2011-73 대구시주택시장동향과수급전망
요약 2008 (2008 2017 ),.. 2008....,.. 2010. 2008.. i
... 2012,.,.,. 2011 2 3. ii
.,.. 60 m2 60~85 m2 85 m2 1997 37,878 14,441 38.1 15,360 40.6 8,077 21.3 1998 3,132 1,133 36.2 830 26.5 1,169 37.3 1999 9,353 3,789 40.5 4,186 44.8 1,378 14.7 2000 21,033 3,518 16.7 10,033 47.7 7,482 35.6 2001 34,919 8,454 24.2 19,371 55.5 7,094 20.3 2002 27,464 3,463 12.6 17,115 62.3 6,886 25.1 2003 34,405 8,584 24.9 16,004 46.6 9,817 28.5 2004 25,370 2,845 11.2 14,371 56.7 8,154 32.1 2005 41,600 6,950 16.7 19,068 45.8 15,582 37.5 2006 27,625 6,258 22.7 7,891 28.6 13,476 48.7 2007 18,174 1,968 10.8 8,024 44.2 8,182 45.0 2008 22,880 7,919 34.6 8,396 36.7 6,565 28.7 2009 6,645 1,347 20.3 3,689 55.5 1,609 24.2 2010 4,724 1,253 26.5 2,094 44.4 1,377 29.1 10(2011 2020 ) 15. 2017. 107 46 iii
.,. 2017. (60 m2 ) 42% (85m2 ) 40%. (85m2 ) 18%. 2017 3% 2017 7%., 10%. 60m2 23m2 23~30m2 30~46m2 46~60m2 2011~2020 153,975-3,236-4,007 26,664 45,006 15,398-324 -401 2,666 4,501 - -2.1-2.6 17.3 29.2 60~85m2 85m2 60~72 72~85m2 85~130m2 130~163m2 163~228m2 228m2 2011~2020 5,549 56,564 16,646 7,861 4,624-1,696 555 5,656 1,665 786 462-170 3.6 36.7 10.8 5.1 3.0-1.1 2020 15. 9.,, iv
,. ( m2 ) () ( ) 64 14,365,615 90,412 279,396 2 199,502 2,330 7,513 3 5,542,037 17,865 54,236 4 4,178,471 19,658 58,632 7 2,095,433 19,312 62,669 1 1,085,498 2,905(13,276) 5,652 (, ) 47 1,264,674 19,047 60,950(*) - - 9,295 29,744(*) 2006 5 51(2.1km2 ) 17. ( ) 5:5 5 3. 5 10 6 15.,. v
,.,.........,.,... vi
...,...,.,......... vii
.... viii
차례
표차례
그림차례
1 제 1 장서론 2008 (2008 2017 ),.. 2008.. 2008.. 2 3..... 2010. 2008.,
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망.,.......,,.. 2020, 2020., 2020.
1.. (, ) (,, ). (, ).. 2020. 2020...
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 1.,, 114,
1, ( ).,. 2, 3 1 1 1), 1/2 1/2,,.,.,,.,.,., 2012.,..,. 2011~2020.,.
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 2011~2020 10., 5 80~90 ( 1, 2, 3 ).. 2005. 1.
주택시장의동향
2 제 2 장주택시장의동향 887. 692. 41%. 30%., 58% 52%. 886,842 (691,702) 361,447 (166,307) 67,336 74,166 269,306 24,805 517,143 464,960 5,084 47,099 8,252 100% 40.8% 7.6% - 30.4% 2.8% 58.3% 52.4% 0.6% 5.3% 0.9% 2008..
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 2001 (648,659) (197,041) 30.4 431,719 66.5 322,295 8,095 101,329 19,899 3.1 2002 (669,596) (198,000) 29.6 450,547 67.3 332,381 8,274 109,892 21,049 3.1 2003 (700,512) (198,920) 28,4 480,295 68.6 358,933 8,523 112,839 21,297 3.0 2004 (710,360) (198,212) 27.9 490,818 69.1 368,521 8,732 113,565 21,330 3.0 2005 (720,493) (196,725) 27.3 502,488 69.8 379,528 8,757 114,203 21,280 2.9 2006 (621,842) (166,733) 26.8 440,688 70.9 385,395 10,416 44,877 14,421 2.3 2007 (639,377) (166,624) 26.0 458,256 71.7 402,598 10,430 45,228 14,497 2.3 2008 853,893 (668,116) 361,265 (175,488) 42.3 480,828 56.3 427,104 7,731 45,993 11,800 1.4 2009 871,127 (682,725) 363,345 (174,943) 41.7 496,005 56.9 442,291 7,731 45,983 11,777 1.4 2010 886,842 (691,702) 361,447 (166,307) 40.8 517,143 58.3 464,960 5,084 47,099 8,252 0.9 2010 662. 160(24.2%), 444(67.0%)..
