2010 년도예비타당성조사보고서 지적재조사사업 공공투자관리센터 한국개발연구원
요약
요 약 제 1 장예비타당성조사의개요 1. 사업추진배경및필요성, 100,,,,, 2. 사업의목적
. 3. 사업의추진경위및추진근거 1992~1993 : 1994 : ( 2) 1995 : 1995 : 1996 : ( 1996-74) 2000 : 2001 2002 : 2004 : ( ) 2006 : 24 () 2007 : 2008 : (2008~2010) 2009 :
64( ), 65() 59( ), 12( ) < 표 1> 지적재조사사업의추진관련법규 ( 2009. 6. 9 9774) ( 2009. 12. 14 191) ( 2009.8.23 9705) 64( ). (. ).,. 2. 65(). 59( ) 642.,. 12 ( ),,.
2. 사업의내용 2011 10 < 표 2> 지적재조사사업개요 37,530 1) - - - - - - 3 7,407 2) () 2011 ~ 2020(10) 2010 < 3> [ 1] 1(:3), 2( :2(2-1), :3(2-2)), 3(:2),
3) [ 그림 1] 단계별추진전략 < 표 3> 사업계획수정안비교 37,157 37,530 3 4,678() 3 7,407 4) () G23-1(2): (5,118) -2(3): (9,360) -3(5): (22,679) -1(3): (5,536) -2(5); (28,442) -3(2): (3,552)
< 표 4> 연도별 단계별계획변경비교 ( :) 1 2 3 1 2 3 () () () () () 1 2,326 925 2 2,326 2,300 3 466 2,799 2,300 4 3,498 2,307 5 2,099 1,415 2,308 6 3,538 6,722 7 3,538 6,723 8 3,538 6,723 9 3,538 1,498 10 3,183 1,499 5,118 8,396 18,750 5,525 4,615 20,168 2,997 32,264( 5) :4,893) 33,305(:4,225) 2 3 5 3 2 3 2, [ 그림 2] 사업추진체계 지적재조사기획단 국토해양부 중앙지적재조사위원회 지적재조사지원단 시ㆍ도 시ㆍ도지적재조사위원회 지적재조사추진단 시ㆍ군ㆍ구 시ㆍ군ㆍ구지적재조사위원회 사업지구 사업지구지적재조사위원회
제 2 장기초자료분석및조사의주요쟁점 1. 지적불부합지현황 1995 0.08%, 2002 3.9%, 2007 13.8%, 2009 14.8% < 표 5> 지적불부합지조사현황 (A) (B) (A:B) 1995 33,698 99,203 28 54 0.08% 0.05% 2002 35,462 99,538 1,383 1,802 3.9% 1.8% 2007 37,157 99,720 5,119 5,546 13.8% 5.6% 2009 37,530 99,897 5,536 6,130 14.8% 6.1% 2. 우리나라지적재조사사업현황 1975 () (), (Parcel Based Land Information System, PBLIS),, (Land Management Information System, LIMS) (PBLIS) (LIMS) (Korea Land
Information System, KLIS)',,. 2000, 2001,, 2001 20, 2006 131 43 2006 24 (),, 2007 10 (2008~2010) 17 8,772. 53%, 36% 3. 해외지적재조사사업현황 50%, 66% 6) 1951, 1962 1963~1972 10 1
1800 1976 1988. < 표 6> 해외지적재조사현황 () ( - ) (138) (122) -, - - - - - - - 51(60) 73 10(38) 49% () (7) (100%) (50%), (25%) (25%) (50%), (50%) 4. 관련법안및상위계획 가. 사업추진관련법안검토, 12, (),
65 나. 관련계획검토 GIS GIS 1995 5, 3 GIS 3 GIS (2006~2010) 4 (2010~2015) (2010. 03.) DB DB, DB (),
5. 예비타당성조사의주요쟁점 가. 사업계획및추진상의쟁점 2010 1(:2 ), 2(:3), 3(:5), () 2,, 1(:3), 2(:2(2-1 ), :3(2-2)), 3(:2), 1 2 3, 1, 10, -
, B/C 3 2010 3 3 3,,,, 3.,,, ( ) 나. 기술적타당성및비용추정의쟁점 1~3 50% (3 1) -, 2 1 50%, 2-1 50%, 2-2 3 67% (2 1).,
, 1-1 :, 50% - 2 :, 50% - 3 :, 50% 2-1 :, 50% - 2-1 :, 50% ( 3 1) - 2-2 3 :, 67%. 21 50% 17% 1 2, 1 2 55%. 1, 2 다. 편익추정및경제성분석의쟁점,,,,
2006 () ( ),, -, - (,, ), (, ) -,,, -,
