2003 9
: : Harold L Vogel - Merrill Lynch 17, 10 Institutional Investor -,,,, Short Three Thousand -, : : 2003 7 ( : 2001 ) 1/20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2/20
1, (Leisure) -, ( ) - (Time not spent at work) (Recreation) - (Re + creation) - : (Entertainment) - - -, TV,,,,,, 3/20
,, 80 ( ) 1 1,200 900 600 300 0-80,, - TV (,,,,, ) 40% 29 39 49 59 69 79 89 99 *, **, 4/20
-, * 13 11 1992=100%(10) B 09 07 A 05 60 70 80 90 00, * = ( / ) / / ) ( ) A, A B 5/20
, - FM TV CATV AM HBO VCR CD DTV DVD 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 TV 6/20
2, -, -, - -,, -, ( ) - Bargaining Power, 7/20
- ( ) 50 GDP ( ) GDP (%) 25 40 30 20 GDP ( ) 20 15 10 - - 10 05 0 0 49 59 69 79 89 99 8/20
, TV TV - : 84%(80 ) 50% (00 ) - ( ), -, -, S/W( : ), (DVD P, PVR) TV TV 9/20
3,,, (SO*) (PP**) - 80% ( 20% ) - 70 - (HBO, CNN, ESPN ) - 300, * SO(System Operator) :, SO ** PP(Program Provider) : YTN, OCN, TV, mnet PP 10/20
11/20, -,, -,, :, - - - ( )
, VOD, VOD (Video On Demand) - -, MMDS*, SMATV**, TV 20% - - VOD, VOD, - - IP*** -, * MMDS(Multichannel Multipoint Distribution of Signal) : ** SMATV(Satellite Master Antenna Television) : *** IP : Internet Protocol 12/20
4 /, 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 7, TV (ASCAP,BMI ) / (Synchronization License Fee), 1 5 1 2 6 3 7 4 1 13/20
,, -, 10, 20 150 CAGR : 75% - - 100 50-0 CD 75 80 85 90 95 00 14/20
,, 10% Value Chain - - 12 5 30 -,, TV, - 10, 50 - - - 10% 70% - - 10% 15/20
5,, -, -, - - :, - : - : - :, - : - -,, 16/20
6 -, -,,, -,,, - - 17/20
/, / -, 50% -,,, - -, - 18/20
19/20 PC
7,,,,, /,,,,,, 20/20