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1 w» wz, 14«4y(2012) (ISSN ) Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 4, (2012), pp. 189~195 DOI: /KJAFM Author(s) CC Attribution 3.0 License. w y» d ³ 1 Á y 1 Á 1Áû 1 Áw y 1 Á 2 Á 2,3* 1 p w, 2 w w, 3 w w ( ; ; ) Developmental Rate Equations for Predicting Blooming Date of Yumyeong (Prunus persica) Peach Trees Seok Kyu Yun 1, Kyeong Ho Chung 1, Ik Koo Yoon 1, Eun Young Nam 1, Jeom Hwa Han 1, Duk Jun Yu 2 and Hee Jae Lee 2,3* 1 Fruit Research Division, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Suwon , Korea 2 Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul , Korea 3 Department of Plant Science, Seoul National University, Seoul , Korea (Received October 30, 2012; Revised November 15, 2012; Accepted November 15, 2012) ABSTRACT To predict the blooming date of Yumyeong peach trees, the models for flower bud developmental rate (DVR) were constructed. The DVRs were calculated from the demanded times at controlled air temperatures. The branches of Yumyeong peach trees were incubated at three different temperatures of 9.7, 15.2, and 18.9 o C. The DVRs were also constructed with blooming dates and air temperatures in the field, collected from 1979 to 2008 at the experimental orchard of National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Suwon, Korea. All the DVRs increased linearly or exponentially with air temperature. The DVR equations evaluated under controlled air temperatures were y=0.0018x and y=0.0125e x. The DVR equations under field conditions were calculated as y=0.0039x and y=0.0062e x. These DVR equations offer developmental indices and predict the date for blooming with air temperature data. These DVR equations were validated against the blooming data observed in the field. When the blooming dates were calculated with exponential DVR equations and daily air temperature data, the root mean squared errors between the observed and predicted dates were around 2 days. These results suggest that the DVR models are useful to predict the blooming date of Yumyeong peach trees. Key words: Air temperature, Blooming date, Exponential equation, Prunus persica, Yumyeong I. w j. ùyƒ w» y»ƒ š,»z» y w w vw ƒ f š (Honjo, 2007). p, y»ƒ vw ƒ» y» d mw w v w. d wš. y» d k w, w z (Aoki et al., 1985) z * Corresponding Author : Hee Jae Lee (heejlee@snu.ac.kr)

2 190 Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 4 (Noro et al., 1986), (Rea and Eccel, 2006), s³» w (Aono and Omoto, 1990; Aono and Moriya, 2003; Honjo et al., 2006; Kawakami et al., 2009). y» { kq z y»¾» w, y» ƒ ƒ j w wš. p Kume and Takezawa(1994) Murakami et al.(2006, 2008, 2009) y» d w w š w. ü,, s d w 1990 s³» 5 o C ú s³ w (NAAS, 1990). s» d w ƒ w, s»» j w š(noro et al., 1986; Kwon et al., 2005), w s» d w (Yun et al., 2011). y» d w k w ¼ w x w (Behdani et al., 2008) ù w (Ono et al., 1988; Omoto and Aono, 1989; Aono and Omoto, 1990; Aono, 1993) w. Yun et al.(2011) s e w x w w» d w w. wr, y y t { kq v w w { x ywš w y v w š w» dw (Kim et al., 2009). t y yw y wš y» d ƒ mw. y 30 s w y» w x w w w, w y» d wš y» d ƒ mw. II w y t y» w» w 10, 15, 19 o C w ƒ y w w ƒ 30cm ü ¼ w w z w» y wš y 50% w ú y» w y w. x» d w w» s³ ƒƒ 9.7, 15.2, 18.9 o C s y»» p w t 1979 l 2008 ¾ y» w. y» 50%ƒ yw ú» w. z y»¾» p w ew» w w y» y» d w w De Wit et al.(1970) Horie and Nakagawa(1990)ƒ y» d w w (Yun et al., 2011). { w y»»¾» y»,» (developmental index, DVI), y (developmental rate, DVR) w. { š w DVIƒ 0 š DVIƒ 1.0 y w ƒ w. y» DVI DVR w ƒ w (1) ùký. w y N DVI (2) ùký š, p w DVR y DVIƒ 1.0 y N (3) txw (Sameshima and Iwakiri, 1987; Yun et al., 2011).