-, (CVM) -, -,. -, CVM -, CVM - (),, CVM - CVM (, ), CVM - CVM. (),
-. () -, CVM., CVM -.,, CVM (WTP) -, - - DB, -
- - 15 1, 2011 2020 2021 30 2050, (2008~2010),,, 제 3 장비용추정 1. 비용추정의방법과범위 (5)
,,,,,,,, S/W, H/W HelpDesk. KLIS, 2. 비용추정결과 2 1, 2. 1 3 7,091, 2 2 2,112
< 표 7> 각대안비용총괄표 ( : ) (A) 1(B) 2(C) (B-A) (C-A) 1: 50% 1 2 2: 50% 2-1: 50% 3: 50% 2-2 3: 67% 3,740,670 3,709,088 2,211,171 31,582 1,529,499 54,016 54,016 54,016 - - 7) 3,114,864 3,029,506 1,667,763 85,358 1,447,101 9,447 9,447 9,447 - - 20,090 20,139 20,139 49 49 173,030 173,030 173,030 - - 369,223 422,951 286,776 53,728 82,447 : 1 :, 2 : 7) 2010, (5) 2009
< 표 8> 1 안연도별비용추정 ( : ) 50% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 1,500 3,730 3,730 3,741 3,743 10,903 10,905 10,905 2,428 2,431 54,016 90,544 224,963 224,963 244,889 244,994 550,868 550,950 550,950 173,127 173,257 3,029,506 3,149 3,149 3,149 9,447 9,168 8,531 2,439 20,139 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 173,030 12,166 25,768 25,158 26,593 26,604 57,907 57,916 57,916 19,286 19,299 328,614 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 94,337 (VAT) 133,831 283,444 276,743 294,527 294,645 638,982 642,251 638,799 214,145 214,291 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 3,709,088 (VAT) 121,664 257,676 251,584 267,752 267,859 580,893 583,865 580,727 194,677 194,810 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 3,371,899
< 표 9> 2 안연도별비용추정 ( : ) 1 50% 2-1 50% 2-2/3 67% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 1,500 3,730 3,730 3,741 3,743 10,903 10,905 10,905 2,428 2,431 54,016 90,544 224,963 224,963 170,026 170,100 207,407 207,438 207,438 82,410 82,474 1,667,763 3,149 3,149 3,149 9,447 9,168 8,531 2,440 20,139 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 17,303 173,030 12,166 25,768 25,158 19,107 19,115 23,561 23,565 23,565 10,214 10,221 192,439 (VAT) (VAT) 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 94,337 133,831283,444 276,743 212,178 212,262 261,175 264,388 260,936 114,356 114,430 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,001 5,177 1,725 2,001 2,001 2,211,171 121,664 257,676 251,585 192,889 192,965 237,432 240,353 237,214 103,960 104,027 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 1,819 4,706 1,568 1,819 1,819 2,010,156
제 4 장편익추정 1. 편익추정의개요, 8),,, (Contingent Valuation Method, CVM) 2. 편익의분류및정의 9), 8) :,,, 9) ( ),.
