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1 러시아외교론 5 강 러시아와중국안보관계 1. 러 - 중군사협력의배경 - 양국은대서방견제, 미국주도국제질서반대, 다극주의창출 - 양국은아시아지역의패권을장악한미일동맹을견제하기위한움직임을본격화 - 미국과 NATO 에맞서기위해러 - 중 - 인 3 각동맹구상 - 양국은국가경제발전에매진하기위해국제환경, 특히긴국경을맞대고있는양국국경지역의평화와안정필요 - 양국의안보협력의우선순위대상지역인중앙아시아의친서방화저지 2. 신밀월관계에서러 - 중군사훈련 1) 배경 - 이훈련은러중상호신뢰의강화, 방위및안전보장분야에서의협력증진과국제테러에대한공동대응및동북아에서양국의군사협력과군사적존재감 - 양국은이훈련을통해대만문제에미국의개입차단, 중앙아시아에서미군주둔에대한양국의대응및중앙아시아의잠재적불안대비 - 러중합동훈련은동북아일대강화되는미일군사협력체제대응 - 무기교역. 이훈련기간동안동원된러시아제첨단무기의성능을중국에보여줌으로써베이징이무기구매 2) 의미 - 이번러중합동훈련은세계군사전략의중심축이동을의미하며, 세계군사전략의중심축이아-태및중앙아시아지역으로옮겨졌음을보여주는증거이며, 한편으로군사분야에서양국의전략적동반자관계의발전에있어새로운단계를나타냄 3. 러 - 중국경문제해결 년 10 월 14 일양국은중요한정치적조치를취함. 41 년을끌어온영토분쟁을 - 1 -

2 성공적으로마무리하게됨. 양국은미해결된국경문제의매듭짓기위해양국간분할지배하기로한아르군강의볼쇼이섬과아무르강의볼쇼이우수리스크섬에대한추가합의가이뤄짐. 2005년 6월 2일양국은추가비준서를교환함으로써양국간걸림돌이되어왔던국경문제가해결됨. 1) 국경문제해결의의미 - 양국국경문제의최종적인해결은양국의상호존중, 평등, 상호이해그리고신뢰에바탕을둔전략적동반자관계를위해큰중요성을지니고있을뿐만아니라푸틴과후진타오가정확하게언급한것처럼, 세계모든국가들을위한국경분쟁해결의성공적인사례이기도하다. 4. 상하이협력기구를통한양국협력 - 러시아와중국은이슬람극단주의와분리주의의위협에맞서기위해 1996년옛소련에속했던카자흐스탄, 키르기스스탄, 타지키스탄, 우즈베키스탄중앙아시아 4개국들과함께새로운형태의지역기구인 ' 상하이협력기구 ' 를만들어군사분야에서신뢰를공고히하고있음. 몽골, 인도, 파키스탄, 이란은참관국자격으로합류. 1) 상하이협력기구 평화사명 중국러시아를포함한협력기구회원국모두참가한훈련 ( 장소 : 첼랴빈스크8월 9일-17일 ) - 이번훈련은중앙아시아의테러분자와민족분열주의자, 종교극단주의자등 3개세력을겨냥한평화훈련 - 그러나이번훈련은미국을겨냥한것. 중국은일본호주인도를연결해중국을포위하려는미국의전략에강한불만. 러시아는유럽에서북대서양조약기구의동진에강한압박을받고있음. - 안드레이골로보추크러시아국방위원은 " 러시아는중앙아시아에서미국과나토의영향력과균형을맞추고세계에서미국이멋대로독주하는것을차단하길원한다 " 고말함. 5. 러 - 중 - 인 3 국정상회담정례화 - 3국은미국의영향력에도전하는대국들이다. 가장큰관심은 2006년 7월 17일첫 3국정상회담이향후지속적인협의체나연합을구성할가능성이다. - 중국인민대학의진찬룽교수는 " 러시아는서쪽으로프랑스, 독일과손을잡았지만동쪽으로는그에상응하는협력체를구성하지못하고있다 " 며 " 미국을견제하기위한 - 2 -

