% 5,971 1% 22,479 22,434 0% 영업이익률 53.7% 53.5% 52.3% 53.8% 53.7% 당기순이익 4,446 4,412-1% 4,432 0% 16,587 16,554 0% 당기순이익률 39.3% 39.2% 38.8% 39.7% 39.6% 자료 : WiseFn Consensus, 키움증권리서치센터 3
삼성전자연결실적추이및전망 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18E 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 2017 2018E 2019E 매출액 60,564 58,483 65,460 65,313 61,322 58,432 61,478 63,903 239,575 249,819 245,134 %QoQ/%YoY -8% -3% 12% 0% -6% -5% 5% 4% 19% 4% -2% Semiconductor 20,783 21,992 24,768 23,695 21,126 21,726 23,523 24,008 74,256 91,239 90,383 Memory 17,331 18,501 21,050 20,070 17,422 17,939 19,644 20,242 60,293 76,952 75,246 System LSI 3,072 3,167 3,529 3,279 3,296 3,442 3,686 3,412 12,601 13,047 13,836 Display Panel 7,537 5,666 10,088 10,326 8,780 7,484 8,909 10,097 34,465 33,616 35,271 LCD 2,127 1,876 2,182 2,213 1,846 1,532 1,677 2,052 10,416 8,398 7,108 OLED 5,418 3,652 6,742 6,475 5,938 4,660 6,028 6,357 22,963 22,287 22,982 IT & Mobile 28,450 23,995 24,913 23,898 27,860 22,594 23,460 22,895 106,668 101,256 96,809 무선사업부 27,661 22,670 23,993 23,444 27,013 21,908 22,271 21,951 103,705 97,768 93,144 네트워크 / 기타 789 1,325 920 454 847 686 1,189 944 2,963 3,488 3,666 Consumer Electronics 9,742 10,401 10,179 11,871 9,578 10,196 9,800 11,284 45,109 42,193 40,857 VD 5,840 5,942 5,981 7,412 5,473 5,534 5,583 6,821 27,527 25,175 23,410 매출원가 31,909 31,275 35,194 36,852 34,780 33,716 34,318 36,413 129,291 135,230 139,227 매출원가율 53% 53% 54% 56% 57% 58% 56% 57% 54% 54% 57% 매출총이익 28,654 27,208 30,266 28,461 26,541 24,716 27,160 27,490 110,285 114,589 105,907 판매비와관리비 13,012 12,339 12,691 12,564 12,482 11,298 11,882 12,180 56,640 50,606 47,843 영업이익 15,642 14,869 17,575 15,927 14,080 13,432 15,288 15,317 53,645 64,013 58,118 %QoQ/%YoY 3% -5% 18% -9% -12% -5% 14% 0% 83% 19% -9% Semiconductor 11,550 11,606 13,650 12,424 10,214 10,401 11,551 11,718 35,204 49,230 43,883 %QoQ/%YoY 6% 0% 18% -9% -18% 2% 11% 1% 159% 40% -11% Display Panel 408 136 1,101 928 192 216 973 1,057 5,433 2,483 2,439 %QoQ/%YoY -71% -67% 712% -16% -79% 13% 350% 9% 144% -54% -2% IT & Mobile 3,770 2,669 2,221 1,930 3,265 2,240 2,160 1,911 11,827 10,590 9,575 %QoQ/%YoY 56% -29% -17% -13% 69% -31% -4% -12% 9% -10% -10% Consumer Electronics 275 513 559 615 389 560 594 624 1,653 1,962 2,167 %QoQ/%YoY -46% 86% 9% 10% -37% 44% 6% 5% -37% 19% 10% 영업이익률 26% 25% 27% 24% 23% 23% 25% 24% 22% 26% 24% Semiconductor 56% 53% 55% 52% 48% 48% 49% 49% 47% 54% 49% Display Panel 5% 2% 11% 9% 2% 3% 11% 10% 16% 7% 7% IT & Mobile 13% 11% 9% 8% 12% 10% 9% 8% 11% 10% 10% Consumer Electronics 3% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 