2 60m2 33.2% 85m2 33.9%, 85m2 32.9%., 28.3%, 27.0%. (24.2%). 661,936 160,011 443,751 4,885 45,676 7,613 20 m2 884 497 44 5 13 325 20 m2 ~40 m2 42,032 5,931 33,300 104 1,565 1,132 40 m2 ~60 m2 176,959 12,927 153,807 884 8,428 913 60 m2 ~85 m2 224,207 24,022 178,770 1,831 18,147 1,437 85 m2 ~100 m2 31,079 17,705 3,230 755 8,160 1,229 100 m2 ~130 m2 73,035 23,082 39,017 933 8,892 1,111 130 m2 ~165 m2 68,253 36,396 30,268 234 385 970 165 m2 ~230 m2 27,707 22,359 4,859 85 73 331 230 m2 17,780 17,092 456 54 13 165 2010 102%. 103%. 2009 2010 2%
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망., 1%. 15 1. () 2,446,418 868,327( ) 886,842 102.1% 669,641( ) 691,702 103.3% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (648,659) (669,596) (700,512) (710,360) (720,493) (621,842) (639,377) 853,893 (668,116) 871,127 (682,725) 886,842 (691,702) 802,113 822,034 824,476 826,113 663,980 665,486 829,346 (666,721) 834,603 (669,393) 868,327 (669,641) (82.6) (83.4) (85.30) (86.16) (87.21) (93.65) (96.08) 103.0 (100.2) 104.4 (102.0) 102.1 (103.3)
2, 2011 6 (100.0) 2011 6., 1991. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1986 56.5 56.5 56.8 56.8 56.8 56.8 56.4 56.4 56.9 57.2 57.1 57.1 1987 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.1 57.1 57.1 57.6 58.4 63.6 65.9 67.9 68.9 1988 72.3 73.7 75.8 78.3 79.4 79.9 79.9 80.0 79.9 79.2 78.5 77.9 1989 77.9 80.1 81.5 86.6 86.6 86.6 86.6 83.7 83.7 84.3 84.8 85.6 1990 85.6 85.8 86.0 87.4 88.0 88.4 88.5 89.1 94.1 96.6 99.9 101.1 1991 100.6 101.1 101.8 103.5 103.7 102.5 100.7 99.5 98.6 97.9 96.8 96.4 1992 95.9 95.3 95.4 95.1 94.6 94.4 94.4 94.1 94.2 93.9 93.1 92.7 1993 92.4 92.4 91.9 91.8 91.5 91.2 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.2 90.0 89.8 1994 89.7 89.8 89.8 89.8 89.6 89.5 89.6 89.6 89.6 89.7 89.5 89.5 1995 89.4 89.1 88.9 88.7 88.6 88.4 88.1 87.8 87.9 87.9 87.9 87.9 1996 87.9 87.9 87.7 87.7 87.6 87.5 87.3 87.2 87.2 87.2 87.2 87.2 1997 87.1 87.2 87.3 87.3 87.0 87.0 86.8 86.6 86.2 86.2 86.2 85.8 1998 84.8 82.4 77.9 76.8 75.6 74.8 74.2 74.3 73.9 73.2 72.9 72.4 1999 72.9 74.4 75.3 76.3 76.4 76.1 76.3 76.4 76.7 76.9 76.4 75.7 2000 75.8 76.0 76.0 75.7 75.5 75.0 74.9 75.1 75.1 75.2 74.9 74.4 2001 74.0 74.1 74.4 75.7 76.1 76.9 77.5 78.7 80.1 80.8 81.1 82.4 2002 83.9 85.8 87.9 88.7 89.0 89.4 89.4 89.5 90.2 90.6 90.7 90.5 2003 90.2 90.4 90.3 90.5 91.3 91.4 91.4 91.6 92.5 93.8 93.3 92.0 2004 91.6 91.6 91.8 91.8 91.7 91.5 91.4 91.0 91.0 90.9 90.7 90.6 2005 90.6 90.7 91.1 92.1 93.2 94.2 94.8 95.5 96.3 96.7 97.0 97.5 2006 97.9 98.2 98.8 99.1 99.3 99.3 99.1 98.9 98.9 98.9 99.0 99.0 2007 99.0 98.9 98.7 98.4 98.2 98.0 97.8 97.7 97.5 97.5 97.4 97.2 2008 97.1 97.0 97.0 97.0 96.9 96.7 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.2 95.8 95.0 2009 94.3 93.7 93.3 93.0 93.0 93.0 93.1 93.1 93.4 93.7 93.8 94.0 2010 94.1 94.2 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.4 94.3 94.4 94.5 94.7 95.0 95.3 2011 95.6 96.4 97.3 98.2 99.2 100.0 100.7 101.6 102.7 103.5 - -
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 2011 11. 100. 1) 40.7 11.8 46.2 96.3 4.5 54.8 33.8 93.0 10.9 2.5 7.0 27.6 1.9 18.9 4.9 18.6 2) 149.4 139.4 168.7 177.6 149.2 186.1 88.4 179.7 24.8 26.1 21.8 22.4 28.4 15.0 9.5 24.2 3) 56.4 45.0 61.0 81.0 46.0 68.7 34.1 78.9
2. 2009 6 2011 2%.. 2011... 2011 1~9 99m2.. 11...
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 2011 7, 3.3m2 566, 390. 3.3m2 3.3 m2 697, 475 200. 3.3m2 465 310 150. 68.94% 2003. 72.19% 62.56%. 2, 3.
2 2011, 63.9% 56%.. 2005 51.5% 2010 52.85%.. 1.. 2005 2010 54.15% 45.85% 50.31% 49.69% 48.50% 51.50% 47.15% 52.85% 61.80% 38.20% 57.19% 42.81% 58.03% 41.97% 54.32% 45.68% 53.82% 46.18% 46.72% 53.28% 48.86% 51.14% 39.19% 60.81% 50.77% 49.23% 42.18% 57.82% 46.38% 53.62% 39.72% 60.28%. 2010 2011.. 5, 6.. 135
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망m2 95% 60~85m2 (14,016) 40~60m2 (9,427). 85~135m2 5,831. (10,576) (6,251),,,.. 4 2 4.,,,.