< 표 10> 편익구분및정의 - - - - - 3. 편익추정의전제및방법론 가. 편익추정의전제 10,,
< 표 11> 편익발생의전제조건 ( ), 나. 편익추정의방법론, CVM,,,
-, (, ). -,, CVM -, CVM,, CVM -,, -, CVM -, -, CVM WTP
< 표 12> 편익추정방법 CVM WTP 4. 고려사항 가. 사회적할인율적용 KDI (5): 5.5% 나. 편익추정기간
,,, 30, 30 (, 10 ) 다. 편익의발생및실현. 2011 2020 2021 30, ( < 13> ),,, (Time Lag)
, 5 100% (< 14> ) - 5 < 표 13> 연도별단계별사업대상필지 1 () 2011 925 2012 2,300 2013 2,300 2() 2-1 2014 2,307 2015 2,308 2-2 2016 6,722 2017 6,723 2018 6,723 3 () 2019 1,498 2020 1,499 () 925 (2.78%) 2,300 (9.68%) 2,300 (16.59%) 2,307 (23.52%) 2,308 (30.45%) 6,722 (50.63%) 6,723 (70.82%) 6,723 (91.00%) 1,498 (95.50%) 1,499 (100%) 5,525 4,615 20,168 2,997 33,305 3 2 3 2 10 : 4,225 ( 2,041, 2,184) < 표 14> 학습효과에따른편익실현비율 1 2 3 4 5 (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100
< 표 15> 본사업에서발생하는공공업무편익의연도별편익실현율 (: %) (, ) 2011 0 2012 2.78 2013 9.68 2014 16.59 2015 23.52 2016 30.45 2017 50.63 2018 70.82 2019 91.00 2020 95.50 2021~50 100.00 < 표 16> 본사업에서발생하는정부업무편익의연도별편익실현율 ( 단위 : %) (, ) 2011 0 2012 0 2013 0 2014 3.32 2015 9.41 2016 18.27 2017 40.50 2018 70.82 2019 91.00 2020 95.50 2021~50 100.00
, 2009 5. 국민불편비용및거래비용절감편익추정 가. 조건부가치측정법 (CVM) 의개요, (constructed market) (WTP) (WTA) 나. 지적재조사사업의 CVM 조사설계 1) 대상재화의설정 WTP CVM,.
다. 설문조사방법및개요 100, 1,000, KDI, (face-to-face) 4607 ( : 4619) 1,000 라. CVM 조사편익추정결과 WTP WTP 1% < 17> < 표 17> 평균 WTP 추정결과 WTP t- 7,680.0 3.85 # : # 1%.
WTP, 2009 12 1,297.9 5.5% < 18> < 표 18> 본사업으로발생하는편익의현재가치 (2009 년말기준 ) (: ) 1 123,024 2 116,611 3 110,531 4 104,769 5 99,307 554,243
< 표 19> 국민불편비용및거래비용절감연차별총편익 (: ) 2010 129,791 123,024 - - 2011 129,791 116,611 0 0 2012 129,791 110,531 38,728 32,981 2013 129,791 104,769 38,728 31,262 2014 129,791 99,307 38,728 29,632 2015 38,728 28,087 2016 38,728 26,623 2017 38,728 25,235 2018 38,728 23,920 2019 38,728 22,673 2020 38,728 21,491 2021 38,728 20,370 2022 38,728 19,308 2023 38,728 18,302 2024 38,728 17,348 2025 38,728 16,443 2026 38,728 15,586 2027 38,728 14,773 2028 38,728 14,003 2029 38,728 13,273 2030 38,728 12,581 2031 38,728 11,925 2032 38,728 11,304 2033 38,728 10,714 2034 38,728 10,156 2035 38,728 9,626 2036 38,728 9,125 2037 38,728 8,649 2038 38,728 8,198 2039 38,728 7,771 2040 38,728 7,365 2041 38,728 6,981 2042 38,728 6,618 2043 38,728 6,273 2044 38,728 5,946 2045 38,728 5,636 2046 38,728 5,342 2047 38,728 5,063 2048 38,728 4,799 2049 38,728 4,549 2050 38,728 4,312 648,953 554,243 1,510,395 554,243
6. 지적재조사사업에따른공적업무편익추정 가. 공공업무편익 1) 중복측량및좌표도작성비용절감편익, 10 2009,.,.,, = + (
, 2000 2008 ),, (: 0.06%, : 3.98%) + (< 20~24> ) - 2009 ( 5.5%) -, - (2005~2009) 0.06% 30% -., -,, () - (2005~2009) 3.98% - 10, 5 (2005~2009). 10 5, 2000~2004 : 2005~2009 = 0.427 : 1-2000~2004 2000~2009..(< 24> )
< 표 20> 특수업무의복원측량비용잔여측량수요추정 = / 2005 2009 (0.06%) = - ( )*0.3() < 표 21> 특수업무의현황측량비용잔여측량수요추정 = / 2005 2009 (3.98%) = - ( ) < 표 22> 연도별측량복원및현황측량업무현황 (2000~2009 년 ) (: ) 2000 5,934 10,643 16,577 2001 7,869 12,323 20,192 2002 8,126 13,023 21,149 2003 9,978 15,760 25,738 2004 11,097 17,539 28,636 2005 13,970 23,649 37,619 2006 13,895 30,272 44,167 2007 15,582 42,844 58,426 2008 17,031 46,042 63,073 2009 17,441 41,815 59,256 12,092 25,391 36,898 :, 10)
< 표 23> 환산된연도별복원및현황측량비용 (2000~2009 년 ) (5.5%) (5.5%) (0.06%) (3.98%) 2001 12,076 18,912 12,074 18,159 2002 11,821 18,944 11,819 18,189 2003 13,759 21,731 13,756 20,865 2004 14,503 22,923 14,501 22,010 2005 17,307 29,297 17,303 28,130 2006 16,316 35,547 16,313 34,131 2007 17,343 47,687 17,339 45,788 2009 17,441 41,815 17,437 40,150 (: ) 15,071 29,607 15,067 28,428 :,, 11) < 표 24> 예상좌표도작성평균비용추정 (: ) 5 5 2000 2001 2002 22,458(0.427) 3,835(0.427) 2003 2004 2005 5,057 2006 7,317 2007 52,508(1) 12,937 8,966(1) 2008 10,444 2009 9,073 6,400 :, 12) 10) (-2505) 11) (-2478) 12) (-2479)
= = (15,067) + (28,428) + (6,400) = 49,896()