4% 5% 5% 법인세차감전순이익 16,176 15,407 17,969 16,297 14,415 13,739 15,596 15,626 56,196 65,849 59,375 법인세비용 4,487 4,363 4,819 4,370 3,865 3,684 4,182 4,190 14,009 18,040 15,922 당기순이익 11,689 11,043 13,151 11,927 10,549 10,055 11,414 11,436 42,187 47,810 43,453 당기순이익률 19% 19% 20% 18% 17% 17% 19% 18% 18% 19% 18% 총포괄손익 12,611 12,270 11,389 12,029 10,639 10,141 11,511 11,533 36,685 48,299 43,824 지배주주지분 12,517 12,189 11,210 11,840 10,472 9,982 11,330 11,352 35,888 47,755 43,136 KRW/USD 1,070 1,082 1,121 1,120 1,115 1,120 1,115 1,110 1,130 1,099 1,115 자료 : 키움증권리서치센터 4
삼성전자연결실적추이및전망 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18E 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 2017 2018E 2019E 매출액 60,564 58,483 65,460 65,313 61,322 58,432 61,478 63,903 239,575 249,819 245,134 %YoY 20% -4% 5% -1% 1% 0% -6% -2% 19% 4% -2% Semiconductor 20,783 21,992 24,768 23,695 21,126 21,726 23,523 24,008 74,256 91,239 90,383 Memory 17,331 18,501 21,050 20,070 17,422 17,939 19,644 20,242 60,293 76,952 75,246 DRAM 11,079 12,043 14,257 14,059 12,482 12,770 13,593 13,989 36,827 51,438 52,833 NAND 6,252 6,458 6,793 6,011 4,940 5,169 6,051 6,252 23,466 25,514 22,413 System LSI 3,072 3,167 3,529 3,279 3,296 3,442 3,686 3,412 12,601 13,047 13,836 Display Panel 7,537 5,666 10,088 10,326 8,780 7,484 8,909 10,097 34,465 33,616 35,271 LCD 2,127 1,876 2,182 2,213 1,846 1,532 1,677 2,052 10,416 8,398 7,108 OLED 5,418 3,652 6,742 6,475 5,938 4,660 6,028 6,357 22,963 22,287 22,982 IT&Mobile 28,450 23,995 24,913 23,898 27,860 22,594 23,460 22,895 106,668 101,256 96,809 무선사업부 27,661 22,670 23,993 23,444 27,013 21,908 22,271 21,951 103,705 97,768 93,144 네트워크 / 기타 789 1,325 920 454 847 686 1,189 944 2,963 3,488 3,666 Consumer Electronics 9,742 10,401 10,179 11,871 9,578 10,196 9,800 11,284 45,109 42,193 40,857 VD 5,840 5,942 5,981 7,412 5,473 5,534 5,583 6,821 27,527 25,175 23,410 영업이익 15,642 14,869 17,575 15,927 14,080 13,432 15,288 15,317 53,645 64,013 58,118 %YoY 58% 6% 21% 5% -10% -10% -13% -4% 83% 19% -9% Semiconductor 11,550 11,606 13,650 12,424 10,214 10,401 11,551 11,718 35,204 49,230 43,883 Memory 11,065 11,345 13,072 12,011 9,773 9,886 10,941 11,364 33,525 47,493 41,964 DRAM 7,689 8,310 10,048 9,825 8,388 8,625 9,296 9,589 22,328 35,871 35,898 NAND 3,376 3,035 3,024 2,186 1,385 1,261 1,646 1,775 11,197 11,621 6,066 System LSI 347 317 476 309 340 342 474 318 1,198 1,449 1,474 Display Panel 408 136 1,101 928 192 216 973 1,057 5,433 2,483 2,439 LCD 107-57 31-42 -81-77 -13 21 1,374 39-150 OLED 301 193 1,070 970 273 293 986 1,036 4,024 2,534 2,589 IT&Mobile 