2. 2010 4,724 1998 IMF. 2000 2 3 2005 41.. 2005 2009 2010.
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 1990 2000 90%.. 2009 2010.. 2009 13% 2010 30%..,.,
2. 1990, 2000. / / 1995 36,998 4,210 11.4 27,508 74.3 5,280 14.3 1996 29,490 3,021 10.2 23,256 78.9 3,213 10.9 1997 37,878 2,042 5.4 33,957 89.6 1,879 5.0 1998 3,132 507 16.2 1,072 34.2 1,553 49.6 1999 9,353 1,337 14.3 7,353 78.6 663 7.1 2000 21,033 1,959 9.3 17,358 82.5 1,716 8.2 2001 34,919 3,328 9.5 25,049 71.8 6,542 18.7 2002 27,464 2,741 10.0 15,937 58.0 8,786 32.0 2003 34,405 2,255 6.6 29,455 85.6 2,695 7.8 2004 25,370 1,129 4.5 23,622 93.1 619 2.4 2005 41,600 981 2.4 39,615 95.2 1,004 2.4 2006 27,625 1,237 4.5 25,846 93.5 542 2.0 2007 18,174 1,184 6.5 16,523 90.9 467 2.6 2008 22,880 1,476 6.5 21,022 91.8 382 1.7 2009 6,645 865 13.0 5,709 85.9 71 1.1 2010 4,724 1,419 30.0 3,138 66.5 167 3.5 85m2 2006 2007. 60m2 2008. 60 85m2.
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 60 m2 60~85 m2 85 m2 1997 37,878 14,441 38.1 15,360 40.6 8,077 21.3 1998 3,132 1,133 36.2 830 26.5 1,169 37.3 1999 9,353 3,789 40.5 4,186 44.8 1,378 14.7 2000 21,033 3,518 16.7 10,033 47.7 7,482 35.6 2001 34,919 8,454 24.2 19,371 55.5 7,094 20.3 2002 27,464 3,463 12.6 17,115 62.3 6,886 25.1 2003 34,405 8,584 24.9 16,004 46.6 9,817 28.5 2004 25,370 2,845 11.2 14,371 56.7 8,154 32.1 2005 41,600 6,950 16.7 19,068 45.8 15,582 37.5 2006 27,625 6,258 22.7 7,891 28.6 13,476 48.7 2007 18,174 1,968 10.8 8,024 44.2 8,182 45.0 2008 22,880 7,919 34.6 8,396 36.7 6,565 28.7 2009 6,645 1,347 20.3 3,689 55.5 1,609 24.2 2010 4,724 1,253 26.5 2,094 44.4 1,377 29.1 70 60 50 60 m2이하 60 m2 ~85 m2 85 m2초과 40 30 20 10 0 1997 년 1998 년 1999 년 2000 년 2001 년 2002 년 2003 년 2004 년 2005 년 2006 년 2007 년 2008 년 2009 년 2010 년. 2011 7,258 2002 10. 114 2011 7 5,930 82%. 1,987 1,819,
2 1,746... 2009 6,148 2010 7,365. 2011 1 942, 2 5,778 6,720. 2011 2 2008.. 2011 99~132 m2 72%
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 132m2 91%. 2000. 1,819, 1,588, 1,604. 2011. 2011 7,855 1990 21,656 2000 16,210 1/3 1/2. 2011 9,235 2000 15,784 60%. 2009.
2. 2010. 2011 6 2...... 2012..
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망.,.....
주택수요및공급의전망
3 제 3 장주택수요및공급의전망 1. 1) 2000, 1. 2007 2010.,,,,,. 2001 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2,539,587 2,544,811 2,525,836 2,513,219 2,512,670 2,512,604 2,509,187 2,532,077 90,097 84,104 80,693 79,255 79,776 79,496 78,226 78,545 336,999 340,382 345,096 339,072 337,460 332,409 332,787 338,899 282,847 267,106 252,881 245,587 239,868 230,761 227,006 226,394 193,064 186,037 180,571 181,158 179,321 176,151 172,701 172,066 416,227 448,539 466,768 470,856 466,661 465,483 457,382 456,629 457,704 449,475 438,612 441,549 448,695 453,265 457,670 463,368 604,371 609,106 600,852 595,049 598,035 601,678 604,938 614,553 158,278 160,062 160,363 160,693 162,854 173,361 178,477 181,623
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 < Ⅲ-2> 20, 10 10, 20. 0.31%, -0.44% -0.14%. 2000. 9~23 1%,.,,,. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2,539,738 2,525,836 2,513,219 2,512,670 2,512,604 2,509,187-5,073-13,902-12,617-549 -66-3,417 23,111 20,677 20,226 22,169 20,562 19,399 11,759 11,407 11,254 11,195 11,605 11,742 11,352 9,270 8,972 10,974 8,957 7,657-16,425-23,172-21,589-11,523-9,023-11,074-0.2-0.55-0.5-0.02 0-0.14 0.91 0.82 0.8 0.88 0.82 0.77 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.45 0.37 0.36 0.44 0.36 0.31-0.65-0.92-0.86-0.46-0.36-0.44
3 2) 2010,., 2010., 2011,,. 2000, -0.4%. 2011 3,000, 4~5 2) 14, 46. 1 2012, -0.4% +0.1% 4~5 0.5%. 2016. 2010 2,532 2011 2013 2015 2020 2,480.