3 Seok Kyu Yun et al.: Developmental Rate Equations for Predicting Blooming Date DVI i ( y» )=DVR i (1) DVI N ( N z )=N DVR (2) DVR T (p w )=1 N 1 (3) š y (N) y (N ) w 1 (4) txw. DVR» (T) w x w (5) txw, w (6) w ùk ý., A, B, C, D. N 1 ( y )=A+B T (4) DVR T (» T w )=A+B T (5) DVR T (» T w )=C e (D T) (6) 2.4. y w y DVR w DVR w w y w w. ƒ DVR y (N ) 1 z w DVR w. s DVR s 30 dw w w. y»ƒ ù sww 15 y s³» z w w DVR w. DVR w x w w tx ƒ w. wr, { y y w» (Kim et al., 2009) ƒ wš 1 30 z l y DVR w s³» 5 o C ú sww (Moncur et al., 1989; NAAS, 1990). w 30 dw w y» s³» š 20 o C w 20 o C DVR w š w š 20 o C w w w DVR w w y» d w y» w DVR w w w DVI ƒ wš y» d w. w x s w w DVR w 30 dw s³» w y» d wš y» d d w d w w. DVR w w DVI vp (MS Office 2007, Microsoft, USA) w, y» d w w z m vp (SPSS 12.0, SPSS, USA) w. III. š 3.1. w y» DVR 9.7, 15.2, 18.9 C dw y o ƒƒ 45, 31, 26 DVR ƒƒ 0.022, 0.032, (Table 1). w y DVR w (x) w DVR x w y=0.0018x (r =0.99*) w 2 y=0.0125e x (r 2 =0.99*) w (Fig. 1). w» y» d DVR w y=0.0054e x w (NAAS, 1990), w t y» d DVR w š»»ƒ û r. w Table 1. Number of days needed for blooming and DVR of Yumyeong peach tree at three different air temperatures 20% Blooming 50% Blooming 80% Blooming Temperature ( o C) No. of days DVR No. of days DVR No. of days DVR

4 192 Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 4 Table 2. Blooming date, daily air temperature, and number of days over 5 o C for blooming of Yumyeong peach trees in Suwon, Korea from 1979 to 2008 Item Minimum Mean Maximum Blooming date (month/day) April 13 April 22 May 4 Daily air temperature ( o C) No. of days z z Days were counted from February 21 when the daily mean air temperature was over 5 o C. Fig. 1. Linear (A) and exponential (B) DVR equations for blooming measured in a controlled air temperature test. r Sugiura and Honjo(1997)ƒ w y» d DVR w y=0.0124e x w jš»»ƒ. y»ƒ jš»»ƒ ùkù, y» y» 2~5 (NIHHS, 2009) s y» DVR w p w 1979 l 2008 ¾ 30 w w t y» 4 13 l 5 4 s³ y» 4 22 (Table 2). s³» 5 o C ú w w y 40.0, s³» 9.48 o C, DVR w y» s³» 15 w y DVR wš w (x) w DVR x w y=0.0039x (r 2 =0.72*) Fig. 2. Linear (A) and exponential (B) DVR equations for blooming estimated from field data collected in Suwon, Korea from 1979 to w y=0.0062e x (r 2 =0.73*) w (Fig. 2). w w» (NAAS, 1990) w y» d DVR w y=0.0054e x»»ƒ w DVR w w y d t y» d DVR w s³» w DVI wš DVIƒ 1.0 w y d w. p l Julian