3,770 2,669 2,221 1,930 3,265 2,240 2,160 1,911 11,827 10,590 9,575 Consumer Electronics 275 513 559 615 389 560 594 624 1,653 1,962 2,167 영업이익률 26% 25% 27% 24% 23% 23% 25% 24% 22% 26% 24% Semiconductor 56% 53% 55% 52% 48% 48% 49% 49% 47% 54% 49% Memory 64% 61% 62% 60% 56% 55% 56% 56% 56% 62% 56% DRAM 69% 69% 70% 70% 67% 68% 68% 69% 61% 70% 68% NAND 54% 47% 45% 36% 28% 24% 27% 28% 48% 46% 27% System LSI 11% 10% 13% 9% 10% 10% 13% 9% 10% 11% 11% Display Panel 5% 2% 11% 9% 2% 3% 11% 10% 16% 7% 7% LCD 5% -3% 1% -2% -4% -5% -1% 1% 13% 0% -2% OLED 6% 5% 16% 15% 5% 6% 16% 16% 18% 11% 11% IT&Mobile 13% 11% 9% 8% 12% 10% 9% 8% 11% 10% 10% Consumer Electronics 3% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 4% 5% 5% KRW/USD 1,070 1,082 1,121 1,120 1,115 1,120 1,115 1,110 1,130 1,099 1,115 자료 : 키움증권리서치센터 5
삼성전자연결실적추이및전망 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18E 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 2017 2018E 2019E DRAM 출하량 [ 백만개. 1Gb Eq] 10,312 10,878 12,401 13,021 12,761 13,399 14,471 14,905 38,956 46,613 55,536 %QoQ/%YoY -1% 5% 14% 5% -2% 5% 8% 3% 15% 20% 19% ASP/1Gb [USD] 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 %QoQ/%YoY 6% 2% 0% -6% -9% -3% -1% 0% 48% 20% -15% Cost/1Gb [USD] 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 %QoQ/%YoY -10% 3% -5% -4% -1% -4% -4% 0% -3% -8% -10% 영업이익 /1Gb [USD] 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 영업이익률 69% 69% 70% 70% 67% 68% 68% 69% 61% 70% 68% NAND 출하량 [ 백만개. 1Gb Eq] 18,188 21,098 25,528 27,570 26,467 29,644 35,572 38,062 65,424 92,383 129,745 %QoQ/%YoY -5% 16% 21% 8% -4% 12% 20% 7% 27% 41% 40% ASP/1Gb [USD] 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 %QoQ/%YoY -2% -12% -16% -18% -14% -7% -2% -3% 23% -21% -38% Cost/1Gb [USD] 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 %QoQ/%YoY -5% 1% -12% -6% -3% -2% -6% -5% -14% -18% -17% 영업이익 /1Gb [USD] 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 영업이익률 54% 47% 45% 36% 28% 24% 27% 28% 48% 46% 27% LCD 출하면적 ['000m 2 ] 7,829 7,050 7,991 8,712 7,287 6,386 7,231 8,978 31,066 31,583 29,881 %QoQ/%YoY -7% -10% 13% 9% -16% -12% 13% 24% -4% 2% -5% ASP/m 2 [USD] 254 246 244 227 227 214 208 206 296 242 213 %QoQ/%YoY -1% -3% -1% -7% 0% -6% -3% -1% -2% -18% -12% OLED 출하면적 ['000m 2 ] 931 786 892 794 778 724 832 890 3,295 3,403 3,224 %QoQ/%YoY -12% -16% 14% -11% -2% -7% 15% 7% 11% 3% -5% ASP/m 2 [USD] 5,436 4,294 6,742 7,282 6,845 5,750 6,497 6,432 6,190 5,945 6,395 %QoQ/%YoY -29% -21% 57% 8% -6% -16% 13% -1% 33% -4% 8% Smartphone 출하량 [ 백만개 ] 78 72 72 74 75 68 69 71 318 296 284 %QoQ/%YoY 5% -9% 1% 2% 2% -9% 1% 3% 3% -7% -4% ASP/Unit [USD] 280 248 246 234 285 240 244 234 243 252 251 %QoQ/%YoY 10% -12% -1% -5% 22% -16% 2% -4% 5% 4% 0% TV Set 출하량 [ 백만개 ] 10 9 10 13 9 9 9 13 48 43 42 %QoQ/%YoY -29% -6% 5% 41% -30% -7% 5% 38% 0% -9% -3% ASP/Unit [USD] 563 603 557 490 520 562 543 483 519 566 547 %QoQ/%YoY 1% 7% -8% -12% 6% 8% -3% -11% -5% 9% -3% 자료 : 키움증권리서치센터 6