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 2000 2,538,212-2,528,863 0.429 2001 2,539,587 0.054 2,539,347 0.415 2002 2,540,647 0.042 2,539,843 0.020 2003 2,544,811 0.164 2,544,667 0.190 2004 2,539,738-0.199 2,553,885 0.362 2005 2,525,836-0.547 2,550,516-0.132 2006 2,513,219-0.500 2,547,186-0.131 2007 2,512,670-0.022 2,543,704-0.137 2008 2,512,604-0.003 2,539,926-0.149 2009 2,509,187-0.136 2,535,779-0.163 2010 2,532,077 0.912 2,531,342-0.175 2011 2,527,342-0.187 2,526,610-0.187 2012 2,525,598-0.069 2,521,078-0.219 2013 2,526,937 0.053 2,514,847-0.247 2014 2,531,283 0.172 2,507,847-0.278 2015 2,528,499-0.110 2,500,081-0.310 2016 2,519,953-0.338 2,491,621-0.338 2017 2,510,856-0.361 2,482,627-0.361 2018 2,501,214-0.384 2,473,094-0.384 2019 2,491,034-0.407 2,463,029-0.407 2020 2,480,323-0.430 2,452,438-0.430
3 1) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2,322,838 2,449,420 2,480,578 2,464,547 2,446,418 621,648 703,464 762,194 817,620 873,934 153,001 112,565 86,282 74,765 72,925 43,675 34,850 29,310 29,151 30,380 359,707 353,862 33,472 334,298 319,754 96,942 103,175 104,555 112,469 116,891 406,439 345,674 283,027 244,276 211,593 109,844 101,294 89,534 84,276 80,132 276,995 230,257 192,276 180,260 168,574 75,249 69,385 63,363 67,222 69,434 321,629 371,459 400,510 460,206 453,228 85,081 105,148 119,067 148,579 157,183 351,713 440,961 448,996 426,110 445,365 91,643 123,352 136,947 137,850 151,958 359,556 477,620 586,183 593,877 605,752 94,716 133,439 175,185 190,507 211,181 93,798 117,022 148,552 150,755 169,227 24,498 32,821 44,233 47,566 56,775 < Ⅲ-4>. 1990 2010 5,,,,,,., 5~10%., < Ⅲ-5>.
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 639,924 729,426 796,836 856,487 925,084 1 64,180 85,821 113,240 155,961 205,053 2 85,051 109,727 137,470 173,726 215,297 3 126,111 154,087 174,435 191,191 211,225 4 196,688 246,131 265,580 252,462 223,159 5 111,385 95,040 81,471 65,834 55,936 6 37,764 27,825 18,613 13,417 11,309 7 18,745 10,794 6,028 3,896 3,106 1990 ~1995 1995 ~2000 2000 ~2005 2005 ~2010 17,900 13,482 11,930 13,719 1 4,328 5,484 8,544 9,818 2 4,935 5,548 7,251 8,314 3 5,595 4,069 3,351 4,007 4 9,889 3,890-2,624-5,861 5-3,269-2,714-3,127-1,980 6-1,988-1,843-1,039-422 7-1,592-953 -426-158 90 18 2000 12,. 1 2/3, 2, 4.
3 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 639,924 729,426 796,836 856,487 925,084 1 10.0% 11.8% 14.2% 18.2% 22.2% 2 13.3% 15.0% 17.3% 20.3% 23.3% 3 19.7% 21.1% 21.9% 22.3% 22.8% 4 30.7% 33.7% 33.3% 29.5% 24.1% 5 17.4% 13.0% 10.2% 7.7% 6.0% 6 5.9% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6% 1.2% 7 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 1990 1 10% 2005 1 18.2%, 2. 3, 4, 5.,. 2) 1980 4.50 1985 4.06, 1990 3.70, 1995 3.34, 2000 3.12, 2005 2.88,. 5-0.43, -0.36, -0.22 2000~2005-0.25. IMF 2000. ( 遞減 ),.