3 러시아의동아시아협력체구성노력이이번 3 국정상회담으로나타났다 " 고분석. 1) 동아시아협력체를위한 3 국협력 문제는인도의태도이다. 인도언론들은 3국연합에비판적인논조를보임. 인민일보자매인환구시보는 " 현재인도대외전략의핵심축은미국 " 이라며 " 이에따라인도는미국을의식해러시아가주도하는 3국협력체구성에소극적인태도를보인다 " 고분석. 따라서인도는표면적으로중국 / 러시아와협력하면서도실제로는일정한거리를두고있다는지적이다.( 중앙일보, 2006년 7월 19일 ) 6. 러 - 중무기교역 - 러시아의대외무기수출가운데중국과인도가주요무기거래파트너이다. 이들두국가가러시아무기수출의 80% 를차지. 해를거듭할수록러시아의대외무기수출에서중국이차지하는비중이크게줄어들고있다. 예를들면, 2005년 61억달러대외무기수출에서중국의비중은 64.3% 이었지만, 2006년 65억달러가운데 38.3%, 2007년 70억달러가운데 21%, 2008년 80억달러가운데 18% 로급격하게줄어들었다. 이처럼 2006년부터중국에대한러시아의무기수출이급격히감소하게되었다. 향후러시아의대중무기판매는 10%-15% 정도로감소할가능성이있다. - 중국은러시아의첨단무기체계를적극도입하여군사력강화를달성하려고함. 중국측은첨단무기도입, 핵관련기술을포함란첨단군사기술의도입면에서도러시아로부터실리적기대를할수있음. 중국의해공군력약점을보완하는데러시아군병기구입 - 중국이과거재래식무기구입에의존하기보다이제첨단장비를원하고있기때문이다. 따라서양국은기술분야에중점을두고협력하는경향을보이고있음 7. 러 - 중군사협력의과제 1) 중국위협론 - 최근중국의경제적부상과더부러급격한방위예산증액과군현대화정책을적극추진하고있는것에대해서방세계에서는중국의군사대국화에대한우려들이나오고있음. - 중국위협론의배경에는중국이고도성장하는경제력을밑바탕으로지속적으로군비확충함으로써군사대국화의길을걷고있는것으로판단논리. 러시아국경선에 150만명의병력을가진중국이향후 10년후에는극동지역에서러시아의가장커다란문제가야기가능성. 2) 중국의군사대국화에두려움 - 3 -

4 - 중장기적으로양국의이해충돌가능성대비중국에무기를판매해야하는지논란. 만약러시아가중국에무기공급을중단하거나지연할경우중국의군현대화에차질. 그러나푸탄대학국제문제전문가딩리쉔교수는 " 러시아가한동안은앞서가겠지만중국이결국따라잡을것 " 이라며 " 중국은누구에게도무시무시한기술적경쟁자가될것 " 이라고말했다.( 중앙일보, 2008년 3월 3일 ) 3) 유럽연합의대중무기금수해제가능성 - 중국은군사현대화를도모하기위해유럽으로부터첨단군사장비구입뿐만아니라기술이전까지도원하고있음. 만약유럽연합이무기금수조치를해제한다면, 러시아의대외무기판매에있어중국이나인도로부터주문이감소할것이다. 왜냐하면러시아군수산업체는무기판매후서비스질제공하는것과전자부분인최첨단분야로혁신하는것에능력이부족. 서구에서좀더정교한무기디자인과경쟁하는데있어러시아의무기생산자들에게는불리한입장. 4) 러 - 중무기교역의위기 - 중국이큰돈들여구입한러시아제무기의조악한품질때문. 구축함미사일발사기능문제. - 무기구입연기. 2 억달러상륙정도입취소. 25 억달러수호이 대도입협상지연. - 중국군러시아최신무기제조기술도입을위한의도적시위. - 중국이전투기젠 -10 을파키스탄수출러시아제동. 엔진기술제공한러시아반대. 8. 전략적군사안보협력에대한시각 - 미국에대한공통의견해에도불구하고, 러시아와중국이완전한동맹관계를맺게될가능성은낮다. - 러시아의전략가들은중국을잠재적인군사동맹국으로고려하고있지않으며, 양국의군사기술협력도상업적인성격을띰. - 그러나안보의비전통적분야 ( 테러, 마약, 분리주의등 ) 에유사한입장을가지고있어양국의협력모티브가확대발전될수있다. 9. 러 - 중군사협력발전전망 - 러중군사협력은중국의첨단무기및군사기술도입필요성과러시아의국가재정확보 - 4 -