SK 하이닉스연결실적추이및전망 ( 단위 : 십억원 ) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18E 1Q19E 2Q19E 3Q19E 4Q19E 2017 2018E 2019E DRAM 출하량 [ 백만1Gb] 6,910 7,982 8,381 8,716 8,455 9,131 9,953 10,251 26,390 31,989 37,790 %QoQ/%YoY -5% 16% 5% 4% -3% 8% 9% 3% 25% 21% 18% ASP/Gb [USD] 0.93 0.97 0.97 0.90 0.82 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.94 0.79 %QoQ/%YoY 9% 4% 1% -7% -9% -4% -2% 0% 52% 22% -16% Cost/Gb [USD] 0.37 0.36 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.30 0.36 0.35 0.31 %QoQ/%YoY 5% -2% -9% 0% 0% -4% -5% 0% -5% -3% -11% Operating Profits/Gb [USD] 0.56 0.60 0.64 0.57 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.42 0.60 0.48 OPm/Gb 61% 63% 66% 64% 60% 60% 61% 62% 54% 63% 61% NAND 출하량 [ 백만개. 1GB Eq] 6,033 7,209 8,543 11,021 9,698 10,668 11,735 13,026 22,943 32,805 45,126 %QoQ/%YoY -10% 19% 19% 29% -12% 10% 10% 11% 17% 43% 38% ASP/GB [USD] 0.26 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.26 0.22 0.15 %QoQ/%YoY -1% -9% -10% -14% -13% -7% -2% -3% 34% -15% -32% Cost/GB [USD] 0.22 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.21 0.18 0.14 %QoQ/%YoY 6% -11% -15% -10% 3% -6% -7% -5% 8% -14% -21% Operating Profits/GB [USD] 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.01 OPm/Gb 16% 18% 22% 19% 3% 2% 7% 9% 20% 19% 6% 매출액 8,720 10,371 11,417 11,252 9,608 10,023 10,756 11,050 30,109 41,759 41,436 QoQ Growth -3% 19% 10% -1% -15% 4% 7% 3% 75% 39% -1% DRAM 6,916 8,332 9,135 8,827 7,757 8,096 8,609 8,845 23,066 33,210 33,307 NAND 1,700 1,867 2,056 2,279 1,737 1,785 1,916 2,054 6,696 7,903 7,492 매출원가 3,383 3,762 3,872 4,125 3,953 4,098 4,241 4,285 12,702 15,142 16,577 매출원가율 39% 36% 34% 37% 41% 41% 39% 39% 42% 36% 40% 매출총이익 5,336 6,608 7,545 7,127 5,655 5,924 6,515 6,765 17,408 26,617 24,859 판매비와관리비 969 1,034 1,073 1,107 978 1,021 1,095 1,125 3,686 4,183 4,220 영업이익 4,367 5,574 6,472 6,020 4,676 4,904 5,419 5,640 13,721 22,434 20,639 QoQ Growth -2% 28% 16% -7% -22% 5% 11% 4% 319% 63% -8% DRAM 4,185 5,208 6,029 5,612 4,664 4,868 5,294 5,462 12,485 21,034 20,288 NAND 272 336 452 425 56 40 134 184 1,333 1,485 413 영업이익률 50% 54% 57% 54% 49% 49% 50% 51% 46% 54% 50% DRAM 61% 63% 66% 64% 60% 60% 61% 62% 54% 63% 61% NAND 16% 18% 22% 19% 3% 2% 7% 9% 20% 19% 6% 법인세차감전손익 4,291 5,903 6,435 6,052 4,642 4,945 5,465 5,686 13,440 22,681 20,739 법인세비용 1,169 1,575 1,743 1,639 1,258 1,340 1,480 1,540 2,797 6,127 5,618 당기순이익 3,121 4,329 4,692 4,412 3,385 3,606 3,984 4,146 10,642 16,554 15,120 당기순이익률 36% 42% 41% 39% 35% 36% 37% 38% 35% 40% 36% KRW/USD 1,072 1,080 1,121 1,120 1,115 1,120 1,115 1,110 1,128 1,100 1,115 자료 : 키움증권리서치센터 7