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1 8.4 10.0 11.8 14.2 18.2 22.2 2 12.9 13.3 15.0 17.3 20.3 23.3 3 17.1 19.7 21.1 21.9 22.3 22.8 4 26.3 30.7 33.7 33.3 29.5 24.1 5 19.2 17.4 13.0 10.2 7.7 6.0 6 10.6 5.9 3.8 2.3 1.6 1.2 7 5.6 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 3.911 3.625 3.390 3.184 2.948 2.737 - -0.286-0.235-0.206-0.236-0.211 - - 82 88 114 -. < Ⅲ-8 1985 ~2010 20, 5-0.29, -0.23, -0.21, -0.24, -0.21,., 2 1 3 3. 3) 2 4) ( 微少 )
3 2020 2.402. 1, 2020 2.528. 3 2020 2.347 1., 1 3, 2. 2010 2015 2020 1 21.2 24.1 26.6 2 22.9 24.4 25.5 3 22.8 22.7 22.4 4 26.1 23.1 20.6 5 5.5 4.5 3.8 6 1.2 1.0 0.9 7 0.4 0.3 0.2 2.768 2.635 2.528-0.18-0.13-0.11 2010 2015 2020 1 22.1 25.9 29.4 2 23.2 25.7 27.8 3 22.5 22.0 21.0 4 25.3 21.8 18.1 5 5.4 3.4 2.7 6 1.2 1.0 0.8 7 0.4 0.3 0.2 2.737 2.550 2.402-0.21-0.19-0.15
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 2010 2015 2020 1 22.7 27.0 31.1 2 23.1 25.7 27.7 3 22.5 22.0 21.0 4 25.0 20.9 17.1 5 5.2 3.2 2.2 6 1.2 1.0 0.8 7 0.4 0.3 0.2 2.719 2.515 2.347-0.23-0.20-0.17 2 2020 < Ⅲ-12>. 2010 4 2012 2, 2017 1.. < Ⅲ-13>. 2008~2020 8 ~15 10 11. < Ⅲ-14>, 4, 2017 3. < Ⅲ-15> 1 117%, 2 77%, 4.. 2005 2007 2010 2012 2015 2017 2020 2.949 2.864 2.738 2.663 2.551 2.492 2.402 1 18.21 19.77 22.08 23.60 25.89 27.28 29.41 2 20.28 21.45 23.18 24.19 25.71 26.56 27.79 3 22.32 22.40 22.52 22.32 22.01 21.60 21 4 29.48 27.78 25.30 23.89 21.76 20.29 18.1 5 7.69 6.77 5.39 4.59 3.39 3.11 2.7 6 1.57 1.41 1.17 1.09 0.98 0.92 0.8 7 0.45 0.42 0.36 0.32 0.26 0.24 0.2
3 2007 2008 2010 2012 2015 2017 2020 877,329 890,363 924,791 948,403 991,180 1,007,567 1,032,607 1 173,448 182,881 204,194 223,822 256,616 274,865 303,691 2 188,187 196,147 214,367 229,419 254,832 267,610 286,961 3 196,522 199,797 208,263 211,684 218,159 217,634 216,847 4 243,722 239,953 233,972 226,573 215,681 204,435 186,902 5 59,395 56,182 49,846 43,532 33,601 31,335 27,880 6 12,370 11,842 10,820 10,338 9,714 9,270 8,261 7 3,685 3,561 3,329 3,035 2,577 2,418 2,065 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 13,034 22,206 12,350 15,809 13,095 7,982 8,333 1 9,433 11,763 9,934 11,092 10,824 9,077 9,725 2 7,960 10,202 7,668 8,797 8,257 6,318 6,412 3 3,275 5,362 1,821 2,534 1,904-276 -504 4-3,769-1,693-3,509-3,087-4,095-5,678-5,764 5-3,213-2,865-3,177-3,154-3,468-1,152-1,107 6-528 -462-239 -225-165 -226-343 7-124 -101-148 -148-162 -81-86 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 13,034 22,206 12,350 15,809 13,095 7,982 8,333 1 72.37 52.96 80.44 70.16 82.66 113.72 116.70 2 61.07 45.94 62.09 55.65 63.05 79.15 76.95 3 25.13 24.15 14.74 16.03 14.54-3.46-6.05 4-28.92-7.62-28.41-19.53-31.27-71.14-69.17 5-24.65-12.90-25.72-19.95-26.48-14.43-13.28 6-4.05-2.08-1.94-1.42-1.26-2.83-4.12 7-0.95-0.45-1.20-0.94-1.24-1.01-1.03
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망,.,,. 2005 590 5) 811 6). 46m2 59 10% 193 24%. 2005 1 2 3 4 5 6-590,734 488,370 48,729 29,135 12,113 5,474 6,913 23m2 16.5 1,869 1,809 55 5 - - - 23~30m2 26.4 16,585 16,464 104 15 2 - - 30~46m2 39.7 40,241 38,812 1,233 169 20 5 2 46~63m2 56.2 159,550 155,643 3,123 647 96 19 22 63~96m2 82.6 212,138 199,123 9,630 2,549 606 150 80 96~129m2 115.7 55,952 38,026 11,790 4,713 1,060 247 116 129~162m2 148.8 51,390 28,518 12,063 7,901 2,302 423 183 162~228m2 198.3 33,506 8,282 9,083 9,826 4,662 1,176 477 228~327m2 264.5 12,178 1,375 1,332 2,695 2,600 2,378 1,798 327m2 396.7 7,325 318 316 615 765 1,076 4,235
3 2005-590,734 100.00 811,324 100.00 23m2 16.5 1,869 0.32 34,080 4.20 23~30m2 26.4 16,585 2.81 58,522 7.21 30~46m2 39.7 40,241 6.81 100,604 12.40 46~63m2 56.2 159,550 27.01 243,825 30.05 63~96m2 82.6 212,138 35.91 275,104 33.91 96~129m2 115.7 55,952 9.47 56,020 6.90 129~162m2 148.8 51,390 8.70 33,194 4.09 162~228m2 198.3 33,506 5.67 8,282 1.02 228~327m2 264.5 12,178 2.06 1,375 0.17 327m2 396.7 7,325 1.24 318 0.04 2005 237 7), 590, 1 4.02. 5,544 m2, 1 () 23.4m2, 1 93.9m2. < Ⅲ-19> 68.5m2. 2005 1 590,734 2,373,886 4.02 55,455,413 23.4 93.9 23m2 1,869 3,415 1.83 30,893 9.1 16.5 23~30m2 16,585 35,741 2.15 438,614 12.3 26.4 30~46m2 40,241 101,412 2.52 1,596,344 15.7 39.7 46~63m2 159,550 502,770 3.15 8,966,487 17.8 56.2 63~96m2 212,138 736,425 3.47 17,532,145 23.8 82.6 96~129m2 55,952 246,996 4.41 6,473,814 26.2 115.7 129~162 m2 51,390 269,102 5.24 7,644,828 28.4 148.8 162~228 m2 33,506 240,385 7.17 6,645,848 27.6 198.3 228~327 m2 12,178 127,934 10.51 3,220,643 25.2 264.5 327m2 7,325 109,708 14.98 879,000 26.5 396.7
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 2005 1.37 93.9 68.5 23m2 1.02 16.5 16.2 23~30m2 1.01 26.4 26.2 30~46m2 1.03 39.7 38.5 46~63m2 1.02 56.2 55.0 63~96m2 1.06 82.6 77.6 96~129m2 1.45 115.7 79.8 129~162 m2 1.73 148.8 86.2 162~228 m2 2.50 198.3 79.4 228~327 m2 4.02 264.5 65.8 327m2 7.46 396.7 53.2 1 1 2005 68.5 2.95 23.2-2007 69.8 2.86 24.4 102.3 2010 71.4 2.74 26.1 102.3 2012 71.6 2.66 26.9 101.5 2015 71.8 2.55 28.1 101.5 2017 71.9 2.49 28.9 101.3 2020 72.0 2.40 30.1 101.3 2005 68.5m2 1 23.2m2. 1 1995 16.5m2, 2000 19.8m2, 2005 23.1m2., 1 < Ⅲ-20> 2020 72.0m2 30.1m2.