< 표 25> 중복측량비용절감연차별총편익 () 2011 2.78% 0% 0 2012 9.68% 2.78% 1,387 2013 16.59% 9.68% 4,830 2014 23.52% 16.59% 8,278 2015 30.45% 23.52% 11,735 2016 50.63% 30.45% 15,193 2017 70.82% 50.63% 25,262 2018 91.00% 70.82% 35,336 2019 95.50% 91.00% 45,405 2020 100.00% 95.50% 47,650 2021 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2022 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2023 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2024 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2025 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2026 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2027 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2028 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2029 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2030 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2031 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2032 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2033 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2034 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2035 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2036 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2037 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2038 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2039 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2040 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2041 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2042 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2043 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2044 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2045 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2046 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2047 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2048 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2049 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 2050 100.00% 100.00% 49,896 1,691,946
나. 정부업무편익 1) 지적행정효율화편익 DB 100%, (C/S).,,, = = < 표 26> 지적행정효율화편익추정을위한구성요소 (2009 7 10 ) [] ( 21979, 2010.1.7,) 17,000 [] (2010. 5) 23.7 (0.395) 13) [] (2010) ( -13, 2010.1.7.) 2,656
= = = (17,000 0.395 2,656 264) = 4,708,450,560 = 4,708() 13) 500. 1(31.7%)
< 표 27> 지적행정효율화연차별총편익 () 2011 2.78% 0% 0% 0 2012 9.68% 0% 0% 0 2013 ( ) 16.59% 0% 0% 0 2014 23.52% 20% 3.32% 156 2015 30.45% 40% 9.41% 443 2016 50.63% 60% 18.27% 860 2017 70.82% 80% 40.50% 1,907 2018 91.00% 100% 70.82% 3,335 2019 95.50% 100% 91.00% 4,285 2020 100.00% 100% 95.50% 4,497 2021 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2022 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2023 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2024 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2025 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2026 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2027 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2028 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2029 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2030 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2031 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2032 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2033 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2034 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2035 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2036 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2037 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2038 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2039 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2040 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2041 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2042 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2043 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2044 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2045 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2046 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2047 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2048 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2049 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 2050 100.00% 100% 100.00% 4,708 156,736
2) 부동산공부처리편익, 15(,,, ) 15 1, = < 표 28> 부동산공부처리일원화편익추정을위한구성요소 (2009 7 10 ) [] ( 17,000 21979, 2010.1.7., ) [] (2010) ( -13, 2010.1.7.) 937 3,487 1 [] (2010) ( -13, 3,487 2010.1.7.) (2010. 7), ( 8% 14) ) [] (2010. 5) 22% 14)., 8%.