투자의견변동내역 (2 개년 ) 목표 괴리율 (%) 목표 괴리율 (%) 종목명 일자 투자의견 목표주가 가격평균최고가격종목명일자투자의견목표주가평균최고대상주가주가대상주가주가 시점 대비 대비 시점 대비 대비 삼성전자 2016-10-31 BUY(Maintain) 39,000원 6개월 -17.86-12.51 SK하이닉스 2016-11-14 BUY(Maintain) 53,000원 6개월 -22.17-18.87 (005930) 2016-11-14 BUY(Maintain) 39,000원 6개월 -17.98-12.51 (000660) 2016-11-23 BUY(Maintain) 53,000원 6개월 -20.71-12.74 2016-11-23 BUY(Maintain) 39,000원 6개월 -17.76-12.51 2016-12-14 BUY(Maintain) 59,000원 6개월 -21.26-12.54 2016-11-30 BUY(Maintain) 39,000원 6개월 -16.39-7.95 2017-01-12 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -26.69-25.59 2016-12-20 BUY(Maintain) 39,000원 6개월 -15.13-6.46 2017-01-19 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -25.19-21.62 2017-01-09 BUY(Maintain) 39,000원 6개월 -14.38-0.51 2017-01-31 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -24.98-21.03 2017-01-19 BUY(Maintain) 39,000원 6개월 -13.97-0.51 2017-02-01 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -24.22-20.59 2017-01-25 BUY(Maintain) 42,000원 6개월 -5.32-5.00 2017-02-06 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -24.46-19.71 2017-02-01 BUY(Maintain) 44,000원 6개월 -10.52-10.32 2017-02-17 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -26.54-19.71 2017-02-06 BUY(Maintain) 44,000원 6개월 -9.74-3.27 2017-03-29 BUY(Maintain) 72,000원 6개월 -29.91-27.22 2017-03-28 BUY(Maintain) 48,000원 6개월 -13.26-12.21 2017-04-26 BUY(Maintain) 72,000원 6개월 -26.65-20.97 2017-04-07 BUY(Maintain) 48,000원 6개월 -13.16-8.67 2017-05-24 BUY(Maintain) 72,000원 6개월 -25.49-19.58 2017-04-28 BUY(Maintain) 52,000원 6개월 -12.58-9.58 2017-06-08 BUY(Maintain) 72,000원 6개월 -24.49-15.83 2017-05-24 BUY(Maintain) 52,000원 6개월 -12.50-9.58 2017-06-19 BUY(Maintain) 83,000원 6개월 -19.52-14.94 2017-06-08 BUY(Maintain) 52,000원 6개월 -12.46-9.58 2017-07-14 BUY(Maintain) 95,000원 6개월 -24.96-23.16 2017-06-15 BUY(Maintain) 56,000원 6개월 -15.57-13.75 2017-07-25 BUY(Maintain) 95,000원 6개월 -28.60-23.16 2017-07-07 BUY(Maintain) 56,000원 6개월 -13.24-8.57 2017-09-11 BUY(Maintain) 95,000원 6개월 -21.34-6.21 2017-07-27 BUY(Maintain) 58,000원 6개월 -18.96-14.14 2017-11-06 BUY(Maintain) 120,000원 6개월 -31.41-27.67 2017-09-10 BUY(Maintain) 62,000원 6개월 -16.78-11.61 2017-12-05 BUY(Maintain) 120,000원 6개월 -34.09-27.67 2017-10-13 BUY(Maintain) 62,000원 