3. < Ⅲ-21> < Ⅲ-22>, 2005 1 23.2m2.,,. 1 2 1 2 1 16.5 26.4 49.6 62.8 85.0 109.1 2 33.1 49.6 59.5 69.4 95.9 148.8 3 46.3 59.5 76.0 85.0 102.5 181.8 4 56.2 76.0 85.0 112.4 148.8 214.9 5 62.8 85.0 105.8 128.9 162.0 247.9 6 85.0 102.5 128.9 138.8 214.9 281.0 7 99.2 122.3 142.1 165.3 231.4 330.6 1 2 1 2 2005 25.0 27.0 25.0 12.0 8.0 3.0 2007 23.4 26.2 24.6 12.4 8.8 4.0 2010 21.0 25.0 24.0 13.0 10.0 7.0 2012 19.4 22.6 26.4 13.8 10.4 7.4 2015 17.0 19.0 30.0 15.0 11.0 8.0 2017 15.4 18.2 30.8 15.8 11.4 8.4 2020 14.4 17.7 31.3 16.4 11.7 8.7
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 1, 2 < Ⅲ-23>. 60 m2 60~ 85 m2 85 m2 2005 2007 2010 2012 2015 2017 2020 23 4.55 4.63 4.64 4.58 4.40 4.21 3.94 23~30 7.45 7.69 7.96 7.69 7.11 7.01 6.86 30~46 11.76 11.64 11.41 11.67 12.15 12.10 12.03 46~60 30.18 29.60 28.87 28.59 28.41 28.63 28.91 60~72 8.78 8.45 8.00 7.85 7.71 7.64 7.54 72~85 24.73 24.26 23.77 24.19 24.82 24.94 25.12 85~130 6.91 7.00 7.20 7.28 7.33 7.43 7.58 130~163 4.07 4.48 5.04 5.05 5.02 5.03 5.05 163~228 1.24 1.82 2.58 2.62 2.64 2.63 2.62 228 0.33 0.43 0.52 0.48 0.40 0.38 0.35,,. 8) < Ⅲ-24>. 1, 2 60m2. 60~85m2. 85m2 2010. 2005 2007 2010 2012 2015 2017 2020 60m2 53.9 53.6 52.9 52.5 52.1 51.9 51.7 60~85m2 33.5 32.7 31.8 32.0 32.5 32.6 32.7 85m2 12.5 13.7 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.6
3 < Ⅲ-25>. 2020 60m2 534 (51.7%). 60~85m2 337 (32.7%), 85m2 161 (15.6%). 60 m2 60~ 85 m2 85 m2 2005 2007 2010 2012 2015 2017 2020 856,487 877,329 924,791 948,403 991,180 1,007,567 1,032,607 23m2 38,970 40,620 42,910 43,437 43,612 42,419 40,685 23~30m2 63,808 67,467 73,613 72,932 70,473 70,630 70,837 30~46m2 100,723 102,121 105,519 110,679 120,428 121,916 124,223 46~60m2 258,489 259,690 266,988 271,148 281,694 288,466 298,525 461,989 469,897 489,029 498,196 516,206 523,431 534,270 (53.94) (53.56) (52.88) (52.53) (52.08) (51.95) (51.74) 60~72m2 75,200 74,134 73,983 74,450 76,420 76,978 77,859 72~85m2 211,809 212,840 219,915 229,419 246,011 251,287 259,391 287,009 286,974 293,898 303,869 322,431 328,265 337,250 (33.51) (32.71) (31.78) (32.04) (32.53) (32.58) (32.66) 85~130 m2 59,183 61,413 66,585 69,044 72,653 74,862 78,272 130~163 m2 34,859 39,304 46,609 47,894 49,757 50,681 52,147 163~228 m2 10,620 15,967 23,860 24,848 26,167 26,499 27,054 228 m2 2,826 3,773 4,809 4,552 3,965 3,829 3,614 107,488 120,457 141,863 146,338 152,542 155,871 161,087 (12.55) (13.73) (15.34) (15.43) (15.39) (15.47) (15.60). < Ⅲ-26> 2011 ~2015 13 60m2 5, 60~85m2 6, 85m2 2. 60m2 60~85m2 85m2 ~2011 11,262 4,366 4,795 2,101 ~2015 13,095 5,354 5,922 1,819 ~2017 7,982 3,346 2,900 1,736 ~2020 8,333 3,798 2,927 1,608
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 < Ⅲ-27>, < Ⅲ-28>., 60m2 10 45 (41.9%), 60~85m2 43 (40.3%), 85m2 19 (17.8%). 10 40%, 40%, 20%. 60 m2 60~ 85 m2 85 m2 2011 2015 2017 2020 11,262 13,095 7,982 8,333 23 m2 2.15-0.08-7.05-7.12 23~30 m2-3.68-7.08 0.74 0.72 30~46 m2 22.22 24.10 9.60 8.35 46~60 m2 18.08 23.95 38.63 43.63 38.77 40.89 41.92 45.58 60~72 m2 1.35 4.72 3.88 2.63 72~85 m2 41.23 40.50 32.45 32.50 42.58 45.22 36.33 35.13 85~130 m2 10.52 8.07 13.69 13.73 130~163 m2 5.04 4.27 6.29 5.05 163~228 m2 4.24 2.64 2.63 1.39 228 m2-1.15-1.09-0.86-0.88 18.65 13.89 21.75 19.29 60 m2 60~ 85 m2 85 m2 2011~2020 2011~2020 2011~2020 107,816 10,782 100-23 m2-2,225 23~30m2-2,776-278 -2.6 45,148 4,515 41.9 30~46m2 18,704 1,870 17.3 46~60 m2 31,445 3,145 29.2 60~72m2 3,876 388 3.6 43,444 4,344 40.3 72~85m2 39,568 3,957 36.7 85~130 m2 11,687 130~163 m2 5,538 554 5.1 19,224 1,922 17.8 163~228 m2 3,194 319 3-223 1,169 228 m2-1,195-120 -1.1-2.1 10.8