5 필요성이서로상승작용을일으키며현재까지지속적으로확대함. - 양국은단순무기교역이상의다각적인군사협력관계를추구. 러중은 41년만에양국국경문제해결, 대규모합동군사훈련실시등본격적인군사협력모색 - 중국의군대현대화차원에서러시아의최신무기를도입하려고함. 일부군사전문가들은러시아의최신무기로무장한중국군이아-태지역의안보질서에실질적으로불안정요인이될수있다고함. 따라서러시아도이지역세력균형의유지와지역안보를위태롭게하지않는범위에서러중군사기술협력을해나갈것으로예상. - 양국은서로존중을보여줄수있는것을하고있지만, 한편으로양국은서로의심을가지고있다. 또한각자다른파트너들도있다는것을알고있다. 즉미국과유럽연합등선진국가들과관계를개선할필요가있음을잘인식하고있음. Military Cooperation Between China and Russia Russia exports weapons to about 80 countries. Although China and India remain key buyers of Russian-made weaponry, Moscow has been actively expanding its presence on arms markets in Latin America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. 1. Russia exports weapons - The most popular types of weaponry bought from Russia are Sukhoi and MiG fighters, helicopters, battle tanks, armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. - Russia also maintains traditionally strong positions in sales of small arms, and anti-tank and air-defense missile systems. 2. Russia's sales of arms to China - Russia's sales of arms and equipment to China made up 40 percent of its total military exports, earning as much as $2.5 billion a year. China now has more than 280 Russian Sukhoi Su-27 and Su-30 Flanker fighters, 12 missile-armed submarines and four destroyers equipped with supersonic anti-ship missiles. 3. Russian-Chinese military-technical cooperation - 5 -

6 - Russian-Chinese military-technical cooperation totals $16 billion since 2001, but the Chinese share of Russian arms exports is decreasing. - "In the past 15 years, China has been one of our major customers, buying up to $2.7 billion-worth of Russian-made weaponry. The value of Russian-Chinese military-technical cooperation since 2001 totals $16 billion," Rosoboronexport's general director Anatoly Isaikin said. - According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China received 94 percent of its major conventional weapons from Russia in the five years to They included combat aircraft, helicopters, warships, submarines, air defense systems and missiles. - Russia has sold China Su-27 and Su-30 fighters, Kilo class diesel submarines, and air-defense systems, among other types of weapons and equipment. - However, the official said the Chinese share of Russian arms exports decreased to 18% last year, and could drop to 10-15% in the future for a number of reasons, including Russia's expansion into other arms markets. - He said Russia was unfazed by the prospect, because the sales volumes remained relatively high. - "After all, sales volumes [to China] are still high, averaging $1 billion a year," Isaikin said, adding that Russia's first arms deal of this year was signed with China for the delivery of more than 100 jet engines for the Chinese J-10 fighter. - Military analysts believe, however, that Russian-Chinese military cooperation has been overshadowed by Russia's concerns that China may use Russian technology to produce their own copycat versions of military equipment. - For instance, Russia has refused to sell its Su-33 carrier-based( 함재 ) fighters to China over fears that Beijing could produce cheaper export versions of the aircraft. - Russian Defense Ministry sources earlier confirmed that the refusal was due to findings that China had produced its own copycat version of the Su-27SK fighter jet in violation of intellectual property agreements. - Solovtsov said both countries were making efforts to resolve existing problems. - "We signed an agreement in December last year on the protection of intellectual - 6 -

7 property in the sphere of military-technical cooperation," the general said, adding that mechanisms to implement the provisions of the document would be developed in the near future. - He also said that China would continue to buy military transport aircraft and aircraft engines from Russia, and was also interested in air-defense systems and naval equipment.(the Moscow Times, 13 April 2009) 4. Problems over military sales - China is intent on developing its domestic arms industry to become as self-sufficient as possible. It turned to Russia because of U.S. and European restrictions of exports of arms and related technologies. Russian and Western analysts say that China has stopped licensed production of Sukhoi fighters because it has been able to copy them and make local versions. - This has reinforced Russian reluctance to provide more advanced military equipment that China wants, including T-90 tanks, artillery and multi-role helicopters. Moscow's lack of trust in future Chinese intentions is in marked contrast with the depth of Russian military ties with India

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