6개월 -14.85-7.71 2018-01-15 BUY(Maintain) 120,000원 6개월 -34.71-27.67 2017-11-06 BUY(Maintain) 70,000원 6개월 -20.52-18.91 2018-01-25 BUY(Maintain) 120,000원 6개월 -35.27-27.67 2017-11-29 BUY(Maintain) 70,000원 6개월 -20.97-18.91 2018-02-07 BUY(Maintain) 120,000원 6개월 -35.50-27.67 2017-12-01 BUY(Maintain) 76,000원 6개월 -33.39-31.42 2018-02-13 BUY(Maintain) 120,000원 6개월 -35.44-27.67 2018-01-15 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -26.80-24.68 2018-03-08 BUY(Maintain) 120,000원 6개월 -34.06-24.42 2018-01-31 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -27.46-24.68 2018-04-18 BUY(Maintain) 120,000원 6개월 -33.89-24.42 2018-02-07 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -28.69-24.68 2018-04-24 BUY(Maintain) 120,000원 6개월 -33.61-24.42 2018-02-13 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -29.37-24.68 2018-05-29 BUY(Maintain) 135,000원 6개월 -34.87-29.63 2018-03-07 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -28.37-23.85 2018-07-19 BUY(Maintain) 135,000원 6개월 -34.92-29.63 2018-04-09 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -27.03-22.06 2018-07-24 BUY(Maintain) 135,000원 6개월 -35.07-29.63 2018-05-29 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -27.17-24.56 2018-07-26 BUY(Maintain) 135,000원 6개월 -36.77-29.63 2018-06-21 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -28.79-24.56 2018-08-20 BUY(Maintain) 135,000원 6개월 -37.10-29.63 2018-07-06 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -30.75-24.56 2018-08-28 BUY(Maintain) 135,000원 6개월 -39.17-29.63 2018-08-20 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -30.93-24.56 2018-10-11 BUY(Maintain) 111,000원 6개월 -37.05-34.77 2018-08-28 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -31.16-24.56 2018-10-26 BUY(Maintain) 111,000원 6개월 -36.88-32.88 2018-09-20 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -31.25-24.56 2018-11-26 BUY(Maintain) 111,000원 6개월 -36.80-32.88 2018-10-08 BUY(Maintain) 68,000원 6개월 -32.05-24.56 2018-12-03 BUY(Maintain) 111,000원 6개월 2018-11-01 BUY(Maintain) 62,000원 6개월 -29.59-27.10 2018-11-26 BUY(Maintain) 58,000원 6개월 -26.28-25.60 2018-12-03 BUY(Maintain) 58,000원 6개월 * 주가는수정주가를기준으로괴리율을산출하였음. 8
목표주가추이 (2 개년 ) 삼성전자 SK 하이닉스 투자의견및적용기준 기업 적용기준 (6개월) 업종 적용기준 (6개월) Buy( 매수 ) Outperform( 시장수익률상회 ) Marketperform( 시장수익률 ) Underperform( 시장수익률하회 ) Sell( 매도 ) 시장대비 +20% 이상주가상승예상시장대비 +10 +20% 주가상승예상시장대비 +10-10% 주가변동예상시장대비-10-20% 주가하락예상시장대비-20% 이하주가하락예상 Overweight( 비중확대 ) Neutral( 중립 ) Underweight( 비중축소 ) 시장대비 +10% 이상초과수익예상시장대비 +10-10% 변동예상시장대비-10% 이상초과하락예상 투자등급비율통계 (2017/10/01~2018/09/30) 투자등급 건수 비율 (%) 매수 164 95.91% 중립 5 2.92% 매도 2 1.17% 9