3 2011 2020 10. 10 108.. 1.. 2011 2020 10. 2010 491 2011 4.6. 2011~2020 10 150.
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 2008-2010 2011-2020 4,977 7,751 39% 62% 1,941 4,806 1 2.44 2.44 2,795 6,920 1,152 1,152 2.00 2.00 2,304 2,304 491 4,616. 1990..
3 10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 107,816 11,262 12,350 13,428 3,872 3,256 6,911 740 786 748 2014 2015 25,682 2,684 2,770 3,167 825 741 1,401 315 492 428 3,619 3,170 1,371 384 352 618 672 303 27,223 3,277 3,514 2,894 654 662 5,774 29 170 1,284 3,163 3,136 8,969 1,683 2,101 954 1,444 1,341 30,485 2,150 2,165 3,335 1,560 486 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 8,405 7,982 8,361 8,346 8,333 588 577 596 600 708 1,019 853 3,850 2,252 2,163-41 -92-274 -190-206 151 117-1,187-191 -203 1,335 1,249 3,857 2,355 2,363 326 237 383 262 242 384 365 1,037 199 67 4,643 4,676 99 3,059 3,199
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 153,975 16,084 17,637 19,813 22,577 18,701 9,870 1,057 1,122 1,071 1,178 1,058 36,677 3,833 3,956 4,716 5,168 4,527 2,001 450 703 603 960 433 1,958 548 503 903 934 945 38,878 4,680 5,018 4,247 4,517 4,479 8,246 41 243 1,914 2,062 1,915 12,809 2,404 3,000 1,552 2,228 694 43,536 3,071 3,092 4,807 5,530 4,650 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 12,003 11,399 11,941 11,919 11,901 840 824 851 857 1,011 1,455 1,218 5,498 3,216 3,089-59 -131-391 -271-294 216 167-1,695-273 -290 1,906 1,784 5,508 3,363 3,375 466 338 547 374 346 548 521 1,481 284 96 6,631 6,678 141 4,369 4,569
3. 108 60m2 41.9%, 60~85m2 40.3%, 17.8%. 2011~2020 15,398,. 60m2 23m2 23~30m2 30~46m2 46~60m2 2011~2020 107,816-2,225-2,776 18,704 31,445 10,782-223 -278 1,870 3,145 - -2.1-2.6 17.3 29.2 60~85m2 85m2 60~72 72~85m2 85~130m2 130~163m2 163~228m2 228m2 2011~2020 3,876 39,568 11,687 5,538 3,194-1,195 388 3,957 1,169 554 319-120 3.6 36.7 10.8 5.1 3.0-1.1 60m2 23m2 23~30m2 30~46m2 46~60m2 2011~2020 153,975-3,236-4,007 26,664 45,006 15,398-324 -401 2,666 4,501 - -2.1-2.6 17.3 29.2 60~85m2 85m2 60~72 72~85m2 85~130m2 130~163m2 163~228m2 228m2 2011~2020 5,549 56,564 16,646 7,861 4,624-1,696 555 5,656 1,665 786 462-170 3.6 36.7 10.8 5.1 3.0-1.1
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 9.,,,.. 2, 3, 4, 7, 1, (, ) 47..,. ( m2 ) () ( ) 64 14,365,615 90,412 279,396 2 199,502 2,330 7,513 3 5,542,037 17,865 54,236 4 4,178,471 19,658 58,632 7 2,095,433 19,312 62,669 1 1,085,498 2,905(13,276) 5,652 (, ) 47 1,264,674 19,047 60,950(*) - - 9,295 29,744(*)
3 ( m3 ) () ( ) 14,365,615 90,412 279,396 199,502 2,330 7,513 1 1 81 82,153 1,046 3,661 588-3 117,349 1,284 3,852 5,542,037 17,865 54,236 2 382,305 2,545 7,329, 943,236 7,287 23,609 (),,,,,,,, 4,216,496 8,033 23,298 4,178,471 19,658 58,632 2, 762,577 3,276 9,501, 909,368 3,748 10,495, 994,699 5,872 19,025,, 1,511,827 6,762 19,611 2,095,433 19,312 62,669 143,538 2,350 8,225 461,094 2,415 7,005 438,694 3,405 11,920 44,987 568 1,682 60,810 638 2,042(*) 705,860 7,411 23,715(*) 240,450 2,525 8,080(*) 1,4 1,085,498 2,905 5,652 (48) 1,264,674 19,047 60,950(*) - 9,295 29,744(*)