= = = ( ) + ( ) = (17,000 0.22 937 264) + (17,000 0.22 3487 0.08 264) = 1,200,590,266 = 1,201()
< 표 29> 부동산공부처리비용절감연차별총편익 () 2011 2.78% 0% 0% 0 2012 9.68% 0% 0% 0 2013 ( ) 16.59% 0% 0% 0 2014 23.52% 20% 3.32% 40 2015 30.45% 40% 9.41% 113 2016 50.63% 60% 18.27% 219 2017 70.82% 80% 40.50% 486 2018 91.00% 100% 70.82% 850 2019 95.50% 100% 91.00% 1,093 2020 100.00% 100% 95.50% 1,147 2021 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2022 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2023 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2024 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2025 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2026 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2027 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2028 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2029 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2030 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2031 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2032 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2033 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2034 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2035 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2036 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2037 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2038 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2039 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2040 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2041 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2042 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2043 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2044 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2045 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2046 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2047 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2048 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2049 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 2050 100.00% 100% 100.00% 1,201 39,965
7. 편익종합 2011~2050 3 3,990 < 표 30> 항목별총편익총합 (: ) A B C D 2011 0 0 0 0 0 2012 38,728 1,387 0 0 40,115 2013 38,728 4,830 0 0 43,558 2014 38,728 8,278 156 40 47,202 2015 38,728 11,735 443 113 51,019 2016 38,728 15,193 860 219 55,001 2017 38,728 25,262 1,907 486 66,384 2018 38,728 35,336 3,335 850 78,249 2019 38,728 45,405 4,285 1,093 89,510 2020 38,728 47,650 4,497 1,147 92,022 2021 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2022 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2023 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2024 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2025 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2026 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2027 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2028 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2029 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2030 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2031 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2032 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2033 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2034 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2035 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2036 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2037 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2038 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2039 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2040 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2041 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2042 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2043 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2044 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2045 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2046 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2047 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2048 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2049 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 2050 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 1,510,395 1,691,946 156,736 39,965 3,399,042 A-, B-, C-, D-