5 Seok Kyu Yun et al.: Developmental Rate Equations for Predicting Blooming Date Fig. 3. Daily mean air temperature (A) and DVIs (B) for 1996, 1998, and 30 years from 1979 to 2008 calculated with a DVR equation (y=0.0062e x ) and daily temperature data. Fig. 4. Fitness of the predicted data calculated with exponential DVR equations. A, by y=0.0125e x ; B, by y= e x. days ùkü 1979 l 2008 ¾ 30 w y s³ 113 Julian days. y 1998 y 104 Julian days š DVI ƒw. y 1996 y 120 Julian days š DVI ƒw p 70~80 Julian days DVI û w (Fig. 3) DVR w s³» w y» d w x w DVR w y= e x w s³» w w y» d d w s³ (root mean squared error, RMSE) 2.31 (Fig. 4A). s w DVR w y=0.0062e x s³» w w y» d d RMSE 1.83 ùkû (Fig. Fig. 5. Relationship between the observed and the predicted days for full blooming in Yumyeong peach trees calculated with a DVR equation (y=0.0062e x ). Vertical bars represent residual between the observed and the predicted days by year. 4B). DVR w w w y» d d ƒ 2 ü s w w. w mw w x DVR w s w DVR w y» d ww

6 194 Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 4. s w DVR w w 30» dw 1979, 1983, 1995, 2005 w d d 2 ü w (Fig. 5). y» DVR» w x w w ƒw w, w x s w ƒƒ DVR w y» d w w ƒ d œw. DVR w t y wš, y» d ƒ w ùkü. wr, t y» d DVR w ƒ w, w» w d w w w ù DVI w v w. y» d w w s w (DVR) wš, y» d w mw. w y ƒ w wš, s 1979 l 2008 ¾ dw w w. s 5 o C» w. y w w DVR w DVR x w w. w x w y» d DVR x w ƒƒ y =0.0018x y=0.0125e x. s w y» d DVR x w ƒƒ y=0.0039x y=0.0062e x. w t y» d DVR w s³» w y» dw, w s³ (RMSE)ƒ w x 2.31, s w w t y» d DVR w y wš, y» d w w. REFERENCES Aoki, A., T. Kaneko, and K. Yamazaki, 1985: Forecasting the flowering date of Japanese pear trees. Bulletin of the Tochigi Agricultural Experiment Station 31, Aono, Y., 1993: Climatological studies on blooming of cherry tree (Prunus yedoensis) by means of DTS method. Bulletin of University of Osaka Prefecture. Series B. Agriculture and Life Science 45, Aono, Y., and C. Moriya, 2003: A generalized model to estimate flowering for cherry tree (Prunus yedoensis) considering both processes of endodormancy completion and development. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology 59, Aono, Y., and Y. Omoto, 1990: A simplified method for estimation of blooming date for the cherry by means of DTS. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology 46, Behdani, M. A., A. Koocheki, M. Nassiri, and P. Rezvani, 2008: Models to predict flowering time in the main saffron production regions of Khorasan province. Journal of Applied Sciences 8, De Wit, C. T., R. Brouwer, and F. W. T. Penning de Vries, 1970: The simulation of photosynthetic systems. Proceedings of the IBP/PP Technical Meeting, PUDOC, Wageningen, Honjo, H., 2007: Effects of global warming on dormancy and flowering behavior of temperate fruit crops in Japan. Horticultural Research 6, 1-5. Honjo, H., R. Fukui, T. Sugiura, and Y. Aono, 2006: The DTS accumulation model for predicting the flowering date of Japanese pear tree in Japan. Acta Horticulturae 707, Horie, T., and H. Nakagawa, 1990: Modeling and prediction of developmental process in rice. Japanese Journal of Crop Science 59, Kawakami, H., A. Yamao, K. Morioka, H. Ikeda, and Y. Hada, 2009: Artificial control of blooming on Prunus yedoensis Matsum. ( Somei-yoshino, Rosaceae) using the number of days transformed to standard temperature. Naturalistae 13, 1-7. Kim, J. H., S. O. Kim, U. Chung, J. I. Yun, K. H. Hwang, J. B. Kim, and I. K. Yoon, 2009: Geospatial assessment of frost and freeze risk in Changhowon Hwangdo peach (Prunus persica) trees as affected by the projected winter warming in South Korea: II. Freezing risk index based on dormancy depth as a proxy for physiological tolerance to freezing temperature. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 11(4), (in Korean with English abstract) Kume, N., and K. Takezawa, 1994: Prediction of time of bud opening in the first crop of tea plants by nonparametric

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