Business Opportunity with TPS 전홍범 hbjeon@kt.co.kr 연구개발본부 목차 Telecom의위기 New Opportunities Managed Service 결언
Telecom 의위기 Telecom Collapse Market Trends 500,000 jobs lost in last two years of the top 5 money losing firms in 00 were in telecom, a total of $07B of losses $470B of debt 6 service provider bankruptcies Fraud, indictments, law suits Dave Passmore, NGN00 Declining prices for voice Declining number of phone lines Declining prices/bit/sec Effects of past over-investment High cost of entering new business Shift from phone and fax to email Shift from wired to wireless Shift from TDM to IP 전세계통신망사업자매출 / 투자비 60 40 0 Percent 0-0 Revenue Capex -40-60 000 00 00 00 004 005 006 Year (Revenue & Capex : RHK 보고서, 00..)
인터넷매출액변화추이 북미 / 유럽의인터넷매출액은감소세로반전 ( 인터넷매출액 : IP 패킷전달능력을이용하는사업군의매출총액 ).9.8 $ billions.7.6.5 00 : $5. billion 00 : $4.7 billion (-4 %).4. Q0 Q0 Q0 4Q0 Q0 Q0 Q0 4Q0 Quarter/Year (Internet Revenues : STARtrax00 conference) Revenue-per-Bit Revenue-per-bit 의감소추세 ( 북미 ) Traffic : 07% Traffic : 85% Revenue : 7% Revenue/bit : -45% Revenue/bit : -5% Revenue : -% (00) (00) ( 연간증감율 : STARtrax00 conference)
Cash Cow Carrier 사업자의성장엔진의변화 LM 초고속인터넷 4 대엔진 IP Broadband 유무선통합 E-portal? 시내전화 997 998 999 000 00 00 00 005 New Opportunities
Carrier 사업자의고민 C s Characterlessness 사업자간비차별성서비스제공시장선점을위한무리수강요 Capacity 끝없는용량확대과도한투자를유도 Competition 각사업분야별다수의경쟁자가격경쟁의요인 Revenue vs. Expense 여전히유효한매출 vs. 비용 Paradigm Revenue increased area Expense decreased area Diverse Services Time to Market High Price Network Efficiency Technology Convergence Capacity Optimization (Customer Side) (Provider Side)
Carrier 사업자의선택 Cs 극복을위한방안 ( 인수 / 합병, 제휴, de-regulation 과같은 non-technical relative issue 는고려않음 ) Characterlessness 사업자간비차별성서비스제공시장선점을위한무리수강요 Differentiated Differentiated services services Capacity 끝없는용량확대 과도한투자를유도 Network Network Engineering Engineering Low Low Price Price Competition 각사업분야별다수의경쟁자가격경쟁의요인 개선방향 매출 / 비용 Paradigm 과 Cs 방안비교 Revenue increased area Expense decreased area Differentiated Differentiated services services Low Low Price Price Diverse Services Time to Market High Price Network Efficiency Technology Network Network Convergence Engineering Engineering Capacity Optimization (Customer Side) (Provider Side)
서비스차별화 Something More? PSTN ADSL Ethernet Leased Line ( 전용회선, VPN) VDSL Carrier C Carrier B Carrier A Technique s own price & bandwidth Horizontal Model Horizontal Differentiated Service 기존서비스의 Packaging Total revenue의감소 Something More? 인터넷접속 인터넷접속 + VoIP Carrier C Carrier B 인터넷접속 + 전화 +? Carrier A
Vertical Model Vertical Differentiated Service 기존 Infra 를활용하는부가서비스와의 Synergy (User) (Network) (Server) 7 7 부가서비스 6 5 Something more! 6 5 4 4 네트워크서비스 Home-networking, Broadband, etc. 전용회선, VPN, 유무선통합, etc. IDC, Contents, etc. Managed Service