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 60 m2 60 m2 85 m2 85 m2 11. 9 9,861 (100%) 14 (0.1%) 2,258 (22.9%) 7,589 (77.0%) 11. 10 9,295 (100%) 9 (0.1%) 2,232 (24.0%) 7,054 (75.9%) 566 5 26 535 ( m2 ) 2 199,281 () 2,330 (7,513) 588-3 117,128 1,284 (3,852) '07 2~'12. 6 Ⅰ 1 81 82,153 1,046 (3,661) '06. 2~'12. 12 ( ) ( m2 ) () 3 5,542,037 17,865 (54,236) 2 382,305 2,545 (7,329) '05. 9 ~ '11. 10, 943,236 7,287 (23,609) '05. 10 ~ '12. 12 () 4,216,496 8,033 (23,298) '06. 10 ~ '12. 12
3 ( m2 ) () 4 4,178,471.4 19,658 (58,632) 2, 762,577.4 3,276 (9,501) '08. 11 ~ '14. 12, 909,368 3,748 (10,495) '09. 4 ~ '15. 12 994,699 5,872 (19,025) '05. 3 ~ '12. 06 1,511,827 6,762 (19,611) '07. 1 ~ '11. 12 ( m2 ) 7 2,095,433 () 19,312 (62,669) 143,538 2,350 (8,225) '94. 11 ~ '11. 8 461,094 2,415 (7,005) '96. 9 ~ '12. 8 438,694 3,405 (11,920) '05. 12 ~ '11. 12 44,987 568 (1,682) '06. 12 ~ '12. 12 60,810 638 (2,042)* '99. 4. 20 705,860 7,411 (23,715)* '99. 4. 20 ( ) 240,450 2,525 (8,080)* '99. 5. 14 ( )
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 ( m2 ) 714,497 16,220 14,292-3 1 2 1530 92,152 1,686 1,686 100% 10 34,484 652 652 100% 9 50,038 750 750 100% 702-1 19,433 445 445 100% 746 15,753 302 302 100% B4 26,976 394 394 100% 2 AK 521 28,667 657 657 100% 103 66,756 1,669 1,669 100% 1 1002 24,772 590 590 100% 2 1003 28,472 743 743 100% 3 990 55,927 1,479 1,479 100% 129-13 32,386 776 776 100% 424 32,509 767 767 100% 692-6 22,055 494 494 100% GS 557-1 33,437 854 512 60% 430-4 26,432 280 168 60% 1601 33,409 802 481 60% S 45-32 8,025 404 242 60% 558-1 15,189 672 403 60% 2499-5 38,444 946 568 60% 2 684-20 14,808 499 299 60% 970 14,373 359 215 60%
3 () ( m2 ) 550,177 11,889 4,755-2 2 2014-160(157) 13,697 258 103 40% 1 841-5(171) 18,339 337 135 40% 3 3 4-10(241) 27,616 675 270 40% 4 465-10(136) 21,636 451 180 40% 301-2 3,900 181 72 40% 81 320-1(2) 26,401 586 234 40% 4 75-2(3) 6,253 156 62 40% ( ) 4 281-4 5,887 138 55 40% 129-2 6,350 169 68 40% 1 1 249-139(471) 54,370 919 368 40% 4 996 6,072 125 50 40% 1 378 4,396 112 45 40% 162(7) 11,439 282 113 40% 510-3 45,561 720 288 40% (2 ) 27-17 49,861 930 372 40% 31-1(263) 36,474 832 333 40% 240 31,191 636 254 40% 150-2(136) 12,575 302 121 40% 4-6 2385-5(108) 16,608 328 131 40% 1-2 55-3(31) 18,665 487 195 40% 2-2 1783(459) 49,614 1,147 459 40% 2-3 1916(204) 19,316 433 173 40% 3 26-1(250) 28,309 730 292 40% 77 1 23-1 7,758 298 119 40% 300-1(1) 27,889 657 263 40%
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망 15 9 10 6. 6.. 2010 5 273 51, 2.1km2 10. 51 22,771 39,791. 17,020. 2.1km2 17,020. 5:5 5 3. 10 6.
3 10(2011 2020 ) 15. 2017. 107 46.,,. 2017. (60 m2) 42% (85m2) 40%. (85m2) 18%. 2017 3% 2017 7%., 10%. 2020 15.,.
주택정책의과제와방향
4 제 4 장주택정책의과제와방향 2011....... 3.....
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망......
4 2020 15 42%, 40% 80%.,,. 2020.,.,......,.
대구시주택시장동향과수급전망..,.,..
4...........
참고문헌 (2009), 2015,. (2008), - - -, ( ) 24(2), 245-252. (2008),. (2008), ;, 315, 14-20. (2008),. (2007),,, 297-300. (2006), :,. (2005),, 40(3), 37-46. (2003),, 38(6), 61-74. (2002),,. (2001),.