제 5 장경제성분석 1. 경제성분석의주요전제 / (B/C Ratio) (NPV) / (B/C Ratio) =, = = r = (5.5%) n = (NPV) = 2009 2012 2020 2021 2050 30 (5) : 5.5% 2009-69 2009, 10%
2. 경제성분석결과 < 표 31> 경제성분석결과 ( 대안 1) (:, %) B/C NPV IRR 2,310,649 1,137,700 0.49-1,172,948 - < 표 32> 경제성분석결과 ( 대안 2) (:, %) B/C NPV IRR 1,423,464 1,137,700 0.80-285,763 -
< 표 33> 경제적비용흐름 ( 대안 1) (: ) (VAT ) (VAT ) 2011 1,500 90,544 3,149 9,168 17,303 12,166 133,831 121,664 109,310 2012 3,730 224,963 3,149 8,531 17,303 25,768 283,444 257,676 219,441 2013 3,730 224,963 3,149 2,440 17,303 25,158 276,744 251,585 203,084 2014 3,741 244,889 17,303 26,593 2,001 294,527 267,752 204,866 2015 3,743 244,994 17,303 26,604 2,001 294,645 267,859 194,264 2016 10,903 550,868 17,303 57,907 2,001 638,982 580,893 399,327 2017 10,905 550,950 17,303 57,916 5,177 642,251 583,865 380,446 2018 10,905 550,950 17,303 57,916 1,725 638,799 580,727 358,674 2019 2,428 173,127 17,303 19,286 2,001 214,145 194,677 113,970 2020 2,431 173,257 17,303 19,299 2,001 214,291 194,810 108,102 2021 2,001 2,001 1,819 957 2022 5,177 5,177 4,706 2,346 2023 1,725 1,725 1,568 741 2024 2,001 2,001 1,819 815 2025 2,001 2,001 1,819 772 2026 2,001 2,001 1,819 732 2027 5,177 5,177 4,706 1,795 2028 1,725 1,725 1,568 567 2029 2,001 2,001 1,819 623 2030 2,001 2,001 1,819 591 2031 2,001 2,001 1,819 560 2032 5,177 5,177 4,706 1,374 2033 1,725 1,725 1,568 434 2034 2,001 2,001 1,819 477 2035 2,001 2,001 1,819 452 2036 2,001 2,001 1,819 429 2037 5,177 5,177 4,706 1,051 2038 1,725 1,725 1,568 332 2039 2,001 2,001 1,819 365 2040 2,001 2,001 1,819 346 2041 2,001 2,001 1,819 328 2042 5,177 5,177 4,706 804 2043 1,725 1,725 1,568 254 2044 2,001 2,001 1,819 279 2045 2,001 2,001 1,819 265 2046 2,001 2,001 1,819 251 2047 5,177 5,177 4,706 615 2048 1,725 1,725 1,568 194 2049 2,001 2,001 1,819 214 2050 2,001 2,001 1,819 203 54,016 3,029,506 9,447 20,139 173,030 328,614 94,337 3,709,088 3,371,899 2,310,649
< 표 34> 경제적비용흐름 ( 대안 2) (: ) (VAT ) (VAT ) 2011 1,500 90,544 3,149 9,168 17,303 12,166 133,830 121,664 109,309 2012 3,730 224,963 3,149 8,531 17,303 25,768 283,444 257,676 219,441 2013 3,730 224,963 3,149 2,440 17,303 25,158 276,743 251,585 203,083 2014 3,741 170,026 17,303 19,107 2,001 212,178 192,889 147,586 2015 3,743 170,100 17,303 19,115 2,001 212,262 192,965 139,947 2016 10,903 207,407 17,303 23,561 2,001 261,175 237,432 163,219 2017 10,905 207,438 17,303 23,565 5,177 264,388 240,353 156,613 2018 10,905 207,438 17,303 23,565 1,725 260,936 237,214 146,511 2019 2,428 82,410 17,303 10,214 2,001 114,356 103,960 60,861 2020 2,431 82,474 17,303 10,221 2,001 114,430 104,027 57,726 2021 2,001 2,001 1,819 957 2022 5,177 5,177 4,706 2,346 2023 1,725 1,725 1,568 741 2024 2,001 2,001 1,819 815 2025 2,001 2,001 1,819 772 2026 2,001 2,001 1,819 732 2027 5,177 5,177 4,706 1,795 2028 1,725 1,725 1,568 567 2029 2,001 2,001 1,819 623 2030 2,001 2,001 1,819 591 2031 2,001 2,001 1,819 560 2032 5,177 5,177 4,706 1,374 2033 1,725 1,725 1,568 434 2034 2,001 2,001 1,819 477 2035 2,001 2,001 1,819 452 2036 2,001 2,001 1,819 429 2037 5,177 5,177 4,706 1,051 2038 1,725 1,725 1,568 332 2039 2,001 2,001 1,819 365 2040 2,001 2,001 1,819 346 2041 2,001 2,001 1,819 328 2042 5,177 5,177 4,706 804 2043 1,725 1,725 1,568 254 2044 2,001 2,001 1,819 279 2045 2,001 2,001 1,819 265 2046 2,001 2,001 1,819 251 2047 5,177 5,177 4,706 615 2048 1,725 1,725 1,568 194 2049 2,001 2,001 1,819 214 2050 2,001 2,001 1,819 203 54,016 1,667,763 9,447 20,139 173,030 192,439 94,337 2,211,171 2,010,156 1,423,464
< 표 35> 경제적편익흐름 (: ) A B C D 2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 2012 38,728 1,387 0 0 40,115 34,163 2013 38,728 4,830 0 0 43,558 35,161 2014 38,728 8,278 156 40 47,202 36,116 2015 38,728 11,735 443 113 51,019 37,002 2016 38,728 15,193 860 219 55,001 37,810 2017 38,728 25,262 1,907 486 66,384 43,255 2018 38,728 35,336 3,335 850 78,249 48,329 2019 38,728 45,405 4,285 1,093 89,510 52,402 2020 38,728 47,650 4,497 1,147 92,022 51,064 2021 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 49,722 2022 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 47,130 2023 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 44,673 2024 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 42,344 2025 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 40,137 2026 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 38,044 2027 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 