Telecom Market 예측 Managed Service Billion USD 0 Application Managed 서비스 5 0 5 Network Managed 서비스 Co-location 서비스 0 접속서비스 000 00 00 00 004 ( 출처 : 포레스터리서치, 00) Managed Service 전망 Managed Service 에대한시장예측 Million USD 500,000 450,000 400,000 50,000 00,000 50,000 00,000 50,000 00,000 50,000 0 00 00 00 004 비즈니스프로세스 / 거래관리 관리서비스 교육과훈련 개발및통합 컨설팅 S/W 관리와지원 H/W 관리와지원 year (E-business 서비스부문별시장전망 : Gartner 보고서참조 )
Managed Service 개요 (User) (network) (Server) 7 7 6 5 4 Application Managed Service - 서비스특성별관리 ( 품질, 대역폭, 우선순위등 ) 6 5 4 Network Managed Service 가입자가이용하는통신망에대한 monitoring, reporting, operation 및 management 서비스전달현실 Best Efforts 서비스 Bandwidth-intensive Applications (image transfer, Streaming media,etc.) Unsanctioned Applications (Net surfing, Napster, News,etc.) Mission-Critical Applications (VoIP, Oracle, SAP,etc.) Definite Capacity Best efforts 환경에서는 Mission-critical applications 가전혀보호를받을수없음
서비스별대역폭점유율 Before Management Other TN70 Internet Gaming 4% % 5% Citrix 5% Oracle 7% 투자비 : $07.8 M Web Browsing 8% Oracle 7% 투자비 : $5.6 M Other TN70 Internet Gaming 4% % 5% Citrix 5% Web Browsing 8% Real Audio 8% File Transfers 9% Napster % Email 0% Real Audio 8% File Transfers 9% Email Napster 0% % ( 출처 : IDC 500 survey) After Management 서비스별대역폭점유율 Oracle 7% Real Audio 8% File Transfers 9% 투자비 : $07.8 M Other TN70 Internet Gaming 4% % 5% Citrix 5% Napster % Web Browsing Email 0% 8% 0% Internet Gaming % Citrix % Oracle 투자비 : $07.8M + α Other TN70 4% % % Real Audio Web Browsing Email Napster File Transfers % 0% 8% 5%
Bandwidth Management Revenue Generating 서비스에대한 network engineering (QoS 적용 ) - Packet voice, 업무용 application, Multimedia conferencing와같은실시간품질민감형트래픽은더욱늘어날것이며, - 동시에압축기술의발전으로인해, 서비스품질의저하는 Revenue에직접적인영향을끼칠것으로예측됨 Bundling Triple Play Service Per Lindgren, Netinsight
Network Implementation QoS-Enabled IP Network 구축 일반인터넷트래픽은기존 best-effort network로 routing 방송, VoD, 전용선등의특수트래픽은 QoS enabled network로 routing for non time-critical service xdsl L/L ATM L/L Best Effort IP Network GMPLS ( IP/WDM ) Internet Ethernet QoS enabled IP Network IDC Mobile for time-critical service VPN IDC Home Network Access Network IP Network Services QoS-enabled Layer Model Telcordia
TPS based on Softswitch Network Mng Service Mng Accounting Directory Rating Server Server Server Web Network Provisioning Mng. Server Server IN Service TV MG Video MG Softswitch MGC Softswitch HG PSTN MG QoS Guaranteed IP Network Mobile MG 결론
New Paradigm with QoS Telecom Paradigm vs. QoS Revenue increased area Diverse Services 새로운부가서비스의창출 Time to Market 고품질서비스욕구수용 High Price Expense decreased area QoS-based infrastructure Network Efficiency Technology Convergence Capacity Optimization CAPEX & OPEX saving (Customer Side) (Provider Side) Revenue with QoS Carrier revenue vs. QoS With With QoS QoS 시내전화 LM 초고속인터넷 4 대엔진 IP Broadband 유무선통합 E-portal Without Without QoS QoS 997 998 999 000 00 00 00 005