36,061 2028 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 34,181 2029 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 32,399 2030 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 30,710 2031 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 29,109 2032 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 27,592 2033 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 26,153 2034 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 24,790 2035 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 23,497 2036 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 22,272 2037 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 21,111 2038 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 20,011 2039 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 18,967 2040 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 17,979 2041 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 17,041 2042 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 16,153 2043 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 15,311 2044 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 14,513 2045 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 13,756 2046 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 13,039 2047 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 12,359 2048 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 11,715 2049 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 11,104 2050 38,728 49,896 4,708 1,201 94,533 10,525 1,510,395 1,691,946 156,736 39,965 3,399,042 1,137,700 A-, B-, C-, D-
< 1> < 표 36> 민감도분석 : 할인율 B/C NPV() 3.5% 0.62-1,012.076 4.5% 0.55-1,114,454 5.5% 0.49-1,172,948 6.5% 0.45-1,200,337 7.5% 0.41-1,205,761 < 표 37> 민감도분석 : 비용 B/C NPV() -20% 0.62-710,819-10% 0.55-941,883 0% 0.49-1,172,948 +10% 0.45-1,404,013 +20% 0.41-1,635,078 < 표 38> 민감도분석 : 편익 B/C NPV() -20% 0.39-1,400,488-20% 0.44-1,286,718 0% 0.49-1,172,948 +10% 0.54-1,059,178 +20% 0.59-945,408
< 2> < 표 39> 민감도분석 : 할인율 B/C NPV() 3.5% 1.01 21,245 4.5% 0.90-157,425 5.5% 0.80-285,763 6.5% 0.72-337,157 7.5% 0.65-441,295 < 표 40> 민감도분석 : 비용 B/C NPV() -20% 1.00-1,071-10% 0.89-143,417 0% 0.80-285,763 +10% 0.73-428,110 +20% 0.67-570,456 < 표 41> 민감도분석 : 편익 B/C NPV() -20% 0.64-513,303-20% 0.72-399,533 0% 0.80-285,763 +10% 0.88-171,993 +20% 0.96-58,223
B/C 0.9 1 Check List 2 B/C 0.9, 1 Check List 2 제 6 장정책적분석 1. 정책적분석항목 (5) < 표 42> 지적재조사사업에대한정책적분석항목
2. 지역균형발전 가. 지역낙후도 AHP 0 나. 지역경제파급효과 IRIO AHP 0 3. 정책의일관성및추진의지 가. 관련계획및정책방향과의일치성 (2009.5.22)/(2009.8.23), (2009.6.9)/(2009.12.10), GIS,
3 GIS. 4 (), 나. 사업의추진의지및선호도,, 2000 -, (),,, 다. 사업의준비정도,
,, (),.. 4. 사업추진상의위험요인 가. 재원조달가능성 100% 2011 2020 10 2 2,112 2,211 -, () 2009 112 51, () 36 87, 2010 81 56 2011 2014 7,446, 7,306
< 표 43> 국토해양부의지적구축예산현황 ( : ) ~2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 11,218 8,109 100,500 236,900 202,600 204,600-5,118 4,009 85,000 208,900 174,600 174,600 - () 3,600 1,600 12,500 25,000 25,000 25,000, SOC, 26,,, 나. 환경성 다. 단계별세부추진계획의실현가능성 10,
- 1 1 10, 2 1 22, 1 1 22 - -., 2,820, 10, 제 7 장종합결론및정책제언 1. AHP 종합평가 AHP. B/C 0.80.
AHP AHP, 0.363, 0.637, < 표 44> 각항목별가중치산정결과 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.500 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.475 0.500 0.600 0.550 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.525 0.125 0.450 0.458 0.063 0.250 0.375 0.279-0.025 0.045 0.320 0.007 0.083 0.161 0.086-0.025 0.303 0.109 0.007 0.083 0.054 0.083-0.075 0.101 0.029 0.049 0.083 0.161 0.110 0.375 0.150 0.092 0.438 0.250 0.125 0.246-0.097 0.044 0.022 0.204 0.083 0.057 0.085-0.039 0.009 0.008 0.029 0.083 0.011 0.026-0.239 0.097 0.062 0.204 0.083 0.057 0.135 < 표 45> AHP 평가결과 0.363 0.637 1 0.307 0.693 2 0.484 0.516 3 0.549 0.451 4 0.235 0.765 5 0.361 0.639 6 0.389 0.611
2. 종합결론및정책제언,,,,, 2050,,, B/C 0.80 1.0 - - -,. -, AHP, 0.363, 0.637
-., a), (), 64%,,.,, b) 1 (), 2, 3,,,,,,,,
c) 1,.,. 1 d) 2,820,. 10 -. - 2 1, GPS,
- -,. - -,,,, (), - -,,,
-, 2006 (),, - -, GIS(NGIS). 2009 -. NSDI(, National Spatial Data Infrastruc- ture) -.
< 표 46> 예비타당성조사추정결과비교 ( : ) (A) : 2 15) (B) (B-A) 2011~2020(10) 1: 50% 2: 50% 3: 50% 2-1: 50% 2-2 3: 67% 54,016 54,016-3,114,864 1,667,763 1,447,101 9,447 9,447-20,090 20,139 49 173,030 173,030-369,223 286,776 82,447 3,740,670 2,211,171 1,529,499 B/C 0.80 AHP 0.363 () : 1) 2), 3) 15) 1 3 7,091, 2